Offseason Thread: The Waiting is the Hardest Part

[JCS]

The case for D'Angelo Russell :

How often do you get the possibility to acquire an up-and-coming, barely entering his prime, 23 years old, without injury or character issues, cost-controlled All-Star? Is there even a precedent in the last 10 years? Usually you only get a shot at these guys at the end of their 2nd contract, and they became older and more expensive.

Brooklyn is not in a hurry to ditch him. At all. In fact it seems there's a strong debate in their front office about going for Kyrie if he's not coming with a 2nd superstar, or staying the course with DAR instead (listen to the last Lowe Post). The fact that this is even a decision shows how strongly they value him.

And the Lakers didn't "dump" him. They needed max cap space to prepare for Lebron and/or Paul George, and were desperate to get rid of the Mozgov contract and had to attach a serious asset with it. Obviously the Nick Young fiasco didn't help, but honestly it sounds more like being young and stupid than being a bad teammate.

Russell is for sure still a flawed player, and not what we expected just a few weeks ago. But at this point, he's probably the only clear positive move we can make to improve the team now and in the future. Remember he's cheaper than all the crappy veterans out there, and will be an asset we can trade at some point if needed.

[thebuzzardman]

This is why I brought up Porzingis because when it was talked about resigning him to a 150 mil max deal, nobody was saying that the rebuild was abandoned. Now you replace him with another 23 year old who plays a different position but brings just as much if not more impact and all of a sudden we are going away from the initial plan? Just doesn't make sense but whatever

Here's the difference. The Knicks drafted Porzingis. IF, at the end of his contract, they thought he was worth it, they would have made a move to give him that contract.

Also, if some fans think trading KP wasnt keeping with the "original plan" , or, conversely, signing DLo isn't part of an original plan, in a way, they'd be incorrect both times.

The Knicks FO has stated they want to build via the draft, and in FA, for players they feel are worth the big contract.
KP was drafted. They decided not to continue to rebuild WITH KP, but the plan of drafting players to build the team remained as an organizational goal, one could say.
(Note - I'm not trying to engage in mental gymnastics to fit stuff together. I know the Knicks drafted KP when they had Melo etc, and post Melo, I guess they were trying to "build" around him, but that really amounted to like 2 seasons, one of which he was hurt. Also, there is the question of if they considered KP the centerpiece or "a piece""

Also, if the Knicks FO felt DLo was worth a max contract, it wouldn't necessarily be outside their plan either, as they moved to use their space to put in a guy around the team with that salary slot. IF DLo is worth the spot, it's a nice fit as he's young and puts him on a timeline with the rest of the players.

Personally, I think that DLo has barely earned the max money slot in one season, no less his career. It's not just him. The NBA CBA is structured, and the reality of talent is such, that there's always a bunch of guys who maxed out who really shouldn't be - or not by certain teams. DLo feels like one of those guys. Then the counter is is that he's "rising" and "will be worth it". Could be true. Hell of a risk. Expensive risk, both in actual dollars, but also in the cost of roster construction and flexibility after.

[J9Starks3]

The case for D'Angelo Russell :

How often do you get the possibility to acquire an up-and-coming, barely entering his prime, 23 years old, without injury or character issues, cost-controlled All-Star? Is there even a precedent in the last 10 years? Usually you only get a shot at these guys at the end of their 2nd contract, and they became older and more expensive.

Brooklyn is not in a hurry to ditch him. At all. In fact it seems there's a strong debate in their front office about going for Kyrie if he's not coming with a 2nd superstar, or staying the course with DAR instead (listen to the last Lowe Post). The fact that this is even a decision shows how strongly they value him.

And the Lakers didn't "dump" him. They needed max cap space to prepare for Lebron and/or Paul George, and were desperate to get rid of the Mozgov contract and had to attach a serious asset with it. Obviously the Nick Young fiasco didn't help, but honestly it sounds more like being young and stupid than being a bad teammate.

Russell is for sure still a flawed player, and not what we expected just a few weeks ago. But at this point, he's probably the only clear positive move we can make to improve the team now and in the future. Remember he's cheaper than all the crappy veterans out there, and will be an asset we can trade at some point if needed.

I don’t know if the “without character issues” is 100% valid... to flip that around on you, how often do you get a young “up-and-coming, barely entering his prime, 23 years old, without injury or character issues, cost-controlled All-Star” going on his 3rd team in 4 years? Makes you wonder why none of the really good ones have ever really moved around like that. And why would 2 previous teams who could control his fate for about 7 years let him go. If he’s available, there’s a reason.

[br7knicks]

Kawhi ain’t coming. Book it. Only dude I see the Fo considering now is Randle

Dsj
RJ
Iggy. (You heard it here he will be starting by January)
Randle
Deandre. (Will return on 1 + 1 team option)

45 wins

these predictions, or what you want? i may have And1'd too quickly.


i do think knox will lose his starting spot if he shows up like he did last season.

i doubt FO will go for randle, as they've stated they will continue the course they're headed and for us to be patient with the young guys - unless they give him a 1+1.

i don't think deandre will be back (although i think for the MLE, he'd be great). think the FO is comfortable with mitch starting - although, i'm not sure he's 100% ready for 36mpg - although he played well at 30+ mpg.

[thebuzzardman]

The case for D'Angelo Russell :

How often do you get the possibility to acquire an up-and-coming, barely entering his prime, 23 years old, without injury or character issues, cost-controlled All-Star? Is there even a precedent in the last 10 years? Usually you only get a shot at these guys at the end of their 2nd contract, and they became older and more expensive.

Brooklyn is not in a hurry to ditch him. At all. In fact it seems there's a strong debate in their front office about going for Kyrie if he's not coming with a 2nd superstar, or staying the course with DAR instead (listen to the last Lowe Post). The fact that this is even a decision shows how strongly they value him.

And the Lakers didn't "dump" him. They needed max cap space to prepare for Lebron and/or Paul George, and were desperate to get rid of the Mozgov contract and had to attach a serious asset with it. Obviously the Nick Young fiasco didn't help, but honestly it sounds more like being young and stupid than being a bad teammate.

Russell is for sure still a flawed player, and not what we expected just a few weeks ago. But at this point, he's probably the only clear positive move we can make to improve the team now and in the future. Remember he's cheaper than all the crappy veterans out there, and will be an asset we can trade at some point if needed.

All vaild

Case against

Don't max out flawed players, ever, unless already contending deep into the playoffs

DLo has had a few things happen that might be considered character issues - at least signs of immaturity, lack of common sense

Some guys get maxed out and aren't completely worth the contract, not in the future, present or ever. DLo might be that guy.

The assumption is he's young and on the rise. It implies he's not max value now but will be. That's a risk for 4 years, 27 million per, loss of a max salary slot and loss of that roster flexibility for FOUR years, if wrong. That's a pretty big risk
It might be a worthwhile risk too - not denying that. But it's a BIG risk.

Is DLo, even if "ascendant", that much better than DSJr? Lets assume he's better. 23 million per year better? (That's one season). Assume DSJr needs to get resigned. Is he a "max cat?". Nope. Ok. 2nd season. Club option for 5 million. Still 22 million cheaper.
Or they let him go and try to find a PG in the draft. Or they sign him for 14 million in 2 years and he's 13 million cheaper.

DLo is good. Just not seeing he's a huge difference maker over DSJr. And I'm not a DSJr fan, specifically.

[thebuzzardman]

This is why I brought up Porzingis because when it was talked about resigning him to a 150 mil max deal, nobody was saying that the rebuild was abandoned. Now you replace him with another 23 year old who plays a different position but brings just as much if not more impact and all of a sudden we are going away from the initial plan? Just doesn't make sense but whatever

I don’t get that. I was one of the first people to mention signing DLo when KD went down and got bombed for it. At worst, he’s a young All Star pg who we could trade if it didn’t work out. There’s plenty of teams willing to max him out, who would possibly still be interested if it turned out that way (Suns, Pacers, Magic, etc).

Which entails taking back 27 million in contracts to offload him. Let's face it - if he "didn't work out" for the Knicks, while there are teams that would want him, I don't think they'd exactly fork over a ton of assets. My point being, we don't know, Knicks could get back a pick etc, but I'd assume it might be hard to deal him away and get pure salary relief. Lets compromise and assume he's traded, they get a low first back, a pair of decent players they might keep, but nothing special, occupying 15 million in cap space for 2 years, and a guy(s) they can waive valued at 12 million.

Even escaping the "not working out" DLo is a middle of the road way isn't that great for team moving forward.

[thebuzzardman]

The Buzzardman's case for signing DLo:


The incredible levels of angst it would cause for half the board, at least

The crushed dreams of FA regarding two superstar max cats

The annoying DLo faction, who have already identified themselves, who would carp over everything he does, even if mediocre

That he would instantly be the most polarizing player on the Knicks, leading to massive thread derails, internet fights, unrealistic positions staked out pro and con and surely several banishings.

How much I would be entertained by points 1,2,3 and 4.

[thebuzzardman]

I was just addressing your hypothetical scenario with DSJ. Let's say it takes DSJ 2 more years but by the end of 2021 he's really good and wants the max. Let's be fair about the timeframe, this is how long it took DLo to get it together. So because DSJ was still developing in 2020 you've probably got a good draft pick that summer to add to the core. Then you can sign 2 max cats (either AD in summer 2020 (let's be real he's staying in LA) and 1 more 2021 or 2 in 2021) and you can still go over the cap to re-sign your home grown talent in DSJ to basically have a big 3. In the DLo scenario as you say, you can sign him for 4 years and still have room to sign 1 more max in 2020 or 2021, but the 2020 draft pick is probably worse since DLo is already established, and then you only have 1 max spot open. The first scenario where DSJ becomes a good player and asks for the max is much better.

With that said, I think there's a slim chance DSJ ever becomes good enough to ask for the max

actually no. ds jr's cap hold will stop you from doing that, the same way kp was gonna stop us from signing 2 maxes even if we got rid of thj/lee without him. the same way the nets can't keep d-lo and sign kd/kyrie.

I mean, like everything, it depends

Assuming we bottom out 2 years in a row and pick 3rd (which is average for worst team in the league), then we pick 14 and 15 in 2021 (one from us, one from Dallas), if we don't extend Trier or Dot we'd have around 61 million. If we get two 5th picks and two mid firsts, it becomes 63 million. If we get 3rd next year and 10th the year after, 65 million. DSJ's cap hold will be 17 million, so it is sizeable, but there's still a very good chance we get to two max slots in 21, or at least we have more than enough for one max and still 20-25 mil left over

Speaking of depends, isn't Phil still collecting checks into those years as well?

[thebuzzardman]

Comparing DLo to Tim Hardaway Jr.?

Man I'm done

They aren't close in talent in all.

The only comparison that works is both would represent (or did) intially overpaying a guy and then assuming he'd "grow" into the value of his contract, and I guess, exceed it, though it's hard in DLo's case to exceed the value of being maxed out since he is, unless he becomes as good as players who are eligible for the supermax, which, honestly, does anyone feel that is going to happen?

And I've said a few times on here, DLo COULD reach being worth an NBA max, but would he truly be "worth it", or would he be one of those guys who should be maxed out, but, for half the teams in the league, it's sort of a bad idea.

Only, the Knicks have usually been one of those teams that maxes a guy out when it's a bad idea.

[thebuzzardman]

Comparing DLo to Tim Hardaway Jr.?

Man I'm done

I don’t even want D-Lo. But even that take is utterly ridiculous. But you have to remember something. Our board for as long as I can remember has been overhyping our prospects while actively taking a dump on other teams young impact players. Again, this doesn’t mean everyone does that. But for a large majority this has been a staple of who we are.

The kid had one 20 ppg season, with high usage due to injuries, and we want to state he's an "impact player".

He COULD become one. I think that's a little premature to state that.

Most of my arguments against DLo are a risk assessment thing. IF the FO really had scouting on him that he truly turned the corner etc, why not? I'd hope none of these people are the ones who agreed with Steve Mills that THJr would outperform his contract eventually.

Also, this comes across like a bit of a straw dog argument here, as, yes, there's the put down of other players, push up of Knicks players, but in this specific instance, the discussion is around MAXING OUT that "young player on another team"

Also, some of this board also has a tradition of sh*tting on it's young players in excess of their talent level. Showing high levels of impatience or rushes to judgement.

Interesting it bothers you that people on here rush to negatively judge players on other teams but have a high comfort level towards it on here.

[captvict]

Getting D'Angelo would go against what Mills and Perry have been saying this offseason. Based off what they're saying- and they've been quite consistent with their position- that they won't be giving out max contracts to guys not on that top tier level of the FA class. I don't think anyone would categorize D'Angelo with the "real" max level players.

For me it goes back to a simple notion: Is Russell 4 times the player that DSJ is? He'd cost quadruple what Dennis makes, so when you look at it in that context I think it's an easy pass.

And how about the culture here, I thought that was important? Russell was a bad teammate in LA and was basically dumped to BK because of that Nick Young fiasco. Wasn't he recently busted for weed at the airport as well?

Hard pass on that guy.

I heard that Knicks would not sign second level Big FIsh. I think they refer to players like Tobias, Mid, Kemba and Butler. Because they are win now players who arent good enough to lead a inexperienced team to titles and will be decline in a few years making their contracts awful. However we dont know exactly would be the Knicks strategy if they strike out. All the options have complications.

1) Postpone a Max FA signing to 2020: Downside> very few players available. Probably no one deserves a Max.

2) Postpone a MAx FA singing to 2021: Downside: Cap Holds of Frank, Dennis and 3 FRP Cap Holds and need to lock many of out players in longer term deals (only Knox, RJ and Mitch have contract past this season) might use all our cap space.

3) Bring good veteran with high QI guys to help our young core in 1 or 2 years deals. Downside> They rather play for a contender than be babysitters.

4) Renting cap space for picks. Downside> we have to wait for a rival needs cap relieve. Good deals might not come.

5) Redraft reclamation projects in short term deals: Downside> They play to show his skills to the market. Dont want to win and build chemistry. They are little experienced and not good enough to be good role players to our kids. If they archive success, we will have to fight others teams in almost equal conditions. If they fail, we loose time and harm the evolution of our players. Too much gamble.

6) Contract young players borderline stars like Dennis, Brogdon and Randle. Downside: they are expensive and we have to value them for what they will be 3 years from now and their performance could regress making their contracts look bad.

Excellent breakdown. The options do dwindle after this year. I could now see how it would almost make sense to sign Durant albeit injured

[ADeP7]

Just saw Brogdon expected to get a 4/80 offer sheet from bulls. What’s the reactions if knicks put an offer to Brogdon of 4/90 or is that a big no no

Dsj / Brogdon / Barrett / Knox / Mitch

[Jeff Van Gully]

Just saw Brogdon expected to get a 4/80 offer sheet from bulls. What’s the reactions if knicks put an offer to Brogdon of 4/90 or is that a big no no

Dsj / Brogdon / Barrett / Knox / Mitch

not a good play if he's not coming with a KD/kawhi level partner. just not the right time to sign a complementary player to a big contract.

[thebuzzardman]

Next big free agent class for us is probably 2023 with Embiid and Jokic, or 2024 with KAT. 2021 is unrealistic with Giannis, Paul George, and Damian Lillard (latter 2 will be 30 by then).

Thanks for spelling that out, I always forget who is potentially due, when.


Let's keep in mind that cap space isn't only for FA. The amount of space a team is under the cap facilitates other moves, whether being able to conduct lobsided trades (still under the cap post trade) or being able to absorb some star player into a max slot. Or even being close to a max slot, but having a player or two easily shed.

[thebuzzardman]

Just saw Brogdon expected to get a 4/80 offer sheet from bulls. What’s the reactions if knicks put an offer to Brogdon of 4/90 or is that a big no no

Dsj / Brogdon / Barrett / Knox / Mitch

That's a nope.
And Brogdon is nice. Not that nice. Or not that nice, now. Also a bad move for the Bulls, in their current situation.

Also, Knox would get killed at PF right now. Maybe after 2 more seasons. Not that he can't spend a few minutes there, but not full time.

[thebuzzardman]

Question - how do the Knicks avoid the cap holds of Frank and DSJr before they hit, when will they hit specifically, and what happens to that hold when another team acquires them.

Is the nature of the hold the other team winds up with dependent on the timing of when they get either player?
Ex of last question would be, I guess, if DSJr or Frank is traded now, the acquiring team winds up with that 14 million cap hold - or they don't if traded for now, and vice versa if traded during or after next season.

[thebuzzardman]

Here's a DLo based question, since this has become all DLo all the time.

Hezi stated that "RJ" will be the "franchise player" and it's "his team". Let's assume that's true.

RJ's stated "upside" is improving his shot/pass selection - decision making - and being a guy who has the ball in his hands to score and a secondary playmaker.

Not that I want to spend 23 more million dollars a year for it, but it DLo significantly better off the ball than DSJr? My feel is he's better, just for the faction of guys on here who seem to follow all his games, is he a significantly stronger fit? I'd assume getting into the paint, breaking down the defense - DLo and DSJr are close enough, with edge DLo as a passer, but he's no Jason Kidd,as neither is DSJr.

[TheGreenArrow]

Dlo wasnt even the best player on his team.

This love affair with this guy is ridiculous.

I'd rather bring back mudiay instead of giving dlo a max.

[F N 11]

Brogdan and DLo y’all got signing fever huh.

[Worst_to_First]

Watch on YouTube

So D’Angelo Russell placed Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, LeBron James, Anthony Davis and himself in his Dream Team starting five.

He should be a good fit there back in LA.