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[THE J0KER]

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[THE J0KER]

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[THE J0KER]

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[Abs0ul13]

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Thanks for these! Do you have an update after last nights games?

[THE J0KER]

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[ken6199]

I see the prediction model only takes into account the recent trend but not some of the potential incentives.

For HOU to finish above POR, even assuming HOU win out, POR need to lose at least 2 games. Not 1, but 2 because of owning the tie breaker. Looking at their schedule, you have to assume both of those losses will com from their B2B vs DEN, and that's a big if.

Also in a different scenario if GS drops to 2nd, HOU might very well tank the season finale in OKC, to 1) avoid a GS-HOU 2-3 bracket, 2) to send OKC up to 7th to set up a GS-OKC 1st round. We'll know better next Tuesday.

I just see HOU finish at 4th as a more realistic outcome. I think this is overlooked a lot as people look at their remaining schedule and the first impression is, soft.

[THE J0KER]

I see the prediction model only takes into account the recent trend but not some of the potential incentives.

For HOU to finish above POR, even assuming HOU win out, POR need to lose at least 2 games. Not 1, but 2 because of owning the tie breaker. Looking at their schedule, you have to assume both of those losses will com from their B2B vs DEN, and that's a big if.

Also in a different scenario if GS drops to 2nd, HOU might very well tank the season finale in OKC, to 1) avoid a GS-HOU 2-3 bracket, 2) to send OKC up to 7th to set up a GS-OKC 1st round. We'll know better next Tuesday.

I just see HOU finish at 4th as a more realistic outcome. I think this is overlooked a lot as people look at their remaining schedule and the first impression is, soft.

Actually today Portland game in Detroit is probably key ones. Pistons need that home win, and Portland playing without McCollum and Nurkic.



H2H tie break:

[ken6199]

I see the prediction model only takes into account the recent trend but not some of the potential incentives.

For HOU to finish above POR, even assuming HOU win out, POR need to lose at least 2 games. Not 1, but 2 because of owning the tie breaker. Looking at their schedule, you have to assume both of those losses will com from their B2B vs DEN, and that's a big if.

Also in a different scenario if GS drops to 2nd, HOU might very well tank the season finale in OKC, to 1) avoid a GS-HOU 2-3 bracket, 2) to send OKC up to 7th to set up a GS-OKC 1st round. We'll know better next Tuesday.

I just see HOU finish at 4th as a more realistic outcome. I think this is overlooked a lot as people look at their remaining schedule and the first impression is, soft.

Actually today Portland game in Detroit is probably key ones. Pistons need that home win, and Portland playing without McCollum and Nurkic.



H2H tie break:

Just realized GS 2-1 up on Denver. If they tied up at 2-2, almost identical conf and div record, both division leaders, that tie breaker could come down to like 5th criterion.

[THE J0KER]

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[THE J0KER]

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[THE J0KER]

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The week before the end of the regular season check-point:
EAST 4th seed battle: DEAD RACE
EAST playoff race: DEAD RACE
WEST TOP3 race: Denver lost #1 battle, but now even #2 seed is in danger
WEST #6-#8 seeding: DEAD RACE

[THE J0KER]

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- Celtics won race vs Pacers for #4 seed on the East
- Miami odds to reach playoff falls fast after losing 3 straight games
- In-form Houston fighting with Denver for Western #2 seed, but also for #3 seed with Portland
- Utah won last 7, secured TOP5, and now fighting with Portland for #4 seed
- The race for #6-#8 seeds will be uncertain until last game on East and West both

[ken6199]

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The way I read it - Denver tanking that game gives Portland a chance to finish higher, and also bet on Houston losing the OKC game, so it pushes Houston to 4th. Dream scenario for Denver.

It also makes Utah have nothing to play for (stuck at 5 seed) when they meet Denver, which means Utah might rest players too.

1 stone 3 birds. Smart move.

Edit: Just realized Utah has tie breaker over Portland. With 1 game back and 2 games left - I think they go all out vs Denver regardless. The HCA is at stake for Utah, they will at least give themselves a chance even if Portland will likely win out.

[THE J0KER]

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Houston - @Oklahoma in Tuesday is a showdown of the regular season! If Houston wins Oklahoma most probably will face Golden State already in the 1st round of the playoff and Houston have chances to reach #2 seed on the West if Denver loses one of remaining two games (including @Utah). But if OKC beat HOU, Portland can overtake Houston in WC#3 seed race by beating two WC lottery teams, in which case OKC can face Portland in the first round as #6 seed on the West by beating Bucks in the last game. But in such scenario, if Utah loses both two last games, Oklahoma can rise to 5th seed (and face Houston, or Blazers if Portland chokes). So, if Oklahoma beat Houston there is the scenario for Thunder before last game that wins vs Bucks means #5 seed, but the loss means #8 seed!

On the East, don't be fooled by these percentages from CBS and 538 sites about chances to reach the playoff, because they are obviously not already updated tonight. After Detroit and Miami 4 straight loses and Hornets winning last 3 games, Charlotte needs one another Detroit loss in last two games to gram #8 spot right from nowhere!

[THE J0KER]

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[Stray Dog]

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[XtremeDunkz]

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