Wizards 2019 Draft Thread - Part II

[taj2133]

nassir little and nick alexander walker workout video from there charlotte hornets workout the other day.

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[FAH1223]

Draft predictions:

ESPN- Sekou Doumbouya (Forward - France)

CBS Sports (3) - Romeo Langford (Guard - Indiana), Bol Bol (Center - Oregon), Jaxson Hayes (C - Texas)

The Ringer - Goga Bitadze (Center - Georgia)

SB Nation - Cameron Reddish (Forward - Duke)

Bleacher Report - Jaxson Hayes (Center - Texas)

Sports Illustrated - Sekou Doumbouya (Forward - France)

The Athletic ($) - Nassir Little (Forward, North Carolina)

Yahoo! Sports - P.J. Washington (Forward, Kentucky)

USA Today - Jaxson Hayes (Center - Texas)

FOX Sports - Cameron Reddish (Forward, Duke)

The Big Lead - Sekou Doumbouya (Forward - France)

NBC Sports Washington - Rui Hachimura (Forward - Gonzaga)

Sporting News - Jaxson Hayes (Center - Texas)

NBADraft.net - Nassir Little (Forward - North Carolina)

LA Times - Romeo Langford (Guard - Indiana)

Rotoworld - Sekou Doumbouya (Forward - France)

HoopsHabit - Jaxson Hayes (Center - Texas)

[Dat2U]

Some drafts have no tier 1 talent. This draft has 2 IMO.

Some drafts have 4-5 tier 2 guys, this draft has none IMO.

The depth of the draft is role players & guys with all the physical tools but they lack in one or more of the skill areas. Actually I think its unusually loaded with guys missing a jumper or having some significant flaw that will have a good chance at derailing their careers. Lots of quality role players though. Teams looking for all-stars in the lottery are going to be sorely disappointed. . Vice versa, playoff teams looking for solid role players later in the 1st round may look at this draft very differently.

Tier 1a - generational talent

1. PF Zion Williamson

Tier 1b - franchise player talent

2. PG Ja Morant

Tier 2 - all-star talent

None

Tier 3 - starting caliber talent

3. G Darius Garland
4. C Goga Bitadze
5. G/F R.J. Barrett

Tier 4 - solid role player talent

6. SG Tyler Herro
7. C Bol Bol
8. PF P.J. Washington
9. PF Brandon Clarke
10. C Mfiondu Kabengele
11. F DeAndre Hunter
12. C Jaxson Hayes
13. PF Sekou Doumbouya
14. SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker
15. G Coby White
16. G/F Jarrett Culver
17. PF Grant Williams
18. PF Luka Samanic

Tier 5 - good depth - playable rotation talent.

19. SF Dylan Windler
20. SF Keldon Johnson
21. SF Matisse Thybulle
22. G Ty Jerome
23. C Bruno Fernando
24. C Jontay Porter

Tier 6 - developmental prospects / deep bench guys

25. F Darius Bazley
26. PG Shamorie Ponds
27. PF Dedric Lawson
28. C Daniel Gafford
29. SF Terrance Mann
30. C Nic Claxton
31. SF Cameron Johnson
32. SF Nassir Little
33. F KZ Okpala
34. G/F Romeo Langford
35. SF Cam Reddish
36. SF Talen Horton-Tucker
37. PF Chuma Okeke
38. PF Rui Hachimura
39. PG Carsen Edwards
40. SF Louis King
41. C Ethan Happ

Tier 7 - Next stop G-League or overseas

42. G Luguentz Dort
43. SG Charles Matthews
44. F Isaiah Roby
45. G Joshua Obiesie
46. C Sagaba Konate
47. F Jalen McDaniels
48. SG Kevin Porter Jr
49. SF Admiral Schofield
50. SF Yovel Zoosman
51. G Jalen Lecque
52. SG CJ Massinburg
53. C Naz Reid
54. SF Iggy Brazdeikis
55. SG Zach Norvell
56. F Aric Holman
57. C Dean Wade
58. C Tacko Fall
59. PF Eric Paschall
60. PG Tremont Waters

[nate33]

Draft predictions:

ESPN- Sekou Doumbouya (Forward - France)

CBS Sports (3) - Romeo Langford (Guard - Indiana), Bol Bol (Center - Oregon), Jaxson Hayes (C - Texas)

The Ringer - Goga Bitadze (Center - Georgia)

SB Nation - Cameron Reddish (Forward - Duke)

Bleacher Report - Jaxson Hayes (Center - Texas)

Sports Illustrated - Sekou Doumbouya (Forward - France)

The Athletic ($) - Nassir Little (Forward, North Carolina)

Yahoo! Sports - P.J. Washington (Forward, Kentucky)

USA Today - Jaxson Hayes (Center - Texas)

FOX Sports - Cameron Reddish (Forward, Duke)

The Big Lead - Sekou Doumbouya (Forward - France)

NBC Sports Washington - Rui Hachimura (Forward - Gonzaga)

Sporting News - Jaxson Hayes (Center - Texas)

NBADraft.net - Nassir Little (Forward - North Carolina)

LA Times - Romeo Langford (Guard - Indiana)

Rotoworld - Sekou Doumbouya (Forward - France)

HoopsHabit - Jaxson Hayes (Center - Texas)

Interesting.

It seems like almost everyone has the same 5 guys going in slots 1, 2, 3, 6 and 7 (Zion, Morant, Barrett, Garland, White, respectively) with slots 4, 5 and 8 going to Hunter, Culver and a variable third guy. The third guy might be Reddish, Little, or Doumbouya, depending on the mock.

It's hard to say whether that's group think, or if some teams have actually tipped their hand to a handful of reporters. It does appear that nobody has any idea of what is going to happen beyond the 8th pick.

At any rate, it looks like most of the guys we are interested in (except Garland) will still be on the board at #9, particularly if Reddish goes in the 4, 5 or 8 slot. There will be a run on point guards and small forwards early, but all of the power forwards (except Zion and maybe Doumbouya) will be there at #9.

[taj2133]

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[payitforward]

Some drafts have no tier 1 talent. This draft has 2 IMO.

Some drafts have 4-5 tier 2 guys, this draft has none IMO.

The depth of the draft is role players & guys with all the physical tools but they lack in one or more of the skill areas. Actually I think its unusually loaded with guys missing a jumper or having some significant flaw that will have a good chance at derailing their careers. Lots of quality role players though. Teams looking for all-stars in the lottery are going to be sorely disappointed. . Vice versa, playoff teams looking for solid role players later in the 1st round may look at this draft very differently.

Tier 1a - generational talent

1. PF Zion Williamson

Tier 1b - franchise player talent

2. PG Ja Morant

Tier 2 - all-star talent

None

Tier 3 - starting caliber talent

3. G Darius Garland
4. C Goga Bitadze
5. G/F R.J. Barrett

Tier 4 - solid role player talent

6. SG Tyler Herro
7. C Bol Bol
8. PF P.J. Washington
9. PF Brandon Clarke
10. C Mfiondu Kabengele
11. F DeAndre Hunter
12. C Jaxson Hayes
13. PF Sekou Doumbouya
14. SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker
15. G Coby White
16. G/F Jarrett Culver
17. PF Grant Williams
18. PF Luka Samanic

Tier 5 - good depth - playable rotation talent.

19. SF Dylan Windler
20. SF Keldon Johnson
21. SF Matisse Thybulle
22. G Ty Jerome
23. C Bruno Fernando
24. C Jontay Porter

Tier 6 - developmental prospects / deep bench guys

25. F Darius Bazley
26. PG Shamorie Ponds
27. PF Dedric Lawson
28. C Daniel Gafford
29. SF Terrance Mann
30. C Nic Claxton
31. SF Cameron Johnson
32. SF Nassir Little
33. F KZ Okpala
34. G/F Romeo Langford
35. SF Cam Reddish
36. SF Talen Horton-Tucker
37. PF Chuma Okeke
38. PF Rui Hachimura
39. PG Carsen Edwards
40. SF Louis King
41. C Ethan Happ

Tier 7 - Next stop G-League or overseas

42. G Luguentz Dort
43. SG Charles Matthews
44. F Isaiah Roby
45. G Joshua Obiesie
46. C Sagaba Konate
47. F Jalen McDaniels
48. SG Kevin Porter Jr
49. SF Admiral Schofield
50. SF Yovel Zoosman
51. G Jalen Lecque
52. SG CJ Massinburg
53. C Naz Reid
54. SF Iggy Brazdeikis
55. SG Zach Norvell
56. F Aric Holman
57. C Dean Wade
58. C Tacko Fall
59. PF Eric Paschall
60. PG Tremont Waters

A couple of questions/comments:

When Brandon Clarke is a quality starter+ in the league, you'll admit you were wrong about him while I was right, correct?

Tier 6 combines 2 different classes of players, right? Really young guys like Bazley & Claxton; essentially they aren't developed enough to put on a talent-based tier. & guys who have fringe NBA ability.

One thing that interests me is... how far can high bbiq & an understanding of how to play the game take a guy these days if his athleticism is lacking. In this draft, I call that the Dedric Lawson question. This kid shot .393 on 3-pointers & .815 from the line while grabbing 12.6 boards per 40 minutes. Kansas leaned on his production very heavily. It'll be very interesting to see what he's able to do in the league.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Some drafts have no tier 1 talent. This draft has 2 IMO.

Some drafts have 4-5 tier 2 guys, this draft has none IMO.

The depth of the draft is role players & guys with all the physical tools but they lack in one or more of the skill areas. Actually I think its unusually loaded with guys missing a jumper or having some significant flaw that will have a good chance at derailing their careers. Lots of quality role players though. Teams looking for all-stars in the lottery are going to be sorely disappointed. . Vice versa, playoff teams looking for solid role players later in the 1st round may look at this draft very differently.

Tier 1a - generational talent

1. PF Zion Williamson

Tier 1b - franchise player talent

2. PG Ja Morant

Tier 2 - all-star talent

None

Tier 3 - starting caliber talent

3. G Darius Garland
4. C Goga Bitadze
5. G/F R.J. Barrett

Tier 4 - solid role player talent

6. SG Tyler Herro
7. C Bol Bol
8. PF P.J. Washington
9. PF Brandon Clarke
10. C Mfiondu Kabengele
11. F DeAndre Hunter
12. C Jaxson Hayes
13. PF Sekou Doumbouya
14. SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker
15. G Coby White
16. G/F Jarrett Culver
17. PF Grant Williams
18. PF Luka Samanic

Tier 5 - good depth - playable rotation talent.

19. SF Dylan Windler
20. SF Keldon Johnson
21. SF Matisse Thybulle
22. G Ty Jerome
23. C Bruno Fernando
24. C Jontay Porter

Tier 6 - developmental prospects / deep bench guys

25. F Darius Bazley
26. PG Shamorie Ponds
27. PF Dedric Lawson
28. C Daniel Gafford
29. SF Terrance Mann
30. C Nic Claxton
31. SF Cameron Johnson
32. SF Nassir Little
33. F KZ Okpala
34. G/F Romeo Langford
35. SF Cam Reddish
36. SF Talen Horton-Tucker
37. PF Chuma Okeke
38. PF Rui Hachimura
39. PG Carsen Edwards
40. SF Louis King
41. C Ethan Happ

Tier 7 - Next stop G-League or overseas

42. G Luguentz Dort
43. SG Charles Matthews
44. F Isaiah Roby
45. G Joshua Obiesie
46. C Sagaba Konate
47. F Jalen McDaniels
48. SG Kevin Porter Jr
49. SF Admiral Schofield
50. SF Yovel Zoosman
51. G Jalen Lecque
52. SG CJ Massinburg
53. C Naz Reid
54. SF Iggy Brazdeikis
55. SG Zach Norvell
56. F Aric Holman
57. C Dean Wade
58. C Tacko Fall
59. PF Eric Paschall
60. PG Tremont Waters

A couple of questions/comments:

When Brandon Clarke is a quality starter+ in the league, you'll admit you were wrong about him while I was right, correct?

Tier 6 combines 2 different classes of players, right? Really young guys like Bazley & Claxton; essentially they aren't developed enough to put on a talent-based tier. & guys who have fringe NBA ability.

One thing that interests me is... how far can high bbiq & an understanding of how to play the game take a guy these days if his athleticism is lacking. In this draft, I call that the Dedric Lawson question. This kid shot .393 on 3-pointers & .815 from the line while grabbing 12.6 boards per 40 minutes. Kansas leaned on his production very heavily. It'll be very interesting to see what he's able to do in the league.

I know everyone thinks every college player is the next Draymond Green. But, I think Lawson really could be the next Green.

I like his footwork, his motor and his versatility.

[awolfinwater]

...Are you saying that blocks, steals, turnovers, should be weighted higher? I agree and think that's actually pretty interesting and something I'm going to try. There is indeed an option to weigh each column differently for the Euclidean distance algorithm. How would you weigh each category?

Absolutely! They have different effects on the game. Try these weights...

Positive:
Point = 1
Offensive rebound = 1
Defensive rebound = .5
Steal = 1
Assist = .5
Block = .5

Negative:
FGA = -1
FTA = -.4
TO = -1
PF = -.5

...& lets see what you come up with.

I assume you are doing this all per some number of minutes -- i.e. not per game -- or else using total minutes & then adjusting between players based on the difference in minutes.

Also, I assume you are not also doing % stats. I.e. TS% or 2pt FG%, 3pt FG%, etc. If you use those then your result will multiply the effect of the different raw numbers (which, obviously, are the basis of the %s).

Big time lurker on this board but got excited when I saw data sciency basketball analytics.

Couple of suggestions.

1) You need to normalize variables before applying euclidean distance. Otherwise, all of your % features (TS, 3PT, etc...) are outweighed by your total number features (TRB, PTS, etc...). Look into RobustScaler or StandardScaler out of sklearn.

2) Some mentioned weights for the impact of different features towards importance in NBA. That adds some complexity but probably more useful if your goal is to understand projection in the NBA. To do this quickly, I would obtain career NBA WS/48 for each college player in your dataset and build 5 linear regressions (one for each position) to come up with those relative weights. Curious to see what this looks like.

-- Side note: if you do this, you now quickly have a model to estimate NBA performance based on college stats. A lot of people have done this (myself included), and they are typically garbage models. When I got out of the sports analytics game, hand size / standing reach and other measureables had higher predictive power than college performance.

3) Agree with comment on using per possession stats instead of per game. If you use per36, it is proper to Pace adjust those metrics.

4) UI / UX: everyone is on mobile. I'd recommend leveraging bootstrap.js or some responsive framework to spice up the UI. I don't need to see each stat, having the distance converted into a % match and maybe 3/4 stats based on the position would be easier to read. I like the picture profile. Nice touch.


Cool stuff. Hope you enjoyed the app building project. If you're looking to break-in to the industry, continue to hone these skills and take a trip to the Sloan Conference. I think student gets a tremendous discount.



Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Dat2U]

Some drafts have no tier 1 talent. This draft has 2 IMO.

Some drafts have 4-5 tier 2 guys, this draft has none IMO.

The depth of the draft is role players & guys with all the physical tools but they lack in one or more of the skill areas. Actually I think its unusually loaded with guys missing a jumper or having some significant flaw that will have a good chance at derailing their careers. Lots of quality role players though. Teams looking for all-stars in the lottery are going to be sorely disappointed. . Vice versa, playoff teams looking for solid role players later in the 1st round may look at this draft very differently.

Tier 1a - generational talent

1. PF Zion Williamson

Tier 1b - franchise player talent

2. PG Ja Morant

Tier 2 - all-star talent

None

Tier 3 - starting caliber talent

3. G Darius Garland
4. C Goga Bitadze
5. G/F R.J. Barrett

Tier 4 - solid role player talent

6. SG Tyler Herro
7. C Bol Bol
8. PF P.J. Washington
9. PF Brandon Clarke
10. C Mfiondu Kabengele
11. F DeAndre Hunter
12. C Jaxson Hayes
13. PF Sekou Doumbouya
14. SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker
15. G Coby White
16. G/F Jarrett Culver
17. PF Grant Williams
18. PF Luka Samanic

Tier 5 - good depth - playable rotation talent.

19. SF Dylan Windler
20. SF Keldon Johnson
21. SF Matisse Thybulle
22. G Ty Jerome
23. C Bruno Fernando
24. C Jontay Porter

Tier 6 - developmental prospects / deep bench guys

25. F Darius Bazley
26. PG Shamorie Ponds
27. PF Dedric Lawson
28. C Daniel Gafford
29. SF Terrance Mann
30. C Nic Claxton
31. SF Cameron Johnson
32. SF Nassir Little
33. F KZ Okpala
34. G/F Romeo Langford
35. SF Cam Reddish
36. SF Talen Horton-Tucker
37. PF Chuma Okeke
38. PF Rui Hachimura
39. PG Carsen Edwards
40. SF Louis King
41. C Ethan Happ

Tier 7 - Next stop G-League or overseas

42. G Luguentz Dort
43. SG Charles Matthews
44. F Isaiah Roby
45. G Joshua Obiesie
46. C Sagaba Konate
47. F Jalen McDaniels
48. SG Kevin Porter Jr
49. SF Admiral Schofield
50. SF Yovel Zoosman
51. G Jalen Lecque
52. SG CJ Massinburg
53. C Naz Reid
54. SF Iggy Brazdeikis
55. SG Zach Norvell
56. F Aric Holman
57. C Dean Wade
58. C Tacko Fall
59. PF Eric Paschall
60. PG Tremont Waters

A couple of questions/comments:

When Brandon Clarke is a quality starter+ in the league, you'll admit you were wrong about him while I was right, correct?

Tier 6 combines 2 different classes of players, right? Really young guys like Bazley & Claxton; essentially they aren't developed enough to put on a talent-based tier. & guys who have fringe NBA ability.

One thing that interests me is... how far can high bbiq & an understanding of how to play the game take a guy these days if his athleticism is lacking. In this draft, I call that the Dedric Lawson question. This kid shot .393 on 3-pointers & .815 from the line while grabbing 12.6 boards per 40 minutes. Kansas leaned on his production very heavily. It'll be very interesting to see what he's able to do in the league.

I have Clarke 9th, where we pick, lol! I don't dislike him and I think he can be a starter next to a stretch big but b/w the lack of length & center-like skill level I have trouble seeing where the offensive production comes from so I question how good of a starter he would be. Still, I think he's a safe pick and if he went to Wizards he'd probably find a way to contribute positively sooner than later.

Tier Six is a mix of guys who should stick for at least a few years, whether because their athletic profile warrants a patient look in a development program or their an overlooked player who's production outshines their scouting report.

The modern game has evolved so much over the last 10-15 years that I believe we've crossed the threshold where athleticism no longer matters.

People questioned the athleticism of Curry, Harden, Beal, Doncic, Jokic, Trae Young etc etc. It doesn't matter. I finally learned that this year lol. Skill/IQ makes up for a lack of athleticism on offensive end. IQ/Effort & determination makes up for a lack of athleticism on the defensive end.

The rare player is the one that combines elite IQ/skill/athleticism. That player is generational. LeBron, MJ.

[Dat2U]

No trade down? Goga at #9. I know what I've said about the C position but he's clearly the best player that I think will be available where we pick. If were doing the Portland model, he's our Nurkic. Actually, stylistically he's more Enes Kanter but with defensive intensity and shot blocking instincts.

Trade down with Bos for 14 & 22? At 14, If Goga is gone, I'd look at Herro who has similar draft profile to Booker. Not quite the shot creator but he's not just spot up shooter. He's the best pure shooter available. A premium in today's NBA.

At 22, if Bol slips I jump on it if Herro was my guy at 14. Bol has red flags but his height + skill combo is one of a kind. At 22, he's well worth the gamble. If Bol is gone I'd hope a guy like Kabengele, Samanic or Grant Williams is on the board.

Ideal draft:
14 - Goga Bitadze
22 - Luka Samanic

[Shoe]

Masai will take Doumbouya at 9
Shepard Weaver Ferry will probably take Hunter because he'll be there

[doclinkin]

No trade down? Goga at #9. I know what I've said about the C position but he's clearly the best player that I think will be available where we pick. If were doing the Portland model, he's our Nurkic. Actually, stylistically he's more Enes Kanter but with defensive intensity and shot blocking instincts.

Trade down with Bos for 14 & 22? At 14, If Goga is gone, I'd look at Herro who has similar draft profile to Booker. Not quite the shot creator but he's not just spot up shooter. He's the best pure shooter available. A premium in today's NBA.

At 22, if Bol slips I jump on it if Herro was my guy at 14. Bol has red flags but his height + skill combo is one of a kind. At 22, he's well worth the gamble. If Bol is gone I'd hope a guy like Kabengele, Samanic or Grant Williams is on the board.

Ideal draft:
14 - Goga Bitadze
22 - Luka Samanic

Works for me.

[Shoe]

Draft day is finally here. I can't see the Os pass up on Rutschman although Witt is supposedly better than Machado . Nats could take Allan and pay his 4 mil. Langaliers would be nice to have a legit C prospect.

[Rafael122]

Draft predictions:

ESPN- Sekou Doumbouya (Forward - France)

CBS Sports (3) - Romeo Langford (Guard - Indiana), Bol Bol (Center - Oregon), Jaxson Hayes (C - Texas)

The Ringer - Goga Bitadze (Center - Georgia)

SB Nation - Cameron Reddish (Forward - Duke)

Bleacher Report - Jaxson Hayes (Center - Texas)

Sports Illustrated - Sekou Doumbouya (Forward - France)

The Athletic ($) - Nassir Little (Forward, North Carolina)

Yahoo! Sports - P.J. Washington (Forward, Kentucky)

USA Today - Jaxson Hayes (Center - Texas)

FOX Sports - Cameron Reddish (Forward, Duke)

The Big Lead - Sekou Doumbouya (Forward - France)

NBC Sports Washington - Rui Hachimura (Forward - Gonzaga)

Sporting News - Jaxson Hayes (Center - Texas)

NBADraft.net - Nassir Little (Forward - North Carolina)

LA Times - Romeo Langford (Guard - Indiana)

Rotoworld - Sekou Doumbouya (Forward - France)

HoopsHabit - Jaxson Hayes (Center - Texas)

Interesting.

It seems like almost everyone has the same 5 guys going in slots 1, 2, 3, 6 and 7 (Zion, Morant, Barrett, Garland, White, respectively) with slots 4, 5 and 8 going to Hunter, Culver and a variable third guy. The third guy might be Reddish, Little, or Doumbouya, depending on the mock.

It's hard to say whether that's group think, or if some teams have actually tipped their hand to a handful of reporters. It does appear that nobody has any idea of what is going to happen beyond the 8th pick.

At any rate, it looks like most of the guys we are interested in (except Garland) will still be on the board at #9, particularly if Reddish goes in the 4, 5 or 8 slot. There will be a run on point guards and small forwards early, but all of the power forwards (except Zion and maybe Doumbouya) will be there at #9.

Reading the tea leaves, the first 3 picks are Zion, Ja, and RJ.

Garland has a promise from either LA (he's a Klutch client) or Phoenix. White has a top 7 promise allegedly, which could be Phoenix (which means Garland goes to LA) or Chicago.

Cleveland has high interest in Culver apparently.

Chicago could go with Hunter as BPA but that makes no sense b/c they have Porter. Maybe Reddish makes sense at 7, with Hunter going at 8. And of course, someone could always jump after crushing pre-draft workouts.

[taj2133]

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[closg00]

CCJ, where are you with your draft board?

[gravytrain24]

Draft day is finally here. I can't see the Os pass up on Rutschman although Witt is supposedly better than Machado . Nats could take Allan and pay his 4 mil. Langaliers would be nice to have a legit C prospect.

Wrong sports board but I don't think the O's can go wrong on either Rutschmann or Witt. I would lean toward the catcher however.

[80sballboy]

So there's this
https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/wizards-interim-gm-tommy-sheppard-expected-make-nba-draft-decisions

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, where are you with your draft board?

Mental health breakdown...battling homeless situation.

Life got very tough and I was weeks hospitalized.

On a city bus just now finding out that the draft is today.

Sent from my SM-J337T using RealGM mobile app

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Unreal how life can change. Count each one of your blessings.

Thank you to my friend associated with the Wizards back in March. At the Waikiki Marriott. I know that was real.

Peace and love.

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