What happened to Morey's Analytics?

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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#21 » by clyde21 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:52 am

Cp3 and Harden didnt like each other, and Cp3's contract was impossible to move without having to take back another contract...I don't like the fit either but Morey didn't have a choice...this was a hail mary attempt
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#22 » by MikeM » Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:55 am

There's probably some calculation that shows Westbrook's fast break offense would give them a +5 ORTG or how Westbrook's PPP with shooters at 28 feet is super high or something.

Westbrook has never really played with a competent offensive coach.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#23 » by jason bourne » Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:58 am

TacoLord wrote:New owner don't care about your fancy schmancy analytics. Only number he cares about is the bottom line, and Westbrook sells way better than CP3.


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Winning sells way, way, way better.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#24 » by Middle Child » Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:05 am

Russ will live at the rim

And then shoot mid range jumpers to try and win the game
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#25 » by whatisacenter » Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:08 am

Middle Child wrote:Russ will live at the rim

And then shoot mid range jumpers to try and win the game


how is he going to do that without the ball?
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#26 » by Middle Child » Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:17 am

whatisacenter wrote:
Middle Child wrote:Russ will live at the rim

And then shoot mid range jumpers to try and win the game


how is he going to do that without the ball?


Once Russ gets a board then they might as well just get out his way.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#27 » by pr0wler » Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:40 am

MikeM wrote:There's probably some calculation that shows Westbrook's fast break offense would give them a +5 ORTG or how Westbrook's PPP with shooters at 28 feet is super high or something.

Westbrook has never really played with a competent offensive coach.


Great point actually. Rockets now have a one man fast break show that we didn't have before. The analytics support that style but we didn't really have the personnel to utilize that strategy the way a lot of other teams can. Now we do.

And the floor spacing will be amazing for Westbrook. We've seen many guys in the past have better offensive seasons under the D'antoni system and I wouldn't be surprised if RW is no different.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#28 » by HotTubMike » Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:45 am

At the top of the spread sheet it says, “Acquire Star Players”

The corpse of CP3 wasn’t taking us anywhere.

Might as well roll the dice and Morey will.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#29 » by GusT15 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:26 am

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Spoiler:
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#30 » by FNQ » Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:46 pm

The cognitive dissonance of saying that Morey must be good at analytics, so that if he makes a trade against analytics, that he's now advanced his analytics.. yikes. Mental gymnastics on steroids.

The thing with analytics is that if half-measures never, ever work out. If these numbers work on the lower-middle of the NBA, they will work with the elite of the NBA. The players are the variables, the model (playing in the NBA) is not. Morey is bucking analytics here by dealing one of the higher metric players (CP3 - who was still very high in metrics despite being an awful fit for the Rockets) for one of the more maligned players in analytics - at least in comparison to fan/trade value. Neither is really a good fit with Harden, but ones who are, aren't available, and Morey had to trade CP3 because he and Harden were at odds. But you can't just re-write analytics to pretend that Morey made a smart move here.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#31 » by Richfield » Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:38 pm

Analytics is used subjectively FNQ. The importance in everything in analytics is weighted by human opinion on how much a particular metric matters and how much how much another metric does not.

What's the formula for PER? Win shares? +/-? When you work with these concepts, you weight their importance with your opinion, and how much they matter and when they matter. That's why it's like any other thing that can be used to spin any narrative. You can always add a metric to consider. So yes, you can actually rewrite analytics, it's constantly being rewritten. That's what analytics is. It's using numbers to make a claim. Some claims carry more weight than others. No analytic metric nor particular combination of metrics is a crystal ball.

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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#32 » by dho4ever » Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:56 pm

Chris paul didn't exactly have an efficient or great season last year. This is a great trade of Houston.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#33 » by FNQ » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:08 pm

Richfield wrote:Analytics is used subjectively FNQ. The importance in everything in analytics is weighted by human opinion on how much a particular metric matters and how much how much another metric does not.

What's the formula for PER? Win shares? +/-? When you work with these concepts, you weight their importance with your opinion, and how much they matter and when they matter. That's why it's like any other thing that can be used to spin any narrative. You can always add a metric to consider. So yes, you can actually rewrite analytics, it's constantly being rewritten. That's what analytics is. It's using numbers to make a claim. Some claims carry more weight than others. No analytic metric nor particular combination of metrics is a crystal ball.

The only stat that will tell you who wins the game in the end is on the scoreboard.


Ok, but if you are basically saying that Morey's analytics are more advanced because he made a move that current analytics would advise against, with no basis for this - and in a trade with another GM who favors analytics - that doesn't seem like mental gymnastics to you? Confirmation bias?

It reads more like "I value Westbrook more than this, and I cant be wrong, so Morey's analytics must have become better"

Also...your post greatly simplifies statistics - by design, I'm sure. To not do so would mean you'd have to write an essay. But each analytics-based decision is designed to affect the scoreboard. And while there's no perfect metrics, metrics like RPM in the hands of someone who understands basketball, are effective. Metrics can only measure what is tangible - much like the human eye, but can do so at a much greater level. What they can't measure are the intangibles - mainly, what role a player plays on a team. A guy like Covington, who has led the NBA in RPM @ SF before (over LeBron, Kawhi, Durant, PG13, etc).. would be an utter failure as a #1. A guy like Barnes, who is a failure as a #1, would in theory do better as a #4/5. Metrics cant put that into a numerical value, but they can give you a very quick and accurate overview.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#34 » by alessandrux » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:09 pm

Let's see what strategy they apply with Westbrook.
I am super excited for him, for the first time in his career he might play with 4, at the same time, -able offensive players.

If Russell Westbrook is fully healthy and has room/space inside the paint he is amazing.
Westbrook is also an underrated shooter, he has a decent shot, if the Rockets manage to stabilize that shot he will shoot a (fairly) high percentage.

Like I said, I'm excited and happy for Westbrook.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#35 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:11 pm

Nuntius wrote:Morey is a star hunter who has always gone after stars (sometimes even past their prime). He is the same guy that signed Carmelo. Analytics don't influence his big signings.


Yeah the Melo acquisition really highlights that beyond a certain level Morey doesn't have a great feel for the game. He probably was smart enough to realize that there was a high probability it wouldn't work, but not savvy enough to realize that there was no possibility that it could ever work and that it would do damage immediately.

This also happened on a less prominent scale with Ty Lawson. In theory Lawson was an upgrade at "point guard" over Beverly. In practice, Harden's your true point and what you need next to him is an off-guard whether he is larger or smaller than your actual point.

Morey's always been lucky that some of his missteps haven't blown up worse in his face. I respect the hell out of the work he's done and were I another franchise I'd love to have him run my team, but he has some of the issues analytics guys tend to have.

(For the record, were I Morey, I wouldn't take another "job" on an NBA franchise. I'd want to be the boss of whatever I was doing, and if that meant an NBA franchise, it would mean as the hands-on minority owner.)
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#36 » by Pharmcat » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:13 pm

Analytics are overrated . Boban is not one of the best players ever like PER tells us
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#37 » by FNQ » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:14 pm

Pharmcat wrote:Analytics are overrated . Boban is not one of the best players ever like PER tells us


PER isnt a good analytic measure for overall effectiveness. It's barely considered analytics at this point because it has no regression factors in it - not even linear. Most use ridge regression these days.

Boban ranked 28th last year among Cs in terms of RPM. Which sounds right, given his role and minutes.

But I appreciate you making this point crystal clear: the analytics are never the problem. People who wield them incorrectly are.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#38 » by ForeverTFC » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:21 pm

kingofthecourt67 wrote:When I think of Morey, I think more of star hunting than analytics. Definitely likes putting all his eggs in a couple of baskets for better or worse. Of course analytics are a big part of his MO, but ImO secondary.


I see that you also listen to podcasts
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#39 » by cpower » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:23 pm

he probably only looked at Westbrook's BPM number from 2017
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#40 » by BNM » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:20 pm

Moahst wrote:I bet you Morey's excel spreadsheet said Westbrook > Paul


Or more likely, Morey's superstar said Westbrook > Paul.

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