Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins

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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#21 » by rugbyrugger23 » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:35 pm

rugbyrugger23 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:I don't understand it from the Wizards perspective. Just seems like were swapping contracts without a specific goal in mind.

I said why in OP. But to expand...

Wiggins gets a fresh start on new team in new situation. Can the 24yo fit well with Beal and become his Robin? Adams is 25yo center who can also gets a fresh start (1st season without Westbrook). Can he prove to be a core member with Beal and Wiggins?

Wizards also get more cap flexibility. Being Wiggins contract is 10ish million per year less than Wall contract.

Wizards would be a consolidation trade from being a real contender. They would have expiring contract(s) + Hachimura + TBJ + Wagner + FFRP(s) to build a very nice package for a star player to join their core (if new core proving to gel and be successful). Who does such a package fetch at trade deadline?


To answer my own question, I think A. Gordon would be a perfect target. Miles or Bertans expiring + Hachimura + TBJ plus 1 or 2 FFRP would get Gordon from Magic (assuming they are struggling and are sellers themselves).

C: Adams
F: Gordon
F: Wiggins
G: Beal
G: Dragic

Other than Dragic, that is a hell of a core team for Wizards. I think Beal is the oldest at 26.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#22 » by BBallFreak » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:44 pm

Karmaloop wrote:
MoneyTalks41890 wrote:This is what I'm hoping for, but we will see. I could see the Heat standing firm in the short term, as the longer CP is with the Thunder the more potential issues he could create, but I do think Miami needs to add around Butler if they want to be a top East team, and I don't think they have many options beyond CP for that unless they put all their youth in a trade. Butler is pretty old, waiting isn't the best idea. And Beal isn't available nor could MIA meet the price if he was.


Miami standing pat doesn't do a thing for them IMO. They're a middle of the pack Eastern Conference team that probably tops out in the 2nd round depending on the first round matchups. Jimmy Butler is good, but he's not great. They need to capitalize on the short window with Jimmy Butler and the parity in the NBA.

On an unrelated note, who has to add what to a John Wall/Chris Paul swap?
Right, I agree, but Chris Paul doesn't move the needle if he misses another 24 games, isn't available for the playoffs, and continues to decline, while alternating the other players on Miami's roster, and getting paid $44 million at 37.

Miami should make moves, I agree, bit they can't make stupid ones. This would be a stupid move. I'm wholeheartedly against answering Chris Paul at this point, but if he comes out needs to be attached to some value.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#23 » by Karmaloop » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:47 pm

BBallFreak wrote:Right, I agree, but Chris Paul doesn't move the needle if he misses another 24 games, isn't available for the playoffs, and continues to decline, while alternating the other players on Miami's roster, and getting paid $44 million at 37.

Miami should make moves, I agree, bit they can't make stupid ones. This would be a stupid move. I'm wholeheartedly against answering Chris Paul at this point, but if he comes out needs to be attached to some value.


I'm not sure what moves Miami can possibly make. Look at their roster sans Jimmy Butler. They can't effectively trade their FRP until 2025 at the earliest, their only real notable young players are Herro and Adebayo, and they have roughly $30M in expiring contracts with Goran Dragic and Meyers Leonard. Legitimately asking, what do you think is the best player(s) that the Heat can get with that kind of package?
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#24 » by MoneyTalks41890 » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:48 pm

Karmaloop wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:Right, I agree, but Chris Paul doesn't move the needle if he misses another 24 games, isn't available for the playoffs, and continues to decline, while alternating the other players on Miami's roster, and getting paid $44 million at 37.

Miami should make moves, I agree, bit they can't make stupid ones. This would be a stupid move. I'm wholeheartedly against answering Chris Paul at this point, but if he comes out needs to be attached to some value.


I'm not sure what moves Miami can possibly make. Look at their roster sans Jimmy Butler. They can't effectively trade their FRP until 2025 at the earliest, their only real notable young players are Herro and Adebayo, and they have roughly $30M in expiring contracts with Goran Dragic and Meyers Leonard. Legitimately asking, what do you think is the best player(s) that the Heat can get with that kind of package?


They also can't trade their 2025 pick without altering the protections to OKC. It's 2023-2025 lotto prot and unp in 2026.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#25 » by Dat2U » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:49 pm

rugbyrugger23 wrote:
rugbyrugger23 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:I don't understand it from the Wizards perspective. Just seems like were swapping contracts without a specific goal in mind.

I said why in OP. But to expand...

Wiggins gets a fresh start on new team in new situation. Can the 24yo fit well with Beal and become his Robin? Adams is 25yo center who can also gets a fresh start (1st season without Westbrook). Can he prove to be a core member with Beal and Wiggins?

Wizards also get more cap flexibility. Being Wiggins contract is 10ish million per year less than Wall contract.

Wizards would be a consolidation trade from being a real contender. They would have expiring contract(s) + Hachimura + TBJ + Wagner + FFRP(s) to build a very nice package for a star player to join their core (if new core proving to gel and be successful). Who does such a package fetch at trade deadline?


To answer my own question, I think A. Gordon would be a perfect target. Miles or Bertans expiring + Hachimura + TBJ plus 1 or 2 FFRP would get Gordon from Magic (assuming they are struggling and are sellers themselves).

C: Adams
F: Gordon
F: Wiggins
G: Beal
G: Dragic

Other than Dragic, that is a hell of a core team for Wizards. I think Beal is the oldest at 26.


It doesn't work.

You have the Wizards taking on too much salary. This puts them in the lux tax.

They also would reject any idea of a Wiggins for Wall swap. Wiz seem intent on letting Wall recover and play it out. I also dont see any scenario where Wiggins is a core member of a successful team. He's only gotten progressively worse since his extension. No one wants that. Everyone can keep trying to dump him to DC or anywhere else, but no one wants a known slacker making his salary on their roster.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#26 » by BBallFreak » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:49 pm

Karmaloop wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:Miami needs picks to do this deal, and not second rounders, either. We need our two returned to us.


Not sure what leverage Miami has to justify that argument. They take an extra year of salary with Chris Paul for the 2021/22 season, since he won't decline his PO. Meanwhile, James Johnson and Dion Waiters will make ~$28.7M in 2020/21, while CP3 makes $41.4M. The problem is the Heat can't effectively trade their FRP until 2025 at the earliest, so Dragic's expiring contract really only has value if they're taking on long-term salary. Given they gave Jimmy Butler a sizeable contract, they seem less likely to go into asset collecting mode. This smells like the Rockets/Westbrook situation.
Leverage;

First, from all accounts, we're not that interested.

Second, no one else seems to be as interested as we are.

Third, and this one is going to be a wild stretch so just go with me on this one, we don't have to acquire him. We could save our assets for the next star player that becomes disgruntled.

Acquiring Chris Paul locks us into that duo for the next three years and maybe gets is to the semifinals, once. It makes a hell of a lot more sense to wait for a player who gives us a higher ceiling for a longer period of time.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#27 » by Karmaloop » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:53 pm

BBallFreak wrote:Leverage;

First, from all accounts, we're not that interested.

Second, no one else seems to be as interested as we are.

Third, and this one is going to be a wild stretch so just go with me on this one, we don't have to acquire him. We could save our assets for the next star player that becomes disgruntled.

Acquiring Chris Paul locks us into that duo for the next three years and maybe gets is to the semifinals, once. It makes a hell of a lot more sense to wait for a player who gives us a higher ceiling for a longer period of time.


What assets? They at best can trade their FRP in 2025, you lack any noteworthy young players, and your best offer is cap flexibility. Miami is a second round at best team in the East as is. You have an "older" star as your franchise player, and holding off for a few years isn't going to change the fact that he's on the wrong side of 30.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#28 » by Kizz Fastfists » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:57 pm

Karmaloop wrote:The problem is the Heat can't effectively trade their FRP until 2025 at the earliest.


Actually, 2028. Their 2021 is outright owned by OKC. Their 2023 is lottery protected and rolls over to 2024, lottery protected, then 2025, lottery protected, then 2026 unprotected. So until the 2028 first round picks unlock Miami can't trade a first unless they remove protections on their 2023 pick to OKC. Then they could trade their 2025.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#29 » by Karmaloop » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:02 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:Actually, 2028. Their 2021 is outright owned by OKC. Their 2023 is lottery protected and rolls over to 2024, lottery protected, then 2025, lottery protected, then 2026 unprotected. So until the 2028 first round picks unlock Miami can't trade a first unless they remove protections on their 2023 pick to OKC. Then they could trade their 2025.


I believe they can trade their FRP in 2025, so long as it has the stipulation of conveying 2 years after their last pick conveys to OKC.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#30 » by BBallFreak » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:02 pm

Karmaloop wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:Leverage;

First, from all accounts, we're not that interested.

Second, no one else seems to be as interested as we are.

Third, and this one is going to be a wild stretch so just go with me on this one, we don't have to acquire him. We could save our assets for the next star player that becomes disgruntled.

Acquiring Chris Paul locks us into that duo for the next three years and maybe gets is to the semifinals, once. It makes a hell of a lot more sense to wait for a player who gives us a higher ceiling for a longer period of time.


What assets? They at best can trade their FRP in 2025, you lack any noteworthy young players, and your best offer is cap flexibility. Miami is a second round at best team in the East as is. You have an "older" star as your franchise player, and holding off for a few years isn't going to change the fact that he's on the wrong side of 30.
Bam, Herro, Okpala, and Winslow ate definitely assets no matter how often you try and deny it.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#31 » by Kizz Fastfists » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:04 pm

Karmaloop wrote:On an unrelated note, who has to add what to a John Wall/Chris Paul swap?


Wizards have to add a few picks/prospects. I don't think Washington would be willing to add enough over waiting it out a year and hope he comes back decent. I'm not sure adding CP3 to Beal does anything given the age gap. If Beal were 30 that would be a different conversation, but a CP3/Beal pairing would be their best in year 1 and drop off from there due to CP3's age while Beal is hitting his prime. They need to hope Wall can come back late in the year and show he is recovered then try to move him for a nice complementary piece for Beal. Yes, I'm assuming it would be Wall and assets for a solid player to put next to Beal.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#32 » by MoneyTalks41890 » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:06 pm

Karmaloop wrote:
Kizz Fastfists wrote:Actually, 2028. Their 2021 is outright owned by OKC. Their 2023 is lottery protected and rolls over to 2024, lottery protected, then 2025, lottery protected, then 2026 unprotected. So until the 2028 first round picks unlock Miami can't trade a first unless they remove protections on their 2023 pick to OKC. Then they could trade their 2025.


I believe they can trade their FRP in 2025, so long as it has the stipulation of conveying 2 years after their last pick conveys to OKC.


You can only trade 9 years out I think (maybe it's 7?), so this might still work under that. Someone can correct me but I don't think you can trade a first that could push past that, even if you put those stips on it.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#33 » by MoneyTalks41890 » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:06 pm

BBallFreak wrote:
Karmaloop wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:Leverage;

First, from all accounts, we're not that interested.

Second, no one else seems to be as interested as we are.

Third, and this one is going to be a wild stretch so just go with me on this one, we don't have to acquire him. We could save our assets for the next star player that becomes disgruntled.

Acquiring Chris Paul locks us into that duo for the next three years and maybe gets is to the semifinals, once. It makes a hell of a lot more sense to wait for a player who gives us a higher ceiling for a longer period of time.


What assets? They at best can trade their FRP in 2025, you lack any noteworthy young players, and your best offer is cap flexibility. Miami is a second round at best team in the East as is. You have an "older" star as your franchise player, and holding off for a few years isn't going to change the fact that he's on the wrong side of 30.
Bam, Herro, Okpala, and Winslow ate definitely assets no matter how often you try and deny it.


This is correct, and we can have a more productive conversation if everyone would acknowledge this.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#34 » by rugbyrugger23 » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:14 pm

BBallFreak wrote:
Karmaloop wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:Miami needs picks to do this deal, and not second rounders, either. We need our two returned to us.


Not sure what leverage Miami has to justify that argument. They take an extra year of salary with Chris Paul for the 2021/22 season, since he won't decline his PO. Meanwhile, James Johnson and Dion Waiters will make ~$28.7M in 2020/21, while CP3 makes $41.4M. The problem is the Heat can't effectively trade their FRP until 2025 at the earliest, so Dragic's expiring contract really only has value if they're taking on long-term salary. Given they gave Jimmy Butler a sizeable contract, they seem less likely to go into asset collecting mode. This smells like the Rockets/Westbrook situation.
Leverage;

First, from all accounts, we're not that interested.

Second, no one else seems to be as interested as we are.

Third, and this one is going to be a wild stretch so just go with me on this one, we don't have to acquire him. We could save our assets for the next star player that becomes disgruntled.

Acquiring Chris Paul locks us into that duo for the next three years and maybe gets is to the semifinals, once. It makes a hell of a lot more sense to wait for a player who gives us a higher ceiling for a longer period of time.

I don't think it is a lock Paul opts into his 3rd year PO. In order of least to most likely scenarios for Paul (if traded):
1. Retires after 2 years.
2. Declines PO to go ring chase else where. Leaves $ on table depending on what he can FA sign for.
3. Decline and Re-Sign where traded to (this scenario Miami). Riley gives Paul the Horford deal -- meaning Paul declines and he gets 3-4 more years at less per year. Gives Paul more money spread out and gives Riley more cap flexibility to build Paul a Eastern conference championship level squad.

So with that said, in this scenario, Riley is trading 2 (plus PO) years of Paul for 2 years for Waiters and JJ.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#35 » by Karmaloop » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:22 pm

BBallFreak wrote:Bam, Herro, Okpala, and Winslow ate definitely assets no matter how often you try and deny it.


I said "noteworthy" as in guys you're looking to headline a package. Guys like Bam and Herro aren't what I'd call headliners. Same thing with KZ Okpala. They're guys you'd take a chance on, but I don't think you're going to find teams tripping over themselves to land those 3. Winslow at $13M/year is probably a fair deal, but I'm not sure you're going to find teams giving up significant assets for him.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#36 » by Karmaloop » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:23 pm

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:You can only trade 9 years out I think (maybe it's 7?), so this might still work under that. Someone can correct me but I don't think you can trade a first that could push past that, even if you put those stips on it.


I believe that's the case. You could make the stipulation that if it doesn't convey after so many years, it turns into a pair of SRPs or the obligation goes away.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#37 » by Karmaloop » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:26 pm

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:This is correct, and we can have a more productive conversation if everyone would acknowledge this.


I mean, are we going to loosely use the term asset in this case? If we're going to paint a very broad stroke as to what an asset is, then the NBA is flush with assets. I don't see Bam or Herro as notable young guys who are going to be a centerpiece of a deal. They're good players, don't get me wrong but in terms of pushing the needle I don't see that happening.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#38 » by BBallFreak » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:26 pm

Karmaloop wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:Bam, Herro, Okpala, and Winslow ate definitely assets no matter how often you try and deny it.


I said "noteworthy" as in guys you're looking to headline a package. Guys like Bam and Herro aren't what I'd call headliners. Same thing with KZ Okpala. They're guys you'd take a chance on, but I don't think you're going to find teams tripping over themselves to land those 3. Winslow at $13M/year is probably a fair deal, but I'm not sure you're going to find teams giving up significant assets for him.
You're welcome to your opinion. I obviously feel you have the wrong idea. A team could do a hell of a lot worse than talking a couple of these guys, plus cap flexibility, for a disgruntled star.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#39 » by BBallFreak » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:31 pm

rugbyrugger23 wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:
Karmaloop wrote:
Not sure what leverage Miami has to justify that argument. They take an extra year of salary with Chris Paul for the 2021/22 season, since he won't decline his PO. Meanwhile, James Johnson and Dion Waiters will make ~$28.7M in 2020/21, while CP3 makes $41.4M. The problem is the Heat can't effectively trade their FRP until 2025 at the earliest, so Dragic's expiring contract really only has value if they're taking on long-term salary. Given they gave Jimmy Butler a sizeable contract, they seem less likely to go into asset collecting mode. This smells like the Rockets/Westbrook situation.
Leverage;

First, from all accounts, we're not that interested.

Second, no one else seems to be as interested as we are.

Third, and this one is going to be a wild stretch so just go with me on this one, we don't have to acquire him. We could save our assets for the next star player that becomes disgruntled.

Acquiring Chris Paul locks us into that duo for the next three years and maybe gets is to the semifinals, once. It makes a hell of a lot more sense to wait for a player who gives us a higher ceiling for a longer period of time.

I don't think it is a lock Paul opts into his 3rd year PO. In order of least to most likely scenarios for Paul (if traded):
1. Retires after 2 years.
2. Declines PO to go ring chase else where. Leaves $ on table depending on what he can FA sign for.
3. Decline and Re-Sign where traded to (this scenario Miami). Riley gives Paul the Horford deal -- meaning Paul declines and he gets 3-4 more years at less per year. Gives Paul more money spread out and gives Riley more cap flexibility to build Paul a Eastern conference championship level squad.

So with that said, in this scenario, Riley is trading 2 (plus PO) years of Paul for 2 years for Waiters and JJ.
Unless he agrees to wave it beforehand, and for the record he would be a fool to do that, I see no reason to give them a discount.
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Re: Crazy 4 Teamer Where Everyone Wins 

Post#40 » by Karmaloop » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:33 pm

BBallFreak wrote:You're welcome to your opinion. I obviously feel you have the wrong idea. A team could do a hell of a lot worse than talking a couple of these guys, plus cap flexibility, for a disgruntled star.


The problem is the last few disgruntled stars (i.e. Anthony Davis, Paul George, etc.) all brought back players with SIGNIFICANTLY more production. In the Anthony Davis trade, the Pelicans got Brandon Ingram (18/5/3) and Lonzo Ball (10/5/5). In the most recent Paul George trade, the Thunder got SGA (11/3/3) and Gallinari (20/6/3). In the previous Kawhi Leonard deal, the Spurs got DeRozan (23/4/5). In the two most recent disgruntled stars, the Lakers and Clippers gave up a COMBINED 8 FRPs and 3 pick swaps. Miami can't even trade a FRP until 2025 at the very earliest. A package of Dragic/Leoanrd and your young players and a very distant FRP doesn't get you a disgruntled star IMO. It gets you that second tier star (i.e. DeMar DeRozan, Mike Conley, etc.) IMO.

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