If you were the GM -- your 2019 off season

[payitforward]

Ok so no Milwaukee trade. I'm ok with the Bertans deal instead.

For Boston, if their only offering the 20, 22 they need
would have needed come up with another asset or pick. Maybe a future 2nd. I'd go Clarke & Windler.

The picks used to acquire Delon come from the Sato deal.

The pick sent to Portland comes from the Wagner deal.

I'd do the deal for the #42 and draft Bol Bol since I missed out on Bitadze.

The Shumpert deal at 1 yr makes alot of sense, he can swing b/w the 2/3

G Delon Wright ... Troy Brown Jr ... John Wall
G Bradley Beal ... Iman Shumpert ... Jordan McRae
F Jake Layman ... Dylan Windler ... Jermerrio Jones
F Davis Bertans ... Brandon Clarke ... Noah Vonleh
C Thomas Bryant ... Bol Bol ... Moritz Wagner

This team may be a little better than the original
albeit Bol is a much more riskier bet than Bitadze.

Dat... this is the picture that needs to be changed: you've got 15 guys here, without Mahinmi, Bonga & Howard.

Your 15 guys (assuming Shumpert signs for $2m) costs just over $115m. Good!

But... Mahinmi, Bonga & Howard are owed a combined $23.5m. You are @$6m into the luxury tax. Bad!

We're not paying the luxury tax, so... Mr. GM -- what are you going to do?

Oh, and sorry no extra asset from Ainge. You turning down the trade in that case? Nah, I didn't think so.

Howard was dealt for Layman. I dump Wagner's deal on anyone who wants to take a shot on him and absorb his salary. That should give me some breathing room.

Lastly I accepted Boston's crappy offer lol!

Forgot about Howard going in the Layman deal. But... why would Portland help us out? We're taking Layman from them; why do they do us the favor of taking Howard?

If they do, however, there's no need to find someone for Mo Wagner.

(But, of course, in the real world... they don't take Howard off our hands. They punish us for poaching Layman by letting us stew. & there you have one of the reasons why Tommy gets stuck doing a deal like the one that brought us Miles....)

[Dat2U]

Dat... this is the picture that needs to be changed: you've got 15 guys here, without Mahinmi, Bonga & Howard.

Your 15 guys (assuming Shumpert signs for $2m) costs just over $115m. Good!

But... Mahinmi, Bonga & Howard are owed a combined $23.5m. You are @$6m into the luxury tax. Bad!

We're not paying the luxury tax, so... Mr. GM -- what are you going to do?

Oh, and sorry no extra asset from Ainge. You turning down the trade in that case? Nah, I didn't think so.

Howard was dealt for Layman. I dump Wagner's deal on anyone who wants to take a shot on him and absorb his salary. That should give me some breathing room.

Lastly I accepted Boston's crappy offer lol!

Forgot about Howard going in the Layman deal. But... why would Portland help us out? We're taking Layman from them; why do they do us the favor of taking Howard?

If they do, however, there's no need to find someone for Mo Wagner.

(But, of course, in the real world... they don't take Howard off our hands. They punish us for poaching Layman by letting us stew. & there you have one of the reasons why Tommy gets stuck doing a deal like the one that brought us Miles....)

Actually they're getting a 2nd rounder & there's this

"We're extremely appreciative of how hard Neil Olshey worked with us to accommodate what we were trying to accomplish in sign and trade," Layman’s agent, Mark Bartelstein told ESPN. "The deal couldn't have happened without the Blazers looking out for Jake's best interests."

Facilitating a deal of this nature is something Olshey has done in the past and it shows his organization to be player- and agent-friendly, which can pay off later

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsports.com/northwest/portland-trail-blazers/jake-layman-era-ends-portland-trade-minnesota%3famp

[payitforward]

Ok, fair enough. But... come on -- it's fun putting you through the ringer every once in a while!

But, in fact the Blazers didn't get a R2 pick in the deal; they got the rights to a nobody. Plus, they only traded Layman because they are in the tax & need to lower costs. Taking back Howard wouldn't have worked with them.

It's tough being a GM!

[dckingsfan]

Sorry, no.

You want that #14/20 combo, you gotta have more to give than the #9. Not to mention that, anyway, when you make the trade you have no idea that Doumbouya will be there at #14 -- he's not your target.

Easy fantasies are not what's wanted in this thread. This thread is what you would/could really do as an actual GM.

Actually, he was - remember, I am a huge Eurohoops junkie.

But rules are rules... and you are right looking backward it was an "easy fantasy".

My goal would have been to trade down and grab a pair of forwards and move Brown Jr to the PG position. I think with the right development Doumbouya could be pretty good in a couple of years.

Sekou wasn't your target at #14 -- you had him going higher. That means 2 things: 1) you actually had some other players in mind; Sekou fell to you, so you took him. But, if you really wanted Sekou you wouldn't have made the trade.

IOW, we're not asking, "What would have been optimal if you knew in advance how every pick would go?" There's nothing to that. We're asking: what would you do as the GM in a situation of uncertainty?

Nor are you getting the #14 & 20. Sorry. Best you get from Boston is 20 & 22. Moreover, "trade down and grab a pair of forwards" ain't a plan. Who are you thinking you might get? You do get lucky and find Clarke there at #20, but, in truth, I doubt you are projecting him that low.

So, tell me... you really like Sekou. What do you really do? Do you stand pat & take Sekou @#9? Or do you trade down to 20 & 22 & assume you'll do well? Whichever you choose, that's the beginning of your 2019 off season.

Come on, man, do it. What's your real off season. I'm thinking you take Sekou at #9. & then... what?

This will come off as a copout - but Dat's ideas are soooo much better... without that trade my plan falls apart.

[doclinkin]

Dat... this is the picture that needs to be changed: you've got 15 guys here, without Mahinmi, Bonga & Howard.

Your 15 guys (assuming Shumpert signs for $2m) costs just over $115m. Good!

But... Mahinmi, Bonga & Howard are owed a combined $23.5m. You are @$6m into the luxury tax. Bad!

We're not paying the luxury tax, so... Mr. GM -- what are you going to do?

Your rules to start the thread didn’t explicitly say no lux tax. I feel like if the team were able to nearly pirouette from hapless to relevant in a single offseason —and given that 30 million of Johns contract is likely to be picked up by insurance— Ted could be convinced to pay the tax while one last bad deal expires (Ian). If it meant retaining Beal long term and changing the narrative on the Wiz I can see him giving the room to do it.

It still means cutting a guy to fit the 15 man roster. Unless the DPE grants you an extra roster spot for that one year or expiring deal. Hmm.

[nate33]

PG Sato/Robinson
SG Beal/K.Johnson
SF Brown Jr./Shumpert
PF Hachimura/Parker
C Bryant/Vonleh
End of Bench: Wagner, McRae, Mahinmi, Bonga, Wall

I like this team. I could cheer for that squad.

I do like the Shumpert pickup. Keldon Johnson is the very next guy I have after Windler, I would have been happy with either.

I'd have been cool with keeping Sato although Delon was my first choice.

To tinker, I'd let Brown run the second unit and see what he could do as a PG and sign Jake Layman to fill our the starting lineup.

Still don't think much of Jabari. Bertans isn't the shor creator but he can knock down open shots.

I like that team too. I do think Bertans would be better for this team next year than Jabari because of the skill set he provides. My rationale for Jabari is that I think he is a long term asset that can be either used or flipped whereas Bertans is gone in a year. But I don't feel that strongly either way. I'd be fine with Bertans as well, particularly on this team that actually looks competitive.

One final point on your tweaks, I don't think we could afford both Layman and Shumpert under the luxtax. Obviously, we could pay the luxtax with the Wall insurance money, but we don't know if Ted is willing to do so. And Layman was sign-and-traded by Portland. It would cost us that Lakers pick we obtained in the Wagner acquisition, leaving us with no future 2nd round picks.

With your tweaks to my team, it would look like this:

PG Sato/Brown Jr.
SG Beal/K.Johnson
SF Layman/Shumpert
PF Bertans/Hachimura
C Bryant/Vonleh
End of Bench: Wagner, McRae, Robinson, Mahinmi, Bonga, Wall

That's a pretty good team! In a year, Shumpert departs, Wall moves back to starting PG, and Brown moves to starting SF.

[payitforward]

Ok, my finalized version:

Draft:
I try to trade our #9 for Boston's #s 14 & 20, but Ainge points out that by doing so I am violating the rules of PIF's game, so he has to say no. So, I take #s20 & 22 instead. Then, I call my friends at SA & trade my #22 to them for their #s 29 & 49 & their R2 pick next year. This works on the Pelton scale. Then I do Tommy's deal with Philly.

I take Brandon Clarke (#20), Keldon Johnson (#29), Bol Bol (#42), & Quinndary Weatherspoon (#49). I sign Robinson undrafted. I sign Ponds, Happ & Garrison the Pale to SL contracts -- 2 of them will wind up w/ 2-way contracts

After the draft:
Resign Bryant 4 yrs - 36 mil
Sign Tyus Jones for 3 years @ $8m/year
Trade Sato to Chicago for multiple 2nd rounders.
Use trade exceptions to acquire Wagner, Bonga, Jones & a 2022 2nd rounder
Sign Noah Vonleh to 3 year BAE deal with team option on 2nd year ($4m / year?)
Sign Jake Layman to $4.2 mil/year for 3 years. It's a sign and trade -- they get rights to Sanon (this would work for them: see actual Layman deal)

PG Tyus Jones / Robinson / Wall / Bonga
SG Beal / Johnson / Weatherspoon
F Layman / T. Brown Jr / Je. Jones
F Vonleh / Clarke / Wagner
C Bryant / Bol Bol / Mahinmi

Buy out Howard & spend the Summer trying to get rid of Wagner (to get down to 15). Someone will give us a R2 pick for him. Doing the arithmetic in my head, I think this is comfortably under the tax.

If we preferred Delon Wright to Tyus Jones, I think we'd still stay under the tax. But... costs us at least one more R2 pick, doesn't it? No room for Shumpert.

I like this over Dat's version, etc., because it's more future oriented -- a very young team, but still (barely) respectable this year with no chance we keep ourselves out of the lottery! I also think we have more tradable assets along this path. No one-year guys. Still plenty of room to maneuver next off season. We also come out of it with 1 or 2 more future R2 picks.

[payitforward]

Dat... this is the picture that needs to be changed: you've got 15 guys here, without Mahinmi, Bonga & Howard.

Your 15 guys (assuming Shumpert signs for $2m) costs just over $115m. Good!

But... Mahinmi, Bonga & Howard are owed a combined $23.5m. You are @$6m into the luxury tax. Bad!

We're not paying the luxury tax, so... Mr. GM -- what are you going to do?

Your rules to start the thread didn’t explicitly say no lux tax. ....

Fair enough -- & we'd have all season to try to make a move that sneaks us under the tax....

[nate33]

I like the Tyus Jones idea. He certainly would have been better than Ish Smith. Better, younger, and cheaper.

It looks like we all agree that Noah Vonleh and Jake Layman would have been very good, cost effective targets in free agency. And getting one of Sato, Dorell Wright or Tyus Jones would have been a more preferable PG solution than Ish Smith. These were all very realistic possibilities.

In the draft we were all willing to trade down a few spots and I think the end result would have been equivalent to what we ended up with at #9 plus we'd have an extra late pick to work with. With that pick, it looks like Keldon Johnson was a consensus favorite, but that's with the benefit of hindsight. In the thick of things on draft night, it's tough to say exactly what we'd do with two late picks. Dat2U would certainly have drafted Windler.

[dckingsfan]

I like the Tyus Jones idea. He certainly would have been better than Ish Smith. Better, younger, and cheaper.

It looks like we all agree that Noah Vonleh and Jake Layman would have been very good, cost effective targets in free agency. And getting one of Sato, Dorell Wright or Tyus Jones would have been a more preferable PG solution than Ish Smith. These were all very realistic possibilities.

In the draft we were all willing to trade down a few spots and I think the end result would have been equivalent to what we ended up with at #9 plus we'd have an extra late pick to work with. With that pick, it looks like Keldon Johnson was a consensus favorite, but that's with the benefit of hindsight. In the thick of things on draft night, it's tough to say exactly what we'd do with two late picks. Dat2U would certainly have drafted Windler.

Agreed with all above... it's really wasn't as difficult as it ended up being.

[Ruzious]

I like the Tyus Jones idea. He certainly would have been better than Ish Smith. Better, younger, and cheaper.

It looks like we all agree that Noah Vonleh and Jake Layman would have been very good, cost effective targets in free agency. And getting one of Sato, Dorell Wright or Tyus Jones would have been a more preferable PG solution than Ish Smith. These were all very realistic possibilities.

In the draft we were all willing to trade down a few spots and I think the end result would have been equivalent to what we ended up with at #9 plus we'd have an extra late pick to work with. With that pick, it looks like Keldon Johnson was a consensus favorite, but that's with the benefit of hindsight. In the thick of things on draft night, it's tough to say exactly what we'd do with two late picks. Dat2U would certainly have drafted Windler.

Agreed with all above... it's really wasn't as difficult as it ended up being.

Not to be a pain, but I'm not a Layman believer - I think he had a flukish season and still didn't shoot a good percentage from 3 - not to mention Portland chose to play him 3.3 minutes a game in the playoffs. Even at MD, his career shooting percent was under 45%. He doesn't do anything real well. I like Delon Wright, but I wouldn't guarantee him the $29 million he got. And $24 million is more than I'd go for Tyus Jones - I see him as a good backup - nothing more. I actually had Keldon Johnson going mid first.

[nate33]

I like the Tyus Jones idea. He certainly would have been better than Ish Smith. Better, younger, and cheaper.

It looks like we all agree that Noah Vonleh and Jake Layman would have been very good, cost effective targets in free agency. And getting one of Sato, Dorell Wright or Tyus Jones would have been a more preferable PG solution than Ish Smith. These were all very realistic possibilities.

In the draft we were all willing to trade down a few spots and I think the end result would have been equivalent to what we ended up with at #9 plus we'd have an extra late pick to work with. With that pick, it looks like Keldon Johnson was a consensus favorite, but that's with the benefit of hindsight. In the thick of things on draft night, it's tough to say exactly what we'd do with two late picks. Dat2U would certainly have drafted Windler.

Agreed with all above... it's really wasn't as difficult as it ended up being.

Not to be a pain, but I'm not a Layman believer - I think he had a flukish season and still didn't shoot a good percentage from 3 - not to mention Portland chose to play him 3.3 minutes a game in the playoffs. Even at MD, his career shooting percent was under 45%. He doesn't do anything real well. I like Delon Wright, but I wouldn't guarantee him the $29 million he got. And $24 million is more than I'd go for Tyus Jones - I see him as a good backup - nothing more. I actually had Keldon Johnson going mid first.

Layman at just $4M a year seems like a pretty good deal though. I agree that it's far from certain he emerges as a starter and his position in the rotation ahead of Troy Brown Jr. is a bit dubious. But Layman looks like a legit rotation player in this league. At 3% of the cap, he is solid, cheap depth who is young enough to improve a bit more.

Whoops! I thought PF got Tyus Jones on a $8M deal over 3 years! You are right. $8M per year seems really steep. Jones is a backup. An above-average backup, perhaps, but a backup nevertheless. We can't afford to pay a backup PG that kind of money unless he can do double duty as our backup SG and thereby play 24-28 minutes a night. (That's why I don't mind paying Wright or Sato that kind of money.)

[Ruzious]

Agreed with all above... it's really wasn't as difficult as it ended up being.

Not to be a pain, but I'm not a Layman believer - I think he had a flukish season and still didn't shoot a good percentage from 3 - not to mention Portland chose to play him 3.3 minutes a game in the playoffs. Even at MD, his career shooting percent was under 45%. He doesn't do anything real well. I like Delon Wright, but I wouldn't guarantee him the $29 million he got. And $24 million is more than I'd go for Tyus Jones - I see him as a good backup - nothing more. I actually had Keldon Johnson going mid first.

Layman at just $4M a year seems like a pretty good deal though. I agree that it's far from certain he emerges as a starter and his position in the rotation ahead of Troy Brown Jr. is a bit dubious. But Layman looks like a legit rotation player in this league. At 3% of the cap, he is solid, cheap depth who is young enough to improve a bit more.

Whoops! I thought PF got Tyus Jones on a $8M deal over 3 years! You are right. $8M per year seems really steep. Jones is a backup. An above-average backup, perhaps, but a backup nevertheless. We can't afford to pay a backup PG that kind of money unless he can do double duty as our backup SG and thereby play 24-28 minutes a night. (That's why I don't mind paying Wright or Sato that kind of money.)

And I figured Layman got more than that - you're right - Layman at that price is ok by me - just as long as we don't peg him as a starter. I've been away vacationing most of the last 10 days without internet access (!!!) and missed out on most of the craziness.

[payitforward]

Ok, so here is Dat's final (I believe).

G Delon Wright ... Troy Brown Jr ... John Wall
G Bradley Beal ... Iman Shumpert ... Jordan McRae
F Jake Layman ... Dylan Windler ... Jermerrio Jones
F Davis Bertans ... Brandon Clarke ... Noah Vonleh
C Thomas Bryant ... Bol Bol ... Moritz Wagner

There are some residual problems (Bonga & Mahinmi unaccounted for & with Ian maybe a tax situation), but lets assume Dat will think up a solution.

We have the 2022 pick we got in the LA deal, because there's no need to spend it to acquire Layman -- in their actual deal they took back the rights to a nobody. We'd give them another nobody: Sanon. But we are lacking the two Chicago R2 picks, as they were used to facilitate the Delon Wright deal.

& here is nate’s final version (with tweaks suggested by Dat)

PG Sato/Brown Jr.
SG Beal/K.Johnson
SF Layman/Shumpert
PF Bertans/Hachimura
C Bryant/Vonleh
End of Bench: Wagner, McRae, Robinson, Mahinmi, Bonga, Wall.

Note that Dat has taught nate his little trick of including extra players! 16 here w/o even including Bonga who does have a guaranteed contract after all! ….

In this scenario, we have the R2 that came in the LA deal, but we didn’t trade Satoransky, so we do not have the pick that came to us from Chicago in his deal.

& last (no doubt also least) mine:

PG Tyus Jones / Robinson / Wall / Bonga
SG Beal / Johnson / Weatherspoon
F Layman / T. Brown Jr / Je. Jones
F Vonleh / Clarke / Wagner
C Bryant / Bol Bol / Mahinmi.

Like nate, I owe something to Dat – the idea of signing Layman. But, as well, I believe I got the idea of targeting Vonleh from nate. So, I owe them both. &, like my good buddies, I too am using the new "what the hell" expanded roster (16in my case) But, I try to move Wagner, assuming I can get a R2 pick for him. Speaking of which, I keep all 3 of the R2 picks Tommy acquired. Move Wagner & it’s 4. The two from Chicago are particularly valuable.

My off-season seems to have had slightly different goals than either Dat’s or nate’s. I’m focusing beyond next year –- beyond John Wall. I’m trying to think 3 years down the road. For that reason, my team is younger. I have 5 guys out of this year’s draft! No one-year deals. I want guys some of whom are meant to become trade assets as they develop. I.e. their deals will be tradable assets.

One reason for taking this tack is that I will be trying to add 3 players out of next year’s draft. These extra assets will facilitate flexibility. My plan takes nowhere near the Luxury Tax; better yet, it should provide with some financial flexibility next year. Flexibility & tradable assets will enable us to acquire a really good veteran next year, if we think he can help shorten the time-frame for this rebuild. I want to do that next year not this year.

I think these are all pretty good off seasons, to tell the truth. & reasonably similar one to another. Each has its advantages/disadvantages.

Anyone else gonna frame something up? Mojo Amok, I loved your idea of T.J. McConnell. & you are the only one who has mentioned Stanley Johnson in this regard.

[payitforward]

Actually, Layman got $11.25m for 3 years. $3.75m per year. He's well worth that. I start him based on last year, but of course time would tell about that. But I have no trouble with him at that price.

My draft trade-down was with Johnson in mind. It's not hindsight in my case, however, because I have no idea what he's doing in SL !! What's he doing?

Tyus Jones turned 23 two months ago. Yet, he's entering his 5th season. He's played more minutes each year & played better each year. His 2018-19 season was outstanding! He had over 10 assists & 2.5 steals for every 1.4 TOs he committed (yes, double checked). At 22 years old. He's a tremendous bargain at $8m/year.

Of course... Layman, Johnson & Jones may all wind up sucking!

[dckingsfan]

I think Nate's, Dat's and PIFs lineups are all a good deal better than what we have...

[Dat2U]

Ok, fair enough. But... come on -- it's fun putting you through the ringer every once in a while!

But, in fact the Blazers didn't get a R2 pick in the deal; they got the rights to a nobody. Plus, they only traded Layman because they are in the tax & need to lower costs. Taking back Howard wouldn't have worked with them.

It's tough being a GM!

Yikes, so the Wizards can't use a trade exception to sign a free agent. They only have the MLE, BAE & vet minimums to offer. You could potentially use Mahinmi or Howard as salary ballast but that would require assets on our part (more for Mahinmi of course).

If they kept Sato then the MLE can be used elsewhere. Acquiring D. Wright would require the MLE so in theory you could double up by keeping Sato.

I thought about Delon AND Sato but the problem with that is we need those assets from the Sato deal to make the Delon deal happen and Delon's market would have possibly changed if Chicago couldn't have gotten Sato.

But I prefer D. Wright to Sato & Layman. I like Layman and at that price he's worth it but I know D. Wright is good and I view him as a potential core piece, I just think Layman may be solid.

So no Layman.

The remaining market is barren: Corey Brewer? Justin Anderson? No.

I trade the 2nd acquired in the LAL deal to Dallas for Ryan Broekhoff.

Also since I'm unable to deal Howard, I decide to hold onto him for the time being and see how he and Bol Bol progress health wise going into training camp. If he looks ok, I deal Wagner to any team that takes him. If not, i cut Howard and keep Wagner.

Lastly, either one of Jones or Bonga is getting cut. I let them fight it out for a roster spot through training camp. I may try to sign the guy that's cut two a 2-way deal if possible.

Training camp roster.

G Wright ... T. Brown Jr ... Wall
G Beal ... Shumpert ... McRae
F Broekhoff ... Windler ... Bonga ... Je. Jones
F Bertans ... Clarke ... Vonleh
C Bryant ... Howard ... Bol ... Wagner ... Mahinmi

Ian Mahinmi and one of either Jones or Bonga are cut before the regular season. Also either Howard or Wagner get cut/moved.

Exhibit 10: S. Ponds & E. Happ.

[Ruzious]

Broekhoff looks too much like a young Ernie Grunfeld. I refuse to acquire him unless he shaves the mustache. If Windler's as good as I think he'll be, he'll eventually be much better than Broekhoff.

[Mojo Amok]

I really wouldn't pencil in the one year salary that Vonleh got and take it as a barometer of what he would settle for on a multiyear contract. The same goes for any of those guys on cheap 1+1 deals with a PO who signed later in free agency as well.

The entire motivation for signing those contracts is to leverage an opportunity for playing time to get a bigger deal next year.

The 6-foot-9 forward signed a one-year deal worth $2 million on Monday. Vonleh joins Jordan Bell, whose one-year deal also has yet to be announced, as the only two true power forwards on the roster after Dario Saric was traded to Phoenix and Taj Gibson left to sign with the Knicks in free agency.

https://www.twincities.com/2019/07/08/noah-vonleh-sees-a-lot-of-opportunity-with-timberwolves/

The opposite is the guys the Knicks signed - they got paid a premium for a single guaranteed year and agreed to team options while playing on a terrible team (they could easily be trade chips of course). They would have agreed to multiyear guaranteed money at a lower per-year dollar figure than what they're getting now (for example, Portis wouldn't have insisted on $64 over four years unless he and his agent went full on crazy eyes).

[dckingsfan]

This is a good thread...