Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2

[gambitx777]

So Marquese chriss, Trey Lyles and Christian wood are all bigs I'd look into signing on cheep short term deals. We still have guys we can cut or buy out and one or two of these young bigs would be real nice imo

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[payitforward]

I totally agree -- I would have loved Vonleh here. But I'm not sure you're right about the economic motivation. I.e. to equal $7m in 2 years, he'll have to earn $5m next season. Anything more is gravy. & $5m isn't much of a reach if he has a 2d good season in a row.

I'm aware that the purpose of his 1-year deal is the assumption that he can perform well enough to earn a big raise, but $5M is a reach. Sure, it's possible that he could earn more, but it's not likely. Not in a market when bigs are being devalued. He could just as easily disappoint and be worth only a vet minimum contract.

I'm removing all injury risk and guaranteeing him a second year at 250% of what he is willing to earn on Year 1. I think that's an extremely fair offer.

Absolutely! & I'd love to have him. I meant only to indicate how surprising it seems that no one offered him a better deal than the 1-year $2m. Seems weird, given he had a really good season. You seem to agree with my explanation -- that it was kind of Jabari-lite.

Of course, it's also possible that teams simply didn't see the value that made him attractive to you. I don't see why. So, again, my speculation was that, well, maybe he wanted it that way?

[FAH1223]

So Marquese chriss, Trey Lyles and Christian wood are all bigs I'd look into signing on cheep short term deals. We still have guys we can cut or buy out and one or two of these young bigs would be real nice imo

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Spurs used their entire MLE on Marcus Morris. Looks like they are using $5.5M of the MLE for Lyles instead.

So Buford and Pop replace Bertans with Lyles.

[payitforward]

So, where does this off-season stand as of the end of Summer League? Nothing new here -- just summing it up to the moment.

8 guys are gone from the team that ended last season:
Jabari Parker
Trevor Ariza
Dwight Howard
Tomas Satoransky
Bobby Portis
Sam Dekker
Jeff Green
Chasson Randle

(We paid those guys a total of @$51m last year, all but $10m to the first three of them.) As well, 2-way player Devin Robinson is gone.

6 guys are still with us:
John Wall
Bradley Beal
Ian Mahinmi
Troy Brown Jr.
Thomas Bryant
Jordan McRae (actually new to the regular roster: he was a 2-way player until the last day of last season)

We have added 11 players(!) to our roster:
C.J. Miles
Davis Bertans
Ish Smith
Rui Hachimura
Mo Wagner
Isaac Bonga
Isaiah Thomas
Justin Robinson
Tarik Phillip
Jemerrio Jones
Admiral Schofield

The first 7 are fully guaranteed. The next 3 (& also McRae, making 4) players are not fully guaranteed. & Admiral Schofield has not been signed, but I think it is certain that we will sign him. We spent $3m to acquire the guy. If we don't sign him, that will be an up-front fail for Tommy Sheppard. Not going to happen.

We have a total of 17 players -- plus we have also signed Garrison Mathews as a 2-way player. Thus -- failing other changes -- two guys on the list above will not be on the Wizards this year: presumably 2 of the 4 who aren't guaranteed.

The 2 most likely of those would seem to be Tarik Phillip & Jemerrio Jones. McRae is probably the most immediately playable; he's likely to stay. Robinson was just now signed; they must have plans for him. Another possibility would be that they sign Schofield to a 2-way contract, in which case only 1 of the unguaranteed guys would have to go.

There are 2 possible ways this could change:

1. We've applied for an exception b/c of Wall's injury. If we get it & sign another player, 3 guys will have to go instead of 2.

2. We may trade someone for a pick, probably a R2 pick (ideally it would be Mo Wagner, whom so many of you wanted to draft in R1 a mere 13 months ago), in which case only 1 guy would have to go.

If Phillip & Jones go, we are at 15:

PG - Smith / IT / Robinson / Bonga / Wall (not playing)
SG - Beal / McRae
SF - Miles / Brown / Schofield
PF - Hachimura / Bertans / Wagner
C - Bryant / Mahinmi

Arrange the starters at 3 & 4 however you want, that is still one weird-looking team! The only conclusion I can draw is that there is a change coming. But... where is it coming from?

[Dat2U]

PG Smith ... Thomas ... Robinson ... Wall
SG Beal ... McRae
SF Brown Jr ... Miles ... Bonga
PF Bertans ... Hachimura ... Schofield
CE Bryant ... Wagner ... Mahinmi

The PG situation is ugly. Odds are IT doesn't rekindle some magic from the 2016-17 season and he's torched on D every time he plays.

C.J. Miles wasn't playable last season. I think Brown has to start at SF. Bonga/Schofield may get more run than anticipated due to the lack of options on the wing.

Their depending on Bryant for alot. Basically hes anchoring the front court. He's the leader by default. Wagner is going to be really bad behind him. Maybe Mahinmi gets more minutes than expected or they sign someone else.

The defense is just going to be so bad I dunno if 25 wins is optimistic prediction.

[montestewart]

I guess it depends on how much, but if Justin Robinson has a partially guaranteed contract and is cut, that seems like some measure of fail as well.

I guess that's good that the choices don't seem obvious.

[payitforward]

I guess it depends on how much, but if Justin Robinson has a partially guaranteed contract and is cut, that seems like some measure of fail as well.

I guess that's good that the choices don't seem obvious.

I agree, sure. But, at least Tommy didn't spend $3m for the chance to pick him!

Now... I'm not predicting failure for either of them, & even if both of them do -- at least Tommy took a swing! At least we didn't have some bad veteran contract to get rid of & use a R2 pick that way!

[payitforward]

PG Smith ... Thomas ... Robinson ... Wall
SG Beal ... McRae
SF Brown Jr ... Miles ... Bonga
PF Bertans ... Hachimura ... Schofield
CE Bryant ... Wagner ... Mahinmi

The PG situation is ugly. Odds are IT doesn't rekindle some magic from the 2016-17 season and he's torched on D every time he plays.

C.J. Miles wasn't playable last season. I think Brown has to start at SF. Bonga/Schofield may get more run than anticipated due to the lack of options on the wing.

Their depending on Bryant for alot. Basically hes anchoring the front court. He's the leader by default. Wagner is going to be really bad behind him. Maybe Mahinmi gets more minutes than expected or they sign someone else.

The defense is just going to be so bad I dunno if 25 wins is optimistic prediction.

I definitely think Mahinmi will play a lot behind Bryant if this is our roster.

25 wins seems like a good number. A little optimistic. So very many things have to happen, such optimistic things, to do better than that, it's hard for me to imagine it.

1. IT has to get back to a high level of play. Not like 3 years ago, but still really good
2. Miles has to get back to his level of play in 2016-17 as well.
3. Brown has to take a nice jump (feeling some confidence in this at least)
4. McRae has to be capable of sustaining meh journeyman play for 1000-1400 minutes, something he's never done.
5. Bonga has to be a player
6. Hachimura has to be one of the best rookies in the league & play at least 1500 minutes
7. Bryant has to play at last year's level at least or better if possible.
8. Mahinmi has to remember how to play basketball.

If all those things happen, & we don't play Mo Wagner (whom so many of you wanted to take in R1 only 13 months ago -- which you see no reason to mention now) or better yet he's traded...

...we can have a season as good as last year's, maybe better -- maybe get to 35 wins.

[montestewart]

I guess it depends on how much, but if Justin Robinson has a partially guaranteed contract and is cut, that seems like some measure of fail as well.

I guess that's good that the choices don't seem obvious.

I agree, sure. But, at least Tommy didn't spend $3m for the chance to pick him!

Now... I'm not predicting failure for either of them, & even if both of them do -- at least Tommy took a swing! At least we didn't have some bad veteran contract to get rid of & use a R2 pick that way!

That came off as more negative than intended. I like what Jones has shown, but the PG situation and cost of Schofield seem to say Jones gets cut.

[payitforward]

"Jones" -- ? I assume you mean Justin Robinson. I don't think he'll get cut. As long as we are staying under the tax, I think he'll be guaranteed for this season. Probably spend some chunk of it w/ the Go Gos. But get his rookie year shot at development anyway.

But... I don't think Jemerrio Jones will make the roster -- I think he should but won't. If no one else offers him a deal, we may sign him as a 2-way player. My reasoning is that he got very little PT in SL. Then, when he got @ 1 rebound per minute, his PT didn't go up. To me that means they've either decided they love him (unlikely) or they don't "see" him at all, because he does unconventional things.

I could be wrong of course -- on both counts.

[montestewart]

"Jones" -- ? I assume you mean Justin Robinson. I don't think he'll get cut. As long as we are staying under the tax, I think he'll be guaranteed for this season. Probably spend some chunk of it w/ the Go Gos. But get his rookie year shot at development anyway.

But... I don't think Jemerrio Jones will make the roster -- I think he should but won't. If no one else offers him a deal, we may sign him as a 2-way player. My reasoning is that he got very little PT in SL. Then, when he got @ 1 rebound per minute, his PT didn't go up. To me that means they've either decided they love him (unlikely) or they don't "see" him at all, because he does unconventional things.

I could be wrong of course -- on both counts.

No, I meant the PG situation says they should hang on to Robinson for depth and the future beyond IT and Ish Smith, so Jones gets cut.

Jones rebounded like that in college too. He should find a place somewhere eventually.

[Illmatic12]

Tommy Sheppard definitely likes J Jones - he mentioned that he’s a fellow NMSU alum

Wiz can cut Jones and offer him a spot on the Go-Go for the remainder of the season. Not as an official 2-way contract (I think we already used up those slots) but basically just to say “hey , we like you and you can stick around in our program to possibly get an opportunity in the future”

If we want to develop the Go-Go into more of a farm system for the team I think we need to make creative moves like that to make sure we always have interesting prospects on the roster.

[payitforward]

Right now, I can see 12 guaranteed salaries for $123,729,803 -- Beal, Wall, Mahinmi, Miles, Bryant, Bertans, Smith, Rui, Troy, Wagner, IT, & Bonga. Assume McRae is picked up. That takes us to 13 guys at $125,375,160.

Robinson is also signed, but we don't know for how much or how much of it is guaranteed. Schofield will be signed, surely, but again we don't know the terms. Lets say the two of them cost us $1.9m this year. That leaves us @$5.3m under the luxury tax w/ 15 guys.

What could conceivably happen to alter that situation?

1. We could get the extra exception we've applied for based on Wall's injury. In that case, we need a roster spot, so either

a) something would change for one of McRae, Robinson or Schofield. Maybe one of them becomes a 2-way player? Assume it's one of Robinson or Schofield. In that case, we are now @$6.2 under the tax line, & we have the chance to sign someone for the spot that's opened up, or...

b) alternatively, we make a trade in which we give one more player than we take in.

2. We trade Wagner for a R2 pick? We deal Mahinmi somehow? Some less likely & unpredictable thing happens.

[payitforward]

Tommy Sheppard definitely likes J Jones - he mentioned that he’s a fellow NMSU alum

Wiz can cut Jones and offer him a spot on the Go-Go for the remainder of the season. Not as an official 2-way contract (I think we already used up those slots) but basically just to say “hey , we like you and you can stick around in our program to possibly get an opportunity in the future”

If we want to develop the Go-Go into more of a farm system for the team I think we need to make creative moves like that to make sure we always have interesting prospects on the roster.

To my knowledge we have only signed one guy -- Matthews -- to a 2-way contract, so that is a possibility for Jones.

[Illmatic12]

Tommy Sheppard definitely likes J Jones - he mentioned that he’s a fellow NMSU alum

Wiz can cut Jones and offer him a spot on the Go-Go for the remainder of the season. Not as an official 2-way contract (I think we already used up those slots) but basically just to say “hey , we like you and you can stick around in our program to possibly get an opportunity in the future”

If we want to develop the Go-Go into more of a farm system for the team I think we need to make creative moves like that to make sure we always have interesting prospects on the roster.

To my knowledge we have only signed one guy -- Matthews -- to a 2-way contract, so that is a possibility for Jones.

What about the Phillip dude ?
But yeah if they have a free slot then definitely prioritize a 2-way for Jones. If David Adkins or whoever can fix his shooting mechanics while with the Go-Go, he’s a 10yr pro

[FAH1223]

PG Smith ... Thomas ... Robinson ... Wall
SG Beal ... McRae
SF Brown Jr ... Miles ... Bonga
PF Bertans ... Hachimura ... Schofield
CE Bryant ... Wagner ... Mahinmi

The PG situation is ugly. Odds are IT doesn't rekindle some magic from the 2016-17 season and he's torched on D every time he plays.

C.J. Miles wasn't playable last season. I think Brown has to start at SF. Bonga/Schofield may get more run than anticipated due to the lack of options on the wing.

Their depending on Bryant for alot. Basically hes anchoring the front court. He's the leader by default. Wagner is going to be really bad behind him. Maybe Mahinmi gets more minutes than expected or they sign someone else.

The defense is just going to be so bad I dunno if 25 wins is optimistic prediction.

I definitely think Mahinmi will play a lot behind Bryant if this is our roster.

25 wins seems like a good number. A little optimistic. So very many things have to happen, such optimistic things, to do better than that, it's hard for me to imagine it.

1. IT has to get back to a high level of play. Not like 3 years ago, but still really good
2. Miles has to get back to his level of play in 2016-17 as well.
3. Brown has to take a nice jump (feeling some confidence in this at least)
4. McRae has to be capable of sustaining meh journeyman play for 1000-1400 minutes, something he's never done.
5. Bonga has to be a player
6. Hachimura has to be one of the best rookies in the league & play at least 1500 minutes
7. Bryant has to play at last year's level at least or better if possible.
8. Mahinmi has to remember how to play basketball.

If all those things happen, & we don't play Mo Wagner (whom so many of you wanted to take in R1 only 13 months ago -- which you see no reason to mention now) or better yet he's traded...

...we can have a season as good as last year's, maybe better -- maybe get to 35 wins.

Which roster is worse? The one we have right now or the one that opened 2011-12? (Lockout Season)

Wall/Mack
Young/Jordan Crawford
Singleton/Rashard Lewis
Blatche/Booker
McGee/Vesely

[queridiculo]

Which roster is worse? The one we have right now or the one that opened 2011-12?

Wall/Mack
Young/Jordan Crawford
Singleton/Rashard Lewis
Blatche/Booker
McGee/Vesely

2011, not even close.

[gambitx777]

That team had two NBA champions on it pal ease up there !

Which roster is worse? The one we have right now or the one that opened 2011-12?

Wall/Mack
Young/Jordan Crawford
Singleton/Rashard Lewis
Blatche/Booker
McGee/Vesely

2011, not even close.

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[Dat2U]

Who knew Javale McGee was a championship caliber center?

[nate33]

PG Smith ... Thomas ... Robinson ... Wall
SG Beal ... McRae
SF Brown Jr ... Miles ... Bonga
PF Bertans ... Hachimura ... Schofield
CE Bryant ... Wagner ... Mahinmi

The PG situation is ugly. Odds are IT doesn't rekindle some magic from the 2016-17 season and he's torched on D every time he plays.

C.J. Miles wasn't playable last season. I think Brown has to start at SF. Bonga/Schofield may get more run than anticipated due to the lack of options on the wing.

Their depending on Bryant for alot. Basically hes anchoring the front court. He's the leader by default. Wagner is going to be really bad behind him. Maybe Mahinmi gets more minutes than expected or they sign someone else.

The defense is just going to be so bad I dunno if 25 wins is optimistic prediction.

I definitely think Mahinmi will play a lot behind Bryant if this is our roster.

25 wins seems like a good number. A little optimistic. So very many things have to happen, such optimistic things, to do better than that, it's hard for me to imagine it.

1. IT has to get back to a high level of play. Not like 3 years ago, but still really good
2. Miles has to get back to his level of play in 2016-17 as well.
3. Brown has to take a nice jump (feeling some confidence in this at least)
4. McRae has to be capable of sustaining meh journeyman play for 1000-1400 minutes, something he's never done.
5. Bonga has to be a player
6. Hachimura has to be one of the best rookies in the league & play at least 1500 minutes
7. Bryant has to play at last year's level at least or better if possible.
8. Mahinmi has to remember how to play basketball.

If all those things happen, & we don't play Mo Wagner (whom so many of you wanted to take in R1 only 13 months ago -- which you see no reason to mention now) or better yet he's traded...

...we can have a season as good as last year's, maybe better -- maybe get to 35 wins.

I'd say 25 wins is a pretty good estimate. We are definitely better than rosters the Knicks and Cavs wheeled out last year (winning 17 and 19 games respectively). This year, the Knicks, Cavs and Hornets figure to be worse than us, and Chicago, Atlanta and Phoenix aren't much better. It's pretty hard to beat out 4 teams and not get to at least 23 or 24 wins.

Compare this team to last year. We have Bertans instead of Otto/Portis which is a modest downgrade (better than Portis, worse than Otto). And we have Hachimura instead of Morris/Parker, which may be a downgrade, but maybe not. Ish replaces Sato which is a significant downgrade. On the other hand, Brown replaces Ariza which might be a small upgrade. And this year's Bryant will replace last year's Bryant/Howard which is an upgrade. I don't expect Beal to be any better, but he might be. Last year's team won 32. Looking at those comparisons, are we more than 4 or 5 games worse?

I think we can get to 30 wins if a few things break right. Primarily, we need Bryant to play slightly better than last year, but for 33 minutes a night, and we need one of Brown or Hachimura to be an average starter. And Beal can't get hurt.