Fake Parity: Who is beating LAL/LAC/MIL?

tayottt · Post #1 » by **tayottt** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:20 pm

Much has been made about the “new parity” in the league this offseason, but I question if this is a myth. Now that the dust has begun to settle I’m looking at the rosters and I only see three real contenders:

The Clippers
The Lakers
The Bucks

I’m not factoring in injury risk or things that are unreasonable to predict. I’m just looking at it from a pure basketball perspective in the playoffs. Outside of those three teams who REALLY has a chance? I’d like to hear some basketball reasoning. Heres how I look at it:

1. Sixers - They are on the bubble as a contender simply because the East doesn’t have much competition for them. Against the best teams, the Sixers’ lack of shooting (especially from Simmons) and lack of a perimeter playmaker/finisher at the end of games is fatal. Defensively they could be historically special, but they are a trade away from legit contention. Honestly, I think they should move on from Simmons and get a more versatile offensive playmaker.

2. Houston - Russ and Harden are a formidable duo, but their skill sets don’t match. In a playoff series the defensive scheme is simple: Never guard Russ outside the paint and send the help off Russ and Tucker. I am definitely intrigued by their small ball lineup with Tucker at the Center (would be the most spacing Russ has ever played with) but against the top tier teams I think they can be schemed for, and conversely they can’t guard Lebron/Kawhi/Giannis/etc.

3. Utah - They have a really good team that makes a lot of sense on both ends. They should win 55+ games, but they just don’t have a superstar. They’ve been able to beat the Thunder who had “two” superstars, but I think a lot of their postseason success is tied to whether or not the opposition can play Gobert off the court. When the opposition has a player who can hit threes out of the PnR easily Utah has no answer. Players like Curry and Harden give them fits and they have NO defensive personnel for the superstar wings (Bron/Kawhi/Giannis) right now. I think they are a tough out, but I can’t conceive of them winning it all.

4. Denver - Stylistically Denver may have the highest offensive floor. No team has been able to stop the Jokic offense. The only question mark is whether guys hit wide open shots. Their issues are on the defensive end where they lack a two-way small forward. They also have difficulty with players who can put pressure on Jokic in PnR. The Nuggets were struggling to contain CJ McCollum in PnR last year. There are far more dangerous tandems to deal with now.

Another scary anti-parity thought is that the Lakers/Clippers/Bucks will be big players in the buyout market. Players like Iggy and Morris could make things even less competitive come playoff time.

kobe808lak · Post #2 » by **kobe808lak** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:22 pm

Nothing is guaranteed. It's not fake parity at all and injuries will happen bringing some of these teams down and elevating others.

teke184 · Post #3 » by **teke184** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:22 pm

Injury is reasonable to predict for the Lakers considering AD and Cousins are injury prone while LeBron is aging.

Tor_Raps · Post #4 » by **Tor_Raps** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:25 pm

PHI >= MIL

HOU/GSW = LAC/LAL >= UTA/DEN

*GS only if Klay comes back early enough to have ample amount of reps before the playoffs

Lawyershawn · Post #5 » by **Lawyershawn** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:25 pm

The disrespect towards Golden State.

Forte IV · Post #6 » by **Forte IV** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:26 pm

I want to say Philly, but I just don't know where their offensive fire power is gonna come from. JJ was such a threat for them and a large part of their offense and now he's gone. Tobias can be that, but they would be so much better with JJ. Maybe they get Korver, but at 38 he won't help as much as they may like.

ChiCitySPORTS#1 · Post #7 » by **ChiCitySPORTS#1** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:26 pm

Philly, Houston, GSW all are legit. Thrown in BKN next year.

Tony Franciosa · Post #8 » by **Tony Franciosa** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:26 pm

If Embiid is 100% and Simmons shows any signs of a jumpshot come playoff time, I love our chances against anyone.

Official · Post #9 » by **Official** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:27 pm

You are correct - nobody is beating the Clippers or Lakers if they are not injured. Not so high on the Bucks.

walk with me · Post #10 » by **walk with me** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:28 pm

It’s not fake because nobody knows....

RaptorsLife · Post #11 » by **RaptorsLife** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:30 pm

I thought the bucks got worse losing bragdon

Sixers
Indiana

Also

Nuggets
Utah
Warriors healthy
Rockets maybe

That’s about it

I think clippers are the favs

tayottt · Post #12 » by **tayottt** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:31 pm

Lawyershawn wrote:The disrespect towards Golden State.

Probably should have listed them beside Denver. It’s just such a huge defense and basketball IQ downgrade. They still could beat 3/4 of the 8 playoff teams in the West if healthy.

tv24lakers · Post #13 » by **tv24lakers** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:33 pm

teke184 wrote:Injury is reasonable to predict for the Lakers considering AD and Cousins are injury prone while LeBron is aging.

Agreed. I think team depth has been undervalued in recent years mainly due to attempts to counter and replicate GSW with a superstar team of their own. The likelihood of player injury will rise through overuse.

Now presuming the Laker FO and coaching carousal factor that appropriately, I suspect Kuzma will offer Lebron and AD some regular season relief.

Joerezz7 · Post #14 » by **Joerezz7** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:34 pm

Lawyershawn wrote:The disrespect towards Golden State.

It’s not disrespect. Without KD they are not better than Utah, Lakers, Clippers and Houston. They don’t have the roster to keep up with those teams. Steph is going to average 30-35 ppg with a bunch of losses. Allen Iverson,Mcgrady,Kobe and even Michael Jordan early in his career put up big scoring nights with a bunch of losses and Curry can’t even be mentioned in the same conversation with those players.
This isn’t the 73 win roster. This is the worse Warriors roster since 2014.
They will battle with the Spurs and Blazers for the 6th 7th and 8th seeds. They not in the same class as the top 4 West teams .

-G- · Post #15 » by **-G-** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:34 pm

I am not buying Milwaukee as unbeatable. Giannis is great, but I do not trust Middleton and especially Bledsoe.

JimmyTheGreek · Post #16 » by **JimmyTheGreek** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:36 pm

MIL shouldn’t be on the list. They’re “fake” championship contenders. Only good during the regular season and they lost Mirotic & Brogdon.

BudenFerry · Post #17 » by **BudenFerry** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:38 pm

Philly has a better shot of making the Finals than the Lakers do.

The High Cyde · Post #18 » by **The High Cyde** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:39 pm

I still see Houston as a contender, and Denver as a dark horse. Houston has the drive and hunger, and Denver has the chemistry.

jc23 · Post #19 » by **jc23** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:41 pm

Those 3 teams are all one injury away from getting knocked out of the first round. Giannis has it easier in the east but it’s a long season and the bucks lost some of their depth.

Joerezz7 · Post #20 » by **Joerezz7** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:47 pm

JimmyTheGreek wrote:MIL shouldn’t be on the list. They’re “fake” championship contenders. Only good during the regular season and they lost Mirotic & Brogdon.

Totally agree. Bucks are trash. If Greek Freak comes back with no jumpshot playing the same way as last year then they won’t be going anywhere. Middleton is a choke artist too. They lost their 2nd best player in Brogdon