Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

[Illmatic12]

Meh, I think Atlanta thinks they're set at the 2, and Morant might end up being a better all-around pairing with Doncic than Beal, because someone has to defend PG's.

I doubt Atlanta feels set at any starting position other than PG. Huerter is a nice rotation player but doesn’t project to be an elite shot creator. They still need another ball handler who can take pressure off of Trae, ideally that would be an elite 2-guard.

Morant at this point can’t defend his own shadow. And I don’t see why Dallas would want him when they just had issues with another ball-dominant non shooting PG (Dennis Smith Jr) trying to be the star of the show and not meshing with the Doncic centric offense. Rick Carlisle would tear Morant a new one

Almost all Mavs fans I’ve seen think Doncic needs to play with an off-ball guard who’s a great 3pt shooter

John Collins? And this is what they return next year... Clearly BPA but a slant to a SF?

Code: Select all

PG    Young      
SG    Huerter   Bazemore   Bembry
SF    Prince      
PF    Collins   Spellman   
C     Plumlee   Len   

Collins is a really poor frontcourt defender.. he has a t-Rex wingspan and struggles to have an impact in the paint. It’s tough to build a core where you know that the two main guys are guaranteed to be defensive liabilities (Young + Collins) .

That’s why I don’t think they’re necessarily tied to Collins or Huerter longterm. Trae is clearly the centerpiece, and when it gets time for them to seriously compete for playoffs Atlanta may want to reshape their supporting cast to be more defensive-focused

[dckingsfan]

I doubt Atlanta feels set at any starting position other than PG. Huerter is a nice rotation player but doesn’t project to be an elite shot creator. They still need another ball handler who can take pressure off of Trae, ideally that would be an elite 2-guard.

Morant at this point can’t defend his own shadow. And I don’t see why Dallas would want him when they just had issues with another ball-dominant non shooting PG (Dennis Smith Jr) trying to be the star of the show and not meshing with the Doncic centric offense. Rick Carlisle would tear Morant a new one

Almost all Mavs fans I’ve seen think Doncic needs to play with an off-ball guard who’s a great 3pt shooter

John Collins? And this is what they return next year... Clearly BPA but a slant to a SF?

Code: Select all

PG    Young      
SG    Huerter   Bazemore   Bembry
SF    Prince      
PF    Collins   Spellman   
C     Plumlee   Len   

Collins is a really poor frontcourt defender.. he has a t-Rex wingspan and struggles to have an impact in the paint. It’s tough to build a core where you know that the two main guys are guaranteed to be defensive liabilities (Young + Collins) .

That’s why I don’t think they’re necessarily tied to Collins or Huerter longterm. Trae is clearly the centerpiece, and when it gets time for them to seriously compete for playoffs Atlanta may want to reshape their supporting cast to be more defensive-focused

Ah, so you are looking out 2-3 years, makes sense. Do you think Collins will improve his D by then?

[Illmatic12]

John Collins? And this is what they return next year... Clearly BPA but a slant to a SF?

Code: Select all

PG    Young      
SG    Huerter   Bazemore   Bembry
SF    Prince      
PF    Collins   Spellman   
C     Plumlee   Len   

Collins is a really poor frontcourt defender.. he has a t-Rex wingspan and struggles to have an impact in the paint. It’s tough to build a core where you know that the two main guys are guaranteed to be defensive liabilities (Young + Collins) .

That’s why I don’t think they’re necessarily tied to Collins or Huerter longterm. Trae is clearly the centerpiece, and when it gets time for them to seriously compete for playoffs Atlanta may want to reshape their supporting cast to be more defensive-focused

Ah, so you are looking out 2-3 years, makes sense. Do you think Collins will improve his D by then?

Well my thought process is for projecting some of these cores is - what does their next playoff contending team look like and who is on the roster?

I think Collins will improve , but probably not to the point where the Young-Collins pairing isn’t one of the worst PnR defenses in the league. This will probably be a talking point with the Hawks for a while. Landing Zion would be very interesting for them as I think you’d have to move Collins right away, and he would have a lot of value to teams where he fits.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Yes, I like Beal too. I watched him at Florida because I was determined he was going to be our pick. I really wanted him, I thought he would fit perfectly with Wall. And he has been everything we could hope for, and yes he is a perfect player to have on a roster as far as intangible.

But, SG in my opinion, is the least important position on the team. It used to be relied on for scoring, and especially outside shooting, and 3s.

But now you get that from every position. SG isn't as relevant anymore. It's not a position you usually get rebounding or strong defense from. It's not the lead guard handling the ball, distributing, running the offense. It's not usually setting screens, or much else from setting up at the 3 and waiting for the ball, and now you get that from everyone.

SG is a position that can be replaced fairly easily.

Beal really isn't waiting for the ball from anyone. He's playing a hybrid guard and doing it well too.

Yeah...and isn't the player who may be on the verge of winning back-to-back NBA MVPs a shooting guard? In fact, the kind of hybrid SG that BB has become.

You're absolutely right, Shoe, there are a helluva lot of on- and off-court reasons to rebuild the Zards around Beal.

That's fine. But IMO we will never win with a team built around Bradley Beal as our star and focal point of the team.

But he is a high character guy which I like so it will be nice to root for him for the next several years win or lose.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

From BULLETS FOREVER


At least some Wizards fans want Bradley Beal to shut it down. But Beal would like to keep playing. He would want his own supermax contract too.
Bradley Beal is still playing heavy minutes despite the fact that the Wizards have slim playoff hopes mathematically. So ... why is Brad playing? Is Ernie Grunfeld trying to make Wizards fans suffer more?

Nope. Beal obviously wants to play and keep the Wizards in the playoff hunt until the end. But he also has a personal interest to keep playing and keep being a great option for fantasy basketball junkies. If he makes an All-NBA Team, it will go a long way toward helping him make a case to get a supermax by the Wizards.


Beal could earn a supermax because he is still on a contract with just one team, that team being the Wizards. The earliest he could get it is after he completes his eighth NBA season. After the 2019-20 NBA season, he could earn such a salary which is 35 percent of the soft salary cap. If Beal can make an All-NBA team this season, there is certainly a chance that the Wizards will extend a supermax extension to him, just like they did to Wall in the 2017 NBA offseason.

That said, Beal will almost definitely NOT get into the All-NBA team if the Wizards refuse to play him for the rest of this season. Furthermore, they’ve already seen that John Wall’s supermax contract is likely going to be a disastrous supermax deal — even before it STARTS to take effect in the 2019-20 NBA season. In fact, the Wizards were rumored to be shopping him around to anyone who would want him in the 2018-19 season until he ruptured his Achilles tendon.

And finally, if Beal does make an All-NBA team, will the Wizards offer him a supermax? After all, they offered Wall the same thing and that contract already looks like a franchise killer rather than an enabler. If Beal doesn’t get into the All-NBA team after playing a full season, this topic will be moot. But if he does, then the Wizards will be put into a bind this summer.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Yes, I like Beal too. I watched him at Florida because I was determined he was going to be our pick. I really wanted him, I thought he would fit perfectly with Wall. And he has been everything we could hope for, and yes he is a perfect player to have on a roster as far as intangible.

But, SG in my opinion, is the least important position on the team. It used to be relied on for scoring, and especially outside shooting, and 3s.

But now you get that from every position. SG isn't as relevant anymore. It's not a position you usually get rebounding or strong defense from. It's not the lead guard handling the ball, distributing, running the offense. It's not usually setting screens, or much else from setting up at the 3 and waiting for the ball, and now you get that from everyone.

SG is a position that can be replaced fairly easily.

Beal really isn't waiting for the ball from anyone. He's playing a hybrid guard and doing it well too.

Yeah...and isn't the player who may be on the verge of winning back-to-back NBA MVPs a shooting guard? In fact, the kind of hybrid SG that BB has become.

You're absolutely right, Shoe, there are a helluva lot of on- and off-court reasons to rebuild the Zards around Beal.

The issue isn't whether or not Beal is a good player, although part of the point is that he's not a top 5 player... Is he top 10 ? The issue isn't can he do combo guard stuff, although IMO to consider him a combo guard is a stretch... The issue isn't is he a nice guy, or does he work hard, or is he a good teammate, or a good locker room guy, or give to charity, or love his mom, etc.

The issue is how much money he makes. How much he makes next season, a season we have zero chance to win. How much money he makes in addition to how much John Wall makes. And more importantly how much he is GOING to make.

[wco81]

Issue is how much the Wizards are willing to pay, whether they will go into the luxury tax if players they draft and develop can command big contracts.

They gave Porter a huge deal and then traded him, since the team underperformed.

And looks like they traded Oubre because they weren't going to pay what he was going to be able to get.

Maybe they'll draft another high lottery pick who will turn out to be an all star or borderline like Porter was. Then they will face the same dilemma in 4-5 years.

[DCZards]

SUPERBALLMAN, it's hard to take your arguments regarding Beal seriously when you've been all over the place...sometimes contradicting what you said the day before. (See below).

First, it's the possibility that Beal could go down with an injury, then he's undersized, not a good ballhandler, etc., then you turn around and say Beal "has been everything we could hope for," and follow that up with the declaration that it's really about his contract.

Ok so let's say we put our eggs into the Beal basket... Now what happens if he goes down with stress injuries in his ankles or worse... Then we have 2 max contracts on the bench and no team.

I think you are over valuing Beal. He is undersized for his position. He is not a good ball handler. He is terrible defensively. He is neutralized by bigger more athletic defenders, see Demar Derozan. He's not an explosively athletic player. Right now he's putting up big numbers on a bad team. Just like Jabari Parker.

Yes, I like Beal too. I watched him at Florida because I was determined he was going to be our pick. I really wanted him, I thought he would fit perfectly with Wall. And he has been everything we could hope for, and yes he is a perfect player to have on a roster as far as intangible.

The issue is how much money he makes. How much he makes next season, a season we have zero chance to win. How much money he makes in addition to how much John Wall makes. And more importantly how much he is GOING to make.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

SUPERBALLMAN, it's hard to take your arguments regarding Beal seriously when you've been all over the place...sometimes contradicting what you said the day before. (See below).

First, it's the possibility that Beal could go down with an injury, then he's undersized, not a good ballhandler, etc., then you turn around and say Beal "has been everything we could hope for," and follow that up with the declaration that it's really about his contract.

Ok so let's say we put our eggs into the Beal basket... Now what happens if he goes down with stress injuries in his ankles or worse... Then we have 2 max contracts on the bench and no team.

I think you are over valuing Beal. He is undersized for his position. He is not a good ball handler. He is terrible defensively. He is neutralized by bigger more athletic defenders, see Demar Derozan. He's not an explosively athletic player. Right now he's putting up big numbers on a bad team. Just like Jabari Parker.

Yes, I like Beal too. I watched him at Florida because I was determined he was going to be our pick. I really wanted him, I thought he would fit perfectly with Wall. And he has been everything we could hope for, and yes he is a perfect player to have on a roster as far as intangible.

The issue is how much money he makes. How much he makes next season, a season we have zero chance to win. How much money he makes in addition to how much John Wall makes. And more importantly how much he is GOING to make.

Well, all these things can be true...

But the bottom line is this...

We are paying him how much next season with no chance of winning?

Then 20/21 is his last season under his current deal. We extend him or lose him. At his point is when super max eligibility enters the equation.

Is long term commitment to Beal at this point what We want ? We already have a super max with Wall. IMO this is what you do (super max, build team around player) if you have a top 5 player such as Lebron, KD, Steph, Westbrook, Harden). Is Beal in this catergory? Is he top 10?

I mean I'm talking about the money.... I'm not sure where I'm losing you??

We already have a max with Wall. We are not going to win next year.

This is why I'm saying the course of action i would pursue is to deal Beal for draft picks, so we obtain players that first and foremost are rookie contracts, and 2nd are hopefully potential top ten eventual talents, which I don't think Beal will ever be. And if and when they reach the point of super max or long term high salary commitment we are out of the Wall business, and in a better place to move forward with a team capable of actually winning instead of this mess we have now. Instead of locking into Beal as our franchise guy, with no way to substantially improve the team around him.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

And as I've also said before, it's all moot, because my expectation is We will continue with Beal and Wall.

We will extend and super max Beal. Wall will return and play out his contract here and hopefully rehab to 90%.

We will draft in hopes of hitting a home run complementary piece to form a new big 3. Parker, Portis, Bryant, Ariza will go to higher offers elsewhere.

We will retain Sato, Dekker, Randle, McRae, to join Brown Jr and Mahinmi. I'm not sure about Howard or Green, but I expect them to pursue better situations.

This is my expectation.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I would offer Beal a 30% max extension if he makes All-NBA. That's still a great offer, better than waiting for free agency. As a free agent, he could only get 30% with 4.5% raises. We are offering 30% with 7.5% raises (at a minimum, the raises will be as much as the cap raises each year). And we are offering him the security of locking in that deal right now, 2 years before his new contract.

Tell Beal he isn't getting 35% right now because the Wizards are taking on the risk that he won't get seriously hurt over the next two years (like Wall did), and that risk is costing him 5%. If Beal wants the full 35%, he needs to wait until Summer 2021.

Conventional wisdom...fail.

I'd tell Beal we already have overpaid Wall. Ja Morant is a great kid and he is pretty good, maybe even better already than John Wall.

Beal is rich and he has been a great Wizard. I think the Wizards need to tell Beal he can help the team by standing pat for now.

No raise or new deal for now. Expect a tremendous trade.

Sent from my SM-J337T using RealGM mobile app

All these scenarios involving trading Beal will depend on us getting good value in a trade. Teams almost never get good value when trading away a young star who is All-NBA caliber.

I'm perfectly willing to shop Beal. The problem is, most teams in "win now" mode lack the type of quality picks that we would want in return. I'm not trading him for a bunch of late 1st round picks.

There is a Jimmy Butler or Khris Middleton as well as a Brandon Clarke in the late first round; when you know who to select.

I look at Bradley as a guy who is at the top of his value and he's not taking a pay cut. John Wall's deal is the reason I'd be very willing to move Beal.

Sent from my SM-J337T using RealGM mobile app

[nate33]

There is a Jimmy Butler or Khris Middleton as well as a Brandon Clarke in the late first round; when you know who to select.

I look at Bradley as a guy who is at the top of his value and he's not taking a pay cut. John Wall's deal is the reason I'd be very willing to move Beal.

Sent from my SM-J337T using RealGM mobile app

29 GM's missed on Jimmy Butler. If you trade Beal for a late pick, you are not getting the next Jimmy Butler. You are getting a 1-in-29 chance at the next Jimmy Butler. You are more likely to end up with Norris Cole or JaJuan Johnson. Would you want to be the GM that traded Bradley Beal for JaJuan Johnson?

I do like Brandon Clarke, but I don't think he is going to last that long in the draft. I'd take him with our pick at #8. I don't think he lasts past #12.

[nate33]

And as I've also said before, it's all moot, because my expectation is We will continue with Beal and Wall.

We will extend and super max Beal. Wall will return and play out his contract here and hopefully rehab to 90%.

We will draft in hopes of hitting a home run complementary piece to form a new big 3. Parker, Portis, Bryant, Ariza will go to higher offers elsewhere.

We will retain Sato, Dekker, Randle, McRae, to join Brown Jr and Mahinmi. I'm not sure about Howard or Green, but I expect them to pursue better situations.

This is my expectation.

They'll keep Bryant. There aren't going to be a lot of high offers for a center with suspect defense. Very few teams need a center. Also, the Gilbert Arenas Provision applies. Nobody can offer Bryant a deal that pays more than the MLE over the next two years.

[DCZards]

This is why I'm saying the course of action i would pursue is to deal Beal for draft picks, so we obtain players that first and foremost are rookie contracts, and 2nd are hopefully potential top ten eventual talents, which I don't think Beal will ever be. And if and when they reach the point of super max or long term high salary commitment we are out of the Wall business, and in a better place to move forward with a team capable of actually winning instead of this mess we have now. Instead of locking into Beal as our franchise guy, with no way to substantially improve the team around him.

I get it. Rather than build around a young, proven, top 20 player you'd prefer to trade him for some mid- to late-first round picks with the hope that one of them might eventually become a top ten talent. I guess we'll have to disagree on that approach.

IMO, your approach is likely to result in a bunch of average players on inexpensive contracts winning 25 games a year for the next several seasons. I’ll take my chances with Beal.

[payitforward]

...You're absolutely right, Shoe, there are a helluva lot of on- and off-court reasons to rebuild the Zards around Beal.

The issue isn't whether or not Beal is a good player, ...The issue isn't can he do combo guard stuff... The issue isn't is he a nice guy, or does he work hard, ...The issue is how much money he makes. How much he makes next season, a season we have zero chance to win. How much money he makes in addition to how much John Wall makes. And more importantly how much he is GOING to make.

That's closer to the issue, yes. But, not clear enough.

First off, how good Bradley Beal is -- how good any player is, for that matter, outside of the top 3-4 superstars in the league -- has nothing whatever to do with whether you trade him. The trade market takes care of that -- the better a player is the more you get for him.

IOW, the decision to trade Brad should depend on entirely different considerations. It should have nothing to do with how good he is.

It comes down to this: to use Dat's altogether accurate description, "the cupboard is bare." The Wizards don't have a lot of talent. To get to seven guys who will be able to play next year (i.e. a total of eight - John being out) will cost us @$104m:

a. Brad, Brown, Wall, Mahinmi: $84m
b. Sato, Bryant, Dekker: $16m (estimate)
c. 2019 R1 pick: $4.2m (if we pick #8)

That would leave us @$4m under the cap -- but 6 guys short of the roster minimum. This year, those other 6 guys are Parker, Portis, Ariza, Green, Howard & Randle. Combined, those 6 guys make $45m. Suppose for a moment that we were able to keep all those guys for $25m -- that won't be possible, but consider it for a moment.

We've got our roster! It features only one change from the well below .500 team of this year (the rookie). Every team gets a pick every year. That's not "rebuilding" -- in fact, we haven't taken any meaningful step in rebuilding.

On top of which, I believe you see that as a team that can post a .500 record, maybe even a little better -- I think that's what you've written. So... no lottery pick the following year. Once again no way to add significant young talent (i.e. no way to rebuild).

Of course, instead of bringing back those 6 guys, we could fill the roster w/ veteran minimum players -- we could get worse than we are this year. In that case, we'd have a lottery pick again in 2020. How much better would that team become by adding 1 lottery pick?

In other words, "rebuild around Bradley Beal" equals rebuild to become a team that's average, maybe slightly better than average at our peak.

Why? Why not trade Brad, get as many & as high picks as we possibly can, & actually rebuild from the ground up?

With the goal of competing for a title, not mediocrity.

[NYG]

What coaches would the Wizards want if they let Brooks go?

[dangermouse]

Certainly warmed to the idea of a trade down to get Clarke + some other picks. He could slot in right away at PF and I think our team would be instantly better.

[Ruzious]

Certainly warmed to the idea of a trade down to get Clarke + some other picks. He could slot in right away at PF and I think our team would be instantly better.

One amazing stat that shows why Clarke won't last past 6 in the draft - He has 105 missed FGA's on the season, and he has 107 blocks. It is literally unbelievable that a player who averages 24.5 points per 40 minutes has more blocked shots than missed field goals.

[payitforward]

This is why I'm saying the course of action i would pursue is to deal Beal for draft picks, so we obtain players that first and foremost are rookie contracts, and 2nd are hopefully potential top ten eventual talents, which I don't think Beal will ever be. And if and when they reach the point of super max or long term high salary commitment we are out of the Wall business, and in a better place to move forward with a team capable of actually winning instead of this mess we have now. Instead of locking into Beal as our franchise guy, with no way to substantially improve the team around him.

I get it. Rather than build around a young, proven, top 20 player you'd prefer to trade him for some mid- to late-first round picks with the hope that one of them might eventually become a top ten talent. I guess we'll have to disagree on that approach.

IMO, your approach is likely to result in a bunch of average players on inexpensive contracts winning 25 games a year for the next several seasons. I’ll take my chances with Beal.

Zards, it seems to me that you might at least respond to what SBM is actually saying. Which is NOT that we ought to trade Beal "for some mid- to late-first round picks."

He is saying that, given our current situation, we need to start over -- "obtain players that first and foremost are rookie contracts, and 2nd are hopefully potential top ten eventual talents" (i.e. 1 or more among them have that level of potential).

As to the risk of becoming a 25-game winner, right now we're a 30-game winner. Maybe we'll get to 32 or 33 by season's end? Moreover, what's our future?

How long ago was it that we were better than the Hornets, Nets, Sixers, Bucks, Pistons & Magic? How long before Atlanta passes us? That's an easy question to answer: they'll pass us next year. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise. Moreover, the Bulls have stocked themselves with young, improving players -- they have a ways to go to be good, but since we are dropping like a stone they might well pass us year after next -- if not next year.

So, if we "rebuild around Beal" (which is in any case impossible), how do we in fact "rebuild" at all?

If all goes well, (i.e. if we are able to retain Sato/Bryant/Dekker for $15m & if Ernie doesn't trade away our R1 pick), we'll have 7 guys we can put on the floor next year for $104m -- 1 rookie plus 6 guys from our post-trade deadline team -- the team that's gone 8-13 playing a weak schedule.

Lets assume we get Culver or Hunter. If I remember right, those are your 2 favorite guys -- if not, assume anyone you'd prefer (but not Zion! ).

Starting there, what would be the way to "rebuild around Beal?"

[Illmatic12]

Honestly it's hard to discuss the Wizards future until the following situations are resolved

1) we see what happens with the GM position
2) we find out whether Beal qualifies for All-NBA (and supermax) or not
3) we have the results of the draft lottery

All three of those situations have drastic impact on the longterm future of the franchise. There's a lot hanging in the balance that we won't have clarity on for another 1-2 months