2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery

[johnnyvann840]

I think Rui will be fine in a few years. I don't want him (at #7) because he does not really help us now....not even as depth. Our team is too much of a mess to nurture him.

I hate to say this....but he needs to go to a "good" organization. If he goes to the Spurs, he will be an All-Star 5 years from now.

I agree. I don't think he's really in play for the Bulls at 7 but I don't think anybody would be reaching picking him as a top-10

[kodo]

This isn't about any prospect or even our pick, but this article sums up why the draft is headed in a bad direction due to agencies.

From ESPN / Givony:

With the NBA combine in the rearview and just over three weeks until teams are on the clock to make their picks, the pre-draft process is officially underway.

The final 10 days of May have been completely taken over by agency-sponsored pro days, with executives shuttling among more than a dozen showcases in Atlanta, Phoenix, New York, Chicago, Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Agencies conduct pro days because they allow them to accentuate the strengths of their clients while masking weaknesses.

Study the sideline of any pro day, and you'll see a who's who of NBA executives, coaches, players and top-level decision-makers for virtually every team. As the NCAA regular season fades into the distant memory of the NBA consciousness, more recent impressions and experiences can overpower and distort the decision-making process.

"We've completely lost control of the pre-draft process, and we have no one to blame but ourselves," one general manager lamented. "Instead of spending time getting to know the guys we are about to invest millions of dollars in, as well as our job security and having our coaching staffs put players through meaningful workouts, we are sitting in traffic on the 405, shuffling between airports and watching celebrity trainers put players through dog and pony shows, with highly scripted routines against cones that tell us absolutely nothing about how they might perform in an actual game."

How does a player such as Georgios Papagiannis become a lottery pick after averaging 1.5 points per game in the Euroleague? He couldn't miss in his pro day. How does Rashad Vaughn rise from the mid-second round to the No. 17 pick on draft night? By getting hot and looking the part in workouts.

Who will be fooled this year? We'll have to wait and see how things play out. -- Givony

I bet most of these guys who pulled out don't even have promises. It keeps working too well, eg Dion Waiters a soph who averaged 12 ppg 2 apg went #4 due to a fake promise and pull out.

The sad fact is that these days the best way to get your client drafted as high as possible is to hide & obscure as much as possible.

[cjbulls]

If Garland and White go before 7, I hope the Bulls have the balls to trade down. Hunter, Reddish and the other guys in the second half of the lottery either have limited upside (Hunter, Clarke and Washington), have huge red flags (Reddish), play center - a position that is of lesser relevance in today's NBA and at which the Bulls are already stocked (Hayes and Bol) or are massive projects with a small likelihood of ever being really good (Doumbouya, Bol again and Langford). All of these guys would be mid-teen draft picks at best in a decent draft, and we should not choose one at 7 when we can trade down and get two or three relatively equal opportunities to find someone of real value.

I think this is an extremely weak draft overall (after Williamson of course), but if there is value, I believe it lies in the 20's. Samanic appears to have as good a floor and ceiling as the guys mocked at 7-14, and he is projected to go in the mid-20's. Cam Johnson will be a great pro, and could be a viable replacement for Porter when Lauri and Wendell come off their rookie contracts. And, as I have said before, I am on the Carsen Edwards train as a guy who can get his own shot and who has been the centerpiece of two incredibly efficient offenses at Purdue. We desperately need another player who can get his own shot, and lord knows an increase in efficient offense would be most welcome. There are others of interest who are projected to go in the 20's, including Kabengele and Okeke.

I mentioned before that my conversion to the Edwards bandwagon was largely driven by the Stepien's analysis of him, including how he compares to Garland and White. Here are links to the relevant articles.

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/05/15/draft-notes-carsen-edwards-part-1/

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/05/15/draft-notes-carsen-edwards-kenpom-team-adjo-part-two/

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/05/23/2019-guard-class-pull-shot-versatility-functionality-gravity/

The best way of getting multiple picks in this part of the draft would be to trade 7 to the Celtics for 14 and 20, and then trading 14 to the Spurs for 19 and 29. I think both are doable. If only the Bulls have the cojones to acknowledge that the tank is not going to yield a superstar in the making this year. I doubt they have the courage to do it, but I think it's the best path given our current circumstance.

I don't completely disagree with your assessment, but I don't mind taking a high floor/low ceiling player. The Bulls adding young talent that will deliver has value given that 80% of the players picked after 7 probably won't be in the NBA in 5 years

But more importantly, the problem with a trade down is the Bulls need less young talent. A team needs veterans to grow and we already have too many guys on their first contract. Adding four more rookies to a team with a very young core is only going to complicate the locker room and team structure. It's a step in the wrong direction. They need to be bringing in vets. I would be ok with trading 7 for a vet before trading for more picks this year (future firsts or something like 7/38 for 8/10 could be a different story).

Good points about adding a lot of rookies. But in my view, it would not be 4. Samanic is extremely raw, and I would use 38 on someone like Jontay Porter if it is not bundled with another pick to move up. Take two swings at young guys with big upside. Neither will need a lot, or any, minutes next year. Johnson and Edwards could contribute next year right away.

7 and 38 for 8 and 10 is a pipe dream. As for trading for a vet, do you have any vet in mind - one that includes a decent theory as to why a team would want to trade him for 7 in this draft? Because I certainly don't see one out there.

Sure, if they for example took Goga and left him in Europe I’d be ok with it.

And yes the Atlanta deal isnt very realistic. I’m just operating off the rumors they’re really high on Culver and there are scenarios where it goes Garland, Hunter, White leaving Culver as the only guy in that tier available. The Bulls would take Culver so ATL would have to make this type of move.

I am alone, but I’d be interested in #7 + every contract you might not want (Felicio + Dunn + maybe Val) for Mike Conley. I believe he would help the growth of the core so much more than any likely prospect and it wouldn’t matter his age. He’d be tradeable again after next year, or more realistically, held onto as an expiring contract for the summer of 2021 where they could again pursue a max free agent (or two depending on Otto) before the new contracts come due.

[johnnyvann840]

This isn't about any prospect or even our pick, but this article sums up why the draft is headed in a bad direction due to agencies.

From ESPN / Givony:

With the NBA combine in the rearview and just over three weeks until teams are on the clock to make their picks, the pre-draft process is officially underway.

The final 10 days of May have been completely taken over by agency-sponsored pro days, with executives shuttling among more than a dozen showcases in Atlanta, Phoenix, New York, Chicago, Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Agencies conduct pro days because they allow them to accentuate the strengths of their clients while masking weaknesses.

Study the sideline of any pro day, and you'll see a who's who of NBA executives, coaches, players and top-level decision-makers for virtually every team. As the NCAA regular season fades into the distant memory of the NBA consciousness, more recent impressions and experiences can overpower and distort the decision-making process.

"We've completely lost control of the pre-draft process, and we have no one to blame but ourselves," one general manager lamented. "Instead of spending time getting to know the guys we are about to invest millions of dollars in, as well as our job security and having our coaching staffs put players through meaningful workouts, we are sitting in traffic on the 405, shuffling between airports and watching celebrity trainers put players through dog and pony shows, with highly scripted routines against cones that tell us absolutely nothing about how they might perform in an actual game."

How does a player such as Georgios Papagiannis become a lottery pick after averaging 1.5 points per game in the Euroleague? He couldn't miss in his pro day. How does Rashad Vaughn rise from the mid-second round to the No. 17 pick on draft night? By getting hot and looking the part in workouts.

Who will be fooled this year? We'll have to wait and see how things play out. -- Givony

I bet most of these guys who pulled out don't even have promises. It keeps working too well, eg Dion Waiters a soph who averaged 12 ppg 2 apg went #4 due to a fake promise and pull out.

The sad fact is that these days the best way to get your client drafted as high as possible is to hide & obscure as much as possible.

It's become such a game. And honestly I really truly believe that there are a lot of idiots involved in a lot of NBA teams draft processes. I have to laugh when I hear poster say oh these guys are professionals and they're the experts. So many of them got their jobs with nepotism... knowing somebody... being an X player who really doesn't know how to evaluate. Some people have an eye for talent naturally and some people just don't.

Look what Michael Porter Jr pulled off last year and the guy could barely walk and he got drafted in the lottery. Hasn't really played basketball in how long now? I mean ffs all you have to do is watch the couple of games that he did play in college and it was so clear that he was having major problems with his back even then 5 months after his surgery.

Lies, fake promises, guys pulling out of workouts, etc. Some of these NBA executives are so afraid of missing out on the next big thing that they fall for this crap. And then you get this groupthink herd mentality about certain players and I'll sit here and watch the same guys in wonder what the hell these morons are even talking about.

kodo is 100% correct. It's become a game to show as little as you possibly can. Most of these guys have already played a full College season and you can see what they are all about and what they can do.... all they can do at this point is hurt themselves in a team sanctioned work out where they actually have to play 5 on 5 or even 3 on 3. So we wind up with these choreographed "Pro days" and garbage like that that only shows the players best side.

[cjbulls]

This isn't about any prospect or even our pick, but this article sums up why the draft is headed in a bad direction due to agencies.

From ESPN / Givony:

With the NBA combine in the rearview and just over three weeks until teams are on the clock to make their picks, the pre-draft process is officially underway.

The final 10 days of May have been completely taken over by agency-sponsored pro days, with executives shuttling among more than a dozen showcases in Atlanta, Phoenix, New York, Chicago, Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Agencies conduct pro days because they allow them to accentuate the strengths of their clients while masking weaknesses.

Study the sideline of any pro day, and you'll see a who's who of NBA executives, coaches, players and top-level decision-makers for virtually every team. As the NCAA regular season fades into the distant memory of the NBA consciousness, more recent impressions and experiences can overpower and distort the decision-making process.

"We've completely lost control of the pre-draft process, and we have no one to blame but ourselves," one general manager lamented. "Instead of spending time getting to know the guys we are about to invest millions of dollars in, as well as our job security and having our coaching staffs put players through meaningful workouts, we are sitting in traffic on the 405, shuffling between airports and watching celebrity trainers put players through dog and pony shows, with highly scripted routines against cones that tell us absolutely nothing about how they might perform in an actual game."

How does a player such as Georgios Papagiannis become a lottery pick after averaging 1.5 points per game in the Euroleague? He couldn't miss in his pro day. How does Rashad Vaughn rise from the mid-second round to the No. 17 pick on draft night? By getting hot and looking the part in workouts.

Who will be fooled this year? We'll have to wait and see how things play out. -- Givony

I bet most of these guys who pulled out don't even have promises. It keeps working too well, eg Dion Waiters a soph who averaged 12 ppg 2 apg went #4 due to a fake promise and pull out.

The sad fact is that these days the best way to get your client drafted as high as possible is to hide & obscure as much as possible.

It's become such a game. And honestly I really truly believe that there are a lot of idiots involved in a lot of NBA teams draft processes. I have to laugh when I hear poster say oh these guys are professionals and they're the experts. So many of them got their jobs with nepotism... knowing somebody... being an X player who really doesn't know how to evaluate. Some people have an eye for talent naturally and some people just don't.

Look what Michael Porter Jr pulled off last year and the guy could barely walk and he got drafted in the lottery. Hasn't really played basketball in how long now? I mean ffs all you have to do is watch the couple of games that he did play in college and it was so clear that he was having major problems with his back even then 5 months after his surgery.

Lies, fake promises, guys pulling out of workouts, etc. Some of these NBA executives are so afraid of missing out on the next big thing that they fall for this crap. And then you get this groupthink herd mentality about certain players and I'll sit here and watch the same guys in wonder what the hell these morons are even talking about.

kodo is 100% correct. It's become a game to show as little as you possibly can. Most of these guys have already played a full College season and you can see what they are all about and what they can do.... all they can do at this point is hurt themselves in a team sanctioned work out where they actually have to play 5 on 5 or even 3 on 3. So we wind up with these choreographed "Pro days" and garbage like that that only shows the players best side.

I love it even more when a poster comes in and acts like people who dedicate 40 hours a week year round into evaluating players are idiots. The draft is an imperfect science and there is plenty of reasonable ground to disagree. A coach's son who has been doing this for 20 years full-time and has access to information and sources that don't reach the public can't possibly know something. We should trust Johnnyvann's "natural eye" for youtube mixtapes.

Your MPJ example is perfect. You have zero access to the medicals, zero access to much of his pre-college tape, zero interviews with the kid, ran zero background checks, but you knew he was a bust. No, that's how it worked out. There was a lot of uncertainty, so a guy projected to go top 3 went #14, a reasonable compromise even if it's not one I would have done at 14. We will see if they regret not taking Zhaire Smith, their backup option. So far he looks to have plenty of bust potential.

The league is hurting itself by letting players get away with this. Instead of punishing them (through a drop in draft stock) for not providing info (either workouts, medicals, measurements), the league tends to reward them which continues the cycle.

[Mech Engineer]

This isn't about any prospect or even our pick, but this article sums up why the draft is headed in a bad direction due to agencies.

From ESPN / Givony:

With the NBA combine in the rearview and just over three weeks until teams are on the clock to make their picks, the pre-draft process is officially underway.

The final 10 days of May have been completely taken over by agency-sponsored pro days, with executives shuttling among more than a dozen showcases in Atlanta, Phoenix, New York, Chicago, Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Agencies conduct pro days because they allow them to accentuate the strengths of their clients while masking weaknesses.

Study the sideline of any pro day, and you'll see a who's who of NBA executives, coaches, players and top-level decision-makers for virtually every team. As the NCAA regular season fades into the distant memory of the NBA consciousness, more recent impressions and experiences can overpower and distort the decision-making process.

"We've completely lost control of the pre-draft process, and we have no one to blame but ourselves," one general manager lamented. "Instead of spending time getting to know the guys we are about to invest millions of dollars in, as well as our job security and having our coaching staffs put players through meaningful workouts, we are sitting in traffic on the 405, shuffling between airports and watching celebrity trainers put players through dog and pony shows, with highly scripted routines against cones that tell us absolutely nothing about how they might perform in an actual game."

How does a player such as Georgios Papagiannis become a lottery pick after averaging 1.5 points per game in the Euroleague? He couldn't miss in his pro day. How does Rashad Vaughn rise from the mid-second round to the No. 17 pick on draft night? By getting hot and looking the part in workouts.

Who will be fooled this year? We'll have to wait and see how things play out. -- Givony

I bet most of these guys who pulled out don't even have promises. It keeps working too well, eg Dion Waiters a soph who averaged 12 ppg 2 apg went #4 due to a fake promise and pull out.

The sad fact is that these days the best way to get your client drafted as high as possible is to hide & obscure as much as possible.

It's become such a game. And honestly I really truly believe that there are a lot of idiots involved in a lot of NBA teams draft processes. I have to laugh when I hear poster say oh these guys are professionals and they're the experts. So many of them got their jobs with nepotism... knowing somebody... being an X player who really doesn't know how to evaluate. Some people have an eye for talent naturally and some people just don't.

Look what Michael Porter Jr pulled off last year and the guy could barely walk and he got drafted in the lottery. Hasn't really played basketball in how long now? I mean ffs all you have to do is watch the couple of games that he did play in college and it was so clear that he was having major problems with his back even then 5 months after his surgery.

Lies, fake promises, guys pulling out of workouts, etc. Some of these NBA executives are so afraid of missing out on the next big thing that they fall for this crap. And then you get this groupthink herd mentality about certain players and I'll sit here and watch the same guys in wonder what the hell these morons are even talking about.

kodo is 100% correct. It's become a game to show as little as you possibly can. Most of these guys have already played a full College season and you can see what they are all about and what they can do.... all they can do at this point is hurt themselves in a team sanctioned work out where they actually have to play 5 on 5 or even 3 on 3. So we wind up with these choreographed "Pro days" and garbage like that that only shows the players best side.

As you say, most of these GMs are playing the odds. A real GM's job is things like cap management, creative trades, free agency wooing by explaining future team structure etc...and not these stupid draft process. I like the draft process because it is entertainment but I don't believe anyone really knows what they are doing. It is all pure luck with some hits and misses and somebody who has a couple of more hits becomes a genius drafting GM.

If you look at how GarPax watched Jimmy everyday in their system/practice floor and couldn't figure out he was worth 50 or more million(when they lowballed him initially), that tells you how difficult the evaluation process is. If they are deciding on a kid 1 year out from high school who they have watched on videos, did some interviews is a process destined for failure most of the time when the standards to excel are so high.

I don't fault the trainers because the stupid GMs are not confident of the process. If they were, they wouldn't be doing this traveling for pro-workouts as if they will see something new. They are assuming they are doing due diligence but might be getting more confused int the process. After the initial obvious tiers/rankings of these players, everything else is trying to separate 2 similar looking noodles in a bowl.

[bad knees]

I don't completely disagree with your assessment, but I don't mind taking a high floor/low ceiling player. The Bulls adding young talent that will deliver has value given that 80% of the players picked after 7 probably won't be in the NBA in 5 years

But more importantly, the problem with a trade down is the Bulls need less young talent. A team needs veterans to grow and we already have too many guys on their first contract. Adding four more rookies to a team with a very young core is only going to complicate the locker room and team structure. It's a step in the wrong direction. They need to be bringing in vets. I would be ok with trading 7 for a vet before trading for more picks this year (future firsts or something like 7/38 for 8/10 could be a different story).

Good points about adding a lot of rookies. But in my view, it would not be 4. Samanic is extremely raw, and I would use 38 on someone like Jontay Porter if it is not bundled with another pick to move up. Take two swings at young guys with big upside. Neither will need a lot, or any, minutes next year. Johnson and Edwards could contribute next year right away.

7 and 38 for 8 and 10 is a pipe dream. As for trading for a vet, do you have any vet in mind - one that includes a decent theory as to why a team would want to trade him for 7 in this draft? Because I certainly don't see one out there.

Sure, if they for example took Goga and left him in Europe I’d be ok with it.

And yes the Atlanta deal isnt very realistic. I’m just operating off the rumors they’re really high on Culver and there are scenarios where it goes Garland, Hunter, White leaving Culver as the only guy in that tier available. The Bulls would take Culver so ATL would have to make this type of move.

I am alone, but I’d be interested in #7 + every contract you might not want (Felicio + Dunn + maybe Val) for Mike Conley. I believe he would help the growth of the core so much more than any likely prospect and it wouldn’t matter his age. He’d be tradeable again after next year, or more realistically, held onto as an expiring contract for the summer of 2021 where they could again pursue a max free agent (or two depending on Otto) before the new contracts come due.

Hmm. Conley might be the best get-better-asap option. We'd have him for two years (no way he opts out of the second year when he is due to make $34 M). He'd be a great add for our offense, although he is a significant negative on the defensive side. If we forced MEM to eat Felicio, Dunn and Val, we'd have about $10.5 M in cap space and could add another vet at slightly more than the MLE price, and then add a Room MLE vet to boot. That's appealing after the last two years.

In 2021, we would have Lauri with a $20 M cap hold, a few guys on rookie contracts, and Conley and Porter with massive cap holds. We would be in a position to offer two max FA contracts if we renounce Conley and Porter (or re-sign those guys if that is the best path). If Lauri and WCJ can demonstrate that they are playoff worthy contributors over the next couple of years, we might be a nice destination for whoever comes available that summer (I have no idea who is on that list).

The biggest challenge I see with your plan is that MEM is not likely to take on more than Felicio if they are trading Conley. He still has value around the league. If we are forced to stretch Dunn and Val (rather than trade them), then we would have only $7.5 M in cap space this summer. And if the Bulls just keep them on the roster, then we would have no cap room at all.

Although I would love to have a Jimmy homecoming, and can conjure up a lot of reasons why it would be good for all concerned, I don't see it happening given that Pax already admitted that the OPJ trade was the equivalent of the the Bulls' FA signing for the summer. He won't change his mind. But maybe he would be interested in replicating the OPJ trade scenario with Conley.

After moving back and forth, I think that my preferred approach would be trade down this draft, and use all of our cap space to sign either Collision or Beverley to a two-year contract. We should be able to get either of them if we offer $17 M a year for two years, and they would provide 80 % of what Conley would provide. And that way we would enter 2021 with this year's rookies on the roster as opposed to just LM and WCJ. I think we would still have enough room for two max FAs, and our roster hopefully would be more enticing to FAs based on the presence of this year's draft class.

And avoiding the trade for Conley keeps open the possibility of a Jimmy signing this summer, which would be the best of all outcomes.

[SfBull]

It'd be pretty surprising if Garland isn't the Lakers pick, especially after reading the article about the Lakers today where it shows how much influence Rich Paul has on the team. Garland is the only rookie hanging out with a pro non-stop right now.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

I just don’t get how Garland fits with that team. They just drafted Ball. I don’t think either Ball or Garland are guys that will be that effective with the ball not in their hands. Then you add LeBron, and the fit seems even weirder.

I think Hunter makes more sense for them.

I think they have every intention of trading Ball, and I think it will be to the Bulls.

Hopefully not.Sign Rose and get a pg by draft or try to sell a package with Dunn /Valentine/#38 for an average point for sharing minutes with DRose.

[cjbulls]

Good points about adding a lot of rookies. But in my view, it would not be 4. Samanic is extremely raw, and I would use 38 on someone like Jontay Porter if it is not bundled with another pick to move up. Take two swings at young guys with big upside. Neither will need a lot, or any, minutes next year. Johnson and Edwards could contribute next year right away.

7 and 38 for 8 and 10 is a pipe dream. As for trading for a vet, do you have any vet in mind - one that includes a decent theory as to why a team would want to trade him for 7 in this draft? Because I certainly don't see one out there.

Sure, if they for example took Goga and left him in Europe I’d be ok with it.

And yes the Atlanta deal isnt very realistic. I’m just operating off the rumors they’re really high on Culver and there are scenarios where it goes Garland, Hunter, White leaving Culver as the only guy in that tier available. The Bulls would take Culver so ATL would have to make this type of move.

I am alone, but I’d be interested in #7 + every contract you might not want (Felicio + Dunn + maybe Val) for Mike Conley. I believe he would help the growth of the core so much more than any likely prospect and it wouldn’t matter his age. He’d be tradeable again after next year, or more realistically, held onto as an expiring contract for the summer of 2021 where they could again pursue a max free agent (or two depending on Otto) before the new contracts come due.

Hmm. Conley might be the best get-better-asap option. We'd have him for two years (no way he opts out of the second year when he is due to make $34 M). He'd be a great add for our offense, although he is a significant negative on the defensive side. If we forced MEM to eat Felicio, Dunn and Val, we'd have about $10.5 M in cap space and could add another vet at slightly more than the MLE price, and then add a Room MLE vet to boot. That's appealing after the last two years.

In 2021, we would have Lauri with a $20 M cap hold, a few guys on rookie contracts, and Conley and Porter with massive cap holds. We would be in a position to offer two max FA contracts if we renounce Conley and Porter (or re-sign those guys if that is the best path). If Lauri and WCJ can demonstrate that they are playoff worthy contributors over the next couple of years, we might be a nice destination for whoever comes available that summer (I have no idea who is on that list).

The biggest challenge I see with your plan is that MEM is not likely to take on more than Felicio if they are trading Conley. He still has value around the league. If we are forced to stretch Dunn and Val (rather than trade them), then we would have only $7.5 M in cap space this summer. And if the Bulls just keep them on the roster, then we would have no cap room at all.

Although I would love to have a Jimmy homecoming, and can conjure up a lot of reasons why it would be good for all concerned, I don't see it happening given that Pax already admitted that the OPJ trade was the equivalent of the the Bulls' FA signing for the summer. He won't change his mind. But maybe he would be interested in replicating the OPJ trade scenario with Conley.

After moving back and forth, I think that my preferred approach would be trade down this draft, and use all of our cap space to sign either Collision or Beverley to a two-year contract. We should be able to get either of them if we offer $17 M a year for two years, and they would provide 80 % of what Conley would provide. And that way we would enter 2021 with this year's rookies on the roster as opposed to just LM and WCJ. I think we would still have enough room for two max FAs, and our roster hopefully would be more enticing to FAs based on the presence of this year's draft class.

And avoiding the trade for Conley keeps open the possibility of a Jimmy signing this summer, which would be the best of all outcomes.

Yes, I agree the dollar to numbers produced for Conley doesn't add up versus free agents, but I don't think there's a player in FA who can actually make the rest of the team better outside of maybe Rubio (who has a lot of other flaws). The other guys are plug-ins who can deliver numbers, but not affect the team. And the Bulls are desperately missing leaders.

I think of it like investing the draft pick in boosting the talent of the core rather than just adding to the core. It relies on the theory that certain vets and specifically certain vet playmakers can make players around them better for the future. There is plenty room for disagreement.

[bad knees]

Sure, if they for example took Goga and left him in Europe I’d be ok with it.

And yes the Atlanta deal isnt very realistic. I’m just operating off the rumors they’re really high on Culver and there are scenarios where it goes Garland, Hunter, White leaving Culver as the only guy in that tier available. The Bulls would take Culver so ATL would have to make this type of move.

I am alone, but I’d be interested in #7 + every contract you might not want (Felicio + Dunn + maybe Val) for Mike Conley. I believe he would help the growth of the core so much more than any likely prospect and it wouldn’t matter his age. He’d be tradeable again after next year, or more realistically, held onto as an expiring contract for the summer of 2021 where they could again pursue a max free agent (or two depending on Otto) before the new contracts come due.

Hmm. Conley might be the best get-better-asap option. We'd have him for two years (no way he opts out of the second year when he is due to make $34 M). He'd be a great add for our offense, although he is a significant negative on the defensive side. If we forced MEM to eat Felicio, Dunn and Val, we'd have about $10.5 M in cap space and could add another vet at slightly more than the MLE price, and then add a Room MLE vet to boot. That's appealing after the last two years.

In 2021, we would have Lauri with a $20 M cap hold, a few guys on rookie contracts, and Conley and Porter with massive cap holds. We would be in a position to offer two max FA contracts if we renounce Conley and Porter (or re-sign those guys if that is the best path). If Lauri and WCJ can demonstrate that they are playoff worthy contributors over the next couple of years, we might be a nice destination for whoever comes available that summer (I have no idea who is on that list).

The biggest challenge I see with your plan is that MEM is not likely to take on more than Felicio if they are trading Conley. He still has value around the league. If we are forced to stretch Dunn and Val (rather than trade them), then we would have only $7.5 M in cap space this summer. And if the Bulls just keep them on the roster, then we would have no cap room at all.

Although I would love to have a Jimmy homecoming, and can conjure up a lot of reasons why it would be good for all concerned, I don't see it happening given that Pax already admitted that the OPJ trade was the equivalent of the the Bulls' FA signing for the summer. He won't change his mind. But maybe he would be interested in replicating the OPJ trade scenario with Conley.

After moving back and forth, I think that my preferred approach would be trade down this draft, and use all of our cap space to sign either Collision or Beverley to a two-year contract. We should be able to get either of them if we offer $17 M a year for two years, and they would provide 80 % of what Conley would provide. And that way we would enter 2021 with this year's rookies on the roster as opposed to just LM and WCJ. I think we would still have enough room for two max FAs, and our roster hopefully would be more enticing to FAs based on the presence of this year's draft class.

And avoiding the trade for Conley keeps open the possibility of a Jimmy signing this summer, which would be the best of all outcomes.

Yes, I agree the dollar to numbers produced for Conley doesn't add up versus free agents, but I don't think there's a player in FA who can actually make the rest of the team better outside of maybe Rubio (who has a lot of other flaws). The other guys are plug-ins who can deliver numbers, but not affect the team. And the Bulls are desperately missing leaders.

I think of it like investing the draft pick in boosting the talent of the core rather than just adding to the core. It relies on the theory that certain vets and specifically certain vet playmakers can make players around them better for the future. There is plenty room for disagreement.

I generally agree. Although I think that Pat Bev would be great for our culture. He would immediately take charge and would demand that our young guys play with passion and grit.

[cjbulls]

Hmm. Conley might be the best get-better-asap option. We'd have him for two years (no way he opts out of the second year when he is due to make $34 M). He'd be a great add for our offense, although he is a significant negative on the defensive side. If we forced MEM to eat Felicio, Dunn and Val, we'd have about $10.5 M in cap space and could add another vet at slightly more than the MLE price, and then add a Room MLE vet to boot. That's appealing after the last two years.

In 2021, we would have Lauri with a $20 M cap hold, a few guys on rookie contracts, and Conley and Porter with massive cap holds. We would be in a position to offer two max FA contracts if we renounce Conley and Porter (or re-sign those guys if that is the best path). If Lauri and WCJ can demonstrate that they are playoff worthy contributors over the next couple of years, we might be a nice destination for whoever comes available that summer (I have no idea who is on that list).

The biggest challenge I see with your plan is that MEM is not likely to take on more than Felicio if they are trading Conley. He still has value around the league. If we are forced to stretch Dunn and Val (rather than trade them), then we would have only $7.5 M in cap space this summer. And if the Bulls just keep them on the roster, then we would have no cap room at all.

Although I would love to have a Jimmy homecoming, and can conjure up a lot of reasons why it would be good for all concerned, I don't see it happening given that Pax already admitted that the OPJ trade was the equivalent of the the Bulls' FA signing for the summer. He won't change his mind. But maybe he would be interested in replicating the OPJ trade scenario with Conley.

After moving back and forth, I think that my preferred approach would be trade down this draft, and use all of our cap space to sign either Collision or Beverley to a two-year contract. We should be able to get either of them if we offer $17 M a year for two years, and they would provide 80 % of what Conley would provide. And that way we would enter 2021 with this year's rookies on the roster as opposed to just LM and WCJ. I think we would still have enough room for two max FAs, and our roster hopefully would be more enticing to FAs based on the presence of this year's draft class.

And avoiding the trade for Conley keeps open the possibility of a Jimmy signing this summer, which would be the best of all outcomes.

Yes, I agree the dollar to numbers produced for Conley doesn't add up versus free agents, but I don't think there's a player in FA who can actually make the rest of the team better outside of maybe Rubio (who has a lot of other flaws). The other guys are plug-ins who can deliver numbers, but not affect the team. And the Bulls are desperately missing leaders.

I think of it like investing the draft pick in boosting the talent of the core rather than just adding to the core. It relies on the theory that certain vets and specifically certain vet playmakers can make players around them better for the future. There is plenty room for disagreement.

I generally agree. Although I think that Pat Bev would be great for our culture. He would immediately take charge and would demand that our young guys play with passion and grit.

That's right. I am sort of single-minded in improving the offensive side of things. Beverly would be culture changing for defense and toughness. He also would help spacing with his 3pt shooting. I just don't see him as an offensive difference maker for others' development. Beverly is unofficially my top choice as a realistic FA signing.

[SfBull]

This is going to be a really interesting thread to revisit a year from now.

I was just reading last years draft thread from around this time a year ago. It's a gas.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1715795&start=140

FYI, anything I wrote about Trey Young, it wasn’t me. I was hacked. But only for those posts. Weird.

Yep me too.

I was wrong about Trae, completely. Kudos to those that were really high on him, I know Suz was.. bravo.

The guys I was high on were Luka, JJJ, Carter, and SGA.

I liked taking a swing on Bamba too, still think he’s got a shot at being special in a couple seasons... though he was more of a project than I expected.

It’s still crazy to me how many people were loudly wanting MPJ.

Bamba didn't have the same space for growing up coming from the bench in Orlando.

[Mech Engineer]

It will be interesting to compare the guys who spent 2/3/4 years in college, became good NBA players against 1 and done players, became good NBA players(assume decent health). I see all these guys like Igoudala, Gasol, Taj all being productive at late ages while similarly talented guys are out earlier than them. And, it's not like these 1 and done guys are usually productive from Day 1. They spend the first 3/4 years in the NBA being bad while also getting beat up physically unlike the 4 year college guys.

It irritates me to see the age comments about Jimmy or Taj. Those guys have less mileage or less years in the NBA which means they can grow more compared to the same age guys who were 1 and done. It shows in the way these guys developed their game late in their 20s by adding something to their game compared to the guys who had 4/5 years experience and were 23/24 years old.

I mostly agree with your argument, but which Gasol brother are you using as an example of playing several years in college? Which NCAA conference does Barcelona play in?

It doesn't have to be college but anywhere...G league, Euro league etc... Both the Gasol brothers came to the NBA after a few years of seasoning in a lower level league.

[BigUps]

This isn't about any prospect or even our pick, but this article sums up why the draft is headed in a bad direction due to agencies.

From ESPN / Givony:

With the NBA combine in the rearview and just over three weeks until teams are on the clock to make their picks, the pre-draft process is officially underway.

The final 10 days of May have been completely taken over by agency-sponsored pro days, with executives shuttling among more than a dozen showcases in Atlanta, Phoenix, New York, Chicago, Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Agencies conduct pro days because they allow them to accentuate the strengths of their clients while masking weaknesses.

Study the sideline of any pro day, and you'll see a who's who of NBA executives, coaches, players and top-level decision-makers for virtually every team. As the NCAA regular season fades into the distant memory of the NBA consciousness, more recent impressions and experiences can overpower and distort the decision-making process.

"We've completely lost control of the pre-draft process, and we have no one to blame but ourselves," one general manager lamented. "Instead of spending time getting to know the guys we are about to invest millions of dollars in, as well as our job security and having our coaching staffs put players through meaningful workouts, we are sitting in traffic on the 405, shuffling between airports and watching celebrity trainers put players through dog and pony shows, with highly scripted routines against cones that tell us absolutely nothing about how they might perform in an actual game."

How does a player such as Georgios Papagiannis become a lottery pick after averaging 1.5 points per game in the Euroleague? He couldn't miss in his pro day. How does Rashad Vaughn rise from the mid-second round to the No. 17 pick on draft night? By getting hot and looking the part in workouts.

Who will be fooled this year? We'll have to wait and see how things play out. -- Givony

I bet most of these guys who pulled out don't even have promises. It keeps working too well, eg Dion Waiters a soph who averaged 12 ppg 2 apg went #4 due to a fake promise and pull out.

The sad fact is that these days the best way to get your client drafted as high as possible is to hide & obscure as much as possible.

It's become such a game. And honestly I really truly believe that there are a lot of idiots involved in a lot of NBA teams draft processes. I have to laugh when I hear poster say oh these guys are professionals and they're the experts. So many of them got their jobs with nepotism... knowing somebody... being an X player who really doesn't know how to evaluate. Some people have an eye for talent naturally and some people just don't.

Look what Michael Porter Jr pulled off last year and the guy could barely walk and he got drafted in the lottery. Hasn't really played basketball in how long now? I mean ffs all you have to do is watch the couple of games that he did play in college and it was so clear that he was having major problems with his back even then 5 months after his surgery.

Lies, fake promises, guys pulling out of workouts, etc. Some of these NBA executives are so afraid of missing out on the next big thing that they fall for this crap. And then you get this groupthink herd mentality about certain players and I'll sit here and watch the same guys in wonder what the hell these morons are even talking about.

kodo is 100% correct. It's become a game to show as little as you possibly can. Most of these guys have already played a full College season and you can see what they are all about and what they can do.... all they can do at this point is hurt themselves in a team sanctioned work out where they actually have to play 5 on 5 or even 3 on 3. So we wind up with these choreographed "Pro days" and garbage like that that only shows the players best side.

There is no way to stop this unless you completely overhaul the draft system, so we kind of just have to accept it. At least there is a year (or more) of tape on the players now days. Its going to get a lot worse once the one and done rule is gone. Although, I do hope that when the one and done rule is gone it only beefs up the developmental league. Stash players like in baseball and build a team from within an organization would be ideal.

[SfBull]

I have not been on the DeAndre Hunter's bandwagon, but I'd be ok with the pick. At this point, there is no one that we are going to select at number 7 that's going to make a difference right way, unless guys like Zion, Ja or Barrett miraculously drop. So, the best strategy now is to accumulate young assets for a potential blockbuster move, when and if it comes.

That's it.

[KevinPandawong]

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Darius Bazley is my clear-cut choice for #38, though I suspect he gets selected higher with Philly owning #33 & #34.
The Bulls should be looking at any and all options to clear Dunn and/or Valentine's contracts to move up from the Grizzlies' position. If that puts them in range for THT, he is the ultimate buy low project in this draft with Bazley close behind.

[johnnyvann840]

This isn't about any prospect or even our pick, but this article sums up why the draft is headed in a bad direction due to agencies.

From ESPN / Givony:


I bet most of these guys who pulled out don't even have promises. It keeps working too well, eg Dion Waiters a soph who averaged 12 ppg 2 apg went #4 due to a fake promise and pull out.

The sad fact is that these days the best way to get your client drafted as high as possible is to hide & obscure as much as possible.

It's become such a game. And honestly I really truly believe that there are a lot of idiots involved in a lot of NBA teams draft processes. I have to laugh when I hear poster say oh these guys are professionals and they're the experts. So many of them got their jobs with nepotism... knowing somebody... being an X player who really doesn't know how to evaluate. Some people have an eye for talent naturally and some people just don't.

Look what Michael Porter Jr pulled off last year and the guy could barely walk and he got drafted in the lottery. Hasn't really played basketball in how long now? I mean ffs all you have to do is watch the couple of games that he did play in college and it was so clear that he was having major problems with his back even then 5 months after his surgery.

Lies, fake promises, guys pulling out of workouts, etc. Some of these NBA executives are so afraid of missing out on the next big thing that they fall for this crap. And then you get this groupthink herd mentality about certain players and I'll sit here and watch the same guys in wonder what the hell these morons are even talking about.

kodo is 100% correct. It's become a game to show as little as you possibly can. Most of these guys have already played a full College season and you can see what they are all about and what they can do.... all they can do at this point is hurt themselves in a team sanctioned work out where they actually have to play 5 on 5 or even 3 on 3. So we wind up with these choreographed "Pro days" and garbage like that that only shows the players best side.

I love it even more when a poster comes in and acts like people who dedicate 40 hours a week year round into evaluating players are idiots. The draft is an imperfect science and there is plenty of reasonable ground to disagree. A coach's son who has been doing this for 20 years full-time and has access to information and sources that don't reach the public can't possibly know something. We should trust Johnnyvann's "natural eye" for youtube mixtapes.

Your MPJ example is perfect. You have zero access to the medicals, zero access to much of his pre-college tape, zero interviews with the kid, ran zero background checks, but you knew he was a bust. No, that's how it worked out. There was a lot of uncertainty, so a guy projected to go top 3 went #14, a reasonable compromise even if it's not one I would have done at 14. We will see if they regret not taking Zhaire Smith, their backup option. So far he looks to have plenty of bust potential.

The league is hurting itself by letting players get away with this. Instead of punishing them (through a drop in draft stock) for not providing info (either workouts, medicals, measurements), the league tends to reward them which continues the cycle.

Let me put it really simple for you cj. I'm just a nobody and I can't claim to be an expert on anything basketball, BUT, I will put my draft boards and my talent evals against any NBA teams for the last 5 years and I would do extremely well. Just because somebody has a job and a title and does something for 40 hrs a week (which is a joke to begin with), doesn't mean they're good at it. I'm 53 years old and if if there is one thing I've learned in life it's to question EVERYTHING. Don't trust anybody else's opinion on something when you can see it for yourself. Trust you own eyes. In these cases none of this stuff is secret... it's all out there. I've had the advantage of knowing some people and can go sit in an editing bay at a major sports network and have game footage and pretty much whatever right at my fingertips. That helps. But again, I don't get paid to give my opinion and I don't care. Doesn't mean I would trust some guy because he works for an NBA team unless he's already proven himself to me in some way. Most of them haven't. Hell, I would take SEVERAL posters here and put more value on their opinions than I would a lot of NBA execs... especially the ones who got their jobs through nepotism, cronyism, etc. GimmeDat probably knows more than most of these players than a lot of those clowns do. Seriously.

Regarding Porter. Only an idiot couldn't have seen this coming. The kid looked like a stiff 5 months after having his first surgery and that was the only basketball he played since high school. It is going to be 2.5 years since he last played competitive basketball healthy and that was in highschool (not counting his debacle at the end of his one year at Mizzou because he looked bad and hurt) if he even plays this season. He's a walking disabled list waiting to happen. We had doctors here on this site telling us how foolish and risky it would be to draft a kid like him after microdiscetomy. Luckily, the Bulls didn't fall for his lies and fraudulent behavior leading up to the draft.

[JimmyJammer]

According to this article, apparently, 9 out of 10 mock drafts have the Bulls picking Coby White at 7, which is the closest to a consensus that you are going to find outside of the top 3 picks. If you are a Bulls fan and you happen to not like White for any reason, you better hold on to your Bible and start praying for another team to pick him before 7. I, on the other hand, have no problem with this turn of events.

Looks like the Bulls might be going for a point guard with the No. 7 pick, if our prognosticators are correct. That point guard would be North Carolina’s Coby White, who heads to Chicago in nine of our 10 mock drafts. The Bulls have Kris Dunn already, but they may not be sold on him as their long-term solution at the point.

https://www.nba.com/draft/2019/consensus-mock-draft

[Red Larrivee]

According to this article, apparently, 9 out of 10 mock drafts have the Bulls picking Coby White at 7, which is the closest to a consensus that you are going to find outside of the top 3 picks. If you are a Bulls fan and you happen to not like White for any reason, you better hold on to your Bible and start praying for another team to pick him before 7. I, on the other hand, have no problem with this turn of events.

Looks like the Bulls might be going for a point guard with the No. 7 pick, if our prognosticators are correct. That point guard would be North Carolina’s Coby White, who heads to Chicago in nine of our 10 mock drafts. The Bulls have Kris Dunn already, but they may not be sold on him as their long-term solution at the point.

https://www.nba.com/draft/2019/consensus-mock-draft

Only problem with this is that White is rumored to have a Top 6 promise.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

According to this article, apparently, 9 out of 10 mock drafts have the Bulls picking Coby White at 7, which is the closest to a consensus that you are going to find outside of the top 3 picks. If you are a Bulls fan and you happen to not like White for any reason, you better hold on to your Bible and start praying for another team to pick him before 7. I, on the other hand, have no problem with this turn of events.

Looks like the Bulls might be going for a point guard with the No. 7 pick, if our prognosticators are correct. That point guard would be North Carolina’s Coby White, who heads to Chicago in nine of our 10 mock drafts. The Bulls have Kris Dunn already, but they may not be sold on him as their long-term solution at the point.

https://www.nba.com/draft/2019/consensus-mock-draft

Maybe the Bulls would draft Coby White, maybe not. But a lot of these mocks have him going to Chicago because of lazy thinking.

The Bulls need a PG + Garland is off the board = Bulls draft Coby White. That's it.

I knew this would happen post-lottery, and I hate how boring it's made a lot of the pre-draft analysis.