Hawks are a realistic playoff threat

HotelVitale · Post #41 » by **HotelVitale** » Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:03 pm

I get the enthusiasm but I'd bet a ton of money on ATL missing the PO. Besides the Hornets, all of the borderline PO teams from the east this year got better or stayed the same (BKN, ORL, DET, MIA, WAS), which means that there's 5 decent teams plus the Hawks vying for the last 3 slots. East may have gotten weaker overall but I don't think it's going to be easier to make the playoffs.

It's possible that the Raptors fall into that tier too, Pacers too if Oladipo is out for much of the season. Either way, as a neutral observer this seems like a vague possibility but very unlikely. (This also has high potential to be one of those threads that people who predicted playoffs will call back to if the Hawks do make it and say 'look at how wise I was and idiotic all the doubting fools were!' but will never mention again if they were wrong. AKA the realgm special.)

Post #42 » by **Jamaaliver** » Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:52 am

The Hawks’ path to the playoffs this season isn’t as easy as many think

A popular sentiment from many Hawks fans this offseason has been that this team should have no problems competing for the eighth seed this season, but it’s not that simple for a team that only won 29 games [last year].

It’s not surprising, but when the team’s over/under win total of 32.5 was posted a few days ago on Twitter, many Hawks fans tweeted how easy it would be for Atlanta to soar above that mark. But is it?

I think the reasonable expectation is for the Hawks to surpass the over/under of 32.5 victories -- with the 10th seed in the East being the team’s floor and the eighth seed being the team’s ceiling.

There are several question marks surrounding this team heading into the season. When we look at the Eastern Conference as a whole, I think we can confidently say Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Boston, Indiana and Brooklyn, barring any significant injuries, will make the playoffs.

Realistically, the Hawks are still a year away from being legit playoff hopefuls, and that’s perfectly OK for where this team is in its rebuild.

The Athletic

Post #43 » by **Jamaaliver** » Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:36 pm

538.com currently predicts we end up with the 5th worst record in the NBA next season.

:sour:

FiveThirtyEight: 2019-20 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision

Atlanta Hawks

The dregs of the East are pretty clearly delineated. The Hawks showed promise last season but are still some distance from contending.

Projected Record: 28-54

Chance of making playoffs: 10%

Chance of making NBA Finals: <1%

Chance of Winning Title: <1%

Spoiler:

King Ken · Post #44 » by **King Ken** » Fri Jul 19, 2019 4:02 pm

Carmelo is not a good projector for young teams in my opinion. But it's good in general

shakes0 · Post #45 » by **shakes0** » Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:32 pm

I don't agree with 28 wins, but 5th worst record in the league and 10% chance to make playoffs sounds right to me.

shakes0 · Post #46 » by **shakes0** » Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:38 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:
The Hawks’ path to the playoffs this season isn’t as easy as many think

A popular sentiment from many Hawks fans this offseason has been that this team should have no problems competing for the eighth seed this season, but it’s not that simple for a team that only won 29 games [last year].

It’s not surprising, but when the team’s over/under win total of 32.5 was posted a few days ago on Twitter, many Hawks fans tweeted how easy it would be for Atlanta to soar above that mark. But is it?

I think the reasonable expectation is for the Hawks to surpass the over/under of 32.5 victories -- with the 10th seed in the East being the team’s floor and the eighth seed being the team’s ceiling.

There are several question marks surrounding this team heading into the season. When we look at the Eastern Conference as a whole, I think we can confidently say Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Boston, Indiana and Brooklyn, barring any significant injuries, will make the playoffs.

Realistically, the Hawks are still a year away from being legit playoff hopefuls, and that’s perfectly OK for where this team is in its rebuild.
The Athletic

This article is a joke. Saying that the floor is 10th seed is ridiculous. The floor is clearly and almost objectively 12th seed. There are only 3 teams in the East that are clearly worse than Atlanta.....NY, CLE and CHA.

I'm not even convinced that the team will be better than last year's team.

Here are pros and cons to the team being better than last year...

PRO:
Young players continue to take a step forward
Collins not injured
Rookies surprise and contribute

CON:
Replaced a lot of vets with rookies
Unknown if rookies will produce this year
Loss of Dedman is a lot bigger than people want to admit
Other players on other teams who were hurt last year stay healthy this year

CP War Hawks · Post #47 » by **CP War Hawks** » Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:42 pm

The Hawks can score with the best of em, they just get scored on with the worst of em. Dedmon is a loss but the dropoff shouldn't be much from Len, atleast stats wise.

Only rook they are counting on is Hunter, and he is ready as anyone from this class. Depth is better from last season when you consider no more G leaguers on the roster.

They have multiple expirings to add a big or pg via trade.

fuzzy1 · Post #48 » by **fuzzy1** » Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:34 am

Losing Dedmon is bad, but the bottom of the East is getting worse. We'll be better than Charlotte, NY, CLE and Washington. Probably better than the Bulls too. Detroit, Miami and Orlando are who we gotta pass. If Trae plays all year like he did post all-star break (Not a guarantee, much as I love the kid) I think we make it

Sent from my SM-J700T using RealGM mobile app

hawks_fan25 · Post #49 » by **hawks_fan25** » Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:24 am

We already beat the odds in dropping down to the 8th spot once this year, so I’m not counting out that we will beat them again and grab the 8th at the end of the year. ;-)

EazyRoc · Post #50 » by **EazyRoc** » Sun Jul 21, 2019 2:20 pm

The wildcard in where the Hawks will ultimately fall is the Center position. If any of Len, Jones, and Fernando play as good as Dedmon, then we will make the playoffs.

Trae, John, and Kevin should all be better both offensively and defensively. Hunter looks like a guy that could be a good/great defender and 35%+ 3pt shooter in his rookie season. Cam and Jabari off the bench could be a powerful combo offensively. Hawks will end up Top 5 in 3PM, 3P%, & APG this season.

Don’t take for granted what this team was doing after the ASB last year. The league can’t just sit in their heels either because we have still made a net improvement of the team. Hawks could fight for a playoff spot if healthy. Another chance in the lottery wouldn’t be the worst thing either, but I don’t think we should tank either.

BigRedDog · Post #51 » by **BigRedDog** » Sun Jul 21, 2019 6:56 pm

Hawks arent a playoff contender, losing dedmon really hurts and the team just has zero defenders... Trae would have to become one of the premeire offensive players in the league to become even "net neutral" and push you guys towards being .500 because of his atrocious defense... now that can happen, but it wont be next season already...

on top of that you really made no ntoeworthy additions this season.... this is just one of those teams where you throw a bunch of young guys in the game and see if after 3-4 years you have anyone worth keeping... that doesnt ever accidently start to win in the nba...

my main concern is the overall lack of direction with the franchise... trading luka was a huge blow... then drafting reddish after he busted at duke is a giant question mark...

King Ken · Post #52 » by **King Ken** » Sun Jul 21, 2019 9:53 pm

BigRedDog wrote:Hawks arent a playoff contender, losing dedmon really hurts and the team just has zero defenders... Trae would have to become one of the premeire offensive players in the league to become even "net neutral" and push you guys towards being .500 because of his atrocious defense... now that can happen, but it wont be next season already...

on top of that you really made no ntoeworthy additions this season.... this is just one of those teams where you throw a bunch of young guys in the game and see if after 3-4 years you have anyone worth keeping... that doesnt ever accidently start to win in the nba...

my main concern is the overall lack of direction with the franchise... trading luka was a huge blow... then drafting reddish after he busted at duke is a giant question mark...

I disagree.
Why?
Four reasons

1. Fit
2. Talent
3. System
4. Trae Young

Fit - We are one of the best fits in the NBA. Trae, John and Kevin fit was in the top 5 of unit offensive efficiency as and our offense efficiency with Collins was 6th in the entire NBA. I have a feeling that we should see Trae take an enormous jump on offense either equaling or like Fox being better than his best rookie year and being a rare 5-6 offensive player. By that being one of the best offensive players in the NBA which I do believe is possible as Trae was a top 12 offensive player after ASB.

I have Collins who projections think he outplayed his offense expectancy when combining the years to become a 2-3 PF on offense and hit the 3 mark which he hit the 1.9 mark last year. I can easily see him average 24-25ppg this year.

I do expect Kev to improve and hit his projected marks but I am not expecting to him to top it.

I haven't graded the SF position since Cam is my expected starter and I expect him and Hunter to split mins but I have no expectations other than it will be a better fit than Prince just due to the defensive improvements of both players over Prince and I especially high on Reddish. Although not high enough to project him which is why I tend not to project rookies before they play in terms of w/ls.

Len is a guy I expect to produce and he was always produced with Trae on the court. I do expect Dedmon to be a lose and one that we feel fit wise especially Collins but not one that moves us from winning less than 44 games if we stay relatively healthy.

2. I just explained that I strongly fit Trae should be a top end offensive player in year 2. I also feel that way for Collins for a big. Those two should be worth enough wins for 44 games in either conference. I strongly believe that. I do feel the projections are right about Kevin Huerter. I think he is on that path. He could outplay it but I doubt it.

I just don't think Dedmon is worth a win or loss honestly. He has value but he is a replacement level player but he fits any system so that makes him a good fill in player which is great if you are big on fit which matters in the NBA.

3. System outside of fit and talent is the 3rd most important indicator of regular season wins for NBA teams. A great system can win you more games than your projected talent and fit. Atlanta has a tremendous offensive system that teams steal from which is strange considering how young we are but youth has NEVER been a indicator of regular season success. I expect us to win games just due to outscoring and outpacing teams off the court that felt we were a win on their schedule. Something we seen last year to a lesser degree.

4. Trae Young will take a major step up. If you seen his Jan to Apr, he was 24/9 monster. He was unstoppable and the Hawks were extremely tough to beat with one of the most injury riddled teams in the NBA last year. With Trae playing 35 minutes per game, I expect the that to be the norm with efficiency just as high or better. I am expecting a top 3-5 offensive campaign in the tier of Steph, Dame, Kemba, and Kyrie which is high feasible due to the 3 things list above and his offensive talent. I do expect Trae to be better on defense just by the addition of Hunter and Reddish as well as reaching his projected defensive metrics. If Trae is a +2 overall player, 44 wins is extremely possible and expected. If he reachs +3 or +4, watch out. All NBA possibilites is in reach. The projects have Trae as a net neutral player. I have him as a +2.5 projection.

BigRedDog · Post #53 » by **BigRedDog** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:13 am

King Ken wrote:
4. Trae Young will take a major step up. If you seen his Jan to Apr, he was 24/9 monster. He was unstoppable and the Hawks were extremely tough to beat with one of the most injury riddled teams in the NBA last year. With Trae playing 35 minutes per game, I expect the that to be the norm with efficiency just as high or better. I am expecting a top 3-5 offensive campaign in the tier of Steph, Dame, Kemba, and Kyrie which is high feasible due to the 3 things list above and his offensive talent. I do expect Trae to be better on defense just by the addition of Hunter and Reddish as well as reaching his projected defensive metrics. If Trae is a +2 overall player, 44 wins is extremely possible and expected. If he reachs +3 or +4, watch out. All NBA possibilites is in reach. The projects have Trae as a net neutral player. I have him as a +2.5 projection.

1) What was their record during that 24/9 stretch from Jan to April?

2) Trae was a -4 something on defense last year so to get to +2.5 he basically has to be peak Harden on offense... that's too extreme... i do agree he can be +3 or POSSIBLY +4 on offense this year but i dont really see how he improves substantially on defense. He looks like a lost cause on that end... granted we have seen a few guys like Dame lillard overcome their size differential and become respectable defenders but for every guy like him there are ten Kyries, bookers, etc that continue to be worthless defenders...

3) I agree getting rid of Prince/Bazemore could help as they were both worthless last year.

4) Agree that Huerter has some value.

5) Disagree completely with your assessment of Dedmon & Len

King Ken · Post #54 » by **King Ken** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:27 am

BigRedDog wrote:
King Ken wrote:
4. Trae Young will take a major step up. If you seen his Jan to Apr, he was 24/9 monster. He was unstoppable and the Hawks were extremely tough to beat with one of the most injury riddled teams in the NBA last year. With Trae playing 35 minutes per game, I expect the that to be the norm with efficiency just as high or better. I am expecting a top 3-5 offensive campaign in the tier of Steph, Dame, Kemba, and Kyrie which is high feasible due to the 3 things list above and his offensive talent. I do expect Trae to be better on defense just by the addition of Hunter and Reddish as well as reaching his projected defensive metrics. If Trae is a +2 overall player, 44 wins is extremely possible and expected. If he reachs +3 or +4, watch out. All NBA possibilites is in reach. The projects have Trae as a net neutral player. I have him as a +2.5 projection.

1) What was their record during that 24/9 stretch from Jan to April?

2) Trae was a -4 something on defense last year so to get to +2.5 he basically has to be peak Harden on offense... that's too extreme... i do agree he can be +3 or POSSIBLY +4 on offense this year but i dont really see how he improves substantially on defense. He looks like a lost cause on that end... granted we have seen a few guys like Dame lillard overcome their size differential and become respectable defenders but for every guy like him there are ten Kyries, bookers, etc that continue to be worthless defenders...

3) I agree getting rid of Prince/Bazemore could help as they were both worthless last year.

4) Agree that Huerter has some value.

5) Disagree completely with your assessment of Dedmon & Len

Better than Luka's. Clearly better than Luka. What's the Mavs record with Luka last year playing and what's the Hawks record with Trae playing?

Projected D-value is -3.3 which I think he can reach as a 2nd year player. To get any higher, it would come from the personnel more than himself at this stage.

He is already projected by CARMELO to be a 3.6, I clearly believe he can be a 5.6 and higher due to his offensive value increasing to an elite level. To say he needs to be Harden level is not true at all. Harden off value was a 8.9. If he's a 8.9 which he won't be, that means he has surpassed his negative D projection by 5 points which is worth A LOT by their projection charts and would put the Hawks as the 2nd best team in the East. So obviously Harden level is a clear reach by your end which once again is not feasible anyway.

They weren't worthless, they didn't fit the new system which was pace based and they were no protection. Bud likes to protect his players strengths and weaknesses. Our new system puts you more on an island. It showcases talent more but makes it's difficult if you just don't fit what we do. Fit is more valuable in our new system. You have to fit our pace, style of play, system and Trae Young. Otherwise, enjoy the pine.

Kevin is a baller and proved that much. I am not expecting him to surpass his projections. He killed his projections of last year which was very low as most rookies. But this year, I think he will be more efficient and more of a reliable defender which he was last year but he has more help with Cam and De'Andre.

The data says otherwise with Len. He produce just as much. With Trae was averaging like 18/10 in his last ten games. He clearly fits but as one mentioned, someone has to now replace Len. That was a nice lower end tandem we had with Dedmon/Len. Still both are just replacement level players. Neither are difference makers for wins or losses. That's all on Trae/John/Kevin. Now obviously we hope Cam and De'Andre can make their mark as well but like all rookies, you have to prove you can hoop.

jayu70 · Post #55 » by **jayu70** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:23 am

BigRedDog wrote:Hawks arent a playoff contender, losing dedmon really hurts and the team just has zero defenders... Trae would have to become one of the premeire offensive players in the league to become even "net neutral" and push you guys towards being .500 because of his atrocious defense... now that can happen, but it wont be next season already...

on top of that you really made no ntoeworthy additions this season.... this is just one of those teams where you throw a bunch of young guys in the game and see if after 3-4 years you have anyone worth keeping... that doesnt ever accidently start to win in the nba...

my main concern is the overall lack of direction with the franchise... trading luka was a huge blow... then drafting reddish after he busted at duke is a giant question mark...

This is a confusing statement.
There is no concern with the direction. We are rebuilding thru the draft. TS knows exactly the type of he's looking for to rebuild the team. The trio of Trae, John Collins and Huerter were offensive juggernauts last season. In this draft TS wanted size, length and defense on the wings and at C and guys that are DPS players. He got exactly what he wanted!

Post #56 » by **Jamaaliver** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:21 am

jayu70 wrote:
BigRedDog wrote:my main concern is the overall lack of direction with the franchise

This is a confusing statement.
There is no concern with the direction. We are rebuilding thru the draft. He got exactly what he wanted!

BRD is clearly mistaking our rebuilding Hawks with his own woebegone Hornets franchise that has no discernible direction.

I believe the term is 'projecting'.

King Ken · Post #57 » by **King Ken** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:47 am

Jamaaliver wrote:
jayu70 wrote:
BigRedDog wrote:my main concern is the overall lack of direction with the franchise

This is a confusing statement.
There is no concern with the direction. We are rebuilding thru the draft. He got exactly what he wanted!

BRD is clearly mistaking our rebuilding Hawks with his own woebegone Hornets franchise that has no discernible direction.

I believe the term is 'projecting'.

Any general Luka stan tends to be down on us from what I notice. The minutes someone's even mentions Luka as a mark v. The Hawks. I tend to already know their opinion will be hogwash.

jayu70 · Post #58 » by **jayu70** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:52 pm

King Ken wrote:
Jamaaliver wrote:
jayu70 wrote:

This is a confusing statement.
There is no concern with the direction. We are rebuilding thru the draft. He got exactly what he wanted!

BRD is clearly mistaking our rebuilding Hawks with his own woebegone Hornets franchise that has no discernible direction.

I believe the term is 'projecting'.

Any general Luka stan tends to be down on us from what I notice. The minutes someone's even mentions Luka as a mark v. The Hawks. I tend to already know their opinion will be hogwash.

dorkestra · Post #59 » by **dorkestra** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:41 pm

I got a third strike and week ban from the general board for "Trolling" because I predicted the Hawks to make the playoffs and be better than the Celtics. Thing is, I wasn't trolling and I believe that this will happen. I predict John Collins to make the all-star team this year.

King Ken · Post #60 » by **King Ken** » Tue Jul 23, 2019 6:15 pm

dorkestra wrote:I got a third strike and week ban from the general board for "Trolling" because I predicted the Hawks to make the playoffs and be better than the Celtics. Thing is, I wasn't trolling and I believe that this will happen. I predict John Collins to make the all-star team this year.

While I don't expect the Hawks to be better than the Celtics. We got some **** mods in gereral. We got great ones on here, some good ones in Boston and NY but some of them just ruin it for everybody. There is this racist in Toronto who banned me, flamed me and attacked me and Howard still allowed the bigot to be a mod. Give me atl boy, hmf4l and them 100000000000 times over before some of these bigot mods.

Will the Hawks make the playoffs?