2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery

[panthermark]

Hmmmm.....a Garland/Ball backcourt? Seems like a lot of Yin and Yang

[AKfanatic]

Hmmmm.....a Garland/Ball backcourt? Seems like a lot of Yin and Yang

Ball will be moved. He just has no fit with James on the team.

The only way Ball isn’t traded is if ownership wants to keep him beyond the LBJ contract and refuses to move him. But then they waste seasons of Ball’s development and continue to force a bad fit.

[bearadonisdna]

At the same time next year,
Feb 8th, Rui will be 22 and Zach will be 24.
Pretty damn close in age.
Not sure why you keep trying to police me.

Just think about that. THREE YEARS of separation. So, I suppose we can say the same thing about Rui and an 18 year old prospect, like right? Makes about as much sense. LOL.

Actually Cam Reddish and Rui are significantly closer in age than Zach and Rui. How's that?

Rui has been in college for 3 seasons.
Zach has been in the NBA for 4 seasons.

There's an opportunity cost, playing in the NBA is more substantial.

[Duke4life831]

Rui Hachimura



I mean, what's not to like? I've read some things about him and his game not translating, blah, blah. The kid is just a winner. He's gonna surprise a lot of people. 6'8".. and long with a 7'2" WS. Good shooter, nice touch around the basket.

Are you really going to base who is a good prospect and bad one on raw stats, and the vast majority of those stats are against horrible competition. Gonzaga doesn't even play in the PAC 12, they are in the WCC.

Those raw stats don't show how bad of a defender he is, how slowly he moves his feet defensively. The 3pt shooting is on extremely small sample size, for his career he is a 31% 3pt shooter on 0.7 attempts a game. Just for comparison, Zion in his 1 year (missed 6 games) made 24 3s, Rui in his 3 years in college made 24 3s. His size is pretty much wasted because he isn't a good rebounder, doesn't protect the rim and doesn't disrupt passing lanes. Those raw stats do show how inept he is at facilitating. 1.5 assists a game when you are the clear #1 guy and you are playing alongside the human pogo stick of Brandon Clarke and the 3pt gunner of Norvell Jr, its actually kind of hard how he didn't fall into more assists. I think Rui has a good chance of becoming a stronger version of TJ Warren.

[johnnyvann840]

At the same time next year,
Feb 8th, Rui will be 22 and Zach will be 24.
Pretty damn close in age.
Not sure why you keep trying to police me.

Just think about that. THREE YEARS of separation. So, I suppose we can say the same thing about Rui and an 18 year old prospect, like right? Makes about as much sense. LOL.

Actually Cam Reddish and Rui are significantly closer in age than Zach and Rui. How's that?

Rui has been in college for 3 seasons.
Zach has been in the NBA for 4 seasons.

There's an opportunity cost, playing in the NBA is more substantial.

Why are we even talking about Zach Lavine? They are not even close in age. Three years is an eternity. You're making my point for me. In three years Rui will be be entering just his 3rd NBA season and Zach will be an 8 year veteran. So what is your point?

Like I said Rui Hachimura and Cam Reddish are only separated by a year and a half. and guess what man? In September, Rui will still be 21 and Cam will be 20! LOL. For an entire 5 months! They are basically the same age according to your logic.

Spoiler:

But, if we want to go there. Yes, Lavine is entering his 5th NBA season and despite his raw individual stats he's still not much of a postive impact player and that was on one of the worst teams in the NBA where his replacements were basically G leaguers. Last season was his first even cracking a net positive and he barely moved the needle 2 pts per 100. When your replacements are marginal NBA players you should be far into positive impact territory.

[cjbulls]

the issue with Rui is that he is about the same age as zach

What are you talking about. He just turned 21 in Feb. Zach is going to be 25 this season. Rui is younger than Steph Curry was when he was a rookie.. or Klay Thompson. So many of the best players in the league came in at 21. The Bulls have done well when drafting guys like that too. Jo, Taj, Jimmy Butler. Joel Embiid was 22 when he finally played as a rookie.

People are just ridiculous with this age thing. I would much rather evaluate a player that has played a couple of seasons in college than play the guessing game with children with little experience in many cases. Like Hunter is the same age and he has shown that he improves his game year to year. With a lot of younger prospects it's more of a gamble betting that they are going to improve and develop and so many of them never do.

The age thing is a mixed bag. You are right that it is not a good reason to write-off a player, especially when you see them steadily improve every year. I think Hunter has a limited ceiling, a lower ceiling than others believe here, but his improvement every year leaves me confident he will achieve a realistic ceiling as a starting caliber defensive wing with good shooting.

But it becomes a problem when people try to compare numbers against older prospects. There is not only a physical maturity aspect, but also an "hours spent playing higher-level basketball" advantage. Hachimura has had three years getting comfortable with a coach and a system more or less adapted to suit him over time. If you looked at Hachimura's freshman numbers, would he even be in a conversation for the draft?

So yeah, the numbers for Hachimura are not the same as the numbers for Barrett even though both are good scorers. Hachimura should get more of a pass than most, however, given his late start and foreign status.

[taj2133]

Read on Twitter

[waffle]

If we overpay for Ball, someone who is being PUSHED out of LA? That would kind of suck...and I am not that anti Ball. But I am only PRO Ball if we swoop in and provide a service to L.A., not a life preserver.

Bodies and maybe a future protected 1st

[Mech Engineer]

Age is important but it is over-weighted for these young players. College experience is great but it is what it is...college experience. The kid coming out of 3/4 years of college might be mentally mature but you cannot predict their NBA career or use the extra years as mileage. I see this all the time here. A guy like Lavine has lot of mileage after 5 years compared to Jimmy at the same age. NBA mileage is different.

Other than LeBron, Durant...I don't know how many 1 and done guys can last beyond their early 30s in the league. Look at Melo...how he fell off even by his standards. Look at Taj...just 1 year younger than him and he has been productive for the last 2 years while Melo with supposedly a higher skill set has basically disappeared for the last 2 years even as a role player. Taj/Jimmy kept improving at 26/27 years while I doubt somebody like a Lavine would do the same at 26/27. They have so much mileage in the league by that age.

I think the 1 and done guys peak physically at an early age and that might be a challenge because unless they are really good, are they mentally mature to handle that physical peak? IMO, guys like Westbrook, Wall were mentally not mature to handle a deep playoff run at the ages when they were at their physical peak.

[bearadonisdna]

Just think about that. THREE YEARS of separation. So, I suppose we can say the same thing about Rui and an 18 year old prospect, like right? Makes about as much sense. LOL.

Actually Cam Reddish and Rui are significantly closer in age than Zach and Rui. How's that?

Rui has been in college for 3 seasons.
Zach has been in the NBA for 4 seasons.

There's an opportunity cost, playing in the NBA is more substantial.

Why are we even talking about Zach Lavine? They are not even close in age. Three years is an eternity. You're making my point for me. In three years Rui will be be entering just his 3rd NBA season and Zach will be an 8 year veteran. So what is your point?

Like I said Rui Hachimura and Cam Reddish are only separated by a year and a half. and guess what man? In September, Rui will still be 21 and Cam will be 20! LOL. For an entire 5 months! They are basically the same age according to your logic.

Spoiler:

But, if we want to go there. Yes, Lavine is entering his 5th NBA season and despite his raw individual stats he's still not much of a postive impact player and that was on one of the worst teams in the NBA where his replacements were basically G leaguers. Last season was his first even cracking a net positive and he barely moved the needle 2 pts per 100. When your replacements are marginal NBA players you should be far into positive impact territory.

Zach is 2 years 11 months older but has 4 years more of nba experience.
The older age limits your developmental window.
The bulls have youth so it may not hurt them circumstantially.
Agreed the Zach and Rui comp isn't important but the 3 year narrative is real and has and will be taken into account.

[Red Larrivee]

It'd be pretty surprising if Garland isn't the Lakers pick, especially after reading the article about the Lakers today where it shows how much influence Rich Paul has on the team. Garland is the only rookie hanging out with a pro non-stop right now.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[johnnyvann840]

Rui has been in college for 3 seasons.
Zach has been in the NBA for 4 seasons.

There's an opportunity cost, playing in the NBA is more substantial.

Why are we even talking about Zach Lavine? They are not even close in age. Three years is an eternity. You're making my point for me. In three years Rui will be be entering just his 3rd NBA season and Zach will be an 8 year veteran. So what is your point?

Like I said Rui Hachimura and Cam Reddish are only separated by a year and a half. and guess what man? In September, Rui will still be 21 and Cam will be 20! LOL. For an entire 5 months! They are basically the same age according to your logic.

Spoiler:

But, if we want to go there. Yes, Lavine is entering his 5th NBA season and despite his raw individual stats he's still not much of a postive impact player and that was on one of the worst teams in the NBA where his replacements were basically G leaguers. Last season was his first even cracking a net positive and he barely moved the needle 2 pts per 100. When your replacements are marginal NBA players you should be far into positive impact territory.

Zach is 2 years 11 months older but has 4 years more of nba experience.
The older age limits your developmental window.
The bulls have youth so it may not hurt them circumstantially.
Agreed the Zach and Rui comp isn't important but the 3 year narrative is real and has and will be taken into account.

Look bro. Give up here. This is nonsense. You're trying to say that Rui is somehow too old of a draft prospect when he's not even a year and a half older than the guy you're touting, Reddish. You're also at the same time trying to to say that Lavine and Rui are "about the same age" when they aren't close. In fact, they are about 3 years apart (2 years and 11 months- 3 years what's the damn difference?). And Reddish and Rui are, in fact, actually about the same age or separated by 1 year and 5 months.

I'm done with this one.

[johnnyvann840]

Age is important but it is over-weighted for these young players. College experience is great but it is what it is...college experience. The kid coming out of 3/4 years of college might be mentally mature but you cannot predict their NBA career or use the extra years as mileage. I see this all the time here. A guy like Lavine has lot of mileage after 5 years compared to Jimmy at the same age. NBA mileage is different.

Other than LeBron, Durant...I don't know how many 1 and done guys can last beyond their early 30s in the league. Look at Melo...how he fell off even by his standards. Look at Taj...just 1 year younger than him and he has been productive for the last 2 years while Melo with supposedly a higher skill set has basically disappeared for the last 2 years even as a role player. Taj/Jimmy kept improving at 26/27 years while I doubt somebody like a Lavine would do the same at 26/27. They have so much mileage in the league by that age.

I think the 1 and done guys peak physically at an early age and that might be a challenge because unless they are really good, are they mentally mature to handle that physical peak? IMO, guys like Westbrook, Wall were mentally not mature to handle a deep playoff run at the ages when they were at their physical peak.

Hallelujah. Somebody gets it. Thank you. Spot on.

[johnnyvann840]

Rui Hachimura



I mean, what's not to like? I've read some things about him and his game not translating, blah, blah. The kid is just a winner. He's gonna surprise a lot of people. 6'8".. and long with a 7'2" WS. Good shooter, nice touch around the basket.

Are you really going to base who is a good prospect and bad one on raw stats, and the vast majority of those stats are against horrible competition. Gonzaga doesn't even play in the PAC 12, they are in the WCC.

Those raw stats don't show how bad of a defender he is, how slowly he moves his feet defensively. The 3pt shooting is on extremely small sample size, for his career he is a 31% 3pt shooter on 0.7 attempts a game. Just for comparison, Zion in his 1 year (missed 6 games) made 24 3s, Rui in his 3 years in college made 24 3s. His size is pretty much wasted because he isn't a good rebounder, doesn't protect the rim and doesn't disrupt passing lanes. Those raw stats do show how inept he is at facilitating. 1.5 assists a game when you are the clear #1 guy and you are playing alongside the human pogo stick of Brandon Clarke and the 3pt gunner of Norvell Jr, its actually kind of hard how he didn't fall into more assists. I think Rui has a good chance of becoming a stronger version of TJ Warren.

You also have to consider where he comes from and the late start this kid had playing basketball. He was a baseball player when he was young and didn't really pick up hoops until high school. I think he has some of the highest upside in the draft despite being 21 (which is not even old for a draftee). He still managed to put up impressive numbers on one of the top teams in the country. I like his chances a lot.

[Duke4life831]

Rui Hachimura



I mean, what's not to like? I've read some things about him and his game not translating, blah, blah. The kid is just a winner. He's gonna surprise a lot of people. 6'8".. and long with a 7'2" WS. Good shooter, nice touch around the basket.

Are you really going to base who is a good prospect and bad one on raw stats, and the vast majority of those stats are against horrible competition. Gonzaga doesn't even play in the PAC 12, they are in the WCC.

Those raw stats don't show how bad of a defender he is, how slowly he moves his feet defensively. The 3pt shooting is on extremely small sample size, for his career he is a 31% 3pt shooter on 0.7 attempts a game. Just for comparison, Zion in his 1 year (missed 6 games) made 24 3s, Rui in his 3 years in college made 24 3s. His size is pretty much wasted because he isn't a good rebounder, doesn't protect the rim and doesn't disrupt passing lanes. Those raw stats do show how inept he is at facilitating. 1.5 assists a game when you are the clear #1 guy and you are playing alongside the human pogo stick of Brandon Clarke and the 3pt gunner of Norvell Jr, its actually kind of hard how he didn't fall into more assists. I think Rui has a good chance of becoming a stronger version of TJ Warren.

You also have to consider where he comes from and the late start this kid had playing basketball. He was a baseball player when he was young and didn't really pick up hoops until high school. I think he has some of the highest upside in the draft despite being 21 (which is not even old for a draftee). He still managed to put up impressive numbers on one of the top teams in the country. I like his chances a lot.

But one thing you kind of expect from guys who started the game late is massive leaps in improvement in their game. Where is that with Rui? He seems to have had a normal collegiate progression. More minutes over the years with slight progression in some areas. His shooting inside the arc is the same, his FT% dropped 6%, he has gotten worse as a rebounder, his facilitating is the same, his 3pt% improved, but again we are talking about a very small sample size, but I will give him some credit there. Defensively he was as much of a liability this year as last year. Its not like an Embiid thing where you watch him prior to Kansas, then you see the huge growth at the start of the year, and the huge growth by the end of the year when he went down with his injury. That was a guy late to the game and you could see a crazy fast progression.

I don't hate Rui as an NBA prospect, again I think he can be a stronger TJ Warren. I think taking Rui mid 1st on in this draft is a solid pickup. But if we are talking top 10, I just cant see a case made for him.

[Mech Engineer]

Age is important but it is over-weighted for these young players. College experience is great but it is what it is...college experience. The kid coming out of 3/4 years of college might be mentally mature but you cannot predict their NBA career or use the extra years as mileage. I see this all the time here. A guy like Lavine has lot of mileage after 5 years compared to Jimmy at the same age. NBA mileage is different.

Other than LeBron, Durant...I don't know how many 1 and done guys can last beyond their early 30s in the league. Look at Melo...how he fell off even by his standards. Look at Taj...just 1 year younger than him and he has been productive for the last 2 years while Melo with supposedly a higher skill set has basically disappeared for the last 2 years even as a role player. Taj/Jimmy kept improving at 26/27 years while I doubt somebody like a Lavine would do the same at 26/27. They have so much mileage in the league by that age.

I think the 1 and done guys peak physically at an early age and that might be a challenge because unless they are really good, are they mentally mature to handle that physical peak? IMO, guys like Westbrook, Wall were mentally not mature to handle a deep playoff run at the ages when they were at their physical peak.

Hallelujah. Somebody gets it. Thank you. Spot on.

It will be interesting to compare the guys who spent 2/3/4 years in college, became good NBA players against 1 and done players, became good NBA players(assume decent health). I see all these guys like Igoudala, Gasol, Taj all being productive at late ages while similarly talented guys are out earlier than them. And, it's not like these 1 and done guys are usually productive from Day 1. They spend the first 3/4 years in the NBA being bad while also getting beat up physically unlike the 4 year college guys.

It irritates me to see the age comments about Jimmy or Taj. Those guys have less mileage or less years in the NBA which means they can grow more compared to the same age guys who were 1 and done. It shows in the way these guys developed their game late in their 20s by adding something to their game compared to the guys who had 4/5 years experience and were 23/24 years old.

[johnnyvann840]

But one thing you kind of expect from guys who started the game late is massive leaps in improvement in their game. Where is that with Rui? He seems to have had a normal collegiate progression. More minutes over the years with slight progression in some areas. His shooting inside the arc is the same, his FT% dropped 6%, he has gotten worse as a rebounder, his facilitating is the same, his 3pt% improved, but again we are talking about a very small sample size, but I will give him some credit there. Defensively he was as much of a liability this year as last year. Its not like an Embiid thing where you watch him prior to Kansas, then you see the huge growth at the start of the year, and the huge growth by the end of the year when he went down with his injury. That was a guy late to the game and you could see a crazy fast progression.

I don't hate Rui as an NBA prospect, again I think he can be a stronger TJ Warren. I think taking Rui mid 1st on in this draft is a solid pickup. But if we are talking top 10, I just cant see a case made for him.

All good points. We'll just have to wait and see. I have a pretty decent track record picking guys like him out though. Like I said, I like his chances. I think the things he needs to improve on are things he will improve on with basketball being his full time job and NBA coaching. He has the physical tools to do whatever he wants.

I disagree that he didn't improve over his college career. His per 40 numbers went up every year in PP40, his rebounds were about the same the last two seasons. I'm not going to ding him for going from 9.1 to 8.6...Nor am I going to for his FT% which was minimal drop but a huge improvement shooting the ball in all areas from two years ago. .528- .568- .591 from the field with double the volume from a year ago... .192- .417 from 3 pt. I know he only took 1.4 per 40 but his stroke looks great. His assists went from nothing to 2 per. He played almost double the minutes and improved quite a bit. He was fairly static in rebounds but improved in the important things like efficiency. His PER went from 24.4 to 28.6 his TS from .603 to .635. And those are big numbers.

[cjbulls]

Age is important but it is over-weighted for these young players. College experience is great but it is what it is...college experience. The kid coming out of 3/4 years of college might be mentally mature but you cannot predict their NBA career or use the extra years as mileage. I see this all the time here. A guy like Lavine has lot of mileage after 5 years compared to Jimmy at the same age. NBA mileage is different.

Other than LeBron, Durant...I don't know how many 1 and done guys can last beyond their early 30s in the league. Look at Melo...how he fell off even by his standards. Look at Taj...just 1 year younger than him and he has been productive for the last 2 years while Melo with supposedly a higher skill set has basically disappeared for the last 2 years even as a role player. Taj/Jimmy kept improving at 26/27 years while I doubt somebody like a Lavine would do the same at 26/27. They have so much mileage in the league by that age.

I think the 1 and done guys peak physically at an early age and that might be a challenge because unless they are really good, are they mentally mature to handle that physical peak? IMO, guys like Westbrook, Wall were mentally not mature to handle a deep playoff run at the ages when they were at their physical peak.

Hallelujah. Somebody gets it. Thank you. Spot on.

Or two guys who get it wrong. The mileage theory seems to have no bearing when you consider the longevity of players like Kobe, Garnett, Nowitzki, Tony Parker, LeBron. We can all pick examples that support either side.

Playing a longer college career allows you to better evaluate floor and ceiling because the prospect growth path is generally the same. If they haven't achieved X by date Y, they are less likely to do so. It's very far from a perfect science, but it is a good shorthand. Just like saying player X has missed Y number of games every year is good shorthand for how many injuries they will have in the NBA.

It's fair to say that Rui is three years older and still hasn't improved his 3pt shooting enough. That's a bad sign. It can be mitigated by saying unlike most basketball player's typical growth path, Rui didn't even start practicing 3's until college, so he may have more opportunity to grow.

It's not fair to say because he went to school for three years, he is at some sort of NBA advantage or more likely to be an effective player for a longer window in the NBA.

[johnnyvann840]

Age is important but it is over-weighted for these young players. College experience is great but it is what it is...college experience. The kid coming out of 3/4 years of college might be mentally mature but you cannot predict their NBA career or use the extra years as mileage. I see this all the time here. A guy like Lavine has lot of mileage after 5 years compared to Jimmy at the same age. NBA mileage is different.

Other than LeBron, Durant...I don't know how many 1 and done guys can last beyond their early 30s in the league. Look at Melo...how he fell off even by his standards. Look at Taj...just 1 year younger than him and he has been productive for the last 2 years while Melo with supposedly a higher skill set has basically disappeared for the last 2 years even as a role player. Taj/Jimmy kept improving at 26/27 years while I doubt somebody like a Lavine would do the same at 26/27. They have so much mileage in the league by that age.

I think the 1 and done guys peak physically at an early age and that might be a challenge because unless they are really good, are they mentally mature to handle that physical peak? IMO, guys like Westbrook, Wall were mentally not mature to handle a deep playoff run at the ages when they were at their physical peak.

Hallelujah. Somebody gets it. Thank you. Spot on.

Or two guys who get it wrong. The mileage theory seems to have no bearing when you consider the longevity of players like Kobe, Garnett, Nowitzki, Tony Parker, LeBron. We can all pick examples that support either side.

Playing a longer college career allows you to better evaluate floor and ceiling because the prospect growth path is generally the same. If they haven't achieved X by date Y, they are less likely to do so. It's very far from a perfect science, but it is a good shorthand. Just like saying player X has missed Y number of games every year is good shorthand for how many injuries they will have in the NBA.

It's fair to say that Rui is three years older and still hasn't improved his 3pt shooting enough. That's a bad sign. It can be mitigated by saying unlike most basketball player's typical growth path, Rui didn't even start practicing 3's until college, so he may have more opportunity to grow.

It's not fair to say because he went to school for three years, he is at some sort of NBA advantage or more likely to be an effective player for a longer window in the NBA.

But you're picking out all time greats and guys known for their long careers. You're right we can do the same for both sides.

and Rui's 3 pt shooting went from .286 to .192 to .417. He improved a LOT. On fairly low volume but he showed he can make the shot and has a nice stroke.

And people need to stop saying he's 3 years older. He's not even a year and a half older than most draft prospects. He just has more experience. He's a very young junior. Like I said he's not even a year and a half older than Cam Reddish.

[Mech Engineer]

Age is important but it is over-weighted for these young players. College experience is great but it is what it is...college experience. The kid coming out of 3/4 years of college might be mentally mature but you cannot predict their NBA career or use the extra years as mileage. I see this all the time here. A guy like Lavine has lot of mileage after 5 years compared to Jimmy at the same age. NBA mileage is different.

Other than LeBron, Durant...I don't know how many 1 and done guys can last beyond their early 30s in the league. Look at Melo...how he fell off even by his standards. Look at Taj...just 1 year younger than him and he has been productive for the last 2 years while Melo with supposedly a higher skill set has basically disappeared for the last 2 years even as a role player. Taj/Jimmy kept improving at 26/27 years while I doubt somebody like a Lavine would do the same at 26/27. They have so much mileage in the league by that age.

I think the 1 and done guys peak physically at an early age and that might be a challenge because unless they are really good, are they mentally mature to handle that physical peak? IMO, guys like Westbrook, Wall were mentally not mature to handle a deep playoff run at the ages when they were at their physical peak.

Hallelujah. Somebody gets it. Thank you. Spot on.

Or two guys who get it wrong. The mileage theory seems to have no bearing when you consider the longevity of players like Kobe, Garnett, Nowitzki, Tony Parker, LeBron. We can all pick examples that support either side.

Playing a longer college career allows you to better evaluate floor and ceiling because the prospect growth path is generally the same. If they haven't achieved X by date Y, they are less likely to do so. It's very far from a perfect science, but it is a good shorthand. Just like saying player X has missed Y number of games every year is good shorthand for how many injuries they will have in the NBA.

It's fair to say that Rui is three years older and still hasn't improved his 3pt shooting enough. That's a bad sign. It can be mitigated by saying unlike most basketball player's typical growth path, Rui didn't even start practicing 3's until college, so he may have more opportunity to grow.

It's not fair to say because he went to school for three years, he is at some sort of NBA advantage or more likely to be an effective player for a longer window in the NBA.

Kobe was practically worthless in his last 3 years. It was a $hitshow. Tony Parker has been useless for a long time. The last time the Spurs won a championship, it was Patty Mills going crazy more than Parker showing some flashes here and there. Guys like Nowitzki, LeBron, Garnett are all time greats....and I said that some players put up stats at any age. You are right there is always examples for both arguments. That's why I said you need a better comparative study.

What you are wrong is saying the growth can be evaluated for a longer college career player. Both are unknowns. They cannot develop their game in college as much as in the NBA but they can get mentally mature in college to adjust to the rigors of learning in the NBA. The bottom line is assuming most NBA juniors/seniors are in anyway done developing and a freshman would reach a better ceiling at a junior age because of some stat is what has made the NBA draft such a bust process.

Just as in the case of business, everyone is not a Bill Gates who can drop out of college and become a superstar businessman. Most NBA 1 and done kids are just wasting time in the league learning the league because they are mentally not mature to understand the league/advanced NBA game. The same kid has a better chance if they spend a few years in college to mentally mature even if they remain the same in basketball stats. Most college kids whether they are NBA prospects or normal average Joes are not mentally ready to embrace the business world 1 year removed from high school.