2019 NBA Finals Thread, Part 1 | Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors

[RapsAndJays21]

I don’t understand the logic here. Not saying the Raps are going to win (I’m hopeful), but the we just took down a “juggernaut” in Milwaukee who many said would put up a great fight and could potentially knock out GSW. Why isn’t anyone giving the Raps a chance here? We just beat two very very good teams, and arguably have had one of the toughest paths to the finals ever. (Also played one of the hottest teams in the NBA in the magic)

[RaptorHooter]

I don’t understand the logic here. Not saying the Raps are going to win (I’m hopeful), but the we just took down a “juggernaut” in Milwaukee who many said would put up a great fight and could potentially knock out GSW. Why isn’t anyone giving the Raps a chance here? We just beat two very very good teams, and arguably have had one of the toughest paths to the finals ever. (Also played one of the hottest teams in the NBA in the magic)

We're up against a dynasty.

We actually match up well with the Warriors and all our games over the last few years have been very entertaining, I have no doubt in my mind that this will be a great series.

[laika]

I don’t understand the logic here. Not saying the Raps are going to win (I’m hopeful), but the we just took down a “juggernaut” in Milwaukee who many said would put up a great fight and could potentially knock out GSW. Why isn’t anyone giving the Raps a chance here? We just beat two very very good teams, and arguably have had one of the toughest paths to the finals ever. (Also played one of the hottest teams in the NBA in the magic)

Because "they" are giving the Raptors much more than just a chance?
According to Realgm, the Raptors are a solid favorite- 58 to 42.

[justme400e]

Warriors have the NorCal Bay Area cheering for them, the Raptors have an entire country cheering for them.

[Raps in 4]

wait a moment...

before game 1 of the Raptors-Bucks series the realgm poll was favouring the Bucks, at least one single option (I don't remember if by aggregate too)
Now one of the options favouring the Raptors is leading the poll against the Warriors before game 1

either the Raptors fans flooded the general board (and they forgot to do it 2 weeks ago) or the collective hate vs the Warriors is being felt

Bucks have a huge fan population on Realgm. Warriors don't.

A lot of Raptors "fans" also cheer for the team to lose (Derozan fans, JV fans, etc.). But their numbers get thinner and thinner as we go deeper into the playoffs. One of the biggest Derozan fans on our board (who has 6 accounts) has even jumped on the bandwagon for the finals. He had been cheering for the team to lose in every round so far (he didn't want Kawhi to have a deeper playoff run than Derozan).

[durden_tyler]

Who's the favorite here? what are the odds in vegas?
It seems lot of dudes are betting on Raptors ..

Line just went to even, Raps were 2 point dogs against the Bucks at home.

Talking about Game 1 right?

Because the Raps are 3-to-1 dogs everywhere.

Good value for the Warriors, if you believed from the start they are going to win it all anyway...

[kieferli]

Who's the favorite here? what are the odds in vegas?
It seems lot of dudes are betting on Raptors ..

Vegas waiting to set a line until Paul Pierce makes his prediction.

[T-d0t]

Judging by the minority of Spurs fans hating on the Raps on Realgm, Spurstalk is probably in shambles with Kawhi in the Finals

[kieferli]

This is my dream match up . I think this series should be fun 。 Raptors in 7

[kieferli]

You know what I am a really bad luck in gambling just like Paul Pierce,
May be I should buy Warriors win

[Black star]

Spurs fans + Bucks fans + Warriors fans vs. Anti-Warriors fans + Raptor Fans + KD

FTFY

[JimmerAllStar]

Warriors have the NorCal Bay Area cheering for them, the Raptors have an entire country cheering for them.

So about the same number of people since the Warriors viewing area extends to Oregon and Washington.

[Son Goku 25]

Anyone have odds on what game Draymond lets a knee accidentally crack Kawhi’s thigh?

If that were to happen you can expect one Ibaka's knee to crack Draymond's skull

[NickAnderson]

Warriors have the NorCal Bay Area cheering for them, the Raptors have an entire country cheering for them.

And what does that have to do with anything?

[xfactor99]

God, stop exaggerating. It's not even a top 10 postseason performance if you restrict it to one playoff run per player. 3.6 assists to 2.9 turnovers per game is what prevents Kawhi from entering the category of the absolute best offensive stars in history. His playmaking isn't very good and he doesn't have that much off ball gravity, so you're left with a guy whose primary value on offense comes from his isolation scoring.

By my calculations, Toronto is a +0.4 rORTG team in this postseason (meaning adjusting Toronto's offensive performance for level of defense played). That's absolutely nothing special. LeBron has led historically great offenses in the postseason throughout his career while also providing elite defense during his prime. And stop completely ignoring that Kawhi has an amazing cast that went 17-5 in games he missed during the season. With Lowry on the court and Kawhi off the court in the regular season and playoffs, Toronto is +11.7. With Kawhi on the court and Lowry off the court, Toronto is +5.1. With both on, the Raptors are +10.4. What that shows is Lowry's value in running an offense can't be understated. And then you look at the fact that Kawhi's team has a great defender at literally every position you look. Lowry, Green, Siakam, Gasol, Ibaka, and so on. Toronto is winning these games with their defense, because their offense has been very average as a whole, and on defense every guy is contributing. It's not Kawhi just carrying the load.

That's not to say Kawhi isn't having a great postseason run but it's damn annoying to see how caught up in the moment people are. Kawhi's 8.8 postseason BPM this year wouldn't even rank in the top 30 all time of guys who logged over 500 minutes in the postseason. LeBron actually has 9 seasons ranking ahead of Kawhi in that regard. BPM isn't the be-all and end-all, but when you add in the fact that Kawhi isn't exactly leading that great of an offense and has an elite defensive supporting cast beside him, it's not the GOAT run you're trying to paint it to be.

Good points all around, the statistical evidence does really seem to indicate that while Kawhi is an amazing isolation scorer, he's not really making his teammates better (although I must add his Game 5 and 6 were arguably his best playmaking games ever).

What do you think of this finals matchup? Here's our discussion on it a few weeks ago, but it was before KD got injured. Obviously that changes things quite a bit.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1832346&p=74715228#p74715591

To be honest, the only thing that changed with me is I think I really overrated Milwaukee by overlooking the cracks in their halfcourt offense. Brickwalling Giannis in the paint, daring guys like Bledsoe and Freak to shoot from three above the break, and having the speedy defenders that can recover to the three point line after helping defend on Giannis' drives basically shut down the Bucks' offense. Giannis isn't the quick decision maker/playmaker that guys like LeBron, Harden, and Draymond are, so Toronto's defenders had enough time to get to the Bucks' shooters after collapsing on Giannis. I still have the same reservations about Toronto's offense in a series against Golden State that I did then. Their offense is very average and I don't trust their shooters outside of Kawhi. Defensively I can definitely see them making life hell for GS. Siakam is a good defender to throw at Green because of his length and mobility. Lowry, Green, and even Kawhi (until KD returns) will take stabs at the Splash Bros. But Draymond plus competent defenders (which GS has) is enough for a fearsome playoff defense and I think GS' offense has the varied attacks and off ball movement that will be much harder to defend than the Bucks' predictable attack. Toronto absolutely should look to trap Curry in the pick 'n roll and stick Siakam to Draymond in order give themselves the best chance. But I see this going to Golden State in 6 max, even if KD doesn't play a game. Unless Boogie returns and drastically screws up the chemistry. I'm also kinda assuming Iggy will be mostly fine, too. What about you?

I was never a big Milwaukee believer myself, Giannis and by extension the rest of the Bucks offense being unable to score in the halfcourt was predictable prior to the Raptors series.

I agree that the Toronto offense is going to struggle against the Warriors, I expect the Warriors to play Kawhi a lot like they play LeBron and Harden – put Iguodala on him initially, switch everything while making it hard to get the Steph switch, guard Kawhi straight up and try to shut down everyone else. I expect Kawhi to have a monster series, but the rest of the Raptors to struggle to get good shots.

However I do think the Raptors defense can guard the Warriors VERY well. The Warriors really need to steal game 1 (or 2) because the Warriors offense can be very difficult to adjust to after playing predictable offenses for a while (much like how the Cavs usually got steamrolled in games 1 and 2 before figuring things out in later games). Historically Danny Green has also locked Klay up as well. I still think the Warriors can generate good shots from the Steph/Dray p&r, but if Toronto tries switching it will be critically important for Steph to make Gasol and Ibaka defend one on one on the perimeter. If Gasol and Ibaka can stay on the court then that poses big (literally) problems for the Warriors. Also, these Livingston/Klay/McKinnie/Jerebko/Looney lineups that Kerr was throwing out in the non-Steph minutes during the WCF are simply not gonna cut it against the Raptors. I would suggest playing Dray with Klay for all those minutes that Steph is out.

I'm cautiously optimistic but definitely not as cocky as I was the last two years. The nagging suspicion that KD's injury is really serious and he may not play at all is also a factor. Going with Warriors in 6 but can definitely see Raptors winning the series.

[Son Goku 25]

538 has picked the Raptors to win this series.

They picked us to win the last series too.

Might as well not even play the games. It's over.

Remember when we were 90%+ favourites due to our SRS difference and Cavs horrible defense, then we got swept in the 2nd round last year?

SRS is bush league.

538's statistical modelling is next level.

This series is over.

Can you explain this model to me good sir

[Son Goku 25]

Never thought I'd say this, but Let's go Dubs!

Sodium levels are rising in this one.

[James40]

Anyone have odds on what game Draymond lets a knee accidentally crack Kawhi’s thigh?

If that were to happen you can expect one Ibaka's knee to crack Draymond's skull

Possibly, but he’s used the eye rake this playoffs already, he used the same move on Lebron last year. He’s gotta save something for Kawhi. He doesn’t target scrubs.

[Cubbies2120]

Never thought I'd say this, but Let's go Dubs!

Sodium levels are rising in this one.

Oh we're well past that already. About to hit them pressure points when Raps start picking up Ws, tbh.

[GooniesNeverDie]

I think both defenses are getting severely underrated. The Warriors have guys to throw at kawhi, siakam and lowry that will really affect our shot creation. DG and crew are going to have to hit their 3s. I fully expect the series to be played in the high 90s and low 100s. Dubs in 6 but I give the Raps a much better shot than general opinion (without KD).