CJ McCollum has agreed to a three-year, $100 million contract extension

[BlazersBroncos]

The cap went up 7M this offseason, and is projected to go up 9M next offseason. Taking the middle figure of 8M and assuming that is the increase to take place the 2021 offseason, the cap is likely to be around 126M in 2021/22.

This means CJ is taking up 26% of our cap once the extension hits. I believe that is totally reasonable. Not a unreal value like Nurkic, but nowhere near a bad contract either IMO. The league has moved even further towards a MAX or MIN type salary system. Guys like CJ get offered MAX deals on the market. He would be a 40M per season guy if we waited. We almost certainly saved about 7M AV on this deal. It was a smart move for winning now, and moving CJ in the future. A lot easier to move a guy at 33M than 40M, especially when 33M is about market value for said guy.

We should have no issue with this extension. This is market value for the 2019 offseason and will be seen as below market value when guys like Victor Oladipo and Jrue Holiday are getting 40M AV offers in 2021. That number may sound nuts, but its going to happen.

[PDXKnight]

Probably fair value I suppose. I was afraid he’d get closer to 50 mil a year which would’ve put us in salary gahenna. I think if he doesn’t regress this looks like a value contact when all is said and done

his max was going to be in the 40M/year range, not 50M. Dame is 'only' at 49M with a super-max

33M/year puts Dame/CJ at 82M year. That's not as bad as the possible 88-90M a year, but it's still high

more significantly it locks the Blazers to Dame/CJ as their top-2 (based on salary). I don't think a top-2 of Dame/CJ will ever win a title. But the way salaries are going, CJ's contract would still be tradeable in those 3 years of the extension. Right now, I doubt any team, other than one led by Olshey, would want to commit to 5 years of CJ at over 30M a year

I have to think there’s teams out there who would spend on cj if he hit free agency especially if they started running out of options. I like that it’s 3 years rather than 4 though, that lessens the risk a bit

[GreenRiddler]

People gonna overreact. Dame and CJ are this franchise. They are gonna get paid as such.

[GreenRiddler]

oof.... i mean i know their hands were tied but i just dont understand the massive overpay coming off a down year... he's not a guy that will age well either at his size... really puts the criticism over a guy who is still nearr the top like CP3's extension into perspective..

It would have made a lot more sense to move him years ago for a piece that fits better. Now they're completley stuck for better or for worse.

At least he's kinda fun to watch, it's not as bad as like the Evan Turner deal or anything.

Can't say I'm a fan of the moves Portland made this off-season at all. But windows close quickly in the current NBA and I cant blame them for keeping a team together that seems to be popular with the fans.

CP3 is 34, C.J. is 27. Paul's contract (at the age of 33) started where C.J.'s will max out (~$35 - $36 million ) and goes up from there, topping out at $44 million when he is 36. Yeah, CP3 is better, but he is injury prone, old and declining - all the while his salary increasing.

I disagree that C.J.'s game won't age well. In fact, I believe the EXACT opposite. His game relies on craftiness and a great handle, not freakish athleticism or quickness. He's one of the least athletic SGs in the league, but still capable of averaging 21 - 23 ppg as a second option.

He started slow last season, but came on really strong in the second half. He has averaged 25 ppg in the playoffs over the last two seasons. He's not a bargain, but he's also not grossly overpaid.

I really thought the original comment was satire.

[GreenRiddler]

Hasn't been selected for an all star game yet but he's still going to earn $33M per year.

NBA where amazing happens.

Saying this makes you look really uninformed as to how Allstars are selected. He would be an all-star every single year if he was in the east.

[GreenRiddler]

Compare that to some other deals this offseason and where they stand in 21/22:

Middleton 35.5M
Harris 35.95M
Murray 31.59M
Butler 36.02M

If you think that CJ will have borderline All Star talent for his 30-33 years, then you are correct that this is a value deal.

Advanced statistics show only a slightly above average player, who is fairly weak defensively, is not a perfect match for Lilard and has peaked two years ago when he was 25.
I think we overpaid a bit, and there was little reason to do it now (except maybe from a team chemistry POV).

Peaked at 25 LOL the CJ rhetoric is almost as bad as American politics.

[GreenRiddler]

People really think CJ had a down year after his play in the playoffs? The best he has ever played in his life. Not to mention his elite level mid-range game got even better this year.

McCollum had a down year--to his high standards-- shooting threes in regular season. That's it.

[GreenRiddler]

5 more years to see people hate on McCollumand get proven wrong. *Chef kiss. Love to see it.

[Wizenheimer]

Hasn't been selected for an all star game yet but he's still going to earn $33M per year.

NBA where amazing happens.

Put CJ in the East and he's a 3 time All Star!

Demar Derozan
Ben Simmons
Kyrie Irving
Jimmy Butler
Khris Middleton
Victor Oladipo
Bradley Beal
John Wall
Kemba Walker
Eric Bledsoe
Isaiah Thomas
Zach Lavine
Kyle Lowry
D'Angleo Russell

CJ would have/had to beat out 8-10 of those guys three times. Seems next to impossible.

[wjun15]

oof.... i mean i know their hands were tied but i just dont understand the massive overpay coming off a down year... he's not a guy that will age well either at his size... really puts the criticism over a guy who is still nearr the top like CP3's extension into perspective..

It would have made a lot more sense to move him years ago for a piece that fits better. Now they're completley stuck for better or for worse.

At least he's kinda fun to watch, it's not as bad as like the Evan Turner deal or anything.

Can't say I'm a fan of the moves Portland made this off-season at all. But windows close quickly in the current NBA and I cant blame them for keeping a team together that seems to be popular with the fans.

Lol @ "will not age well". Hes exactly the type of player that will age will because all of his production comes from craftiness and skill not athleticism. If anything Dame will not age well because he relies on explosion and his first step.

[wjun15]

Hasn't been selected for an all star game yet but he's still going to earn $33M per year.

NBA where amazing happens.

yeah thats how the nba is now,

Guys like Middleton whos not an all star in the west getting paid more.
Jamal Murray (inconsistent and overhyped) getting crazy money
etc...

[Klinky]

Can't see why people would be upset over this deal. Just had the best post-season in 19 years. The Lillard & CJ era is not a bad era to be in, and likely the best we can muster with our small market. Who else is realistically going to come into Portland and give us the same performance, effort, and commitment for the same price? People thinking we're prime targets for the Davises or Leonards of the league are delusional. If this off season has taught us anything, it's that big markets have a big advantage when it comes to star talent.

[Sinobas]

CJ and Dame carried us to the WCF last year....but was that just a hot streak? Overall, with them leading us as a tandem, we've been really mediocre. I still think we may yet trade him for a front court player and promote Simons to his spot.

CJ and Dame are going to be taking up 75% of our cap space by themselves. So getting under the cap will be impossible. We're going to have to rely on using bird rights to retain guys, but then will have to deal with luxury tax issues. But if we stick to paying guys what they're WORTH, going forward, we could be ok.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Hasn't been selected for an all star game yet but he's still going to earn $33M per year.

NBA where amazing happens.

Put CJ in the East and he's a 3 time All Star!

Demar Derozan
Ben Simmons
Kyrie Irving
Jimmy Butler
Khris Middleton
Victor Oladipo
Bradley Beal
John Wall
Kemba Walker
Eric Bledsoe
Isaiah Thomas
Zach Lavine
Kyle Lowry
D'Angleo Russell

CJ would have/had to beat out 8-10 of those guys three times. Seems next to impossible.

CJ in the East would hve feasted on the competition and his stats would have been even better. I pulled the number 3 out of my ass and of course you just had to jump on it. I think you get my point. CJ would be an all Star in the East. Disagree if you want, but please... stay out of my ass!

[mighty_duck]

Peaked at 25 LOL the CJ rhetoric is almost as bad as American politics.

Practically every single advanced stat supports that claim. You can waive off some of them, but ignoring all of them just makes you ignorant.

Age PER TS% WS WS/48 BPM VORP
22 9 0.521 0.2 0.019 -4.1 -0.3
23 13.1 0.534 1.8 0.089 -0.7 0.3
24 17.7 0.544 6 0.104 0.4 1.7
25 19.9 0.585 7.6 0.131 1 2.1
26 17 0.536 6.6 0.108 0.4 1.8
27 17 0.553 5.6 0.114 0.3 1.3

[BNM]

Peaked at 25 LOL the CJ rhetoric is almost as bad as American politics.

Practically every single advanced stat supports that claim. You can waive off some of them, but ignoring all of them just makes you ignorant.

Age PER TS% WS WS/48 BPM VORP
22 9 0.521 0.2 0.019 -4.1 -0.3
23 13.1 0.534 1.8 0.089 -0.7 0.3
24 17.7 0.544 6 0.104 0.4 1.7
25 19.9 0.585 7.6 0.131 1 2.1
26 17 0.536 6.6 0.108 0.4 1.8
27 17 0.553 5.6 0.114 0.3 1.3

Just curious what those stats were like over the last half of the season last year. He got off to a terrible start and was in a serious shooting slump until January when he seemed to really turn things around. I don't have the month by month advanced stats, but his 3-point shooting, apg, rpg were much better after December 30 than before and his USG% was actually down. So, much more efficient and productive in his last 35 games than his first 35.

First 35 games:
FG% = .452
3FG% = .323
rpg = 3.8
apg = 2.5
pts = 729
FGA = 634

Last 35 games:
FG% = .466
3FG% = .414
rpg = 4.2
apg = 3.4
pts = 739
FGA = 609

While some of those increases may not look all that significant, the fact is he improved his game in all ways and was much more efficient over the last 35 games than the first 35. He scored more on fewer shots/possessions, dished out significantly more assists (118 vs. 89) and got more rebounds. Those 35 games were the most productive/efficient he's been since 2016-17. In fact, even if you include his poor shooting over the first 35 games, his 2FG% in 2018-19 was exactly the same (.506) as it was in 2016-17. The big difference was the poor 3FG shooting over those first 35 games. If he can keep his 3FG% in the same .414 ballpark as it was over the last 35 games, he's pretty much the same player he was in 2016-17.

And, he's still not 28 and doesn't rely on explosive athleticism to get his shots. Perhaps those last 35 games were a "hot streak" or an anomaly, but it's also just as likely the .323 3FG% over the first 35 games was the anomaly, as that is uncharacteristically low for him. He has also decreased his TOVs four seasons in a row. Will he ever get back to being the same player he was in 2016-17? I don't think he's really that far off, at least not during the second half of last season. He seems to work on his game during the off season and take pride in his play. So, while nothing is guaranteed, I could definitely see it happening. He doesn't seem like the type who gets paid and them stops working on his game.

[dunlop212]

I'm coming around to thinking that this is another example of NO bidding against himself. I would want another year of seeing what kind of players Collins and Simons are. This five year contract covers extension years for Collins, Nurk, and Simons. Maybe the owner has told NO he can give max contracts to everyone, but otherwise it looks like a bad move.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Peaked at 25 LOL the CJ rhetoric is almost as bad as American politics.

Practically every single advanced stat supports that claim. You can waive off some of them, but ignoring all of them just makes you ignorant.

Age PER TS% WS WS/48 BPM VORP
22 9 0.521 0.2 0.019 -4.1 -0.3
23 13.1 0.534 1.8 0.089 -0.7 0.3
24 17.7 0.544 6 0.104 0.4 1.7
25 19.9 0.585 7.6 0.131 1 2.1
26 17 0.536 6.6 0.108 0.4 1.8
27 17 0.553 5.6 0.114 0.3 1.3

Yet from a purely stats perspective 25 was one of his worst playoffs and 26 was his best playoffs while we all should know this last post-season was by far his most meaningful.

I think its qualitatively pretty silly to say he peaked at 25. Everyone goes through statistical variation. CJ is not declining in any real meaningful way so using stats in this way is kind of missing the forest for the trees.

[BNM]

I'm coming around to thinking that this is another example of NO bidding against himself. I would want another year of seeing what kind of players Collins and Simons are. This five year contract covers extension years for Collins, Nurk, and Simons. Maybe the owner has told NO he can give max contracts to everyone, but otherwise it looks like a bad move.

It's not a max contract. It's $14 million below the max he was eligible to receive ($114 million over 3 years).

And, had Neil waited that max amount would have increased and so would the market value for C.J. as the cap is going up by about $8 - $9 million a year. The absolute worst case scenario would have been allowing C.J. to become an RFA and then being faced with matching a stupid offer or letting him walk for nothing. Better to lock him up now before the price goes up.

[soobias]

i know my opinion might not be the popular opinion , but like some of you im old school.
i would rather pay 2 players ( say like hood,bazemore types then to lock up over 30m for 1 player thats not a 2way player.
thats just me.
so our backcourt will be like 60% of our cap for the near future ? idk im asking.. either way to me its a lot.
from my eye test of watching a lot of games if you dont have a Lebron or Harden on your team its all about player and ball movement.
imho i wish we had a 3 or 4 that can push the ball up kinda like hoe dramond iggy KD did for GS.
so i say all that to say if i had my way i'de rather have tobias on this team then cj.

dame
hood
baze
tobias
whiteside/nurk

i like that...
go a head blast me away lol


also i want to add if things keep going the way they are cj will go down in history as the highest paid non all star.lmao