Stepien article on Wendell Carter

[Senor Chang]

Not much to add to the already great thread but I always thought the Horford comp was selling him a bit short (at least after watching him defensively the first part of the year). Wendell has the potential to be an elite rim protector and guy that can switch on the perimeter while also being an efficient if not volume heavy scorer. He might not ever come into his own offensively but his defensive floor, given good health, seems All Defense 3rd team and that's his floor. Ceiling would be DPOY.

Yes i always felt the Al Horford comparisons are selling him short. Al has a 7'1" winspan compared to WCJ's 7'4.5 wingspan. Not only that but it took Al 8 years to attempt as many 3 pointers as WCJ did his rookie year. Albeit Wendell shot it at an 18% clip and taking those shots were more frowned apon when Horford was coming into his own. This season will give us a clearer picture into which direction WCJ is heading.

[sco]

Not much to add to the already great thread but I always thought the Horford comp was selling him a bit short (at least after watching him defensively the first part of the year). Wendell has the potential to be an elite rim protector and guy that can switch on the perimeter while also being an efficient if not volume heavy scorer. He might not ever come into his own offensively but his defensive floor, given good health, seems All Defense 3rd team and that's his floor. Ceiling would be DPOY.

Yes i always felt the Al Horford comparisons are selling him short. Al has a 7'1" winspan compared to WCJ's 7'4.5 wingspan. Not only that but it took Al 8 years to attempt as many 3 pointers as WCJ did his rookie year. Albeit Wendell shot it at an 18% clip and taking those shots were more frowned apon when Horford was coming into his own. This season will give us a clearer picture into which direction WCJ is heading.

Yeah, I get that Horford became a 3pt threat late in his career, but Horford was a multi-time All-star. I think folks are unrealistic to assume that WCJ will be even a 1 time all-star.

[madvillian]

Not much to add to the already great thread but I always thought the Horford comp was selling him a bit short (at least after watching him defensively the first part of the year). Wendell has the potential to be an elite rim protector and guy that can switch on the perimeter while also being an efficient if not volume heavy scorer. He might not ever come into his own offensively but his defensive floor, given good health, seems All Defense 3rd team and that's his floor. Ceiling would be DPOY.

Yes i always felt the Al Horford comparisons are selling him short. Al has a 7'1" winspan compared to WCJ's 7'4.5 wingspan. Not only that but it took Al 8 years to attempt as many 3 pointers as WCJ did his rookie year. Albeit Wendell shot it at an 18% clip and taking those shots were more frowned apon when Horford was coming into his own. This season will give us a clearer picture into which direction WCJ is heading.

Yeah, I get that Horford became a 3pt threat late in his career, but Horford was a multi-time All-star. I think folks are unrealistic to assume that WCJ will be even a 1 time all-star.

I kinda just always assume the "comp" is the best case. Wendell's best case is a much better player than Horford, who was a Luol Deng type All-Star in his peak. A top 30 guy sure, nice player, but Wendell could be a top 15 player imo in his best case. Median case is probably top 60 type. Worst case probably borderline starter if he doesn't develop at all and continues to struggle to find his role offensively and continues to have foul problems. Seems pretty unlikely but you never know.

[kingkirk]

I get scared every time I start liking him too much. I see what you see, but I worry about a few things:

1) His lack of confidence at times...likely just a 19 year old rookie thing, but that's what I saw.
2) His lack of size against the best bigs.
3) His shot, despite good form, never materializing

Those are jumpable hurdles, but I gotta see him make jumps on those this season.

I understand all this and they have crossed my mind too, but I think there's some easy counters to all these points where I'm comfortable in feeling these issues will be gone very soon, assuming he's put in a position and role that enables his best skills.

[BigRedDog]

Zwicker is one of the best ball heads in the business to listen to, and he's always been super high on Carter. This is a must read.

Agreed that was a good read. Zwicker has a nice understanding of the game, which is something most of the talking heads out there know absolutely nothing about...

I was high on WCJ coming out of college. In fact, I had him as a better pro (long term) than Bagley. And I Still believe that is the case after watching their rookie seasons.

WCJ projects as a really good defender. And he's a rebounder. And he showed flashes of being able to turn into a perimeter oriented big man. Guy is young, raw, and unpolished. But love his length, athleticism, and IQ.

[kingkirk]

Not much to add to the already great thread but I always thought the Horford comp was selling him a bit short (at least after watching him defensively the first part of the year). Wendell has the potential to be an elite rim protector and guy that can switch on the perimeter while also being an efficient if not volume heavy scorer. He might not ever come into his own offensively but his defensive floor, given good health, seems All Defense 3rd team and that's his floor. Ceiling would be DPOY.

Yes i always felt the Al Horford comparisons are selling him short. Al has a 7'1" winspan compared to WCJ's 7'4.5 wingspan. Not only that but it took Al 8 years to attempt as many 3 pointers as WCJ did his rookie year. Albeit Wendell shot it at an 18% clip and taking those shots were more frowned apon when Horford was coming into his own. This season will give us a clearer picture into which direction WCJ is heading.

Different time, different league.

Lauri Markkanen attempted 401 3PA in his rookie season. Dirk Nowitzki never had a season in his career with more than 400 3PA.

[kingkirk]

Zwicker is one of the best ball heads in the business to listen to, and he's always been super high on Carter. This is a must read.

Agreed that was a good read. Zwicker has a nice understanding of the game, which is something most of the talking heads out there know absolutely nothing about...

I was high on WCJ coming out of college. In fact, I had him as a better pro (long term) than Bagley. And I Still believe that is the case after watching their rookie seasons.

WCJ projects as a really good defender. And he's a rebounder. And he showed flashes of being able to turn into a perimeter oriented big man. Guy is young, raw, and unpolished. But love his length, athleticism, and IQ.

See, I disagree with this. The touch that dude had on some of his attempts last season is something you rarely see from a 19-year-old big. The finesse within his passing game, not to mention the IQ he has in place to even recognise the read, are skills way beyond his age.

I'm usually the 'let's wait and see with these kids' kind of conservative guy when it comes to projecting players, but I'm all in on Wendell, for the future, but also wanting to point out that it was his team and coach, not necessarily himself, that has allowed him to go under the radar here.

[PaKii94]

Zwicker is one of the best ball heads in the business to listen to, and he's always been super high on Carter. This is a must read.

Agreed that was a good read. Zwicker has a nice understanding of the game, which is something most of the talking heads out there know absolutely nothing about...

I was high on WCJ coming out of college. In fact, I had him as a better pro (long term) than Bagley. And I Still believe that is the case after watching their rookie seasons.

WCJ projects as a really good defender. And he's a rebounder. And he showed flashes of being able to turn into a perimeter oriented big man. Guy is young, raw, and unpolished. But love his length, athleticism, and IQ.

See, I disagree with this. The touch that dude had on some of his attempts last season is something you rarely see from a 19-year-old big. The finesse within his passing game, not to mention the IQ he has in place to even recognise the read, are skills way beyond his age.

I'm usually the 'let's wait and see with these kids' kind of conservative guy when it comes to projecting players, but I'm all in on Wendell, for the future, but also wanting to point out that it was his team and coach, not necessarily himself, that has allowed him to go under the radar here.

You didn't even mention the advanced IQ on the defensive end that he showed

[BigRedDog]

Zwicker is one of the best ball heads in the business to listen to, and he's always been super high on Carter. This is a must read.

Agreed that was a good read. Zwicker has a nice understanding of the game, which is something most of the talking heads out there know absolutely nothing about...

I was high on WCJ coming out of college. In fact, I had him as a better pro (long term) than Bagley. And I Still believe that is the case after watching their rookie seasons.

WCJ projects as a really good defender. And he's a rebounder. And he showed flashes of being able to turn into a perimeter oriented big man. Guy is young, raw, and unpolished. But love his length, athleticism, and IQ.

See, I disagree with this. The touch that dude had on some of his attempts last season is something you rarely see from a 19-year-old big. The finesse within his passing game, not to mention the IQ he has in place to even recognise the read, are skills way beyond his age.

I'm usually the 'let's wait and see with these kids' kind of conservative guy when it comes to projecting players, but I'm all in on Wendell, for the future, but also wanting to point out that it was his team and coach, not necessarily himself, that has allowed him to go under the radar here.

I'm not really sure how you cold disagree with me on that point. He showed some serious potential last year, but he still sucked last year relative to the average NBA player. Guy's 19 so that was no surprise. But he was inarguably an unpolished offensive player. The guy Couldn't even shoot...

[GimmeDat]

I think rookie shooting %'s are not a great indicator of future success. Gary Harris shot 20% on over 100 attempts his rookie season (just one example I can think of off the top of my head).

WCJ is somewhat unproven in the sense that his 40% from 3 for Duke was on a small sample and he had some bad misses, but the form is extremely promising and he has promising % indicators at prior levels and shot 80% from FT his rookie season as well. I think all those things matter a lot more than how many 3's he actually made on a 32 shot sample size his rookie season.

He's not there, but there's enough things to suggest he can make a big jump as a shooter this upcoming season. That will need to mean an improvement in both competency and confidence. But I feel good about the potential of him achieving that.

[BigRedDog]

I think rookie shooting %'s are not a great indicator of future success. Gary Harris shot 20% on over 100 attempts his rookie season (just one example I can think of off the top of my head).

WCJ is somewhat unproven in the sense that his 40% from 3 for Duke was on a small sample and he had some bad misses, but the form is extremely promising and he has promising % indicators at prior levels and shot 80% from FT his rookie season as well. I think all those things matter a lot more than how many 3's he actually made on a 32 shot sample size his rookie season.

He's not there, but there's enough things to suggest he can make a big jump as a shooter this upcoming season. That will need to mean an improvement in both competency and confidence. But I feel good about the potential of him achieving that.

Okay, so you're agreeing that he was incredibly raw...and nowhere near his final potential.

Beyond that... i dont understand the post in here about "whispers of whether or not Lauri/WCJ can play together" and comparing them to Vince Carter/TMAC and Kobe/Shaq? Huh?

WCJ projects as a low usage offensive player and there's certainly an argument to be made that he never becomes even an average offensive player let alone a good/great/high usage one... Right now he's a defensive big most effective at C which pairs perfectly with an offensive marksman like Lauri who plays better at PF than C... this isn't a "Only one basketball" scenario whatsoever...

[kingkirk]

I'm not really sure how you cold disagree with me on that point. He showed some serious potential last year, but he still sucked last year relative to the average NBA player. Guy's 19 so that was no surprise. But he was inarguably an unpolished offensive player. The guy Couldn't even shoot...

He was an unpolished offensive player with so-so efficiency numbers because he was used in the incorrect role. That is how and why I'm able to disagree with you on this. His offensive touch, feel, and jump shot are works in progress, but they're far better than what his numbers indicate but the shots he took (due to role) weren't the ones that he showcased he can make.

[GimmeDat]

I think rookie shooting %'s are not a great indicator of future success. Gary Harris shot 20% on over 100 attempts his rookie season (just one example I can think of off the top of my head).

WCJ is somewhat unproven in the sense that his 40% from 3 for Duke was on a small sample and he had some bad misses, but the form is extremely promising and he has promising % indicators at prior levels and shot 80% from FT his rookie season as well. I think all those things matter a lot more than how many 3's he actually made on a 32 shot sample size his rookie season.

He's not there, but there's enough things to suggest he can make a big jump as a shooter this upcoming season. That will need to mean an improvement in both competency and confidence. But I feel good about the potential of him achieving that.

Okay, so you're agreeing that he was incredibly raw...and nowhere near his final potential.

Beyond that... i dont understand the post in here about "whispers of whether or not Lauri/WCJ can play together" and comparing them to Vince Carter/TMAC and Kobe/Shaq? Huh?

WCJ projects as a low usage offensive player and there's certainly an argument to be made that he never becomes even an average offensive player let alone a good/great/high usage one... Right now he's a defensive big most effective at C which pairs perfectly with an offensive marksman like Lauri who plays better at PF than C... this isn't a "Only one basketball" scenario whatsoever...

As a shooter, perhaps. But overall he's pretty damn polished already. He didn't even have a full rookie season either.. only played 44 games. No matter how NBA ready guys are it takes a while for them to get in to the groove and find their feet after the transition. And as Mark said, misutilized.

[kingkirk]

For those who may be interested, I had Cole on the podcast to talk about his breakdown of Wendell.

https://art19.com/shows/bulls-hq/episodes/d5f350fd-ded9-4437-b017-df6d10c9244e

[johnnyvann840]

I'm not really sure how you cold disagree with me on that point. He showed some serious potential last year, but he still sucked last year relative to the average NBA player. Guy's 19 so that was no surprise. But he was inarguably an unpolished offensive player. The guy Couldn't even shoot...

He was an unpolished offensive player with so-so efficiency numbers because he was used in the incorrect role. That is how and why I'm able to disagree with you on this. His offensive touch, feel, and jump shot are works in progress, but they're far better than what his numbers indicate but the shots he took (due to role) weren't the ones that he showcased he can make.

I agree he was misused but the problem is that the Bulls are bringing the same clown of a head coach back that was misusing him. Boylen is the biggest reason I am not as optimistic about this season as most fans here. I just have very little faith that he is the leader, the motivator, the strategist that is going to take this young team to the next level. He's shown nothing that makes me think he is the right person for that job.

[League Circles]

Zwicker is one of the best ball heads in the business to listen to, and he's always been super high on Carter. This is a must read.

Agreed that was a good read. Zwicker has a nice understanding of the game, which is something most of the talking heads out there know absolutely nothing about...

I was high on WCJ coming out of college. In fact, I had him as a better pro (long term) than Bagley. And I Still believe that is the case after watching their rookie seasons.

WCJ projects as a really good defender. And he's a rebounder. And he showed flashes of being able to turn into a perimeter oriented big man. Guy is young, raw, and unpolished. But love his length, athleticism, and IQ.

See, I disagree with this. The touch that dude had on some of his attempts last season is something you rarely see from a 19-year-old big. The finesse within his passing game, not to mention the IQ he has in place to even recognise the read, are skills way beyond his age.

I'm usually the 'let's wait and see with these kids' kind of conservative guy when it comes to projecting players, but I'm all in on Wendell, for the future, but also wanting to point out that it was his team and coach, not necessarily himself, that has allowed him to go under the radar here.

I'm with you. He's far from a lock to be a great player, but he's about as sure of a thing to be a well rounded, above average long term starting C as you will find in this game for a big man of his age. It's why I was always high on him and probably would have drafted him as high as 3rd-5th. In fact the only guy I was sure I'd take over him was Luka.

[johnnyvann840]

Agreed that was a good read. Zwicker has a nice understanding of the game, which is something most of the talking heads out there know absolutely nothing about...

I was high on WCJ coming out of college. In fact, I had him as a better pro (long term) than Bagley. And I Still believe that is the case after watching their rookie seasons.

WCJ projects as a really good defender. And he's a rebounder. And he showed flashes of being able to turn into a perimeter oriented big man. Guy is young, raw, and unpolished. But love his length, athleticism, and IQ.

See, I disagree with this. The touch that dude had on some of his attempts last season is something you rarely see from a 19-year-old big. The finesse within his passing game, not to mention the IQ he has in place to even recognise the read, are skills way beyond his age.

I'm usually the 'let's wait and see with these kids' kind of conservative guy when it comes to projecting players, but I'm all in on Wendell, for the future, but also wanting to point out that it was his team and coach, not necessarily himself, that has allowed him to go under the radar here.

I'm with you. He's far from a lock to be a great player, but he's about as sure of a thing to be a well rounded, above average long term starting C as you will find in this game for a big man of his age. It's why I was always high on him and probably would have drafted him as high as 3rd-5th. In fact the only guy I was sure I'd take over him was Luka.

Yeah, same here, except I had both Luka and JJJ as 1 and 2. I still believe that they are the two best players from that draft. Both franchise players and generational talents. JJJ is just going to take a little longer to become the player he will be. Luka was already a seasoned pro and had a great deal of experience against grown men and high level competition. Jaren Jackson Jr. was the youngest player in the draft and very raw and unpolished. He is going to have a great season but I think season 3 for him is going to be where he becomes the star.

JJJ is still only 19 and he actually would have been one of the younger players in THIS years draft and he now has a year of NBA experience. Just wait until this kid is 21-22 years old and has four years in the league.

[League Circles]

See, I disagree with this. The touch that dude had on some of his attempts last season is something you rarely see from a 19-year-old big. The finesse within his passing game, not to mention the IQ he has in place to even recognise the read, are skills way beyond his age.

I'm usually the 'let's wait and see with these kids' kind of conservative guy when it comes to projecting players, but I'm all in on Wendell, for the future, but also wanting to point out that it was his team and coach, not necessarily himself, that has allowed him to go under the radar here.

I'm with you. He's far from a lock to be a great player, but he's about as sure of a thing to be a well rounded, above average long term starting C as you will find in this game for a big man of his age. It's why I was always high on him and probably would have drafted him as high as 3rd-5th. In fact the only guy I was sure I'd take over him was Luka.

Yeah, same here, except I had both Luka and JJJ as 1 and 2. I still believe that they are the two best players from that draft. Both franchise players and generational talents. JJJ is just going to take a little longer to become the player he will be. Luka was already a seasoned pro and had a great deal of experience against grown men and high level competition. Jaren Jackson Jr. was the youngest player in the draft and very raw and unpolished. He is going to have a great season but I think season 3 for him is going to be where he becomes the star.

JJJ is still only 19 and he actually would have been one of the younger players in THIS years draft and he now has a year of NBA experience. Just wait until this kid is 21-22 years old and has four years in the league.

Agreed on JJJ. I was sure I'd take Luka over WCJ, relatively sure I'd take JJJ, and had a lot of trouble deciding on Carter vs Bagley vs Ayton for the 3-5 spots. But all of those guys over Bamba and most definitely over Trae Young.

[johnnyvann840]

Also, Wendell just had that surgery, last month, to repair his abdomen. If that has been hindering him since high school and he is finally fully healthy, pain free, with no restriction of movement, he could really have a break out season. WCJ is a a huge X factor for this team. If he truly breaks out, he and Lauri and Thad Young will make up one hell of a front court trio.

[Kurt Heimlich]

WCJ is a smart young dude, but looked to me to have suffered a bit from being overly self analytical in the heat of the moment, especially when things weren't going well (i.e. his foul trouble and poor shooting). Part of being a high level guy is not letting things like that effect you on the next play, quarter, etc. Some call it confidence, I call it not getting lost in your head. But I think that is something that experience can go a long way in helping improve.

Love his tool chest to be an all around, jack-of-all-trades, modern big though.