Celtics General Offseason Thread Pt 11: Kanter believe you thought of former player

[Captain_Caveman]

.

[Captain_Caveman]

I disagree. Despite your multiple attempts to duck doing so, I think you should explain why you're denigrating his contributions of last season.

That's definitely not what is happening here. I'm a big Marcus here guy since forever ago. What I am saying here is that (a) Marcus been doing it for years now, (b) that a bunch of stat-biased people here hated on him and his supporters super, super hard for multiple seasons, (c) the truth came out in the wash on that, (d) those same folks are trying to not only duck that L they clearly earned by pointing to scoring efficiency stats that are insignificant relative to his scoring usage, and that (e) despite being asked to do too much the season before last due to us missing two All-Stars, he actually had a significantly bigger contribution to a a team that was significantly more successful.

Tell me what part of that you are confused about, and I will be happy to educate you.

Couldn't shoot, now he can, where's the issue? Saying that he couldn't shoot and he should have taken less, has nothing to do with what else he brings. I wish everybody would just take this supposed L, even people who don't deserve it, because it seems like it means a lot to you. I'll be the first! *hugging* the L. Satisfied?

I don't like to get into these types of "arguments" because they are nothing more than spirit drainers. I'm not bothered when a "told you" comes out (right or wrong) but to drag it on and on is so petty.

We'd never have these conversations if people didn't go in for years on people for takes they weren't even wrong about. I got dragged for years and years by IT fanboys over supporting Smart and saying we should have tanked a little harder. And now we are going to pretend they were right all along because Smart makes an extra basket every five games?

Nope!

[Parliament10]

Read on Twitter

[Captain_Caveman]

Well, he completely changed his shot profile and 3pt shooting percentages this year. So I think 95% of people who had an issue with Smart, it was because he took too many awful shots and also he couldn't shoot from 3. He changed both this year. He took 61% of his shots from three this year (up from 48.3% the year prior) AND improved his 3pt shooting from 30.1% (TERRIBLE, **** ME I WANT TO DIE IT'S SO BAD, OH MY GOD MY EYES ARE BURNING FROM ALL THE TERRIBLE BRICKS) to 36.4% (HMM, THIS IS PRETTY GOOD, KEEP IT UP, MARCUS).

If you predicted that he would both improve his shot selection and go from the worst volume 3pt shooter in NBA history to an above average 3 pt shooter (in one season), congrats. Otherwise, take a nap on the victory lap.

On the day he signed his contract he had taken 1093 3P shots at a 29.3% clip. Then he immediately shot 346 @ 36.4%. He went from bottom 10 all-time to 38th in the NBA (as in, 37 player took more 3s at a higher percentage last season).

LMAOOOOOO.

Yeah, nah.

Smart undeniably made a much stronger contribution to many more wins the previous season, despite playing hurt, and despite carrying a sorry scoring-deficient bench on a very young team that made it to a game away from the Finals despite missing two All-Stars.

The whole idea of his making some major leap as a player this year comes from stat-biased people who whiffed hard on the guy for multiple years in a row simply because they didn't know how to process a player's contribution outside of box scores.

For the ones who hated on him hard, as many did? Well, they don't have to own it, but it will own them whether they like it or not.

That is just as much nonsense in reverse. You can't believe that Marcus Smart was the same player last year as he was the two years before because it flat out isn't true. Yes he contributed to winning but he also contributed to gross offense he was the point guard of it. He also struggled with the pressures of earning that NBA pay day and very logically his mother's health issues. He literally missed like 2 months for punching a picture frame because of his poor decision making and bad shooting. It was like bad decision making squared.

I'm saying it isn't even debatable. Two years ago, we lost our secondary scoring and playmaking option 6 minutes into the year. A few months later, we lost our primary scoring and playmaking option. This is the most important difference between the last two seasons. Maybe it helps to have actually played on teams before to understand this, but two years ago, Smart and the rest of the team were asked to step up to fill that void. In doing so, they had to step up above and beyond their abilities, on a team that was younger and less talented than last year's. While they did not face the same caliber of playoff opponent in the 2nd round as this year's team, they were clearly better and more successful.

Smart in particular put his stamp on dozens of wins, many in which he helped to spark the big comebacks that never seemed to happen last year. He did it with defense, he did it with playmaking, he did it with scoring, he did it with hustle, he did it with grit, and he did it while leading a bench unit of scrubs. Mostly because the team itself took on a lot of his identity. Go rewatch the Sixers crawling into a hole during the playoffs if you forgot about that. Talent wins first in this league, but it is also a hyper-competitive sport played by hyper-alphas, and he (and Morris) alpha'd the living **** out of people in that series, and in that season on the whole.

This past year, guys come back, and Smart was knocked down the pecking order to start with. Totally reduced role, and the team lost their identity altogether with a 10-10 start full of selfish, listless play. Smart (and Morris) move back to the starting lineup, and the team goes 39-23 the rest of the way. Smart got more efficient mostly because he got placed in more efficient situations where, unlike the previous season, he was not asked to do too much on an undermanned team, and could stay more within his skills and abilities. You described that pretty well just a post ago, actually. Smart pretty much the same guy he always was, just ultimately with less impact and a lesser contribution in a lesser role, despite his more efficient shooting stats.

In the world where stats > wins, sure, I guess he had a better year.

[Bleeding Green]

Wins aren't a statistically provable event.

[Captain_Caveman]

Smart took a greater than ever % of his shots from the 3 last year, at 61% (after being in the 40's the three previous seasons). He also had his highest % year from the 3 in shooting, as well as his highest % of 3's being corner 3's. He also shot his lowest or tied-lowest percent of his shots in his career from each of the mid-range distances (3-10, 10-16, 16-<3). And yes, he finished better at the basket. It really was a combination of shooting and shot selection. Oh, and also lower usage, as he was the lowest on that in his career last year as well.

Looking at Smart's shooting breakdown I think what we saw last year was first of all 80 games, the dude was healthy, he shot less off the dribble and more catch and shoot. This also at least to my minds eye cut down on the ill advised early in the shot clock 3 (he also had no half court heaves). I also think getting the contract done really helped his confidence and just let him play a little more free.

He really isn't all that far off the Chauncey Billups development path I have always hoped for him. Billups turned the corner at 24 years old and in his 4th season. He came into the league a year older than Smart and had more injury issues.

It will be fascinating to see how CBS handles the line up decisions and their impact. Coming off of the heels of last season's chemistry failure this year is going to be even more muddy. The team essentially has two starters in Walker and Tatum, and then you have 3 guys in Brown, Hayward, and Smart who are NBA starters and only one of them may be able to be in the starting line up unless they can combine with Tatum to rebound well enough to get by with him at the PF spot. Add to that you have 3 rookies in Langford, Williams, and Edwards who are locked and loaded offensively which is great but they have also been primary options since the minute the stepped on the floor.

What do you guys make of the Kemba signing in relation to Smart? To me it seems a pretty big no confidence vote to Smart as a starting PG. There's just literally no way he gets significant minutes running the team with the other starters to complete that Billups progression anymore. The FO has either resigned themselves to Smart always being just the ultimate glue guy/bench contributor, or pushed him to starting SG to make up for a short/defensively deficient scoring PG now? I really wanted to see a Smart/Brown/Tatum starting lineup and let all of them grow their playmaking skills and see what we had. Obviously, there's time with Kemba not out there, but it's not the same thing as handing him the ball and making him the starting 1.

I don't think Smart has been expected to be the starting PG at any point in his career. He will get his 30mpg that he is appropriately paid for, and that's a good thing.

[Captain_Caveman]

Wins aren't a statistically provable event.

Not sure if I have already said this nine times, but I think your point is far too focused on stats to begin with.

Which is a fundamentally-flawed way to gauge Smart's worth as a player.

And statistically insignificant given his low shot attempts.

[MagicBagley18]

the good old smart debates....u know its slow season. brings me back when i just lurker

[Captain_Caveman]

the good old smart debates....u know its slow season. brings me back when i just lurker

Best part is how many Smart haters there were who were steadfast that we shouldn't have tanked for better prospects during that period.

[MagicBagley18]

the good old smart debates....u know its slow season. brings me back when i just lurker

Best part is how many Smart haters there were who were steadfast that we shouldn't have tanked for better prospects during that period.

whats your take on giving brown an extension at his max?

[SmartWentCrazy]

the good old smart debates....u know its slow season. brings me back when i just lurker

Best part is how many Smart haters there were who were steadfast that we shouldn't have tanked for better prospects during that period.

whats your take on giving brown an extension at his max?

It’d be a bad move most likely. His BBIQ isnt high enough to warrant a max.

He’ll 100% get a max this summer, though. So if were not planning on giving it to him, we should trade him.

[MagicBagley18]

Best part is how many Smart haters there were who were steadfast that we shouldn't have tanked for better prospects during that period.

whats your take on giving brown an extension at his max?

It’d be a bad move most likely. His BBIQ isnt high enough to warrant a max.

He’ll 100% get a max this summer, though. So if were not planning on giving it to him, we should trade him.

you're preaching to the choir my man

[Darth Celtic]

Right now it's 4 players: Waters, Tacko, Strus, and Green competing for 3 spots- two 2 ways and one on the regular roster.

2 ways can be easily upgraded or terminated, so any of these guys are technically in the running for roster, 2 way, or gone.

Waters seems a near lock for the roster or 2 way. Strus is 2 way or gone. Green has the steepest climb to earn any spot. Tacko seems to be in the midst of contract bargaining. He and his agent would no doubt like something a bit different than Ainge does.

There's no reason to make all the decisions right away on who lands where, as other things can still happen like injuries or trades.


Lastly, all these guys could make it if someone else was moved out. For example Ojeleye might conceivably not have a path to minutes on this team anymore, though Brad Stevens did say how much he'd improved last year even though he wasn't playing much. It wouldn't be hard to trade Semi.

Any player with only a year left on their contract such as Wanamaker might find themselves simply waived if they get outperformed at training camp.

If Edwards shows he's ready for 3rd string, and I think he is, and Waters impresses, I could see Waters getting the spot opening up another 2 way. Wannamakers is like our 2nd oldest or oldest player, i know it's close.

[Fencer reregistered]

Has the Horford Tampering article been talked about yet? Kind of a who cares, but I was thinking about Horford earlier. It's amazing he's not getting any hate on here after Ray got so much hate for so long for a somewhat comparable thing.

Judas Shuttlesworth left for LESS MONEY. Big difference.

[Fencer reregistered]

Has the Horford Tampering article been talked about yet? Kind of a who cares, but I was thinking about Horford earlier. It's amazing he's not getting any hate on here after Ray got so much hate for so long for a somewhat comparable thing.

Celtics fans have always been ridiculously petty towards Ray, and yeah I say that with some biases but it's true. I'm glad Horford's getting better treatment.

The FO has to be kidding, getting pissed about tampering. They pretty blatantly tampered to get Kemba. It happens with every player worth having, and it sounds like they're mostly just grumpy that Horford got a sneak peek at his open market value which killed their chances of signing him to a sweetheart deal. Boo hoo. Good for Al.

The last bit of the article acknowledged the Kemba point. And that's probably why there hasn't been more of a fuss over Horford.

Note, however, that the Cs are perhaps the most visible team lobbying for a rule change in which free agency happens sooner and the draft later. So "tampering everywhere" narratives fit their case.

[Captain_Caveman]

the good old smart debates....u know its slow season. brings me back when i just lurker

Best part is how many Smart haters there were who were steadfast that we shouldn't have tanked for better prospects during that period.

whats your take on giving brown an extension at his max?

Do what we did with Smart. Let him hit the market with the threat to match any offer sheet. Try to drive down his market value that way.

[Captain_Caveman]

Has the Horford Tampering article been talked about yet? Kind of a who cares, but I was thinking about Horford earlier. It's amazing he's not getting any hate on here after Ray got so much hate for so long for a somewhat comparable thing.

Judas Shuttlesworth left for LESS MONEY. Big difference.

Was a lot of spin going on with that. Same as when TA left. Didn't we lowball with a backup role in mind, then "try" to outbid other suitors at the 11th hour?

[Fencer reregistered]

Smart took a greater than ever % of his shots from the 3 last year, at 61% (after being in the 40's the three previous seasons). He also had his highest % year from the 3 in shooting, as well as his highest % of 3's being corner 3's. He also shot his lowest or tied-lowest percent of his shots in his career from each of the mid-range distances (3-10, 10-16, 16-<3). And yes, he finished better at the basket. It really was a combination of shooting and shot selection. Oh, and also lower usage, as he was the lowest on that in his career last year as well.

Looking at Smart's shooting breakdown I think what we saw last year was first of all 80 games, the dude was healthy, he shot less off the dribble and more catch and shoot. This also at least to my minds eye cut down on the ill advised early in the shot clock 3 (he also had no half court heaves). I also think getting the contract done really helped his confidence and just let him play a little more free.

He really isn't all that far off the Chauncey Billups development path I have always hoped for him. Billups turned the corner at 24 years old and in his 4th season. He came into the league a year older than Smart and had more injury issues.

It will be fascinating to see how CBS handles the line up decisions and their impact. Coming off of the heels of last season's chemistry failure this year is going to be even more muddy. The team essentially has two starters in Walker and Tatum, and then you have 3 guys in Brown, Hayward, and Smart who are NBA starters and only one of them may be able to be in the starting line up unless they can combine with Tatum to rebound well enough to get by with him at the PF spot. Add to that you have 3 rookies in Langford, Williams, and Edwards who are locked and loaded offensively which is great but they have also been primary options since the minute the stepped on the floor.

What do you guys make of the Kemba signing in relation to Smart? To me it seems a pretty big no confidence vote to Smart as a starting PG. There's just literally no way he gets significant minutes running the team with the other starters to complete that Billups progression anymore. The FO has either resigned themselves to Smart always being just the ultimate glue guy/bench contributor, or pushed him to starting SG to make up for a short/defensively deficient scoring PG now? I really wanted to see a Smart/Brown/Tatum starting lineup and let all of them grow their playmaking skills and see what we had. Obviously, there's time with Kemba not out there, but it's not the same thing as handing him the ball and making him the starting 1.

It could also just (mainly) be that getting a PG like Kemba was easier than getting a similar quality big, and we're even more overloaded at wing than at PG.

[Darth Celtic]

Best part is how many Smart haters there were who were steadfast that we shouldn't have tanked for better prospects during that period.

whats your take on giving brown an extension at his max?

Do what we did with Smart. Let him hit the market with the threat to match any offer sheet. Try to drive down his market value that way.

If you trade him, smart and filler for Beal with maybe the Bucks pick, sure. You don't dump him for another pick or prospect. You don't know what he is yet, or what he will be offered. Not a lot of cap space next year as teams are saving it for 2021 mass market again. Who offers him this max? Worst thing is you match it, wait a year, then trade it for a Max you feel is better and the griz top 3 pick.

There was no reason to dump rozier/smart/ or JB early. They are not unrestricted free agents and max for him is only like 27m.

Smart got us Smart on a great contract. Rozier got us a 2nd round pick cheap insurance in case we didn't get Kemba/Kyrie. JB is our Hayward still Sucks insurance.

[sully00]

Yeah, nah.

Smart undeniably made a much stronger contribution to many more wins the previous season, despite playing hurt, and despite carrying a sorry scoring-deficient bench on a very young team that made it to a game away from the Finals despite missing two All-Stars.

The whole idea of his making some major leap as a player this year comes from stat-biased people who whiffed hard on the guy for multiple years in a row simply because they didn't know how to process a player's contribution outside of box scores.

For the ones who hated on him hard, as many did? Well, they don't have to own it, but it will own them whether they like it or not.

That is just as much nonsense in reverse. You can't believe that Marcus Smart was the same player last year as he was the two years before because it flat out isn't true. Yes he contributed to winning but he also contributed to gross offense he was the point guard of it. He also struggled with the pressures of earning that NBA pay day and very logically his mother's health issues. He literally missed like 2 months for punching a picture frame because of his poor decision making and bad shooting. It was like bad decision making squared.

I'm saying it isn't even debatable. Two years ago, we lost our secondary scoring and playmaking option 6 minutes into the year. A few months later, we lost our primary scoring and playmaking option. This is the most important difference between the last two seasons. Maybe it helps to have actually played on teams before to understand this, but two years ago, Smart and the rest of the team were asked to step up to fill that void. In doing so, they had to step up above and beyond their abilities, on a team that was younger and less talented than last year's. While they did not face the same caliber of playoff opponent in the 2nd round as this year's team, they were clearly better and more successful.

Smart in particular put his stamp on dozens of wins, many in which he helped to spark the big comebacks that never seemed to happen last year. He did it with defense, he did it with playmaking, he did it with scoring, he did it with hustle, he did it with grit, and he did it while leading a bench unit of scrubs. Mostly because the team itself took on a lot of his identity. Go rewatch the Sixers crawling into a hole during the playoffs if you forgot about that. Talent wins first in this league, but it is also a hyper-competitive sport played by hyper-alphas, and he (and Morris) alpha'd the living **** out of people in that series, and in that season on the whole.

This past year, guys come back, and Smart was knocked down the pecking order to start with. Totally reduced role, and the team lost their identity altogether with a 10-10 start full of selfish, listless play. Smart (and Morris) move back to the starting lineup, and the team goes 39-23 the rest of the way. Smart got more efficient mostly because he got placed in more efficient situations where, unlike the previous season, he was not asked to do too much on an undermanned team, and could stay more within his skills and abilities. You described that pretty well just a post ago, actually. Smart pretty much the same guy he always was, just ultimately with less impact and a lesser contribution in a lesser role, despite his more efficient shooting stats.

In the world where stats > wins, sure, I guess he had a better year.

This is why stats are important because they stop memory bias from gas lighting you. I know what you are talking about Smart's hustle and effort nailing down a couple of wins but it was in fact a couple of wins. First of all he was only involved in 38 wins the whole season. The team was 6 and 5 with him as a starter. They were better with him in the line up but that line up also included Irving.

17/18 seasons split's almost sum up this situation. Smart scored more ppg (12) and shot the ball better (40%/38%) in the teams losses than its wins (9ppg/35%/25%). His ORTG in both the wins and losses that year was a gross 96 the difference is on the defensive end where he had a DRTG of 102 in wins and 110 in the losses.

Now this past season we saw a player whose production was the same in wins and loses for the most part shot the ball better in the wins on lower usage. He had a DRTG of 103 in the wins and 117 in the losses and actually added an ORTG of 114 in the wins against a pretty respectable 108 in the losses. He was a +13 in the wins and a -11 in the losses.

While last year wasn't a great year chemistry wise for this team it was a fantastic year for an effective and efficient Marcus Smart in stark comparison to the offensive **** show it had been previously.