Minutes Rotation

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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#21 » by KqWIN » Thu Jul 4, 2019 12:57 am

Luigi wrote:
KqWIN wrote:Both Ingles/Bojan will close. Who is the four is just a semantics argument that doesn't matter. Ingles is better on the perimeter, Bojan has more strength to fight in the post.

There really isn't a big PF on a good team that the Jazz should worry about defending. Alrdrige and Zinger will likely close at C. Millsap is probably the toughest matchup. But if Bogey can "guard" LeBron, don't see it as a huge issue to guard Millsap.


I think it it more than semantic. As it stands, the question is who is more rugged and capable of guarding the bigger player? But we can make it a more specific question. He's the list of 4s and 5s we'll be facing this year from good team (4s bolded):

Lakers - James, Davis, Kuzma
Nuggets - Millsap, Jokic
Blazers - Collins, Nurkic, Whiteside
Rockets - Tucker, Capela
Warriors - Green, Looney, Cauley-Stein
Thunder - Grant, Adams (Noel?)
Spurs - Aldridge, Poeltl, Gay
Pelicans - Zion, Favors
Kings - Bagley, Dedmon, Bjelica

Sixers - Horford, Embiid, Harris (Simmons)
Bucks - Giannis, Lopez
Pacers - Sabonis, Turner
Raptors - Siakam, Gasol, Ibaka
Celtics - Morris?, Kanter
Knicks - Entire roster.

That's a lot of big bodies getting a lot of minutes at the 4. The question is about how are we going to square up on defense with our personnel. Who's going to guard that 4, and for how long, and it that a good idea?


If Bojan/Ingles are on the floor it doesn't matter what the label is. We know that Bojan is guarding the bigger guy. Some are saying that Bojab can't play the 4 and Ingles will play the 4 instead...yeah it doesn't really matter what you call them.

I meant to say the west in my comment. Guys like Green, Tucker, Grant, Collins etc. I have zero concern about being small and guarding them. Hell, most of these guys were once considered undersized and might end up playing at the 5 anyways.

I would feel ok if Conley was guarding them. Size just isn't a very big advantage on offense unless you are a skilled scorer. If these teams suddenly want to switch up their offense to try to beat us with a power game....be my guest. I dare them too. There's a reason why nobody in the league does this.

Also, anyone without a shooting 5 I'm not too worried about either because it means Rudy will be there. Millsap and Bron are the two that I mentioned...but like I said, if you can guard LeBron, you can probably do better at guarding Millsap.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#22 » by KqWIN » Thu Jul 4, 2019 1:02 am

Luigi wrote:
KqWIN wrote:Trying to make a rotation is more difficult than listing the minutes.


I agree. But I think my level of description will actually be more predictive about season minutes than trying to work through an actual rotation for a particular game (which is why I chose an averaged game at the outset), with all of the synergies involved. (It's the same kind of prediction error effect we see from individuals trying to guess which state will go to which candidate, and adding it all up in the end, vs making a general prediction about the outcome. The latter is much more accurate for individuals making guesses.) But by all means, go for a specific rotation if you'd like--that's fun to do in a different way.


It wasn't a critique, it's just an exercise that I like to go through to see which lineup combinations and decisions Quin will face. Sometimes you think a guys should be playing 20 minutes and then you realize it's only possible if he plays a weird rotation. Maybe a random 3 minute split.

Right now, the only thing I feel good about predicting is that Gobert will have his standard two stint (equal length) rotation. I wonder if Quin is going to stagger or try to go hockey style with a bench mob. Davis can't play with Gobert, that's obvious. But other than that, Exum+O'Neale is the only thing I find myself trying to avoid. But it's hard to do if both are coming off the bench.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#23 » by Luigi » Thu Jul 4, 2019 1:20 am

KqWIN wrote:
Luigi wrote:
KqWIN wrote:Both Ingles/Bojan will close. Who is the four is just a semantics argument that doesn't matter. Ingles is better on the perimeter, Bojan has more strength to fight in the post.

There really isn't a big PF on a good team that the Jazz should worry about defending. Alrdrige and Zinger will likely close at C. Millsap is probably the toughest matchup. But if Bogey can "guard" LeBron, don't see it as a huge issue to guard Millsap.


I think it it more than semantic. As it stands, the question is who is more rugged and capable of guarding the bigger player? But we can make it a more specific question. He's the list of 4s and 5s we'll be facing this year from good team (4s bolded):

Lakers - James, Davis, Kuzma
Nuggets - Millsap, Jokic
Blazers - Collins, Nurkic, Whiteside
Rockets - Tucker, Capela
Warriors - Green, Looney, Cauley-Stein
Thunder - Grant, Adams (Noel?)
Spurs - Aldridge, Poeltl, Gay
Pelicans - Zion, Favors
Kings - Bagley, Dedmon, Bjelica

Sixers - Horford, Embiid, Harris (Simmons)
Bucks - Giannis, Lopez
Pacers - Sabonis, Turner
Raptors - Siakam, Gasol, Ibaka
Celtics - Morris?, Kanter
Knicks - Entire roster.

That's a lot of big bodies getting a lot of minutes at the 4. The question is about how are we going to square up on defense with our personnel. Who's going to guard that 4, and for how long, and it that a good idea?


If Bojan/Ingles are on the floor it doesn't matter what the label is. [b]We know that Bojan is guarding the bigger guy. Some are saying that Bojab can't play the 4 and Ingles will play the 4 instead...yeah it doesn't really matter what you call them.[/b]


I don't think that's agreed upon. In fact, that's exactly what I think people are saying when they say Ingles will play the minutes at 4. They're not arguing about labels. They are disagreeing about who is better suited to guard bigger players. I think that may be Ingles, depending on the match up.

I meant to say the west in my comment. Guys like Green, Tucker, Grant, Collins etc. I have zero concern about being small and guarding them. Hell, most of these guys were once considered undersized and might end up playing at the 5 anyways.

I would feel ok if Conley was guarding them. Size just isn't a very big advantage on offense unless you are a skilled scorer. If these teams suddenly want to switch up their offense to try to beat us with a power game....be my guest. I dare them too. There's a reason why nobody in the league does this.

Also, anyone without a shooting 5 I'm not too worried about either because it means Rudy will be there. Millsap and Bron are the two that I mentioned...but like I said, if you can guard LeBron, you can probably do better at guarding Millsap.


I think there is cause for concern. I mean, why don't NBA coaches just put Conley on 4s to begin with?

First, there is a big size, strength, grit difference. I take that to be obvious, but it feels like people are trying to ignore it. Draymond Green is very strong. Tucker is probably the easiest for us, but he's certainly more rugged than our guy. Collins is listed at 7 foot, 235. He's also athletic, and has played center most of his career. Millsap is a lot stronger than our guys, and a beast on the boards. Aldridge is obviously a big problem. Zion will have great nights against us, like he did against smaller guys in college. Bagley is listed at 6'11, 234. It is also possible that the Lakers sign Cousins if they miss on Leonard, meaning Davis at 4 more often, who is 6'10, 253. Not to mention the east. For reference, Joe Ingles is 6'8 226, Bojan Bogdanovic is 6'8, 216. Neither has played any real time at 4 in their career.

So who is better guarding guys that size? You think it's Bojan. Others think it's Joe. I think neither can do it very well (thank goodness we have Jeff Green). I believe this because to go small, you usually use a player like Tucker or Green, who is very tough despite being smaller, and so can guard bigger players. The reason small ball lineps are more efficient isn't because bigger players are simply worse. It is because proper small ball lineups don't give up anything on defense, thanks to having undersized bulldogs at the 4, who then take advantage of their size mismatch on offense. Then they make you pay on the other end by drawing your guy out. So if the plan is to go small without a bulldog (Joe and Bojan aren't), and simply to accept the mismatch in our defense, then we have a shootout on our hands (not a very strong strategy in the playoffs). So I think we disagree about whether we can go small and not take a hit on defense for it (again, not a debate about semantics or labels).

Anyway, I'm curious, why you take Bojan defending those guys more than Joe? Joe is listed with the weight advantage. I don't have combine numbers on him. Bojan has a 8'8 standing reach. Joe has a 8'9 standing reach. Plus he's clearly the better defender to begin with, and might be able to use those skills to handle the player with the size advantages.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#24 » by KqWIN » Thu Jul 4, 2019 1:38 am

Sure, there could be disagreements about Bojan vs Ingles and who is more capable of guarding bigger guys. Or whose worse at guarding quicker guards. Bojan has a history of guarding strong, powerful players. Ingles has a history of being able to guard smaller players and contest them from behind in our drop scheme.

Ultimately, I am not that worried about being the smaller team. The Jazz tried for years with two bigs, and we never saw an advantage on offense from it. We had our best go with two bigs when we tucked Favors into a corner. I'm especially not worried about being smaller when the other team doesn't have a stretch 5 or their "strong" PF is really just a spot up shooter.

I'm worried about boxing these guys out but I'm not worried about teams running their offense through bigs that they never run it through.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#25 » by KqWIN » Thu Jul 4, 2019 2:02 am

My attempt on a rotation. Did not stagger Mitchell+Conley to keep one on the floor at all times.

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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#26 » by Luigi » Thu Jul 4, 2019 2:05 am

KqWIN wrote:Ultimately, I am not that worried about being the smaller team. The Jazz tried for years with two bigs, and we never saw an advantage on offense from it. We had our best go with two bigs when we tucked Favors into a corner. I'm especially not worried about being smaller when the other team doesn't have a stretch 5 or their "strong" PF is really just a spot up shooter.


We didn't run it very often, but when Favors was in the corner, I think that was mostly because we had other non shooters on the floor that made it unviable. Rubio, Exum, and to some extent Crowder. It seemed like a mistake to me to launch all those open 3s from bad shooters, and I think we payed for it in the playoffs. Favors was fairly efficient in pick and roll/pop scenarios when there were shooters off the action to pass it to. But it doesn't have to run through the bigger guy to get an advantage (though they will when it is Aldridge, Davis or James, Green, Millsap, Zion, or Horford, Giannis, or Sabonis). Besides keeping them off the glass, there's a lot of other factors to watch for when your guy is smaller. Hopefully we can minimize them, and use Jeff Green as our bulldog for half a game.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#27 » by Inigo Montoya » Thu Jul 4, 2019 2:13 pm

KqWIN wrote:RS

G Conley (33) - Exum (15)
G Mitchell (33) - O'Neale (15)
F Bogdanovic (10) - Ingles (28)
F Green (20) - Bogdonovic (20) - Niang (8)
C Gobert (33) - Davis (15)

PO

G Conley (38) - Mitchell (10)
G Mitchell (28) - O'Neale (20)
F Bogdanovic (12) - Ingles (36)
F Green (24) - Bogdanovic (24)
C Gobert (38) - Davis (10)


I'm assuming Exum got himself injured during the regular season an thus gets zero minutes in the playoffs?
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#28 » by dr0welf » Thu Jul 4, 2019 7:19 pm

Inigo Montoya wrote:
KqWIN wrote:RS

G Conley (33) - Exum (15)
G Mitchell (33) - O'Neale (15)
F Bogdanovic (10) - Ingles (28)
F Green (20) - Bogdonovic (20) - Niang (8)
C Gobert (33) - Davis (15)

PO

G Conley (38) - Mitchell (10)
G Mitchell (28) - O'Neale (20)
F Bogdanovic (12) - Ingles (36)
F Green (24) - Bogdanovic (24)
C Gobert (38) - Davis (10)


I'm assuming Exum got himself injured during the regular season an thus gets zero minutes in the playoffs?



LOL wonder if Vegas has odds on that scenario. It's so likely the odds are probably horrible. 3/2 or something.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#29 » by KqWIN » Fri Jul 5, 2019 5:34 pm

Tony Jones keeps mentioning Royce as possible starter...that might be the way I would go.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#30 » by stitches » Fri Jul 5, 2019 5:46 pm

KqWIN wrote:Tony Jones keeps mentioning Royce as possible starter...that might be the way I would go.

Keep in mind we haven't had that many new pieces to integrate at once in a while. How we start is probably not how we are going to finish the season. Quin will probably experiment with different variations and end up on whatever turns out to work best.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#31 » by KqWIN » Fri Jul 5, 2019 5:50 pm

stitches wrote:
KqWIN wrote:Tony Jones keeps mentioning Royce as possible starter...that might be the way I would go.

Keep in mind we haven't had that many new pieces to integrate at once in a while. How we start is probably not how we are going to finish the season. Quin will probably experiment with different variations and end up on whatever turns out to work best.


I hope so. The West is very unforgiving, but I hope we do lots of experimenting with different lineup combos and styles of play. If it costs us a couple games I'm ok with it because it'll pay off during the playoffs. It's better to work out the kinks of a new strategy during the regular season instead of games 1&2 in a playoff series.

I really like this team if we can get to the playoffs healthy and with more diverse strategy.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#32 » by mudsak » Fri Jul 5, 2019 7:33 pm

KqWIN wrote:I'll tell you what, it might make most sense to start Royce. The one combo I keep trying to avoid is Exum-Royce. Hard to do that when they are both coming off the bench.


Why would you want to avoid Exum and Royce?

This bench mob looks solid to me...

Exum
Royce
Ingles
Niang
Davis

4 out of 5 positions are above average defensively...the combo of Exum/Royce in the backcourt is a nightmare for opposing offenses.
3 out of 5 can shoot the 3 at 40%.
2 can slash/get above the rim.
2 are proficient playmakers and run the p/r well.
1 is the all-time GOAT and looks like your local plumber.
Not sure as to how well of a roller Davis is. Imagine Green might play a bit with this unit as well.
Might still be a bit of a hole left behind by Favs on this roster, but overall I'd say that 2nd unit looks really potent.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#33 » by mudsak » Fri Jul 5, 2019 7:39 pm

KqWIN wrote:My attempt on a rotation. Did not stagger Mitchell+Conley to keep one on the floor at all times.

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This makes me think that maybe we need another guy to add at the 4. I'd prefer to see Bojan log a few less minutes just from a load management standpoint. He's already had some milage on him.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#34 » by SoCalJazzFan » Fri Jul 5, 2019 7:40 pm

KqWIN wrote:Tony Jones keeps mentioning Royce as possible starter...that might be the way I would go.

I saw Locke and TJ mention that before the Conley deal was done, but I haven't seen as much of it recently (I haven't been following either much the last couple of days, though). I think that this might have been setting up the expectations of the fans in the event DM ended up being the lead guard playing alongside Royce. Now, I'm not sure I would give him minutes over MC, DM, Bojan, Ingles unless they are injured or their minutes are being managed.

It wouldn't completely surprise me, though, if the Jazz are hoping that either DM or Exum end up a legitimate lead guard, which could impact how they end up playing at times or over time. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me that if in a year or two the Jazz publicly announce that Conley was brought in for large measure to help DM become that PG.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#35 » by zero24gravity » Fri Jul 5, 2019 11:54 pm

mudsak wrote:
This makes me think that maybe we need another guy to add at the 4. I'd prefer to see Bojan log a few less minutes just from a load management standpoint. He's already had some milage on him.


Don't want to put very high expectations on a late 2nd round pick, but maybe Brantley will end up being that extra 4 that the team needs. He seems to be able to do a little bit of everything and is really athletic. Most of all, from what I saw in SLC Summer League, I just like the way he carries himself. He seems hard nosed & has a "aura" that he isn't going to back down & looks like he really believes in himself compared to the other summer league players. A little bit of a swagger perhaps? Reminds me some of Trevor Booker.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#36 » by Jingles2 » Sat Jul 6, 2019 11:33 pm

If we are forced to go big

Conley 30, Mitchell 18
Mitchell 16, Exum/Oneale 28, Ingles 4
Bogdanovic 30, Ingles 20
Green 24, Ingles 6, Davis 18
Gobert 32, Bradley 16

If we go small

Conley 30, Mitchell 18
Mitchell 16, Exum/Oneale 32
Bogdanovic 30, Ingles 18
Green 24, Ingles 10, Niang 14
Gobert 32, Davis 16
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#37 » by KqWIN » Mon Jul 8, 2019 6:01 pm

I think it's somewhat likely that by the end of the year, the consensus will be that Royce is a better player than Bojan and he'll be the one closing games.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#38 » by stitches » Mon Jul 8, 2019 6:25 pm

KqWIN wrote:I think it's somewhat likely that by the end of the year, the consensus will be that Royce is a better player than Bojan and he'll be the one closing games.

That would be kind of disastrous...
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#39 » by babyjax13 » Mon Jul 8, 2019 6:49 pm

stitches wrote:
KqWIN wrote:I think it's somewhat likely that by the end of the year, the consensus will be that Royce is a better player than Bojan and he'll be the one closing games.

That would be kind of disastrous...


Or the exact opposite of disastrous. I don't see it as that likely, Bojan is a heck of a player and I wouldn't be surprised if he's our second leading scorer.
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Re: Minutes Rotation 

Post#40 » by KqWIN » Mon Jul 8, 2019 6:52 pm

I just don't think Bojan is as good as we think he is, and I believe in Royce's development.

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