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Who Will Be the Odd Men Out?

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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#21 » by winter_mute_13 » Tue Jul 30, 2019 7:19 pm

I actually think McConnell will end up playing a lot this season. Not a knock on A. Holiday, but if the Pacers are serious about more playmaking then it's more likely to come from TJ than from Aaron.

I think Brogdon might be suffering from Jalen Rose syndrome, LOL. He thinks he's a point guard, but maybe he's really a SF. Regardless, I'm sure he was promised the starting PG spot, so that's where he'll start, but I think it will be eventually clear to everyone that it's not his best position. We'll see.

I really hope Warren doesn't start. Every thing about his game screams bench scorer to me. I think that's the perfect role for him.

I'm all for a 3 guard lineup. Brogdon-Lamb-Dipo seems like a good combination to me. With Holiday, Holiday, McConnell, and Sumner as subs, there are a lot of mix and match options. At least one of these guys has to sit though when Dipo is back.

For the bigs, I think Myles, Domas, and Warren will split the majority of the minutes. What's left is between Goga and Leaf, IMO. Our big rotation is going to look weird this season, haha. We're either gonna field 2 center lineups or put in a smallball 4. Leaf is the closest thing to a 4 on this team, and he could be easily cast as a modern 5 instead on another team.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#22 » by Wizop » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:20 pm

winter_mute_13 wrote:I really hope Warren doesn't start. Every thing about his game screams bench scorer to me. I think that's the perfect role for him.


from what I'm reading, he's going to be the starting 3 to begin the season. of course, everything can change after Vic returns as a starter at 2.

Warren can play some 4, and match ups could dictate that, but I don't think the plan is to have him in the normal rotation of bigs. I think they'd like to play Myles and Damos together and Goga and Leaf together but minutes will have to be earned. Warren could certainly outplay the other options at 4 and we do have J Holiday and Douggie to backup the 3.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#23 » by Scoot McGroot » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:44 pm

Wizop wrote:
winter_mute_13 wrote:I really hope Warren doesn't start. Every thing about his game screams bench scorer to me. I think that's the perfect role for him.


from what I'm reading, he's going to be the starting 3 to begin the season. of course, everything can change after Vic returns as a starter at 2.

Warren can play some 4, and match ups could dictate that, but I don't think the plan is to have him in the normal rotation of bigs. I think they'd like to play Myles and Damos together and Goga and Leaf together but minutes will have to be earned. Warren could certainly outplay the other options at 4 and we do have J Holiday and Douggie to backup the 3.


Agreed. He's such a poor defender, and even worse rebounder, that I just don't see this being a sustainable long-term option.

I can see Brogdon fitting long-term as a PG rotation here since he's on court with Vic and Dom Sabonis. Add in Lamb and his ability to keep an offense flowing, and the fact that there's not really a ball stopper on the court when you factor in Myles at the 5, and I think Brogdon is a good PG fit there in a free flow offensive system. If we ask him to carry full play making responsibility? Well, I doubt that works best long-term, either.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#24 » by Wizop » Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:26 pm

Read on Twitter
?s=19

Sent from my phone.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#25 » by Scoot McGroot » Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:27 pm

Wizop wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=19

Sent from my phone.


Gave the Naz signing it's own thread, but sheesh. That's a lineup weak on big men, overall, and super duper weak on 4's. We arguably have only 1, maybe 2 true 4's on the roster at all.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#26 » by Wizop » Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:42 am

That's a lineup weak on big men, overall, and super duper weak on 4's. We arguably have only 1, maybe 2 true 4's on the roster at all.


our bigs include Turner, Sabonis, Leaf, Goga, and Warren plus maybe Alize. I think the first 4 will play both 5 and 4.

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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#27 » by Scoot McGroot » Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:56 am

Wizop wrote:
That's a lineup weak on big men, overall, and super duper weak on 4's. We arguably have only 1, maybe 2 true 4's on the roster at all.


our bigs include Turner, Sabonis, Leaf, Goga, and Warren plus maybe Alize. I think the first 4 will play both 5 and 4.

Sent from my phone.


They'll play the 4, but they're not natural 4's. I mean, rather, that they aren't really primed for staying with perimeter based 4's defensively. Alize is the only one. Nate and company, and many beat writers, are stating that Warren is seen as a pure 3 who might only play the 4 situationally, and that the Pacers would prefer he don't. Alize is being mentioned as a 4.

As is, it's counting on Goga to play major minutes right away, or Goga and Leaf to both play a solid amount of minutes from game 1 thru 82. If Myles or Dom end up missing a 10 game stretch or worse, that's a super weak rotation, as it appears right now.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#28 » by 8305 » Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:31 am

Scoot McGroot wrote:
Wizop wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=19

Sent from my phone.


Gave the Naz signing it's own thread, but sheesh. That's a lineup weak on big men, overall, and super duper weak on 4's. We arguably have only 1, maybe 2 true 4's on the roster at all.


It’s been worse. 2016/2017 when it seemed like Myles was the only legit big on the entire team. Really 2017/2018 wasn’t much better. Think of all the times we were forced to roll with Al Jefferson over that two year span. Seems the organization has a lot of confidence in Leaf and Gaga. And, if they plan to run a healthy amount of three guard basketball, minutes for McD and Warren would have to come at the 4. Think positionless basketball. :)
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#29 » by Wizop » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:50 pm

my hope is that the plan is to play a system that is designed for 2 bigs. if the system allows Myles and Damos to be on the floor together, the same system should work for Goga and Leaf. actually, any 2 of the 4 could play together if the system expects 2 centers. there would be some vulnerabilities on defense, but the idea would be to dominate on offense and force the other team to match up. given that Philly is also playing 2 bigs with Horford and Embiid we may be seeing a trend back to smash-mouth in the East.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#30 » by pacers33granger » Thu Aug 1, 2019 1:24 am

I'm not too worried about the bigs situation. It looks like KP is making sure Nate plays the young bigs at this point. If we signed a Lavoy Allen type you know Goga or Leaf or both wouldn't see any non garbage time minutes.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#31 » by Scoot McGroot » Thu Aug 1, 2019 1:36 am

pacers33granger wrote:I'm not too worried about the bigs situation. It looks like KP is making sure Nate plays the young bigs at this point. If we signed a Lavoy Allen type you know Goga or Leaf or both wouldn't see any non garbage time minutes.


In his career, Myles has seasons where he has missed games totaling 22, 1, 17, and 8. Dom has missed 1, 8, and 8 games respectively. We can anticipate that each of these guys will likely miss 8 games. So, if we're lucky, and they don't overlap, we'll have 16 games where we're missing one or the other. That would leave us with Goga, Leaf, and Alize/Warren playing super heavy minutes at the 4/5 for solid stretches of the season. In doing so, that guarantees that Alize will be active most nights, as he'll be our 5th true big man, meaning that we're deactivating an extra guard/wing that we may have kept active.

I know we're not winning a championship this year in all likelihood, but it still seems rail thin, even when hoping for immediate impact from Goga and continued improvement from Leaf and Alize.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#32 » by pacers33granger » Thu Aug 1, 2019 2:23 am

Scoot McGroot wrote:
pacers33granger wrote:I'm not too worried about the bigs situation. It looks like KP is making sure Nate plays the young bigs at this point. If we signed a Lavoy Allen type you know Goga or Leaf or both wouldn't see any non garbage time minutes.


In his career, Myles has seasons where he has missed games totaling 22, 1, 17, and 8. Dom has missed 1, 8, and 8 games respectively. We can anticipate that each of these guys will likely miss 8 games. So, if we're lucky, and they don't overlap, we'll have 16 games where we're missing one or the other. That would leave us with Goga, Leaf, and Alize/Warren playing super heavy minutes at the 4/5 for solid stretches of the season. In doing so, that guarantees that Alize will be active most nights, as he'll be our 5th true big man, meaning that we're deactivating an extra guard/wing that we may have kept active.

I know we're not winning a championship this year in all likelihood, but it still seems rail thin, even when hoping for immediate impact from Goga and continued improvement from Leaf and Alize.


Yeah I get it, but I think we just need to see where all of these guys are at. If we lose a few games, so be it. But still, we won't be thin at center at any point. We may not be good some nights if injuries occur, but Myles, Domas, Leaf, and Goga all can play there and all should see minutes. If need be at PF we just move Warren over as we've got enough guys to cover SF.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#33 » by Scoot McGroot » Thu Aug 1, 2019 2:44 am

pacers33granger wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
pacers33granger wrote:I'm not too worried about the bigs situation. It looks like KP is making sure Nate plays the young bigs at this point. If we signed a Lavoy Allen type you know Goga or Leaf or both wouldn't see any non garbage time minutes.


In his career, Myles has seasons where he has missed games totaling 22, 1, 17, and 8. Dom has missed 1, 8, and 8 games respectively. We can anticipate that each of these guys will likely miss 8 games. So, if we're lucky, and they don't overlap, we'll have 16 games where we're missing one or the other. That would leave us with Goga, Leaf, and Alize/Warren playing super heavy minutes at the 4/5 for solid stretches of the season. In doing so, that guarantees that Alize will be active most nights, as he'll be our 5th true big man, meaning that we're deactivating an extra guard/wing that we may have kept active.

I know we're not winning a championship this year in all likelihood, but it still seems rail thin, even when hoping for immediate impact from Goga and continued improvement from Leaf and Alize.


Yeah I get it, but I think we just need to see where all of these guys are at. If we lose a few games, so be it. But still, we won't be thin at center at any point. We may not be good some nights if injuries occur, but Myles, Domas, Leaf, and Goga all can play there and all should see minutes. If need be at PF we just move Warren over as we've got enough guys to cover SF.


Pritchard and McMillan have talked heavily that Warren is only a 3 here, and both have apparently stressed that privately with the beat writers as they are almost all uniformly in lockstep that while Warren can play some 4, it's not something the franchise is interested in due to his poor rebounding and even worse defense. I don't know that that will be nearly as much a preferential option as we've all discussed here.

But yeah, center will be fine. I haven't expressed any issue there. The 4 is the position I'm worried about, especially if we can't figure out how to get Dom and Myles to play together effectively. At that point, we're stuck with essentially only Leaf and Alize.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#34 » by pacers33granger » Thu Aug 1, 2019 3:08 am

Scoot McGroot wrote:
pacers33granger wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
In his career, Myles has seasons where he has missed games totaling 22, 1, 17, and 8. Dom has missed 1, 8, and 8 games respectively. We can anticipate that each of these guys will likely miss 8 games. So, if we're lucky, and they don't overlap, we'll have 16 games where we're missing one or the other. That would leave us with Goga, Leaf, and Alize/Warren playing super heavy minutes at the 4/5 for solid stretches of the season. In doing so, that guarantees that Alize will be active most nights, as he'll be our 5th true big man, meaning that we're deactivating an extra guard/wing that we may have kept active.

I know we're not winning a championship this year in all likelihood, but it still seems rail thin, even when hoping for immediate impact from Goga and continued improvement from Leaf and Alize.


Yeah I get it, but I think we just need to see where all of these guys are at. If we lose a few games, so be it. But still, we won't be thin at center at any point. We may not be good some nights if injuries occur, but Myles, Domas, Leaf, and Goga all can play there and all should see minutes. If need be at PF we just move Warren over as we've got enough guys to cover SF.


Pritchard and McMillan have talked heavily that Warren is only a 3 here, and both have apparently stressed that privately with the beat writers as they are almost all uniformly in lockstep that while Warren can play some 4, it's not something the franchise is interested in due to his poor rebounding and even worse defense. I don't know that that will be nearly as much a preferential option as we've all discussed here.

But yeah, center will be fine. I haven't expressed any issue there. The 4 is the position I'm worried about, especially if we can't figure out how to get Dom and Myles to play together effectively. At that point, we're stuck with essentially only Leaf and Alize.
I guess my point is more that does it really matter if we only have Leaf and Alize as the PFs for a bit? I'd prefer to run them over a journeyman vet who doesn't move the needle and won't be here next year. If they are that bad then we know they aren't worth investing in further and can pivot versus having them in the Joe Young end of bench until they move to China role.

I'm also skeptical that Warren is better at SF even with his defense snd rebounding issues.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#35 » by Scoot McGroot » Thu Aug 1, 2019 1:56 pm

pacers33granger wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
pacers33granger wrote:
Yeah I get it, but I think we just need to see where all of these guys are at. If we lose a few games, so be it. But still, we won't be thin at center at any point. We may not be good some nights if injuries occur, but Myles, Domas, Leaf, and Goga all can play there and all should see minutes. If need be at PF we just move Warren over as we've got enough guys to cover SF.


Pritchard and McMillan have talked heavily that Warren is only a 3 here, and both have apparently stressed that privately with the beat writers as they are almost all uniformly in lockstep that while Warren can play some 4, it's not something the franchise is interested in due to his poor rebounding and even worse defense. I don't know that that will be nearly as much a preferential option as we've all discussed here.

But yeah, center will be fine. I haven't expressed any issue there. The 4 is the position I'm worried about, especially if we can't figure out how to get Dom and Myles to play together effectively. At that point, we're stuck with essentially only Leaf and Alize.
I guess my point is more that does it really matter if we only have Leaf and Alize as the PFs for a bit? I'd prefer to run them over a journeyman vet who doesn't move the needle and won't be here next year. If they are that bad then we know they aren't worth investing in further and can pivot versus having them in the Joe Young end of bench until they move to China role.

I'm also skeptical that Warren is better at SF even with his defense snd rebounding issues.


I mean, as a defensive focused team, it’s nice to have someone that can defend the 4 on occasion. Ideally, Alize develops into that and that’s be great. But if Alize is in foul trouble during one game of one of those 16 games where Myles or Dom are out? Are we waving the white flag? Is Simon likely to sign off on a plan where we sacrifice chances at the playoffs and another couple home games of revenue?

Clearly, they have a plan. However, they’ve talked down what we as fans have projected of the plan, so maybe the answer is Alize?
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#36 » by pacers33granger » Thu Aug 1, 2019 3:55 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:
pacers33granger wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
Pritchard and McMillan have talked heavily that Warren is only a 3 here, and both have apparently stressed that privately with the beat writers as they are almost all uniformly in lockstep that while Warren can play some 4, it's not something the franchise is interested in due to his poor rebounding and even worse defense. I don't know that that will be nearly as much a preferential option as we've all discussed here.

But yeah, center will be fine. I haven't expressed any issue there. The 4 is the position I'm worried about, especially if we can't figure out how to get Dom and Myles to play together effectively. At that point, we're stuck with essentially only Leaf and Alize.
I guess my point is more that does it really matter if we only have Leaf and Alize as the PFs for a bit? I'd prefer to run them over a journeyman vet who doesn't move the needle and won't be here next year. If they are that bad then we know they aren't worth investing in further and can pivot versus having them in the Joe Young end of bench until they move to China role.

I'm also skeptical that Warren is better at SF even with his defense snd rebounding issues.


I mean, as a defensive focused team, it’s nice to have someone that can defend the 4 on occasion. Ideally, Alize develops into that and that’s be great. But if Alize is in foul trouble during one game of one of those 16 games where Myles or Dom are out? Are we waving the white flag? Is Simon likely to sign off on a plan where we sacrifice chances at the playoffs and another couple home games of revenue?

Clearly, they have a plan. However, they’ve talked down what we as fans have projected of the plan, so maybe the answer is Alize?


I get the sense that Simon is ok with sacrificing some wins, though with the caveat that he still expects at least 2 home playoff games. With Vic out we really should be in evaluation mode and we are at least with Domas/Myles. Plus I think it's an easy sell right now because of the fact that we could really save some money on depth if guys like Alize and Sumner prove worthy of minutes, but they need to get the opportunities to show that.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#37 » by Wizop » Thu Aug 1, 2019 4:25 pm

pacers33granger wrote:With Vic out we really should be in evaluation mode


I think we're still in speculation mode on Vic. If we knew he wasn't going to be at 100% for the whole year, evaluation mode makes sense. But if he's going to be 100% by mid-season, I think we'd be in hold down the fort mode in expectation of a late season run. regardless though, I don't see us intentionally sacrificing wins for player development.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#38 » by pacers33granger » Thu Aug 1, 2019 4:29 pm

Wizop wrote:
pacers33granger wrote:With Vic out we really should be in evaluation mode


I think we're still in speculation mode on Vic. If we knew he wasn't going to be at 100% for the whole year, evaluation mode makes sense. But if he's going to be 100% by mid-season, I think we'd be in hold down the fort mode in expectation of a late season run. regardless though, I don't see us intentionally sacrificing wins for player development.


I don't think there is any situation where he is 100% this year. And unless one of our young guys takes a big step, even with a healthy Vic we're a ways from any sort of run.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#39 » by Scoot McGroot » Thu Aug 1, 2019 4:34 pm

pacers33granger wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
pacers33granger wrote:I guess my point is more that does it really matter if we only have Leaf and Alize as the PFs for a bit? I'd prefer to run them over a journeyman vet who doesn't move the needle and won't be here next year. If they are that bad then we know they aren't worth investing in further and can pivot versus having them in the Joe Young end of bench until they move to China role.

I'm also skeptical that Warren is better at SF even with his defense snd rebounding issues.


I mean, as a defensive focused team, it’s nice to have someone that can defend the 4 on occasion. Ideally, Alize develops into that and that’s be great. But if Alize is in foul trouble during one game of one of those 16 games where Myles or Dom are out? Are we waving the white flag? Is Simon likely to sign off on a plan where we sacrifice chances at the playoffs and another couple home games of revenue?

Clearly, they have a plan. However, they’ve talked down what we as fans have projected of the plan, so maybe the answer is Alize?


I get the sense that Simon is ok with sacrificing some wins, though with the caveat that he still expects at least 2 home playoff games. With Vic out we really should be in evaluation mode and we are at least with Domas/Myles. Plus I think it's an easy sell right now because of the fact that we could really save some money on depth if guys like Alize and Sumner prove worthy of minutes, but they need to get the opportunities to show that.


I think those two bold items are in complete conflict with each other, though.
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Re: Who Will Be the Odd Men Out? 

Post#40 » by pacers33granger » Thu Aug 1, 2019 4:43 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:
pacers33granger wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
I mean, as a defensive focused team, it’s nice to have someone that can defend the 4 on occasion. Ideally, Alize develops into that and that’s be great. But if Alize is in foul trouble during one game of one of those 16 games where Myles or Dom are out? Are we waving the white flag? Is Simon likely to sign off on a plan where we sacrifice chances at the playoffs and another couple home games of revenue?

Clearly, they have a plan. However, they’ve talked down what we as fans have projected of the plan, so maybe the answer is Alize?


I get the sense that Simon is ok with sacrificing some wins, though with the caveat that he still expects at least 2 home playoff games. With Vic out we really should be in evaluation mode and we are at least with Domas/Myles. Plus I think it's an easy sell right now because of the fact that we could really save some money on depth if guys like Alize and Sumner prove worthy of minutes, but they need to get the opportunities to show that.


I think those two bold items are in complete conflict with each other, though.


Not really. We almost certainly will not be a home playoff team and also will not be on the outside of the playoffs looking in barring some extraordinary circumstances on either side. Clearly his mandate is always to make the playoffs and if he wasn't okay taking a small step back we would not have let Bogie or Thad walk, would not be likely giving rotation minutes to Holiday/Goga/Sumner, and would not have had the amount of roster turnover we did.

This is going to be a bumpy year and is much more of a retool year than some want to admit. Unless we end up like the Nash Suns coming out of nowhere, we've sacrificed some wins already with the moves that have been made.

Ultimately I just don't get the point of playing mediocre (at best) vets like Doug and Justin Holiday over guys we want to develop but haven't really given a chance to develop. Doug, Justin, etc. aren't adding any wins and if the young guys really flounder we can just insert one of the vets at that point.

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