Thunder Offseason Thread

[Old Man Game]

zach lowe says trading russell westbrook and not giving up a 1st round pick is a win.

Just trade everyone else to get below the tax. Make Russ come off the bench. SGA starts. Get lottery picks.

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[oreojenkins]

zach lowe says trading russell westbrook and not giving up a 1st round pick is a win.

The idea that they'd give up Westbrook with assets when it's only money at this point is absurd. It's not like they'll need cap space pre-2022ish. There's always a team out there willing to take on a big name on a bad deal. Charlotte literally just gave Terry Rozier 20 million a year lol. I'm sure he'd say that's an awful deal, too. But it happened, and deals like that always find a way to happen. OKC has the flexibility to just sit and wait now.

[slick_watts]

zach lowe says trading russell westbrook and not giving up a 1st round pick is a win.

I think he's right but I kind of feel like momentum is on our side. Like you always say with basketball, it's all about who has the hot hand/clutch gene. Right now its sam.

the sentiment of the nba talking heads is not always an accurate read on the valuation of nba players in management circles but i don't think westbrook's been broken long enough that his value is on par with john wall or andrew wiggins, judging by what nba people have to say about him and how ardently his performance is defended by his peers.

[Old Man Game]

zach lowe says trading russell westbrook and not giving up a 1st round pick is a win.

The idea that they'd give up Westbrook with assets when it's only money at this point is absurd. It's not like they'll need cap space pre-2022ish. There's always a team out there willing to take on a big name on a bad deal. Charlotte literally just gave Terry Rozier 20 million a year lol. I'm sure he'd say that's an awful deal, too. But it happened, and deals like that always find a way to happen. OKC has the flexibility to just sit and wait now.

Exactly. Gallo comes off the books after this year too.

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[spearsy23]

Slick, playing the only three chords he knows.

[Pillendreher]

Slick, playing the only three chords he knows.

Four is all you need, really. G-C-Em-D.

[Old Man Game]

Slick, playing the only three chords he knows.

Four is all you need, really. G-C-Em-D.

There's even good songs with two actually.

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[Pillendreher]

Read on Twitter

Jabari would be a perfect tank commander.

[slick_watts]

Slick, playing the only three chords he knows.

Four is all you need, really. G-C-Em-D.

There's even good songs with two actually.

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born in the u.s.a.?

[spearsy23]

Read on Twitter

Jabari would be a perfect tank commander.

And Justin holiday would be there opposite of that

[Old Man Game]

Four is all you need, really. G-C-Em-D.

There's even good songs with two actually.

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born in the u.s.a.?

Jane Says is just G and A if memory serves.

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[ozwizard8]

Russ / SGA / Dennis
Ferguson / Roberson / Burks / SGA
Gallo / Roberson / Bazley
Grant / Gallo / Moose
Adams / Noel

Run it or flip Gallo / Roberson / Ferg / Dennis + some of these new picks for a quality ball player or two

what no. if they go into the season with that nonsense then sam presti loses all the dap he got for making this trade in the first place. even worse if he wastes some of these assets trying to 'flip for a quality ball player or two'. this era is over. it's rebuild time.

What if they use couple of picks and Adams to get a mobile big men?
Maybe also salary dump trade for Dennis and go under the repeater tax.

I'll restate this. Trade was excellent.
They could've lose PG last year for nothing. Maybe they promised him they'll ease his way out to sign him that 3+1 year deal.
That many picks and pick swap rights are best you can get. I bet that many picks and GSA+Gallinari would net B.Beal easily.

Teams become really conservative to give unprotected picks. Multiple of them with also pick swaps, picks from Miami. This is insane. They just do it for Kawhi. OKC got lottery. If PG requested a trade OKC would eventually trade him for much less.

Only issue with Presti is his coaching choices. He build 2 good teams in last 2 years to compete. B.Donovan ruined it. Its simple as that. Instead of changing coach he always go to the changing players route. Its a big mistake on his part but still this franchise made playoffs every year. The team he constructed usually looked like top 4 in West. And without getting in a dark tank years, he managed to get massive haul for rebuilding.

Considering that most of the valuable picks are going to be after 2021, Presti can still decide to run with WB too. Ideally, you'd trade WB now but I'd understand if they want to stay in playoff contention for selling tickets and such. 1st round exit would be likely result but still you'd compete. They can try to reorganize team and run 2 more years. Maybe spend a pick or two to get better players.

Last year PG could've gone to LA without any compensation.
Now he brought a massive overhaul for rebuild. And one good thing is you don't need to rebuild immediately. Valueable picks are not coming in 2-3 years. OKC can still try to win with WB and let him finish his contract and career as Thunder.

[spearsy23]

Insider video of Russ conversing with Presti right now

Watch on YouTube

[Pillendreher]

Read on Twitter

Anybody got ESPN+?

[ThunderBolt]

Read on Twitter

[RalphSampsonJr]

Whats this discontent that shams is putting out there?

How can Russ be discontent with the Thunder? Sam has gone out of his way to get him a 2nd star. Its Russ that hasnt turned up in the post season and now hes on the decline.

They need to go full rebuild. Get Russ to miami or new york and just start from scratch.

Or maybe the fact that we didn't go after a single NBA level wing in two full seasons.

Thats a bit unfair though. Sam would have tried. He tried with Melo and with Shroder. Yea they arent wings but he tried to get the most out of the situations. Robes going down wasnt part of the plan

[ThunderBolt]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

On the Gb. Don't know the reliability of the sources.

[ThunderBolt]

How would it even work with Miami? If we make them better, we hurt ourselves since we have their picks.

[Thunder Up]

Russ isn't getting traded

[slick_watts]

Read on Twitter

Anybody got ESPN+?

Westbrook's value
Westbrook is in the second season of a five-year supermax extension that began in 2019-20 and will pay him a total of $171 million over the next four seasons. He has a 15% trade bonus as well, but because the 8% raise between the first and second years of Westbrook's contract was larger than the increase in the NBA salary cap (7.1% growth), he's already making more than the 2019-20 maximum salary and therefore would not be eligible to receive the bonus.

Barring an unexpected jump in the salary cap, Westbrook will remain among the league's handful of highest-paid players through the life of his contract. Only Stephen Curry ($40.2 million) is set to make more this year and in 2020-21 before James Harden and John Wall surpass Westbrook in 2021-22 because their own supermax extensions, which begin this season, feature slightly larger year-to-year raises.

As Westbrook's salary continues to increase, his production on the court is in decline. Despite Westbrook increasingly taking a back seat to George in the Thunder's offense the past two seasons, his efficiency has also dropped both years since his MVP campaign in 2016-17. With Westbrook slumping badly at the free throw line (the career 80% foul shooter hit just 65.6% of his attempts), last season's 50.1 true shooting percentage was Westbrook's worst since 2009-10, when he was age 21.

Since Westbrook isn't a spot-up threat -- he shot just 32% on catch-and-shoot 3s last season according to Second Spectrum tracking data on NBA Advanced Stats, and was around 34% the previous three years -- shifting him to a lower-usage role off the ball as he ages might not be a good option.

At the same time, Westbrook's demise has probably been exaggerated. Based on a combination of results from my SCHOENE projection systems using how similar players have aged and multiyear projections of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), I estimate Westbrook will produce 14.8 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2019-20, sixth-most in the NBA. His three-year outlook of 36.2 WAR ranks eighth over that span.

Those lofty projections are driven in part by Westbrook's durability. The 11,000-plus minutes he's played over the past four years also rank sixth in the league according to Basketball-Reference.com.

The mileage Westbrook has accumulated could become an issue. His left knee figures to be a particular source of concern to interested suitors. Westbrook suffered a torn meniscus in the knee during the 2013 playoffs, and a series of surgeries ultimately cost him much of the 2013-14 campaign. The knee hadn't kept Westbrook off the court until he underwent another arthroscopy on it in September 2018, sidelining him through training camp and the first two games of the 2018-19 regular season.

Ultimately, it will be difficult for Westbrook to live up to his salary over the next four seasons. It's not realistic for a player who will turn 34 during the final year of the contract to remain among the top handful of stars in the league, particularly given Westbrook's dependence on otherworldly athleticism for his style of play. Still, he should remain an All-Star-caliber player much of the deal so long as he avoids injuries. As a result, it's easy to see why teams looking for a path to contention would be interested in Westbrook.

Possible Westbrook suitors
After failing to land a star in free agency, the New York Knicks loom as the most reasonable destination for Westbrook. The Knicks couldn't make such a deal until December 15, when they'll be able to trade the players they did sign as free agents to match salary. Because all those players save Julius Randle signed two-year deals with a team option for 2020-21, New York could offer the Thunder maximum financial flexibility, as well as young point guard Dennis Smith Jr. and possibly draft picks.

More than perhaps any other team, the Knicks could justify giving up value for Westbrook because of the possibility he'll help them compete for top free agents again. One of the lessons of this offseason is it typically takes one star -- either committed via free agency or already on the roster -- to lure a second, and Westbrook would provide New York the star power and on-court competence the team has lacked in recent years.

The Phoenix Suns are another team that could talk themselves into Westbrook helping them return to relevance. As with the Knicks, any Suns deal would likely have to wait until December 15, when Phoenix could include Ricky Rubio as matching salary. A Rubio-Tyler Johnson package would save Oklahoma City approximately $24 million in 2020-21 but would leave the Thunder on the hook for Rubio's entire three-year contract, which might not make sense with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander already in place as the Thunder's point guard of the future following the George deal.

On ESPN Radio Saturday, Brian Windhorst mentioned the Houston Rockets and Miami Heat as possible Westbrook destinations. The Rockets might see a Westbrook trade as an opportunity to get out of their own massive contract for an aging point guard, Chris Paul -- he also began a 35% max contract in 2018-19, will make an identical amount to Westbrook over the next three years but has one fewer season remaining on his deal. Westbrook was the more valuable player in 2018-19, something that is unlikely to change given Paul is nearly four years older and has had more difficulty staying on the court.

As intriguing as a Paul-Westbrook swap would be -- it would bring Paul back where he started his career, as the New Orleans Hornets played in Oklahoma City his first two seasons in the NBA prior to the Thunder's move from Seattle -- I don't think it's realistic. I doubt the two sides could agree on the right compensation in terms of picks to square the value between Paul and Westbrook, and Oklahoma City probably wants more cap flexibility after a Westbrook move than taking on Paul's salary would provide.

A trade with Miami would be complicated by the Heat's need to stay under a hard cap of $138.9 million after completing a sign-and-trade deal for Jimmy Butler. After waiving Ryan Anderson and stretching his $15.6 million guarantee for 2019-20, Miami has just $1.8 million in wiggle room according to my ESPN colleague Bobby Marks. So any trade would need to be cap-neutral or subtract money from the Heat's payroll. That's bad news for the Thunder, who would presumably like to reduce their own tax bill on a Westbrook trade. Both sides could solve their financial issues by finding a third team to take back one of the players involved, most likely Miami point guard Goran Dragic.

Beyond that, having dealt a protected 2023 first-round pick as part of the Butler deal, the Heat can't trade a first-rounder until 2025 at the earliest. So Oklahoma City would have to value one of Miami's young players, most likely Justise Winslow, to get any value out of a Westbrook trade with the Heat.