Lowe - Timberwolves Still Want D-Russell

[shrink]

Why the sudden rush to move now. I think almost everyone here loves our wings in Okogie, RoCo and initial views of Culver, so why hurry in an attempt to get a PG? We have a (albeit not ideal) starting PG in Teague, we have the possibility to match one of the best backup PG's in Tyus, so I would say, just wait... Who knows what happens at the trade dead line; maybe Sexton becomes available, Teagues value as expiring has increased, etc. I don't feel like trading away promising players for a slightly above average player at a max contract.

Well said, Tukkerwolf.

Simply waiting until the trade deadline increases the trade value of Teague (and Dieng, and Wiggins), which means we don’t have to give up all these assets. The Wolves need a chance for upside, so we shouldn’t throw away Okogie, Culver, and future 1sts because we don’t have a little patience.

By that time, the opportunity to get D'Angelo Russell will be gone. This isn't "throw[ing] away" assets, this is an investment in a 23 year-old All-Star who fits our timeline perfectly and is an ideal fit for our offense.

In all of NBA history, I can’t remember a time when there is more opportunity to add a good starting PG.

The PG role is getting crowded right now, with almost all teams having either stars, or teams have invested a lottery pick in the position. Next year’s draft has a bumper crop of PG’s, many who are projected to be better than Garland and Coby White. We just saw Conley get traded this week, and they immediately have Ja Morant. CLE has an All Rookie PG in Sexton, and still took Garland, because they felt he had the most talent. There is plenty of opportunity.

Also, if for some reason, you became emotionally attached to Russell after his first okay season, you can’t even say that the opportunity to get him will be gone. I would say that it is more than likely that he does not perform up to his max deal next year. Russell is eligible to be traded by December 15th, and buyer’s remorse is certainly not out of the question.

I am not opposed to making an investment, but gambling it on a guy with a max deal for 4-5 years, hoping he grows into earning it, is an oddly familiar gamble (Wiggins). I’d rather invest in either a player that has proven something, or invest in a lottery pick that doesn’t carry all that financial downside.

[minimus]

Well said, Tukkerwolf.

Simply waiting until the trade deadline increases the trade value of Teague (and Dieng, and Wiggins), which means we don’t have to give up all these assets. The Wolves need a chance for upside, so we shouldn’t throw away Okogie, Culver, and future 1sts because we don’t have a little patience.

By that time, the opportunity to get D'Angelo Russell will be gone. This isn't "throw[ing] away" assets, this is an investment in a 23 year-old All-Star who fits our timeline perfectly and is an ideal fit for our offense.

In all of NBA history, I can’t remember a time when there is more opportunity to add a good starting PG.

The PG role is getting crowded right now, with almost all teams having either stars, or teams have invested a lottery pick in the position. Next year’s draft has a bumper crop of PG’s, many who are projected to be better than Garland and Coby White. We just saw Conley get traded this week, and they immediately have Ja Morant. CLE has an All Rookie PG in Sexton, and still took Garland, because they felt he had the most talent. There is plenty of opportunity.

Also, if for some reason, you became emotionally attached to Russell after his first okay season, you can’t even say that the opportunity to get him will be gone. I would say that it is more than likely that he does not perform up to his max deal next year. Russell is eligible to be traded by December 15th, and buyer’s remorse is certainly not out of the question.

I am not opposed to making an investment, but gambling it on a guy with a max deal for 4-5 years, hoping he grows into earning it, is an oddly familiar gamble (Wiggins). I’d rather invest in either a player that has proven something, or invest in a lottery pick that doesn’t carry all that financial downside.

That is correct, there are many good PGs in NBA. But how many of them are available? And how many of them fit here? How many of them want to play here?
Lets list some of option this offseason:

1) Conley. Available, perfect fit in terms PnR offense, experience and defense. Injury prone. Wants to play in a proven playoff team, hence not in MIN.
2) Russell. Available, perfect fit in terms size, creativity, ballhandling, 3pt shooting, passing. Might want to play here, because of Kat. Fits age window as well.
3) Scary Terry. Available, streaky scoring first PG. Wants 12+ mil/yr contract. Not much creator or passer.
4) Brodgon. Never considered MIN. Might be offered 20+ mil/yr contract from MIL. Good fit in terms of defense, 3pt shooting. Not much creator or passer.
5) Irving. Never considered MIN.
6) Walker. Never considered MIN.
7) Rubio. Still cant shoot. Perfect fit in terms ballhandling, passing. Might want to play here. Not much creator
8) Corey Joseph. Average backup PG.
9) Collison. Average backup PG.
10) Beverly. Supreme defender, limited player in offense.
11) Satoransky. Smart, oversized PG, good fit here because of ballhandling, 3pt shooting, passing. Not much creator, needs another star next to him to share PG duties
12) Tyus. Smart, undersize PG, good fit here because of ballhandling, decision making, passing. Not much creator, needs another star next to him to share PG duties
13) Isaiah Thomas. Has lost quickness, could not play in playoffs because of inablity to score and defend.
14) Rose. Injury prone, needs to play major minutes to stay in shape.

Our biggest need is banhandler, who can create high quality shot for himself and others. So, from whole list I would try to get Conley, Russell. Not much of choice. As for backup PG slot: Satoransky and Tyus. But given uncertain situation with Teague, I would not rush with backup PG position.

Personally, I am not obsessed with Russell itself, but I makes a lot of sense to try to get him now because of number of reasons: fit, age, availability, KAT connection etc. If Kyrie and KD decide to go Brooklyn we might see opportunity. So why dont use it?

[shrink]

We aren’t contending for a title next season, with or without Russell. We are not required to choose our star starting PG from the choices in free agency this summer. In fact, waiting puts us in a better position, with more available PG’s (including next year’s draft and new trade candidates), and the negative contracts of Teague, Dieng and Wiggins are shorter, and would require less assets to move.

The Wolves just need to be patient. On a max deal that we hope he grows into, Russell has little upside, and a whole lot of downside.

[minimus]

We aren’t contending for a title next season, with or without Russell. We are not required to choose our star starting PG from the choices in free agency this summer. In fact, waiting puts us in a better position, with more available PG’s (including next year’s draft and new trade candidates), and the negative contracts of Teague, Dieng and Wiggins are shorter, and would require less assets to move.

The Wolves just need to be patient.

If I look at PG FAs in 2020 I still dont see a better fit than Russell. Lowry, Dragic, George Hill, Reggie Jackson. I dont see another PG who stucked in bad team like Conley either (Wall does not count). Maybe Jrue Holiday. We could move Teague, Dieng, Wiggins for PF/SF/SG, but it wont improve our PG situation.

[shrink]

Incidentally, I wanted to remind people that if they are making trades to acquire the cap space to make Russell a max offer, then simply moving Teague and Dieng isn’t enough.

MIN is already over the cap, so they need to add the salary reduction to get down to the cap, plus Russell’s $27.25 max salary - so they must clear about $35 mil. Dieng and Teague together make about $35, but removing them creates two $900,000 roster holds, so we’re back down to $33. MIN has few players they could add that could clear that gap except for Culver.

Also, remember that clearing the cap space does not get you Russell. Even if we had the cap to make him an offer, he could choose not to sign it, and even if he did, we have no way of knowing if BRK will be able to get two star free agents, or whether they might simply match our offer. That would leave us simply with cap space, and we are not a good free agent destination, that can automatically turn cap space into a star,

[shrink]

We aren’t contending for a title next season, with or without Russell. We are not required to choose our star starting PG from the choices in free agency this summer. In fact, waiting puts us in a better position, with more available PG’s (including next year’s draft and new trade candidates), and the negative contracts of Teague, Dieng and Wiggins are shorter, and would require less assets to move.

The Wolves just need to be patient.

If I look at PG FAs in 2020 I still dont see a better fit than Russell. Lowry, Dragic, George Hill, Reggie Jackson. I dont see another PG who stucked in bad team like Conley either (Wall does not count). Maybe Jrue Holiday. We could move Teague, Dieng, Wiggins for PF/SF/SG, but it wont improve our PG situation.

I agree that free agency is an unlikely route to acquire a star PG for the team, but trade is not. Teams fortunes go up or down, and an injury can turn a contender into a team who’s selling resources. Dealing a star PG would be tough with few buyers, so we should be able to get a good price. Heck, we could even trade for Russell himself late this year, if the team has buyer’s remorse for that max deal. In addition, the next draft has some elite PG prospects as well. We only need one - the others take up spots on other teams, crowding the market even more, and creating more opportunities for cheaper prices,

[minimus]

Incidentally, I wanted to remind people that if they are making trades to acquire the cap space to make Russell a max offer, then simply moving Teague and Dieng isn’t enough.

MIN is already over the cap, so they need to add the salary reduction to get down to the cap, plus Russell’s $27.25 max salary - so they must clear about $35 mil. Dieng and Teague together make about $35, but removing them creates two $900,000 roster holds, so we’re back down to $33. MIN has few players they could add that could clear that gap except for Culver.

Also, remember that clearing the cap space does not get you Russell. Even if we had the cap to make him an offer, he could choose not to sign it, and even if he did, we have no way of knowing if BRK will be able to get two star free agents, or whether they might simply match our offer. That would leave us simply with cap space, and we are not a good free agent destination, that can automatically turn cap space into a star,

Which confirms one more time that FO needs to be creative and execute/understand CBA rules. For instance, LAL are awful even with AD trade. They agreed on terms, then realized that they might have another max contract slot, now they are trying to do this.

To put it simple, they were not prepared well. After half a year, there were not prepared well.

I hope our FO can do it better.

[jpatrick]

These cap spacing deals wouldn't need to happen until we get a commitment from Russell. That's how these deals are normally done (unless you're the Kings I guess). Eliminating that Russell risk.

Plus, it's looking more-and-more like the Nets are going KD/Kyrie, which means they would need to withdraw the Russell QO. Now, if that doesn't happen until several days until free agency, that could be a problem. But I get the feeling, this is something that will be agreed upon by the end of the free agencies first day, thus removing the Nets risk.

Finally, if we are within 2m of a max offer, lots of ways to get that when so close. If we can't dump one of our small contracts, do we have a small contract to stretch?

All that said, making this is a three-way sign-and-trade would be so much easier, and I feel like that is the path our FO would take.

[shrink]

These cap spacing deals wouldn't need to happen until we get a commitment from Russell. That's how these deals are normally done (unless you're the Kings I guess). Eliminating that Russell risk.

Plus, it's looking more-and-more like the Nets are going KD/Kyrie, which means they would need to withdraw the Russell QO. Now, if that doesn't happen until several days until free agency, that could be a problem. But I get the feeling, this is something that will be agreed upon by the end of the free agencies first day, thus removing the Nets risk.

Finally, if we are within 2m of a max offer, lots of ways to get that when so close. If we can't dump one of our small contracts, do we have a small contract to stretch?

All that said, making this is a three-way sign-and-trade would be so much easier, and I feel like that is the path our FO would take. If

I agree that finding the $2 mil looks easy, but check our roster. We simply don’t have the minor contracts, except for Culver.

And if all these commitments could happen simultaneously and be iron-clad, we could eliminate risk. That’s not realistic.

1. It’s unlikely we could get a team to “trade” us cap space on the first day of free agency, because teams with cap space want to see where the top 10-15 free agents go, so they don’t miss an opportunity to sign a good free agent themselves.

2. Even if Russell wanted to come here, he can’t afford to wait if some other team offers him a max deal. He has played under rookie scale his whole life, and he can’t risk changing free agency perhaps causing the team to pull the offer.

3. I agree it does look like the Nets may get their two elite free agents, but it’s hard to be sure. GSW wants to offer KD the higher super-max, and be open to trading him later. No one can predict what mercurial flat-earther Kyrie Irving will do. Even if they decide will probably come, meetings with other teams can bog down the process, especially if they want to see other stars sign before they commit.

[Killboard]

All that said, making this is a three-way sign-and-trade would be so much easier, and I feel like that is the path our FO would take.

In a S&T scenario the nets could trade him even after renounce him rights (#92 of CBAfaq), so there is another little help for it to happen if the Nets max free agents are in a hurry to sign, which I think is important added flexibility.

We could even add Cam Reynolds since he is unguaranteed and would let us getting closer to the max money matching (20.5 would be going out)

[thinktank]

Incidentally, I wanted to remind people that if they are making trades to acquire the cap space to make Russell a max offer, then simply moving Teague and Dieng isn’t enough.

MIN is already over the cap, so they need to add the salary reduction to get down to the cap, plus Russell’s $27.25 max salary - so they must clear about $35 mil. Dieng and Teague together make about $35, but removing them creates two $900,000 roster holds, so we’re back down to $33. MIN has few players they could add that could clear that gap except for Culver.

Also, remember that clearing the cap space does not get you Russell. Even if we had the cap to make him an offer, he could choose not to sign it, and even if he did, we have no way of knowing if BRK will be able to get two star free agents, or whether they might simply match our offer. That would leave us simply with cap space, and we are not a good free agent destination, that can automatically turn cap space into a star,

Which confirms one more time that FO needs to be creative and execute/understand CBA rules. For instance, LAL are awful even with AD trade. They agreed on terms, then realized that they might have another max contract slot, now they are trying to do this.

To put it simple, they were not prepared well. After half a year, there were not prepared well.

I hope our FO can do it better.

If we execute a S&T I believe we can be under cap before the trade and over cap after. I could be wrong but that’s my understanding. I agree that CBA intricacies are key.

[shrink]

Incidentally, I wanted to remind people that if they are making trades to acquire the cap space to make Russell a max offer, then simply moving Teague and Dieng isn’t enough.

MIN is already over the cap, so they need to add the salary reduction to get down to the cap, plus Russell’s $27.25 max salary - so they must clear about $35 mil. Dieng and Teague together make about $35, but removing them creates two $900,000 roster holds, so we’re back down to $33. MIN has few players they could add that could clear that gap except for Culver.

Also, remember that clearing the cap space does not get you Russell. Even if we had the cap to make him an offer, he could choose not to sign it, and even if he did, we have no way of knowing if BRK will be able to get two star free agents, or whether they might simply match our offer. That would leave us simply with cap space, and we are not a good free agent destination, that can automatically turn cap space into a star,

Which confirms one more time that FO needs to be creative and execute/understand CBA rules. For instance, LAL are awful even with AD trade. They agreed on terms, then realized that they might have another max contract slot, now they are trying to do this.

To put it simple, they were not prepared well. After half a year, there were not prepared well.

I hope our FO can do it better.

If we execute a S&T I believe we can be under cap before the trade and over cap after. I could be wrong but that’s my understanding. I agree that CBA intricacies are key.

You are right, as long as you are within normal over-the-cap salary matching.

What you might be thinking of where it is untrue is when you go under the cap to acquire cap space so that you don’t have to match.

[Domejandro]

Read on Twitter

Good article by Zach Lowe that showcases some of D'Angelo Russell's weaknesses that he has to work on long-term (primarily strength and finishing).

[Slim Tubby]

Read on Twitter

Good article by Zach Lowe that showcases some of D'Angelo Russell's weaknesses that he has to work on long-term (primarily strength and finishing).

Thanks for posting this, Dome!

[shrink]

Read on Twitter

Good article by Zach Lowe that showcases some of D'Angelo Russell's weaknesses that he has to work on long-term (primarily strength and finishing).

Great article. Thanks Dom. I was struck by how much of an afterthought MIN is (9th of 9!) when it comes to acquiring Russell. Changes in the CBA have almost eliminated the big sign and trades.

Thought exercise: Where is Russell finding a mega-deal if the Nets pass? The Bulls just drafted a point guard. Utah traded for one. Dallas has a point forward; intel on what the Mavs might do with their cap space is all over the place. Orlando can open about $18 million in room only by renouncing rights to Nikola Vucevic. The Suns will sign a veteran point guard, and Devin Booker has campaigned for Russell -- a close friend. But other voices within the Suns may not share Booker's unabashed enthusiasm, sources say. They have only about $14 million or so in cap space as of now. We'll see how Phoenix approaches the point guard market. Indiana will have a hole at the position if Darren Collison leaves, and they will look at lots of targets -- including Russell. But they have so far focused on Ricky Rubio, sources have said.

(There is at least a kernel of truth to the Lakers' interest in a reunion, sources say, but L.A. has a lot to sort out. Russell fits the Knicks' timeline in case they strike out on bigger fish, but all indications are that New York will pursue short-term deals in that scenario, sources say. The Minnesota Timberwolves' pathway to a Russell deal is murky. Other unexpected sign-and-trade candidates will poke around.)

[UnFadeable21]

Zach Lowe says he polled 30 nba execs and they said Kyrie is worth 8 million more per year than Dlo

[wesleyt95]

Lets not forget Okogie shoots mostly bricks, if he’s the cost of attaining a 23yo all star so be it

You need some imagination. Okogie has great potential. He could develop into a Butler type. So could Culver. I'd be just fine with two non headcase Butler types.

I have imagination but I'm also realistic, we already saw D-Lo come into fruition in real life; not in my head. I pray Okogie reached his absolute full potential but I'm no fool.

[wesleyt95]

We aren’t contending for a title next season, with or without Russell. We are not required to choose our star starting PG from the choices in free agency this summer. In fact, waiting puts us in a better position, with more available PG’s (including next year’s draft and new trade candidates), and the negative contracts of Teague, Dieng and Wiggins are shorter, and would require less assets to move.

The Wolves just need to be patient. On a max deal that we hope he grows into, Russell has little upside, and a whole lot of downside.

Yes we are. The Warriors are done, Russell-Culver-Wiggins-Covington-Towns puts us on par with Denver; that's every bit on par with the lineups they were running. You have to believe!

[Klomp]

Zach Lowe says he polled 30 nba execs and they said Kyrie is worth 8 million more per year than Dlo

Keep in mind Irving is at a different maximum salary threshold....30% instead of 25%. So automatically his max is about $5-6 million more than Russell's.

[Klomp]

Great article. Thanks Dom. I was struck by how much of an afterthought MIN is (9th of 9!) when it comes to acquiring Russell. Changes in the CBA have almost eliminated the big sign and trades.

An afterthought? He wasn't ranking the destinations. This isn't an ordered list. You're reading much too far into it, I think.