2019 MLB Draft thread, June 3 - 5

[torontoaces04]

If this isn't the greatest name in this years draft, I don't know what is...

The Jays 16th round selection, Jackxarel Lebron.

We just drafted Lebron!!!

[phillipmike]

Jays have taken 2 more Canadians;

OF Jean-Christophe Masson - 26th round
C Owen Diodati - 29th round

[phillipmike]

Jays draft Roy Halladay's son, Braden Halladay

Drafted in the 32nd round, 32 was Roy's number which was retired by the Jays this season

[Schad]

Halladay's a definite courtesy draft, for what it's worth. Actually has some potential, if he gains velocity (he's in the mid 80s), but he's definitely going to college.

[phillipmike]

Halladay's a definite courtesy draft, for what it's worth. Actually has some potential, if he gains velocity (he's in the mid 80s), but he's definitely going to college.

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[Schad]

Almost definitely unsignable, but our 35th rounder Connor Phillips is from Magnolia West High School in Texas...the same town (and rival school; there are only two there, apparently) of the HS from whence sprang Groshans and Kloffenstein. Our Texas scout hasn't had to rack up the miles.

[Black Watch]

Why do not let MLB teams trade picks? I know they have started allowing teams to trade competitive balance picks, but why isn't allowed or is it just mlb teams are averse to trading picks.

It's coming in the next few years, definitely.

[Schad]

There was logic in disallowing trades for a long time. A lot of franchises (read: bad ones, including the Jays) really hated spending money in the draft. Or on player development overall, for that matter. Disallowing the trading of picks ensured that good teams couldn't buy the right to pay those players, which absolutely would have occurred.

That has changed now, however. Smaller-market teams spend just as freely in the draft as big-market ones; pretty well everyone spends up to the cap, and some of the biggest above-slot bonuses for players have been handed out by the likes of Pittsburgh (Stetson Allie, Josh Bell) and Kansas City (Bubba Starling). You could easily have a trade system now without it skewing toward the big teams, as really only the profoundly stupid (Mets, Orioles, any team that hires Dave Stewart) would be tempted to throw picks away.

Having said that: I wouldn't want draft-day trades to be allowed. It would be an absolute cluster of ****, because so much of the draft happens before the draft, as teams figure out their numbers and slotting. Set a cutoff of two business days prior or something.

[polo007]

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[SharoneWright]

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Dare I say, he overrates Brown. And I'm not against optimism. But that swing is......... vulnerable.

[-MetA4-]

Dare I say, he overrates Brown. And I'm not against optimism. But that swing is......... vulnerable.

The thing with players like Dasan Brown is that they can show rapid improvement in a short time frame, so what they've seen recently from him might be different than what we have access to. I'm not really a huge fan of this type of player profile either, but he does get consistently ranked right around where we picked him. Even Keith Law liked that pick lol, this is what he said in his chat:

Anik Patel: Thoughts on Blue Jays drafting Canadian talent?

Keith Law: Dasan Brown is legit. No issue taking him in that spot – he’s a real prospect and that wasn’t homerism (hoserism?).

[polo007]

Best hauls of the 2019 MLB Draft | MLB.com

5. Blue Jays

The next three teams on our list deserve extra credit because they didn't have the benefit of any extra picks. West Virginia right-hander Alek Manoah (first) is a physical beast who can blow hitters away with a mid-90s fastball and a power slider. Florida high school right-hander Kendall Williams (second) has a deep repertoire and a very projectable 6-foot-6 frame. Toronto used its next nine selections on position players, including athletic Canadian prep outfielder Dasan Brown (third) and three collegians with intriguing power potential for their positions: Creighton outfielder Will Robertson (fourth), Virginia shortstop Tanner Morris (fifth) and Vanderbilt catcher Philip Clarke (ninth).

[Wally West]

All in all, Jays has a solid draft.

Wasn’t a fan of Alek Manoah as I had him #45 on my board but maybe I’m wrong on him.

Our second round pick Kendall Williams was number 22 on my board and I love the arm and the projection on it. Even if he never gains velocity, he has a fastball that he throws 96mph and he could very well have Aaron Nola like ability in terms of performance despite their differences.

Dasan Brown i had ranked number 81 on my board right where he should be. The tools are tantalizing and if he hits, watch out. I was actually suppose to go see him with a friend of mike in Oakville this past month but it didn’t happen due to timing.

Will Robertson is an interesting college bat but I don’t think he hits to tap into his plus raw power.

All in all, I give the Jays draft a B.

[I_Like_Dirt]

only the profoundly stupid (Mets, Orioles, any team that hires Dave Stewart) would be tempted to throw picks away.

They would have to relegate the Orioles to AAA, honestly. Watching them ignore international signings is embarrassing enough. Let them trade all their picks for the next 5 years to the Yankees for Tulo's coffin and... even I have my limits.

[-MetA4-]

Wasn’t a fan of Alek Manoah as I had him #45 on my board but maybe I’m wrong on him.

Our second round pick Kendall Williams was number 22 on my board and I love the arm and the projection on it. Even if he never gains velocity, he has a fastball that he throws 96mph and he could very well have Aaron Nola like ability in terms of performance despite their differences.

Can you explain your "board"?

I just cant rationalize how you could have Manoah all the way down at #45. Its two plus or better pitches (and the third is average even if you want to assume it never improves). Its performance in a legitimate conference (I've seen people claim that his saber-type grades were the best among the "top ranked" college pitchers, can't confirm this though). Its performance in the Cape Cod league. Its remaining projection (due to his relatively new shift towards starting). Its MLB-caliber starting pitcher qualities (ie: he maintains his plus stuff deep into games, he checks all of the physical markers, etc).

How can Kendall Williams possibly be 20+ spots higher on your board? His fastball is worse, his best secondary pitch is worse than Manoah's slider, he is less developed (obviously), and he is considerably less proven (obviously). He doesn't possess any physical advantage over Manoah either. So even if you assume that his stuff is going to improve (which is hardly a guarantee) he still isn't even guaranteed to reach Manoah's PRESENT stuff.

Not to call you out, but that looks like nothing more than "gut-feel ranking" that isn't based on any real empirical analysis.

[Schad]

I've seen a few people in the industry who seem certain that Manoah's a reliever, which might explain it. I don't quite get why, though; yeah, he's a big dude, but he certainly displayed the durability and stamina to start. He pitches from the stretch, but it's worth noting that it's an emerging trend...there are starters ditching the windup and teams looking at removing it from their repertoires outright, as there seems to be no fundamental benefit:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-might-be-observing-the-decline-of-the-windup/

He certainly has reliever risk, but then again, most pitchers have reliever risk.

[phillipmike]

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[Wally West]

Wasn’t a fan of Alek Manoah as I had him #45 on my board but maybe I’m wrong on him.

Our second round pick Kendall Williams was number 22 on my board and I love the arm and the projection on it. Even if he never gains velocity, he has a fastball that he throws 96mph and he could very well have Aaron Nola like ability in terms of performance despite their differences.

Can you explain your "board"?

I just cant rationalize how you could have Manoah all the way down at #45. Its two plus or better pitches (and the third is average even if you want to assume it never improves). Its performance in a legitimate conference (I've seen people claim that his saber-type grades were the best among the "top ranked" college pitchers, can't confirm this though). Its performance in the Cape Cod league. Its remaining projection (due to his relatively new shift towards starting). Its MLB-caliber starting pitcher qualities (ie: he maintains his plus stuff deep into games, he checks all of the physical markers, etc).

How can Kendall Williams possibly be 20+ spots higher on your board? His fastball is worse, his best secondary pitch is worse than Manoah's slider, he is less developed (obviously), and he is considerably less proven (obviously). He doesn't possess any physical advantage over Manoah either. So even if you assume that his stuff is going to improve (which is hardly a guarantee) he still isn't even guaranteed to reach Manoah's PRESENT stuff.

Not to call you out, but that looks like nothing more than "gut-feel ranking" that isn't based on any real empirical analysis.

Please tag me next time. I wouldn’t of even known what you said was directed at me if it weren’t for my friend. My “board” consisted of 120 names which I planed to give to scouts had I gone to see Dasan Brown in Oakville back in May. I wouldn’t post it here though as I prefer it be private in case someone I gave it to found out I lurk on realgm lol. Just because a guy has two plus or better pitches and a track record of performance doesn’t mean anything. Look at Logan Warmoth whom you were ripping people on this very board and i’m paraphrasing here you saying that people in the industry loved the swing and that we didn’t know what we were talking about. He’s been a bust so far. One thing you’ll get to know about me is I don’t like killing people for them being themselves but Manoah quite frankly and God forgive me is a cheeseburger from being another Jonathan Broxton.

Kendall Williams can absolutely be 20 spots higher. He’s a high schooler, throws a plus fastball already and has an above average curveball and average changeup and command. With that frame, he’s easily gonna be creeping to the upper 90’s approaching triple digits. Even if he doesn’t gain any sort of velocity, you dream on him having that ability to be at least a number 2 starter.

Let me ask you this, would “gut-feel rankings” give someone conviction to have Nolan Gorman OVER Casey Mize who’s look like a stud pitcher and a future number 1? How about Forrest Whitley whom I was all over his draft year that at one point was the top pitching prospect in baseball. I hate to take credit for my “gut-feel rankings” but clearly I must be doing something more to have been spot on year after year.

I stayed up the whole night back to back years in 2018/2019 the day before the draft reading every single scouting report of Keith Law’s top 100 big board, MLB.com’s top 200 list and Fangraphs draft board reading at least the guy’s with their scouting tool grades on them. Let me show you guys a sneak peak of my top 10 and let me know if it’s “gut-feel rankings”.

1. C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (Roswell, Georgia) – 80 runner. Potential 5-tool shortstop with plus raw power and above average hit tool

2. Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto (Texas) JC – 6’8” righty with a fastball that has touched triple digits this year to go along with a plus/plus slider, above average curveball and below average control and command but with short arm action, he projects to have at least average command with repetition.

3. Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy – IMG Academy righty with a fastball that touches 99mph with an above average curveball and slider with an average changeup/command. Could probably add about 20-25 pounds to his 6’5” frame which could mean more velocity touching 100 mph+

4. Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State - 70 raw power, potential 5 tool outfielder with an average hit tool and plus speed

5. Spencer Jones, OF/LHP, La Costa Canyon (Calif.) HS - first baseman/left handed pitcher that I like listed as an outfielder with his ability to run (above average) and 70 raw power. A team believing in the bat and his pitching (above-average fastball touching 94mph and an above average curveball albeit below average changeup and command) could develop him two ways in pro-ball until one or both become apparent as to what he is.

6. Michael Toglia, 1B/OF, UCLA - young for his class first baseman (doesn’t turn 21 until August 16th) with projectable frame and 60/70 raw power depending on who you ask. All depends on how much he’s able to add to his 6’4” 205lbs frame but it could be 70+ raw power at his peak with 70 level defense at first base

7. Adley Rutschman, C, Oregan State – switch-hitting catcher who’s hit, power, arm and field tools could potentially grade out as 60’s or better with his raw power grading out as a 70

8. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, California – right/right throw/swing first baseman with potential 70+ on the hit and power tools. Could be average on defense

9. Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS (Oviedo, Florida) – sweet swinging outfielder with plus hit tool and 70 raw power. Limited to left field due to lack of speed and instincts

10. Garrett Frechette, OF, Orange
Outfielder with a Freddie Freeman like look to him in terms of ability. Could project to be at least a 70 raw power guy in the future with 30+ HR’s in his peak.

You don’t stay up the whole night and get only 3 hours of sleep before the draft just to have a “gut-feel ranking.” I really would be interested in seeing where you would’ve ranked Alek Manoah and how you top 10 would’ve played out.

[Schad]

I'm going to offer one critique: it seems to measure players on peak, when consistency is just as important. Rutledge flashes a terrific slider and a solid curveball; they aren't everyday offerings yet, however, which is part of the reason he was a divisive prospect as from what I've read he looked utterly untouchable one night and couldn't spin his breaking stuff the next, and his command wavered. Thus, his projection (and selection) in the middle of the round...he could be a top-tier starter, but he still has a lot of developing to do in order to reach that point.

Conversely, Manoah has big stuff as well, but locates more consistently and has a demonstrated ability to use that stuff against higher-level competition. Which isn't to say he'll necessarily be better than Rutledge (I wouldn't have minded if we went that direction) but there is a balance between ceiling and likelihood to reach that ceiling; that doesn't mean selecting low-ceiling mediocrities, but the rawer the player, the more inherent risk that they will come up short.

Similarly, Rutschman is far too low. Whereas some of the guys you have above him are high risk/very high reward, Rutschman is low risk/high reward. He is very likely to be an above-average major league catcher; he also stands a good chance of being one of the best catchers in the majors. That doesn't mean he's a "safe" pick because his odds of putting up 6 WAR a year aren't spectacularly high; it makes him a good pick.

Which isn't to say that you shouldn't take risky players. I like risk, and I've been openly against some of our attempts at safer options. But you have to be aware of that risk; a guy with a 10% chance of being a 4 WAR player isn't a better value proposition than a theoretical prospect with a 70% chance of being a 3 WAR player.

[Wally West]

I'm going to offer one critique: it seems to measure players on peak, when consistency is just as important. Rutledge flashes a terrific slider and a solid curveball; they aren't everyday offerings yet, however, which is part of the reason he was a divisive prospect as from what I've read he looked utterly untouchable one night and couldn't spin his breaking stuff the next, and his command wavered. Thus, his projection (and selection) in the middle of the round...he could be a top-tier starter, but he still has a lot of developing to do in order to reach that point.

Conversely, Manoah has big stuff as well, but locates more consistently and has a demonstrated ability to use that stuff against higher-level competition. Which isn't to say he'll necessarily be better than Rutledge (I wouldn't have minded if we went that direction) but there is a balance between ceiling and likelihood to reach that ceiling; that doesn't mean selecting low-ceiling mediocrities, but the rawer the player, the more inherent risk that they will come up short.

Similarly, Rutschman is far too low. Whereas some of the guys you have above him are high risk/very high reward, Rutschman is low risk/high reward. He is very likely to be an above-average major league catcher; he also stands a good chance of being one of the best catchers in the majors. That doesn't mean he's a "safe" pick because his odds of putting up 6 WAR a year aren't spectacularly high; it makes him a good pick.

Which isn't to say that you shouldn't take risky players. I like risk, and I've been openly against some of our attempts at safer options. But you have to be aware of that risk; a guy with a 10% chance of being a 4 WAR player isn't a better value proposition than a theoretical prospect with a 70% chance of being a 3 WAR player.

I wrote my scouting reports wrong. The rankings were right, though. All part of the learning curve for me with being the first time I’ve actually written a scouting report to post online. My top 10 could perform if developed right from day 1 and not just be “peak” guys. I also think you absolutely shoot for the stars when it comes to picks and there’s so many of them that the payoff could be be huge if you hit on one or two every 10 rounds. That’s just something I’ll note for when I finally put out my 120 and possibly share the link on this site not to include “at his peak”.