Boston Offseason Review
Key Losses:
Kyrie Irving
Al Horford
Terry Rozier
Marcus Morris
Aron Baynes
Losses:
Guerschon Yabusel
Random mins
Draft:
14; Romeo Langford
22: Grant Williams
33: Carson Edwards
51: Tremont Waters
Trades:
(With Phoenix) Aron Baynes, Ty Jerome for Milwaukee 2020 1st
(With Charlotte) Scary Terry (S+T) and 2020 2nd swap for Kemba Irving (S+T) 2020 2nd swap
(With Philly) Matisse Thybulle for Ty Jerome+Carson Edwards
Free Agency:
Kemba Walker (4/$140,790,600)
Daniel Thies (2/$10,000,000)
Brad Wanamaker (1 year/min)
Vincent Poirier (2/$5,125,000)
Enes Kanter (2/$9,772,350)
TACKO FALL (Exhibit 10 deal)
Carson Edwards (rookie deal)
Grant Williams (rookie deal)
Romeo Langford (rookie deal)
Tremont Waters (two-way)
Current Depth Chart: (taken from realgm with reason added in)
PG: Kemba Walker/Carson Edwards/Brad Wanamaker
SG: Marcus Smart/Jaylen Brown/Romeo Langford
SF: Jayson Tatum/Gordon Hayward
PF: Grant Willaims/Daniel Thies/Semi Ojeleye
C: Enes Kanter/Robert Williams/Vincent Poirier
Mamba4Goat's Boston Review
Key Losses:
Well, where to start? They lost so many of their guys that played lots of minutes. Losing Kyrie may hurt their "in a perfect world" ceiling, but I think Kemba is a better fit so I'm not sweating that one. Kyrie was a locker room nightmare and as talented as he is, he isn't the most ideal fit for the team. I honestly preferred the Kyrie-less playoff Celtics over the Kyrie-led Celtics but that sample size may be a cop out.
Losing Horford is massive for them. I'm high on Williams^2 but their's a huge void on their lineup for a defensive anchor big man/glue guy who excels at literally everything and can do no wrong (I'm banning you if you disagree with me on this) It hurts even more that Horford went to one of the other best teams in the East. Between the spacing Horford gave, the reliability and steady hand he gave, and the underrated everything else that didn't show up on the box score.Spoiler:
I imagine that there's a certain Dallas fan mod that is going to have some words for me on this, but I think Rozier if given the full reigns and starting role that he would do well. I think that if they wouldn't have got Kemba and resigned Rozier, even on this deal, that they would be in a decent position still. However, getting a star point guard makes him easier to lose.
Morris may hurt a little bit, but I think Grant Williams will give Boston most of his best qualities minus the scoring. That being said, as we'll see below I'm irrationally high on Grant.
Baynes also hurts a lot as they now have to rely heavily on Robert Williams for center defense and I'm not sure if he's quite ready yet.
Losses:
Yabs was the only one that came to my mind but it's not really a loss. I honestly don't have much for this. Sorry, guys! I will quickly give a shout out to the ghost of Shane Larkin and say that I wish he was still on the roster and I am still hoping he comes back to the league at some point.
Draft:
I'm not really sure what to think of Langford, I wish they would've taken NAW here but I'm a lowly dreamer. I like the pick regardless and this seems like a BPA pick and I can't fault them for that as they had all the picks that they could hope for. Gotta take some swings, right? He'll be a nice sixth man kinda taking Rozier's role a bit.
I love the Grant Williams pick. I think he's going to surprise people this season and be the perfect energy guy to kinda help mitigate losing Morris and Horford. He'll be able to space the floor a bit and offer some scoring while giving them hustle which this team kinda lacked at times last season. Just having at least one guy like that can be infectious and they already have Smart having another guy like that (I believe our own Smitty called Williams a PF version of Smart) can hopefully put more of a pep in these guys's step.
Edwards is also a good snag for them. He should be a good fit for the offense in an IT-lite role and I think he should be having an immediate impact as potentially their first PG off the bench (aside from Smart if he still counts or doesn't start at SG).
Lastly, I think Waters has 3rd guard ability and should stay with the team as more than a 2-way deal. I wouldn't be upset if Wanamaker is the odd man out and their PG rotation is Kemba/Edwards/Waters and Waters is the Larkin to Edward's Rozier.
Trades:
I know that losing Baynes as a center hurts a lot and they don't really have anyone replacing what he brings but they got the Milwaukee 1st out of this and I consider that a huge win.
I love Thybulle and I think letting Philly get him could hurt a lot, but since they got Edwards and the later pick that they gave up with Baynes to get the Milwaukee 1st I don't hate it too much.
Free Agency:
I'll address the elephant in the room right away, I will be starting a petition if Tacko doesn't make the team. I am glad that they got to snag him up and he had a decent SL and I think he ends up getting burn later on in the season (up to 10mpg) and helps Boston on the defensive end a lot.
Kemba was a home run. Remember when Boston wasn't really seen as a FA destination and everyone was going crazy when they signed Hayward? Getting a star PG in FA after their star PG left is huge. He brings back a lot of what Kyrie brought without the headache of Kyrie being Kyrie and less injury-proneness. I genuinely think he'll make this teams floor higher and will do better than if Kyrie would've stayed (although, again Kyrie-led team had a "in a perfect world" higher ceiling).
As I alluded to earlier, I think their rookie PG's could start eating into Wanamaker's minutes right away (and I am hoping and praying that Larkin comes back) but I am glad that they got him back regardless.
Kanter's signing was a product of trying to grab the best guy on the market that they could afford and while I do like it, I kinda wish they would've tried poaching Noel away from OKC when they gutting their roster but if that wasn't achievable then Kanter works. He gives them a starting level talent and a veteran who at least knows the game while Williams grows and develops.
I am going to be honest, I don't know anything about Poirier
I also love getting Thies back. He gives them another reliable floor spacing big that kinda does a little bit of a lot of things okayly.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from realgm with reason added in)
Having a reliable and proven backup point guard (unless we're giving Smart that title) would've been nice, but I'm not nit-picking too much on that. They have a lot of centers but none that really jump out at you while having a glut of wings. I''m still pretty pro-Brown for Sabonis though.
Needs:
As stated above, reliable backup point guard and NBA level centers. I do like their roster and think a lot of guys play into these roles and I think they may need one mid-season small adjustment but they'll be okay.
Additional Thoughts:
There is sooooooooooooo much addition by subtraction here that it is crazy. They lost a ton of talent but losing Morris, Rozier, and Kyrie will ultimately make them a lot better as a team and their chemistry will skyrocket. It only takes one bad apple to ruin things, but as long as Hayward can play into the minutes he's force fed or he isn't force fed undeserved minute then this team will improve dramatically even with the loss of talent. I can honestly say that I am excited for them. I also think either Edwards or Williams will be on the rookie 2nd team.
Projected Win/Loss: 55-27
I am of the "Hayward will return to all-star level" school of thought. I think this team meshes a lot better and despite their 2nd biggest FA signing and 2 of their rookie's being scorers, giving Tatum/Brown more opportunity and a bigger role on offense will help them a lot.
Off-Season Grade: [u] B
Losing Horford hurts a lot but I love the rest of their off season aside from Kanter being their starting center.
HartfordWhalers wrote: HW's Boston Offseason Review
[u]Key Losses:
Kyrie Irving
Al Horford
Irving is a talented player. Losing him for nothing hurts. hat said, I think enough has been said on how evident it was that it was time to move on. And swapping Kemba for Kyrie wasn't going to be much of a step back especially when chemistry gets involved.
But Horford is a huge loss, and a loss to a team that is now squarely above the Celtics in the East pecking order.
RPM had the following takes on the Celtics losses:
18 Al Horford, C 1.77 2.66 4.43
20 Kyrie Irving, PG 3.77 0.46 4.23
{Apparently needed disclaimer: In no way am I saying RPM is flawless or should be taken word for word on every player. However, pretending like it isn't informative would be at least as foolish}
We can spin the loss of Horford as a rebuilding move and he is older and should be declining, but he loss of Horford is a huge loss for a team hat is still trying to win now as well as in the future.
So much of what has defined the past Boston teams has been a defense that is consistently top 5 in the league, and shuts down both opposing bigs as well as having league leading 3 point defense. Next year without Horford will be a fascinating test if it is system or player driven result, but I would expect some fall back.
Before Horford walked I saw a scenario where the Kemba/Kyrie swap worked out positively, and Boston got in on a Capela trade, and the team could have such a strong defensive identity and enough clutch scoring that I wouldn't rule out sneaking into a Finals. Now, I think the ceiling is a second round exit and
Losses:
Terry Rozier
Marcus Morris
Aron Baynes
Guerschon Yabusel
Random mins
I have Morris and Rozier as just losses. Rozier suffers from not being good. Morris suffers from being fully replaceable. Again, pulling off rpm:
Morris was the 50th best pf (0.31 -1.17 -0.86)
Rozier was the 42nd best pg (-0.91 -0.04 -0.95)
At some point you do need to play someone, and if the guy playing backup minutes is now the 74h best pf, then you will have a loss. And depth has value. But neither of these guys have elite skills or irreplaceable impacts.
Baynes looks more of a key loss, but he is still a backup center in a league with an abundance of them.
Draft:
14; Romeo Langford
22: Grant Williams
33: Carson Edwards
51: Tremont Waters
Wow, that Sacramento pick turned out anti-climatic. That said, I really like the pick of Romeo and he could be the perfect long term pairing with Tatum if between them they improve from long range.
Romeo has great size, intriguing fundamentals and just needs a shot. He is young and has a lot of upside for a pick at 14.
Grant Williams looks like he perfect replacement to Marcus Morris; an All American with great peripheral stats (rebounds steals assists blocks) and a rapidly improving shot from the line.
It is easy to joke that ROmeo and Williams are all more sf's, but they do look like they can slot better as a sg (that cannot shoot) and a pf (with a bit of an undersize).
These are fine positional fits in isolation, but they beg for:
A pg with good 3 point shooting
A sf with good 3 point shooting
A center with good size and defensively fundamentals
Which means they aren't as great fits with the current roster as would be liked. But you don't draft for fit *this* year. I like both picks a lot.
Carson is the Rozier replacement. Boston basically filled in their holes assuming Horford was returning. If they had known he really was gone at this point, I think they might have taken a developmental big here to compete with Williams, but then they found one in Tacko so I find the draft well performed given what they had.
Trades:
(With Philly) #20 (Matisse Thybulle) for #24 (Ty Jerome) + #33 (Carson Edwards)
(With Phoenix) Aron Baynes, #24 (Ty Jerome) for Milwaukee 2020 1st
(With Charlotte) Scary Terry (S+T) and 2020 2nd (if 54-60, else nothing) for Kemba Irving (S+T) 2020 2nd (worst of NYK/BKN)
So, Boston knew Philly wanted Thybulle and leveraged them for a very high 2nd, while still getting a guy they wanted at 22. Well done, although more the type of return you would associate with that trade prior to the draft then a hostage situation (like Philly did to Orlando with Payton).
The Baynes and #24 for Milwaukee pick is a fair trade. Boston probably moves back but they get to move a first back a year. and cleared salary they thought they might need to.
And then Boston got a Nets second, which is better than the protected pick they sent out for a free agent they absolutely should not match.
Small wins all the way around, or a small loss on the Phoenix deal but one they needed to make s as not to have 4-5 rookies.
Free Agency:
Kemba was the perfect Kyrie replacement. Love the move. Sure, it isn't a rebuild move, but why would they? And if they need to, I'm not worried about it being bad money next year when they could flip Kemba to the lakers for a 1st.
On the other hand, I don't know how best to describe going from Horford to Kanter. Kanter is talented. He gets unfairly maligned. And that is a good price for him. But Boston's defense took an enormous hit, and free agency didn't fix that at all. Still it seems unfair to penalize the team for that in free agency... although I would have loved a Noel type deal especially if short on years.
Current Depth Chart:
Is Center more scary than power forward, despite listing a rookie taken after 20?
Needs:
So, lots of question marks.
Interior defense.
Outside shooting.
Outside shooting.
NBA readiness of the rookies.
Outside shooting.
Interior defense.
Additional Thoughts:
Horford leaving really screwed up what otherwise would have been a perfect handling of what they had. Not the best offseason in terms of adding superstars or unexpected blockbusters. But just solid plus across the board. Could hey have offered Horford a 4 year max guaranteed and stayed more competitive in the short run? Maybe. But then maybe Boston pulls off the not so surprising Steven Adams trade and actually is better off in the long run having let Horford walk.
We all agree there should be a Steven Adams trade right? I vote yes. Boston is going to stay near 50 wins and try and look good for the next Kemba/Kyrie/etc. If they can do that better they should.
Projected Win/Loss: 47 wins.
Same system, some new faces. Should be a team that plays tough every night and has an All star (Kemba). so 47-49 was where I had them and I went the bottom range based off the outside shooting. But watch them do a small trade and win 51.
Off-Season Grade: B+
Went back and forth on A- or B+. Settled on the B+ but I feel like that undersold that I really liked the moves they did make.
SmartWentCrazy wrote:SmartWentCrazy Review
Key Losses:
Kyrie is more talented than Kemba, but Kemba should largely replace his overall impact. Losing Morris hurts, but not significantly moving forward. Losing Rozier was addition by subtraction.
Losing Horford is a killer though. He’s so good and his defense, spacing and playmaking will be sorely missed.
Losses:
Yabusele shouldve never had his option picked up to begin with. I demerit the Celtics for having to stretch his contract meaninglessly.
Draft:
Langford is an upside play— I’m not the biggest fan of his, but he was a former too recruit and I’m intrigued by his potential. Grant Williams is just a very solid role player— I can see him being an RPM darling one day. He’ll never be a star, but he should have an 8-10 year career. Edwards can shoot the hell out of the ball and should have a long career as well. He’s very stout and I was surprised by his defensive effort in summer league. Waters is JAG, IMO. I’ll include Tacko here too— his pure size is interesting but his best case scenario is to be a bit player.
The team did a great job sniffing out Philly’s plan and extorting them as well. Overall, it was a pretty good draft IMO.
Trades:
The Philly trade was very solid. The Phoenix trade was okay— it was nice to delay the first, but dumping Baynes will hurt them next year.
Free Agency:
Getting Kemba was an awesome recovery. Kanter— not so much. Personally would've preferred if they went a bit more defense focused for the position [Looney or Vonleh feel like they wouldve been better fits]. Nothing else was particularly noteworthy.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from realgm with reason added in)
Theyre very solid with respect to their wings and guards, but they probably have the worst big man situation out of any team hoping to make a run in the playoffs. It will be their downfall this season.
Needs:
They need bigs in the worst way
Additional Thoughts:
After a year of falling flat on their face and being an entirely miserable bunch of players, the team should be significantly more enjoyable this season. They wont compete for a title, but they should be infinitely more fun to watch.
Projected Win/Loss: __51-31__
The team is built to overachieve in the regular season. I could easily see them winning enough to finish in the top 2 for the conference. But they're ceiling is the second round.
Off-Season Grade: D+
Kemba largely offsets the Kyrie loss. Not trading for AD was the right move. They did well in the draft. But losing Horford was a real killer and their offseason grade should reflect as such.
pacers33granger wrote: Pacers33granger's Boston Offseason Review
Key Losses:
I may be the minority here, but I only have Kyrie, Horford, and Baynes as key losses. Some other guys provided a lot of box score production, but I'm not sold it was that positive. And personally the only one I'd be concerned about here is Horford, which is really a monumental loss for a team that was already short on bigs. I have Kemba as an upgrade to Kyrie and Baynes as replacement level.
Losses:
Yabs was sunk cost the second he was drafted and was just a waste overall. The roster spot is worth more imo. Rozier/Morris put up numbers, but I have them as net negatives overall. Boston will be better for not having the egos in the locker room and on the court.
Draft:
Langford was good value where he was drafted, though I think Boston could have really used Goga (I say this not as a fan of Indy but as someone who wonders why Ainge refuses to draft any semblance of a big who may be ready to contribute). Williams looks like he could be a contributor and Edwards was really good value.
Trades:
Hard to hate anything here. Ainge got a pick for sending Rozier on an abysmal contract to Charlotte for no reason, kicked the can down the road for Baynes, and picked up Edwards basically for free just because they knew Philly's plans.
Free Agency:
Walker was a coup. Ainge ended up picking up the pieces of Kyrie and came out ahead. Losing Horford still hurts them the most, but nothing he could do about that. After Walker, I'm not a fan of the signings. Theis should be a minimum guy, Poirier is an unknown, and Wanamaker is whatever. Kanter is the one I have the most issue with though. Very talented, but he offers nothing towards what Boston needed from their bigs and again compounds issues with not enough shots to go around. Yeah he played an admirable role in Portland's playoff run, but the guy isn't that good overall.
Final thoughts
Ainge did a great job of pivoting, though I wonder how much was his actual doing versus Kemba picking Boston. The rest I'm not enamored with. Nonetheless I'd still give their offseason a B+ as they started it knowing they were losing their all star PG and learning quickly they were losing their all star C, but came out of it well and likely will win more games. I will say I wish Ainge would pick a lane as the whole rebuild and contend has kind of failed, though there's no way he could say no to Kemba for free.
Maybe I just am too high on the C's. (between you and me, I'm a closet Celtics fan)
