nate33 wrote:SO_MONEY wrote:nate33 wrote:I think that's an excellent way at looking at it.
The one wrinkle is that Wall won't play this year and 80% of his salary will be paid by insurance.
If you ignore this year and make this same calculation next summer, Wall will be paid $128M for $51M of production, or a negative $77M. Wiggins will be paid $94M for $30M of production, or negative $64M. Their "values" will be much closer in this calculation.
And finally, we can obviously quibble at the assigned valuations. You say Wall is "worth" $17M a year and Wiggins is "worth" $10M, for a delta of $7M. If the delta between their two respective valuations rises from your subjective $7M estimate to someone else's subjective estimate $11.5M, then Wall becomes worth more than Wiggins.
It is nice to see a reasonable argument from a Mod on this board that doesn't resort to calling things silly or making backhanded insults, given their ability to operate somewhat in impunity. Koudos good sir! I will offer my minor constrictive criticism in that the bold/underlined is only for on court value, not trade value. That, on court value doesn't always equal trade value, especially when we are talking about contracts that are negative. Because there is a salary cap you need to factor in both value based on production and financial ramifications or lost opportunity due to the overall obligation. This is where I see valuations often go wrong.
We are actually talking about trade value. Wall is unquestionably worth more than Wiggins in on the court value assuming he gets back to 80-90% of his pre-injury form.
Oh it seemed like you were only talking production based value. I don't disagree that Wall (hopefully) is more valuable on the court. Super MAX contracts are awful though, nowhere near as prohibitive as Wiggins when it comes to team building. What I am saying is you have to count Wall's on court value being equal to Wall and what he and his contract allows you to get in addition and What Wiggins' on court value is and what he and his contract allows you to get in addition. This may very by teams, obviously, but fewer teams are in a position to take super MAX money back and hurt their future than are. This factors into trade value if not from something as simple as supply and demand.