The Evolution & Future of Offenses & Defenses

[NinerSickness]

Growing up in the 90s, I came to believe that there's nothing more valuable to a team (except a great QB) than a DE who can dominate in both the running & Passing games. And it was true. Guys like Bruce Smith, Reggie White, Julius Peppers, Michael Strahan & so on were worth their weight in gold.

Football is always evolving & adapting to the next new thing, but there's also the phenomenon of rule changes. Clearly, it's far easier to play offense now than in the 80s & 90s. It's damn near impossible to be a shut-down, scary DB any more because you can't just light up a fool reaching for a high pass over the middle any more, and you get a PI penalty if you look at a WR funny. Teams have gone more towards:

1. 3-step drops & dump off if nothing's there
2. Passes over the middle, since you can't light up fools on a high pass any more (see the emergence of the TE / WR)

What's the point? I think the value of pass rushers is going down relative to what they used to be, and the value of DBs and LBs who can cover is going way up. Look at how dominant defenses were when they had Darelle Revis in his prime. I think the next great defenses will be teams with the best CBs and LBs who can cover. This comes right after the Niners drafted DEs in the first round every draft the last 10 years (exaggerating of course).

Remember when Belichick beat the Rams in 2001 by dropping 8 players into coverage? I expect to see defenses do that a lot more. Nickel CBs are essentially in the base defense nowadays. I'm extremely disappointed in the Niners' lack of focus on the CB position the last few years; let's hope Jason Verrett resurrects his career in SF.

Niners still need a great CB or 2 and a game-changing LB to be great IMO. Side note: Kwon Alexander had below-average grades in pass coverage; good think Lynch gave him a record contract.

[Jikkle]

Growing up in the 90s, I came to believe that there's nothing more valuable to a team (except a great QB) than a DE who can dominate in both the running & Passing games. And it was true. Guys like Bruce Smith, Reggie White, Julius Peppers, Michael Strahan & so on were worth their weight in gold.

Football is always evolving & adapting to the next new thing, but there's also the phenomenon of rule changes. Clearly, it's far easier to play offense now than in the 80s & 90s. It's damn near impossible to be a shut-down, scary DB any more because you can't just light up a fool reaching for a high pass over the middle any more, and you get a PI penalty if you look at a WR funny. Teams have gone more towards:

1. 3-step drops & dump off if nothing's there
2. Passes over the middle, since you can't light up fools on a high pass any more (see the emergence of the TE / WR)

What's the point? I think the value of pass rushers is going down relative to what they used to be, and the value of DBs and LBs who can cover is going way up. Look at how dominant defenses were when they had Darelle Revis in his prime. I think the next great defenses will be teams with the best CBs and LBs who can cover. This comes right after the Niners drafted DEs in the first round every draft the last 10 years (exaggerating of course).

Remember when Belichick beat the Rams in 2001 by dropping 8 players into coverage? I expect to see defenses do that a lot more. Nickel CBs are essentially in the base defense nowadays. I'm extremely disappointed in the Niners' lack of focus on the CB position the last few years; let's hope Jason Verrett resurrects his career in SF.

Niners still need a great CB or 2 and a game-changing LB to be great IMO. Side note: Kwon Alexander had below-average grades in pass coverage; good think Lynch gave him a record contract.

I would still say pass rushers still have the same value but the value of LBs and S that can cover has gone up while their ability to stop the run has gone down. I'd say having one DT that can get pressure has become more important as well instead of having two DTs that just clog up the middle.

Because you still need the pass rush to force the QB to take a 3 step drop or dump it off. If you're not getting pressure the offense is going to dial up more pass plays that take longer to develop and take deeper shots.

Also the best thing you can do to shut down quality QBs is to get pressure with 4 and drop 7 guys into coverage. That's typically the best formula to beat a guy like Tom Brady.

And if you're getting home with the pressure you'll force offenses to leave an RB or TE to block or chip which is one less option in the pass game.

I agree that the best defenses are going to be the ones that have everyone at least serviceable in pass coverage but it's still just as important to have the guys up front get pressure without help.

[CrimsonCrew]

Analytics indicate that coverage is more important than pass rush. Part, but only part, of why I can't believe that the only things we did to shore up an awful defensive backfield last year (at least on the personnel end) were re-signing an injury-prone player who has never been all that good as a starter, and sign perhaps the most injury-prone guy in recent league history. It's already going poorly. But hey, it's not like both the CB and safety classes were remarkably deep in this draft, and instead we reached for a WR, drafted a gimmick player, and then a punter instead of addressing arguably our biggest weakness.

Given how well DEs project to the NFL, and the relative lack of top-end talent at CB, I'm absolutely fine going with Bosa over a defensive back. But not taking a single defensive back until our last pick? Inexplicable.

[NinerSickness]

Given how well DEs project to the NFL, and the relative lack of top-end talent at CB, I'm absolutely fine going with Bosa over a defensive back.

Which is why the Niners should have traded down. It seems like Lynch is trying to re-create the 2002 Buccs: decent offensive play & insane talent on the DL with good-but-not-great CBs. I don't think it's going to work, and I think Lynch is an amateur who doesn't see the writing on the wall.

[CrimsonCrew]

Given how well DEs project to the NFL, and the relative lack of top-end talent at CB, I'm absolutely fine going with Bosa over a defensive back.

Which is why the Niners should have traded down. It seems like Lynch is trying to re-create the 2002 Buccs: decent offensive play & insane talent on the DL with good-but-not-great CBs. I don't think it's going to work, and I think Lynch is an amateur who doesn't see the writing on the wall.

I don't think there was a market to move down, Sick. Lynch said they got one call that wasn't a serious offer. The Jets were desperate to move down, and didn't. Teams just weren't willing to jump up this year, and given the two elite defensive guys, it wasn't worth moving back for low value - as it would have been in 2017.

[NinerSickness]

I don't think there was a market to move down, Sick. Lynch said they got one call that wasn't a serious offer. The Jets were desperate to move down, and didn't. Teams just weren't willing to jump up this year, and given the two elite defensive guys, it wasn't worth moving back for low value - as it would have been in 2017.

I don't buy that for a minute. Tons of teams would kill to get a pass rusher of Bosa's quality. And teams traded for pass-rushing veterans this offseason. I think Lynch was set on getting Bosa because he thinks he has the perfect recipe to win (circa 20 years ago).

That said, I can trash Lynch on other threads (and I will). This thread is more philosophical.

I think the times of truly dominant defenses are over unless a team catches lightning in a bottle. I think versatility is going to be key. The Niners need a SAM who can also rush the passer. They need a MIKE whose range is cover-2 quality who's kind of like a WILL because the team will play so much nickel. They also need more good CBs because, like I said, Nickel is essentially the base defense.

I also think safeties are becoming more important not just because of the passing game bu also because teams with safeties who can cover & play well in the box like a LB are going to have a huge advantage. And most teams don't have that.

[NinerSickness]

What I'm talking about w/ safeties who can cover & play like LBs...

If Sean Taylor were alive and in his prime, I'd take him over Nick Bosa right now. A player like that would be worth his weight in gold in today's NFL.