2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

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And he hits a homer in his first AB. Later adds a 2-run single. Threw out a base stealer, too

[dagger]

Another quality start for Patrick Murphy at NH this morning. 7IP, 1R, 1ER, 3H, 1BB, 10K. Had 9K through five innings. The one run was a first inning homer. ERA to 3.35. Pitch count was 84-56, and presumably he could have come out for the eighth inning if needed, but the Fisher Cats were up 9-1.

Murphy has mid-90s FB velocity, but if he makes it in the majors, it may be because of a good breaking ball

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Murphy is already on the 40 man roster, so it wouldn't surprise me if he's promoted after a few more starts with the possibility of a September callup.

Here's MLB Pipeline's profile of him for those who haven't been paying attention to him

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45

Murphy was viewed as a bit of wild card heading into the 2013 Draft after Tommy John surgery had wiped out his entire senior season at Hamilton (Ariz.) High. Intrigued by Murphy's upside, the Blue Jays selected him in the third round and convinced him to sign for $500,000, $150,000 less than his pick value. But the right-hander experienced numbness in his arm and hand when he got back on the mound, prompting surgeons to treat him for thoracic outlet syndrome by removing one of his ribs to alleviate a pinched nerve. When his symptoms failed to improve, Murphy had a nerve removed from his elbow. After making a healthy return in 2016 and building up his workload the following year, Murphy broke out in earnest in 2018, earning Pitcher of the Year honors in the Florida State League before a late bump to Double-A. The Blue Jays added Murphy to their 40-man roster after the season.

Big and strong, Murphy will sit at 92-95 mph and touch 97, throwing his heater with downhill plane and sinking action that makes him difficult to barrel. His power curveball flashes plus, registering at 75-79 mph with tight spin and late bite, and he shows feel for throwing a firm changeup that improved as the season played out. What's more, Murphy racked up more strikeouts in 2018 (8.4 K/9) than at any point in his career and led all Minor League hurlers (140 IP min.) with a 59.1 percent ground-ball rate.

More important than the results, Murphy stayed healthy for the entire season, accruing 152 2/3 innings across 27 starts. There are a range of outcomes in projecting Murphy's development, but more and more the signs are pointing to a bright future for him as a Nos. 4 or 5 starter.

2019
EAS

Team W L ERA G GS SV IP H HR BB K AVG WHIP GO/AO
NH (AA) 2 4 3.35 8 8 0 45.2 31 4 12 49 .181 0.94 1.58
Minors 2 4 3.35 8 8 0 45.2 31 4 12 49 .181 0.94 1.58

[BigLeagueChew]

Picked up Jimmy Cordero from the Nats and sent to Buffalo. Played for the Jays before 2015 in the minors.

"98 mph heat and managed an 11.8% swinging-strike rate" but also a high walk rate.

[polo007]

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BUFFALO, N.Y. – On Monday, the Buffalo Bisons had an off-day so Anthony Alford popped over to Toronto to enjoy the city and escape from baseball. While there, he sent a text to Randal Grichuk, who was across the continent in San Francisco ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays’ series against the San Francisco Giants, just to say hey.

The two have gotten to know each other during camp the past two springs, and the chat quickly turned to their seasons. Grichuk knew Alford endured a tough April, one that included a dismal stretch with an .197 OPS. How are you feeling now, he asked, before offering his fellow outfielder some encouragement, some words that resonated.

“You can’t get caught up in five at-bats or 10 at-bats, even in 20 at-bats,” Alford says outside the Sahlen Field clubhouse Wednesday before going 1-for-4 with a run scored in Buffalo’s 6-2 loss to the Gwinnett Stripers. “If you’re getting 550-600 at-bats a year, if you allow that stretch to determine how you feel when you show up the next day, 10 or 15 at-bats turn into a 70 at-bat struggle, which I feel like I just went through.

“Look at Grich last year, he was hitting .100 at the end of April and then he came back, he had a reset mentally and he started banging and it turned his season around. It just shows, hey, it’s still early. I still have a long time to recover, I have a long time to make those adjustments.”

A mechanical adjustment to his swing at the end of April has, in large part, allowed him to stabilize at the plate. Working with hitting coach Corey Hart and coach Devon White, Alford identified a hitch in his backside that caused his bat to travel through the zone with an upwards lurch, rather than a more optimal flat path.

It explained why, “I was swinging through pitches I should be crushing,” said Alford, and as he struggled with his feel in the box, his mind started working more during plate appearances, “to a point where I wasn’t seeing the ball.”

“Whenever you’re thinking OK, my hands should be here, I should go like this, I should start now, the ball comes in like a blur – I’m thinking so much it clouds my vision,” he explained. “Now my focus is down to, be early and see the ball. Those are the only things I’m worried about right now. I feel like I can be athletic enough if I can just get my front foot down and if I can see the ball, I can get myself in position to barrel a ball.”

So Alford has been working to get his mind and swing right and has made sure to chase barrels rather than hits. He’s focused on making daily contributions to the team and not worrying about the numbers, an issue Bisons manager Bobby Meacham feels has impacted a number of players on the roster.

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[vaff87]

This Nick Allgeyer guy in Dunedin seems to be doing well.

[Schad]

Kevin Smith has rebounded a bit from his 11-game hitless streak, going 7 for his last 16 with 2 HRs and 2 doubles. His numbers on the year are still cataclysmic, but it's the faintest ray of hope.

On Allgeyer, he's the very definition of a pitchability lefty. Those guys often fly through A ball, only to run into serious problems in the upper minors, but some do prove to have the command and stuff to live at 90. If that comment results in you being tempted to look up Matt Boyd's numbers at this time, please do not.

[vaff87]

Ryan Noda went 0-5 tonight with 5 K’s.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

Not for the first time, I wonder what the internal plan is with regard to Hagen Danner. He had a solid year in Bluefield last season, but he's striking out 34% of the time in Lansing, and he's currently mired in a 1 for 32 run with 0 walks and 17 Ks.

Certainly, nothing is imminent (and his power is real), but if his swing remains this full of holes, I'm curious whether he's given an offseason mandate to shake off the rust on the mound.

[dagger]

Interesting development with Yennsy Diaz. He’s now thrown 15 consecutive shutout innings, with signs of better control. Control was always his issue. The fastball/curve combo he offers profiles as major league, certainly in the bullpen but increasingly as a backend starter.. Along with Pearson and Murphy, the New Hampshire rotation is interesting to watch, as any of those three could reach the majors by 2020.


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[gundysmullet]

As someone who knows virtually, no literally, nothing about the inner workings of how these decisions are made, is it remotely feasible that Pearson and Murphy could be called up to the bluejays in late September? They seem like very exciting number one and number two starters.

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As someone who knows virtually, no literally, nothing about the inner workings of how these decisions are made, is it remotely feasible that Pearson and Murphy could be called up to the bluejays in late September? They seem like very exciting number one and number two starters.

Remotely feasible - or remotely likely?

In a vacuum, sure for Murphy and Diaz, both of whom are age-wise appropriate and have had the innings buildup over the past few seasons to keep pitching into September. Pearson is likely to be brought along more carefully because of his missed season and the fact he hasn't had the same kind of innings buildup. Pearson also has the highest ceiling, throws the hardest, and I'd bet they have an innings target for him they won't exceed. As for operating outside of the vacuum for Murphy and Diaz, I'd say they may earn promotions before too much longer - BUF's staff is weak, so it's not like they would be complicating the process of developing any of those guys. And Harris and Zeuch ought to be ready soon to at least start at NH, so there is that to consider. Beyond that, a lot depends on how they want to approach the future of Stroman and Sanchez. Clayton Richard will be back in the rotation shortly. Trent Thornton is a starter, Ryan Borucki is theoretically returning next month and they have Clay Buckholz and Edwin Jackson as placeholder/inning eaters. So they can move Murphy and Diaz forward as aggressively or conservatively as they like. If they trade Stro or Sanchez, or tire of the placeholders, or if Borucki's return turns into 2020, or some combination thereof, that might open up a 2019 pathway for someone.

[gundysmullet]

As someone who knows virtually, no literally, nothing about the inner workings of how these decisions are made, is it remotely feasible that Pearson and Murphy could be called up to the bluejays in late September? They seem like very exciting number one and number two starters.

Remotely feasible - or remotely likely?

In a vacuum, sure for Murphy and Diaz, both of whom are age-wise appropriate and have had the innings buildup over the past few seasons to keep pitching into September. Pearson is likely to be brought along more carefully because of his missed season and the fact he hasn't had the same kind of innings buildup. Pearson also has the highest ceiling, throws the hardest, and I'd bet they have an innings target for him they won't exceed. As for operating outside of the vacuum for Murphy and Diaz, I'd say they may earn promotions before too much longer - BUF's staff is weak, so it's not like they would be complicating the process of developing any of those guys. And Harris and Zeuch ought to be ready soon to at least start at NH, so there is that to consider. Beyond that, a lot depends on how they want to approach the future of Stroman and Sanchez. Clayton Richard will be back in the rotation shortly. Trent Thornton is a starter, Ryan Borucki is theoretically returning next month and they have Clay Buckholz and Edwin Jackson as placeholder/inning eaters. So they can move Murphy and Diaz forward as aggressively or conservatively as they like. If they trade Stro or Sanchez, or tire of the placeholders, or if Borucki's return turns into 2020, or some combination thereof, that might open up a 2019 pathway for someone.

Thanks for the thorough updates. I'd trade Smoak, Grichuk, Stro and Sanchez for the best pitching and outfield prospects possible; prospects that are ready to make the jump from AAA to the bigs.

[Schad]

As someone who knows virtually, no literally, nothing about the inner workings of how these decisions are made, is it remotely feasible that Pearson and Murphy could be called up to the bluejays in late September? They seem like very exciting number one and number two starters.

Doubtful; Pearson's going to be babied for the time being, which means that he's likely to use up his innings allotment before that point. Injuries have prevented him from getting any substantial workload in his career to date, so we're probably targeting 100 IP or thereabouts...calling him up would only result in him getting a few IP at most, create a bit of a logjam on the 40-man and start his service time clock earlier than we'd prefer. I'd think he's more of a mid-2020 call-up.

Murphy's a possibility, because he isn't particularly young, and is already rostered on the 40-man. I'd caution that he's generally not regarded as a top-of-the-rotation prospect; he's a bit too reliant on two pitches, and those two have enough of a velocity differential that he'll have difficulty being an upper-echelon starter. Doesn't mean he couldn't achieve that if his change-up really comes along, or if he adds something like a splitter (FB/SF/tight curve happens to be about my favourite pitch mix, because they're all operating on similar planes but with much different paths), but he projects more as a 4th/5th starter or late-inning reliever at this point.

[gundysmullet]

As someone who knows virtually, no literally, nothing about the inner workings of how these decisions are made, is it remotely feasible that Pearson and Murphy could be called up to the bluejays in late September? They seem like very exciting number one and number two starters.

Doubtful; Pearson's going to be babied for the time being, which means that he's likely to use up his innings allotment before that point. Injuries have prevented him from getting any substantial workload in his career to date, so we're probably targeting 100 IP or thereabouts...calling him up would only result in him getting a few IP at most, create a bit of a logjam on the 40-man and start his service time clock earlier than we'd prefer. I'd think he's more of a mid-2020 call-up.

Murphy's a possibility, because he isn't particularly young, and is already rostered on the 40-man. I'd caution that he's generally not regarded as a top-of-the-rotation prospect; he's a bit too reliant on two pitches, and those two have enough of a velocity differential that he'll have difficulty being an upper-echelon starter. Doesn't mean he couldn't achieve that if his change-up really comes along, or if he adds something like a splitter (FB/SF/tight curve happens to be about my favourite pitch mix, because they're all operating on similar planes but with much different paths), but he projects more as a 4th/5th starter or late-inning reliever at this point.

Ok, thank you. It appears that Murphy is pitching better than the expectations were for him, in other words, he may be better than projected. Is that fair to say?

[Schad]

Ok, thank you. It appears that Murphy is pitching better than the expectations were for him, in other words, he may be better than projected. Is that fair to say?

Possibly, though you can get by on a less advanced repertoire in the minors to an extent that generally isn't possible in the bigs. Having a good fastball that you can locate and a solid pitch off of that will take you a pretty long way, but it's not enough to get through a major league order three times.

Being a fourth/fifth starter would be a good outcome for Murphy, all things considered. Lower-rotation starters are valuable; they make nearly as many starts as your ace, and if you can get someone that is around league-average for next to nothing in their first few seasons, you have done well. Consistent genuine aces are few and far between.

At the same time, pitchers are hard to project; something as simple as a change of grip on a single pitch can be the difference between a fringe back-end starter and a long-term mid-rotation (or higher) arm. Murphy does a number of things well in the minors: he has solid command, he gets strikeouts, and he induces grounders, but right now he lacks a dominant weapon or upper-tier velocity. There are an awful lot of pitchers who've hit a wall or settled into a back-of-the-rotation or relief role that fit that profile, but there are also guys like Corey Kluber, who modified his repertoire by adding a distinct (and extremely nasty) cutter-ish thing to occupy the space between his sinker and his breaking ball.

[gundysmullet]

Ok, thank you. It appears that Murphy is pitching better than the expectations were for him, in other words, he may be better than projected. Is that fair to say?

Possibly, though you can get by on a less advanced repertoire in the minors to an extent that generally isn't possible in the bigs. Having a good fastball that you can locate and a solid pitch off of that will take you a pretty long way, but it's not enough to get through a major league order three times.

Being a fourth/fifth starter would be a good outcome for Murphy, all things considered. Lower-rotation starters are valuable; they make nearly as many starts as your ace, and if you can get someone that is around league-average for next to nothing in their first few seasons, you have done well. Consistent genuine aces are few and far between.

At the same time, pitchers are hard to project; something as simple as a change of grip on a single pitch can be the difference between a fringe back-end starter and a long-term mid-rotation (or higher) arm. Murphy does a number of things well in the minors: he has solid command, he gets strikeouts, and he induces grounders, but right now he lacks a dominant weapon or upper-tier velocity. There are an awful lot of pitchers who've hit a wall or settled into a back-of-the-rotation or relief role that fit that profile, but there are also guys like Corey Kluber, who modified his repertoire by adding a distinct (and extremely nasty) cutter-ish thing to occupy the space between his sinker and his breaking ball.

Great explanation. Thank you