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The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards)

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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#21 » by dckingsfan » Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:24 pm

Dat2U wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Actually piggybacking off the Hachimura selection and the Wizards looking to increase their international footprint I can see Deni Avdija from Israel getting a real strong look in next years draft. He'd also fill a need.

G John Wall, Ish Smith, Justin Robinson
G Bradley Beal
F Deni Avdija, Troy Brown Jr.
F Rui Hachimura, ... , Admiral Schofield
C Thomas Bryant

Could Deni become Luka lite?


He could with emphasis on the lite part. Like Luka he's 6-8 and has solid vision and passing skill. He also can make split second decisions with the ball in his hands.

He's also got decent quickness but he's not very long nor is he the savant with the ball Luka is. He's more solid and functional whereas Luka creates plays out of nothing. Like Luka he's streaky shooter with a propensity for off the dribble jumpers.

I see more solid than special. I view him as a fairly safe pick early in the process who does not quite have the elite skill of Luka.
I definitely see the international players having a heavy influence on next year's draft. I think Theo Maledon will be worth a look too (if you are just looking at BPA).
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#22 » by Ruzious » Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:51 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Could Deni become Luka lite?


He could with emphasis on the lite part. Like Luka he's 6-8 and has solid vision and passing skill. He also can make split second decisions with the ball in his hands.

He's also got decent quickness but he's not very long nor is he the savant with the ball Luka is. He's more solid and functional whereas Luka creates plays out of nothing. Like Luka he's streaky shooter with a propensity for off the dribble jumpers.

I see more solid than special. I view him as a fairly safe pick early in the process who does not quite have the elite skill of Luka.
I definitely see the international players having a heavy influence on next year's draft. I think Theo Maledon will be worth a look too (if you are just looking at BPA).

I think Kentucky might have 2 special frosh in Kahlil Whitney and Tyrese Maxey. If Whitney continues to improve his shooting range, I think he fits perfectly with Washington. But it's too early to tell.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#23 » by doclinkin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:02 pm

[Never mind. Doesn't matter. You do you. Everybody has their own thing. Maybe that's yours. It's cool.]
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#24 » by Ruzious » Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:25 pm

When Tommy picked Rui and the Admiral, my thought is that he's going for character guys who are tough mentally and physically. I never thought of Rui as a guy who's going to make a lot of 3's, but I'm hoping he proves me wrong. He then got little guys like IT and Ish while letting Sato go - which surprised me. They're little, but they're both tough-minded. IT might not be well-liked around the league, but you can't question his mental toughness, and Ish is a guy who's always beat the odds - I remember back to when he struggled as Jeff Teague's backup at Wake Forest - he's always proven people wrong. The 3 young guys from the Lakers - they're all in their formative years and need to learn from tough-minded vets that Tommy brought in. Tommy's looking for tough-minded people who can hopefully play some and have something to prove, and that mental toughness is going to spread to the rest of the team. But... it'll have to show on the court - will they show as a team that they're physically and mentally tough - a badarse team that backs down to nobody? It'll be no smiles Bradley Beal and Thomas Bryant you'll see this season.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#25 » by DCZards » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:27 pm

The success of a Beal-Wall led Zards team will depend, for the most part, on the development of Bryant, Hachimura and, to a lesser extent, Brown. It’s encouraging to see that much of the beefing up of the Zards front office and Monumental Sports is in the critical area of player development.

Bryant has been a real find and if Hachimura turns out to be an above average starter that’s a solid young frontline to build around, along with a veteran backcourt. Hopefully, Wall is healthy, rejuvenated and ready to adjust his role and play in a way that best suits this new Zards team.

Then there’s Troy Brown. He’s a high bball IQ, unselfish player who passes like a PG and is an instinctive rebounder. Brown must improve his shooting, especially his 3pter, but he has the potential to be the Swiss Army knife type of player that is a good fit on just about any team.

With the cap space available after the Mahinmi deal expires in 2020, I’d try to sign a defensive-minded big...an above average rebounder and shotblocker who would complement the more offensive-minded Bryant and Hachimura.

The 2020 lottery pick is a wild card. I’d look to draft a two-way guard with good size who is capable of backing up both Wall and Beal and sharing the court with them.

I see the Zards as a 30-35 win team next season and a 40-44 win team in the 2020-21 season. If the young guys develop as hoped for, the Zards pick a gem with its 2020 lottery pick and the team spends its limited free agent money wisely, I could see us winning 50 games or more during the 2021-22 season. (Yes, those are big “ifs”.)

The real question is whether Beal will have the patience to stick around through this process.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#26 » by doclinkin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:50 pm

Ruzious wrote:When Tommy picked Rui and the Admiral, my thought is that he's going for character guys who are tough mentally and physically. I never thought of Rui as a guy who's going to make a lot of 3's, but I'm hoping he proves me wrong.



I don't think he will make a ton of 3's either. But efficient scoring has a few on ramps. Hachimura takes one of the harder roads by putting up a high % from inside the arc. But we have seen what a weapon this is with Kawhi. If you can score reliably on the interior you can counter the outside shooting pace and space teams and slow it down to starve teams of the extra possessions needed for shots that miss more often than not. The three point scheme is streaky. It has doomed the Rockets a couple years in a row.

In FIBA play however Rui has played from outside the arc in a face up game, even if he has to step inside to hit those shots. If he learns to set a heavy pick outside then his pick and roll game is a weapon even if he stops short of the paint to hit those shots. Yeah it would help if he too could hit a three, but he only needs to hit a decent percentage if left wide open. Ditto Bryant. If any three players on the floor can reliably hit a long shot, and the other two players can pass or drive, then you can design plays to take full advantage of those strengths.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#27 » by payitforward » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:57 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
payitforward wrote:Oh man, is it ever going to be amusing to look back at this thread! Wow!! Mindblowingly wow...!

This would typify the "thinking" in this thread: "I think (Rui) is Danilo Gallinari, with a little more upside due to physical tools/mentality. At 22, Gallo put up (per36) 16 & 5 on a TS of 60%... I expect similar from Rui."

That is 100% -- no, make that 200% -- fantasy & has no relationship of any kind whatever to any reality. Could Rui turn out to be as good as Gallo? Of course that's possible. It's also possible that he turns out as bad as... fill in any name you want.

Oh dont worry there chief...Ill be back to quote this in the next 2 years if not this season. :wink:
Rui will certainly surpass Gallo. He is equally skilled on offense with higher upside on defense.

I actually think he'll be a much better scorer, but not quite the playmaker/passer...which is why the Kawhi comp (Offense Only) fits so well.

Hey, listen, I hope you are 1000 times right, & I'm 1000 times wrong!! & it's possible too. I've been wrong before -- plenty of times!

But, why stop with Rui? Why can't we say "I think Admiral Schofield is (fill in the blank), with a little more upside due to (fill in the blank with whatever you think of first)."

Rinse & repeat with Justin Robinson.

You know what? That would make me happy too. & if it works out that way, I'll be the first to call myself a nattering nabob of negativism (Spiro Agnew's phrase -- for you young'uns). Plus, it's great to see people here being positive rather than negative -- & at least with some good reason (Ernie is history, etc.).

But, before we are a really good team, we will have to pay for every one of Ernie's mistakes. There will be no free pass to being a contending team. Moreover, the predictive power of the phrase "I think Rui will be ______" (you fill in the blank) is exactly zero.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#28 » by payitforward » Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:05 pm

prime1time wrote:Rui will be better than Gallinari...

I think the team will be solid because it is built well.... Can this team reasonably expect to compete for a championship? If everything goes perfectly well, yes.

Wow...

Hard to know what to say when this is the kind of stuff people write! It's a happy thing, a really nice high. But, the crash.... watch out!
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#29 » by Ruzious » Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:25 pm

payitforward wrote:
prime1time wrote:Rui will be better than Gallinari...

I think the team will be solid because it is built well.... Can this team reasonably expect to compete for a championship? If everything goes perfectly well, yes.

Wow...

Hard to know what to say when this is the kind of stuff people write! It's a happy thing, a really nice high. But, the crash.... watch out!

Yeah, Gallinari has averaged almost 50 games played a season - that's quite a standard to set. And that doesn't include the 18 playoff games he's played in his entire career - not to mention the countless (i.e. zero) all-star games he's played in. Whoa there - let's not get crazed in the land we're raised. Sit back, see through the haze and be unfazed and amazed by the trail he will blaze.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#30 » by DCZards » Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:33 pm

payitforward wrote:Hey, listen, I hope you are 1000 times right, & I'm 1000 times wrong!! & it's possible too. I've been wrong before -- plenty of times!

But, why stop with Rui? Why can't we say "I think Admiral Schofield is (fill in the blank), with a little more upside due to (fill in the blank with whatever you think of first)."

Rinse & repeat with Justin Robinson.

You know what? That would make me happy too. & if it works out that way, I'll be the first to call myself a nattering nabob of negativism (Spiro Agnew's phrase -- for you young'uns). Plus, it's great to see people here being positive rather than negative -- & at least with some good reason (Ernie is history, etc.).

But, before we are a really good team, we will have to pay for every one of Ernie's mistakes. There will be no free pass to being a contending team. Moreover, the predictive power of the phrase "I think Rui will be ______" (you fill in the blank) is exactly zero.


PIF, are you suggesting that posters not make predictions because they might be wrong? I thought that was one of the chief purposes of this board...for people to share their opinions. People ought to be able to say what they "think" without being mocked.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#31 » by Ruzious » Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:50 pm

A few years ago, if we had only listened to Pif, we could have traded down for all 3 Green brothers - Draymond, Danny, and AC - all in one swell foop. But no. :nonono:
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#32 » by pcbothwel » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:19 am

payitforward wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
payitforward wrote:Oh man, is it ever going to be amusing to look back at this thread! Wow!! Mindblowingly wow...!

This would typify the "thinking" in this thread: "I think (Rui) is Danilo Gallinari, with a little more upside due to physical tools/mentality. At 22, Gallo put up (per36) 16 & 5 on a TS of 60%... I expect similar from Rui."

That is 100% -- no, make that 200% -- fantasy & has no relationship of any kind whatever to any reality. Could Rui turn out to be as good as Gallo? Of course that's possible. It's also possible that he turns out as bad as... fill in any name you want.

Oh dont worry there chief...Ill be back to quote this in the next 2 years if not this season. :wink:
Rui will certainly surpass Gallo. He is equally skilled on offense with higher upside on defense.

I actually think he'll be a much better scorer, but not quite the playmaker/passer...which is why the Kawhi comp (Offense Only) fits so well.

Hey, listen, I hope you are 1000 times right, & I'm 1000 times wrong!! & it's possible too. I've been wrong before -- plenty of times!

But, why stop with Rui? Why can't we say "I think Admiral Schofield is (fill in the blank), with a little more upside due to (fill in the blank with whatever you think of first)."

Rinse & repeat with Justin Robinson.

You know what? That would make me happy too. & if it works out that way, I'll be the first to call myself a nattering nabob of negativism (Spiro Agnew's phrase -- for you young'uns). Plus, it's great to see people here being positive rather than negative -- & at least with some good reason (Ernie is history, etc.).

But, before we are a really good team, we will have to pay for every one of Ernie's mistakes. There will be no free pass to being a contending team. Moreover, the predictive power of the phrase "I think Rui will be ______" (you fill in the blank) is exactly zero.

PIF... We are all busy people and contribute quite often to this board. I feel like we dont always have to hash over certain details as they get mentioned over and over. Look at his stats as one of the best players on an elite team. Well coached, great work ethic, elite measurements... We've covered that in the Rui thread along with his red flags.

Listen, I was not a fan of Rui first glance. I thought he was overhyped due to his background and was still burned by another low IQ, poor vision/defensive awareness wing in Oubre. When I saw the poor court awareness and somewhat robotic/Sum of parts type athleticism I saw red flags and began looking at other players more.

What I didnt realize was that he appears to very smart and hardworking, but just needed the time and coaching. He's got the hardware necessary.

I also thought he was a mediocre shooter and had high efficiency due to bully ball and transition buckets. But his offensive tool box is far advanced and he really has the skills to be a 20pt scorer on strong efficiency. If he can hit the 3, watch out cuz he's got everything else.

He is so much like Kawhi offensively at the same age is really uncanny. Quite demeanor, strong, long, flat but accurate shot, athletic but not particularly explosive, etc.
Look at Kawhis 1st 4 years in the league.
Per 36: 15/7.5/2.3 at a usage of 18%, TS of 58%, and AST%: 9.7%

Might be a better rebounder, but I think Rui scores a little more and can put up about the same numbers...
The difference is that Kawhi was in the Premier organization, in a great role, and is an elite defender.

Johns health and ability to shift his playing style are really the wild cards, because I think Rui can turn into a solid 3rd piece.
Im also pretty confident (As I think you are) that Bryant is a solid lock to be a top 10 C sooner than later. Injury aside, his size, age, production, and work ethic make it hard to keep him out.

So another wild card is Troy Brown. I actually think he will be liked more than Rui by the analytics folks much like Sato was. But Brown is VERY interesting because if his age and jack of all trades ability. He's also a smart player and sees the game/floor well. If he can have a Iggy/Sato/Covington type effect on the game and do the little things to help us win than we become an interesting team to watch with what I assume will be another top 10 pick in a strong 2020 draft.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#33 » by payitforward » Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:38 am

doclinkin wrote:
payitforward wrote:Oh man, is it ever going to be amusing to look back at this thread! Wow!! Mindblowingly wow...!


Right, predictable, as usual you have nothing to offer in the way of analysis other than casting aspersions and scorn on other people's thought. Grouchy old hater is the only role you play. Which is why I encourage you to make poetry in these threads so you don't manage to be so constantly dislikable. Then whine when you get a boot to the rear when someone gives it back to you....

Oh, yeah. I'm just such a negative guy! Why can't I see Mo Wagner's potential, I wonder? What a grouch!! Why can't I grok that the fact that SA would make Davis Bertans available for absolutely nothing at all -- take him, he's free! -- bears no relation whatever to how good a player he is? Worse yet, why do I have to mention these things as if they matter? As if they might have an impact on anything?

Here's the thing -- I LIKE the off-season we've had. It's been a refreshing change from the horrible Ernie past. I'm super-interested to see what's going to happen, how long it'll take to turn things around, what our hit ratio will be on acquisitions, etc. It's absolutely fun to be a Wizards fan now -- the manhole cover we all had on our heads via Ernie for years & years is lifted -- great!

Moreover, I've said this about a zillion times -- but it doesn't seem to matter to you. In fact, the only thing you seem to care about is agreement. If a person reacts to what you say with "yes, doc," you are happy. If a person disagrees with you, & above all if they a thoroughly different point of view from yours, you are displeased & what's important is to put that person down, put that person in his place.

Thus, if I think it'll take more than 7 weeks to begin to execute on a plan & by doing so to offer useful insight into the shape things will take & its level of success, it's not because I'm a grouch; it's because, unlike you, apparently, I know what a simple-minded world it would be if it were at all like that.

doclinkin wrote:The point of the thread was ...to take the team at its word that there is a plan, and then to figure out what that plan may be based on the moves they have made. Absolutely it is Tommy's plan (as it is the plan of every other front office in the league) that they try to outthink the competition. Tommy's background in scouting prospects suggests to me that young players will be a point of emphasis for the team: to concentrate on making smarter choices with picks and young prospects than other teams do. Where Ernie made it clear in interviews that he didn't trust draft picks and preferred to trade for undervalued veterans. (Sprewell. Jamison. Butler, Gortat, etc.). ...

You will be shocked to know that I don't disagree with a single word of this. It's just colossally over-simplified. You have a plan in mind to be sure. But there are also immediate problems to be solved that are not related to taking action on that plan. & there are opportunities that present themselves, some of which work to help solve those immediate problems. Thus...
doclinkin wrote:So the point is to try to suss out the plan. They've gone in heavy on ranged shooters and ballhandlers and not committed salary past 3 years. They have not loaded up on rebounding and defense as I would have. Why? ...WHY did they make the moves they did choose to make? That's the point of this thread....

How about this as at least part of the reason -- because the guys they got were in their opinion the best players they could acquire with the limited resources at hand. I.e. because they had an off the charts high valuation of Rui (which may have been correct or may have been an error -- neither you nor I knows which at this point); because the Lakers needed to get rid of the players they needed to get rid of & not other players & because the simple deal by which we acquired them was too good an opportunity to turn down; because we had no assets to trade for a veteran role player & so we took the one that was offered to us for free (Bertans).

doclinkin wrote:Any of the moves the team made has an alternative move that would have shored up (other) deficient areas....

That statement is simply & plainly untrue. They seem to think Rui is "one of a kind." The Lakers deal certainly was one of a kind. Neither Jones nor Robinson fits your template. Neither does Clark. Neither does McRae for that matter (he doesn't shoot the 3). In fact, you just cherry pick data that fits your idea.

doclinkin wrote:...I get it that you have nothing to offer when it comes to analysis of coaching and playstyle. It's not an area where you claim expertise, and it's tricker to tease out the effects on court than to simply parrot Dave Berri or box score gurus and anyone else whose research you've glommed onto and claimed as your own. You punt when discussing spacing etc. and offer up your usual "of course it has an effect but we don't know what that is" because you have not yet found someone whose analysis you can claim and champion....

I did appreciate your clearing up the Taco Tuesday thing, where you demonstrated an acquaintance with contemporary social life in bars that exceeds mine. Thanks.

OTOH, you have yet to tell me anything indicating you have the faintest insight into "coaching and playstyle." Could you get a job based on that expertise? Didn't think so.

I don't own any stock in Dave Berri, amigo, but I can tell you this much: he knows one hell of a lot more about basketball than you ever will! That's an easy one.

Or, to put it another way, who the hell are you to critique me? We've known each other online for what10 years? Maybe more? When's the last time you were right about anything in the draft for example? Wait, I have the answer: never -- not as far as I can recall, at least never beyond the most obvious of obvious stuff right at the top of the draft.

You keep saying that you know what college numbers project best in predicting a player's NBA potential. Only I can't think of even a single R2 choice that doclinkin mentioned first in the "keep an eye on this kid" sense. Feel free to cite one. There must have been one. Surely -- one? Come up with it.

doclinkin wrote:I think you fail to offer analysis in large part for fear exactly the reason of the tone of your post: you're scared that someone will mock you if you get it wrong....

Good God! First off no one would say I hold back on my opinion or analysis! I'm pretty sure of that! :) You must have me mixed up with your mirror. How can you imagine I am "afraid" of being mocked -- look at my signature line: I quote Ruz making fun of me!

doclinkin wrote:Your answer for why we landed these guys is, well, they had no reason or analysis for landing these players in particular, they just had to fill slots. Got it. You've stated your case. You think the front office has no plan and is just loading up on guys who can fill slots.

Did you take off your thinkin' cap, old friend, & put on your drinkin' cap? :) I never said anything like that & I never would.

Everyone has a plan. Who doesn't have a plan? But, taking acton on a plan -- any plan in any sphere of life -- confronts limits based on what actions are available to you, what resources you have to support those actions, etc.. E.g. we didn't acquire Thomas Bryant by taking action on a 'plan.' We acquired him, because we responded to an unpredictable opportunity: the Lakers essentially gave him to us. We didn't acquire Bonga/Jones/Wagner, because we went to Rob Pelinka & said, "we want Bonga, Jones & Wagner -- how much?" We acquired them because they were available to us; the Lakers had to deal them, could not retain them, & they constituted a group of players whom we could afford, who were young, & who had some potential upside.

That doesn't mean it was a bad move to acquire them or to acquire Bryant. & it doesn't mean it was a random move, either -- after all, we could have said "no thanks" to Bryant. Ditto to this Summer's deal w/ LA.

I have no problem at all with your idea that we're signing guys who can spread the floor & shoot the 3. Even though it doesn't apply to McRae, Phillip, Jones, Bonga, or even to Rui in any special way (there were a lot more proficient 3-point shooters available in the draft), or to Smith or Brown. & even though it's not clear that it even applies to Wagner (what was his 3pt. % last year?). It is true of Bertans; that's his skill.

doclinkin wrote:so feel free to wander off to another thread where your entire mission is to piss on other people's ideas.

You really have it in you to be a nasty a$$hole, don't you? I mean... you don't post for months, & when you show up I respond in a celebratory way -- I make a point of it. But, that's what you have to say to me?

doclinkin wrote:Just recognize that when things are dead around here, often it is because of your effect on conversation. That no one can offer an opinion without you rushing to disagree and mock it. It's a tired act here, was a tired act on the official Wizboard and probably ought to be retired completely.

See above under "a$$hole."

doclinkin wrote:Risk something, man. Risk being wrong. I liked your take on Jemerrio, that you went all-in on him. Guess. Choose to not-know. You can do better than just being the guy who is constantly disagreeable.

God you can be a dick....
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#34 » by payitforward » Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:46 am

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:Hey, listen, I hope you are 1000 times right, & I'm 1000 times wrong!! & it's possible too. I've been wrong before -- plenty of times!

But, why stop with Rui? Why can't we say "I think Admiral Schofield is (fill in the blank), with a little more upside due to (fill in the blank with whatever you think of first)."

Rinse & repeat with Justin Robinson.

You know what? That would make me happy too. & if it works out that way, I'll be the first to call myself a nattering nabob of negativism (Spiro Agnew's phrase -- for you young'uns). Plus, it's great to see people here being positive rather than negative -- & at least with some good reason (Ernie is history, etc.).

But, before we are a really good team, we will have to pay for every one of Ernie's mistakes. There will be no free pass to being a contending team. Moreover, the predictive power of the phrase "I think Rui will be ______" (you fill in the blank) is exactly zero.


PIF, are you suggesting that posters not make predictions because they might be wrong? I thought that was one of the chief purposes of this board...for people to share their opinions. People ought to be able to say what they "think" without being mocked.

Of course they should, Zards -- & I did say I hoped pcbothwei was 1000 times right about Rui. & that he might be right & I wrong. & that I've been wrong many many times. That I would be happy for him to be right.

But, don't you think the air pump is getting wearisome in its work on poor Rui Hachimura, who is being treated like he's a lock to be a star, a key part of our future, when he hasn't ever played a single nba game & though he was ok in SL certainly wasn't some kind of phenom? That's all I meant to suggest.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#35 » by payitforward » Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:49 am

Ruzious wrote:A few years ago, if we had only listened to Pif, we could have traded down for all 3 Green brothers - Draymond, Danny, and AC - all in one swell foop. But no. :nonono:

Right... & gotten Tariq Black, Michael Redd, Vander Blue & Mellow Yellow in the bargain. At least we got Tradley Teal & Aaron White!
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#36 » by trast66 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:43 am

payitforward wrote:Right now, we have exactly one positive data point to apply in judging this FO -- one and no more -- namely, that Tommy Sheppard insisted that we pick up Thomas Bryant. That's it. Were it not for that, we would have no reason at all to think anything in particular about Tommy either way.

(Of course if we can give Sheppard credit for the pick of Troy Brown, then we will have another positive data point -- if, that is, Troy turns into the 15th best player (or better) to come into the league via the 2018 draft (or undrafted that year). Otherwise, no -- & if Tommy wasn't responsible for picking Troy, then his development will not reflect on this FO.)


How is it known that Tommy was reason we picked up Bryant? Agree, positive data point for resigning him to good contract, but EG was still in charge when claimed and seems unfair to pick and choose who gets credit for moves made.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#37 » by doclinkin » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:36 am

Eh. I redacted my post because what’s the point also it was off topic, when I was critiquing you for being off topic.

But I guess you were taking the rest of the day to respond and posted after my redaction. Ha! And here I thought you were being the bigger man.

But I’ll pick through and see what’s of substance and germane to the topic.

payitforward wrote:
doclinkin wrote:Any of the moves the team made has an alternative move that would have shored up (other) deficient areas....

That statement is simply & plainly untrue. They seem to think Rui is "one of a kind." The Lakers deal certainly was one of a kind. Neither Jones nor Robinson fits your template. Neither does Clark. Neither does McRae for that matter (he doesn't shoot the 3). In fact, you just cherry pick data that fits your idea.


Robinson is a ballhandler of the drive and dish type. If the concept is: ‘find a simulation of John Wall and surround them with shooters’ then he fits.

McRae also is a ballhandling attacker who lacks great range but gets his points inside the arc.

In the no-hand-check era this sort of player became more useful.

Actually Arenas and Hughes with EFJ’s Wizards were the first to really exploit that rules change. As soon as Jamison began gunning from outside at a rate never seen before, Hughes and Arenas began pegging opponents with fouls.

Here, we have Beal in that outside/inside Arenas role, but didn’t add any other three point shooting guards. That wasn’t a point of emphasis on who this team picked up. Not saying they avoided it. Just saying it wasn’t who they worked to acquire.

You suggest none were available. But if we had traded down we could have landed Tyler Herro and still snatched a rebounding big and more. If that was what we were looking for, there were players available after 9 who would have filled both roles.

You and I would have picked differently than this front office. I surely would have taken the Spurs draft if they offered a trade up. (Plus future picks). I liked Domancic and cited Keldon Johnson as a standout in the ‘productive freshman equals higher upside’ sift of the data.

who the hell are you to critique me?


I’m one of multiple people already in this short thread who is suggesting you derail conversations by negging damn near everybody on any topic whatsoever, as if you have sole authority on all things basketball. Go back and reread yourself.

When's the last time you were right about anything in the draft for example? Wait, I have the answer: never -- not as far as I can recall,


Well that’s because you’re old and your memory is failing.

Hell, I brought up Clarke before you did. You’ve cited my nod of Chandler Parsons who early on had success beyond his draft pick. Folks here know I’ve had far more success with 2nd round and late picks than most, from Marc Gasol to Jared Dudley to Kyle Lowry. Actually the top of the board is where I trust scouts. There’s no track record to analyze. Late picks I do well with. But I’ll draw up a list some point. Generally as good or better than yours I suspect.

I had Mario Chalmers but forget the guy you cited as equivalent. We can play this game if you like. You want me to point people to your Joey Porter posts?

I had Kemba Walker in his draft as my guy, especially on a trade down. I had Trevor Booker ahead of the Craig Brackens pick you remember. He was pretty good value for his pick. Liked both of Orlando’s bigs, Gordon and Vuc.

I’ve generally been in accord with you. We both appreciate rebounding and taking care of the ball. I prefer defensive boards over offense in college. The same way I discount NCAA blocks since they don’t translate as well. I like bigs who get assists and steals. And guards who rebound on defense better than their counterparts. My track record is about as good as anyone on the board or the mocks. Had James Harden but wanted Stef above all. I had Stef Curry as a freshman. Died inside that we drafted anyone else.

Yes I do commonly read about coaching. Plays. Watch YouTube breakdowns. Can coach at a high school level. Love reading about it and designing plays. Had a thread on here years back drawing up plays and discussing packages for the players we did have.

I saw what Calipari was doing that inflated the numbers of his Bigs in the dribble drive motion offense where he would play four out then drag his low post player to the weak side to clear out space for ball handlers. When the opposing big then tried to cut off the interior attack Joey Porter among others would crash back door and get free easy points and offensive putbacks.

I liked EFJ’s dribble handoff bastardization of the Pete Carril Princeton offense since it reduced turnovers for our personnel group. And saw how it was failing because he lacked a true Pivot in the center. MORE so than the ranged 5 he thought he wanted. What he needed was passing and a defensive captain. Needed the Bill Russell defending and distributing Big who could be the hub of the wheel around which the action revolves and whose Celtics were the inspiration for the Princeton motion game in the first place. (But sure, who doesn’t need Russ). Still both Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood had marble hands and could not pass or distribute to save their lives. And defensively they weren’t mobile.

Which is why seeing both of the Gasol brothers play as distributing Bigs in Spanish play with La Bomba made me think Marc would play well for EFJ (his birthday brother if you were ever here to read the zodiac thread). If the big Spaniard could lose a little weight to keep up with the running gunning Gil and Larry. He’d have fit perfectly. Though I was happy with Dom MaGuire who we picked before Gasol. Figured he’d be the Andre Iguodala type that I wished we picked (rebounder, passer, shotblocker) instead of trading the pick for Jamison. Dom was okay for a late pick. Gasol would’ve been better.

But yes. It’s fascinating to me to envision how to put into action what players do well. Players aren’t numbers. Synergy is key. It’s beautiful. Hell I’m no pro. But I’m relatively bright with a good visual imagination. I can see gaps and holes and have insight. It’s worth thinking about.

You saw me talking about rebounding and 2FG% as a counter to Stef and Harden before Kawhi did exactly that in the playoffs.

I have no problem at all with your idea that we're signing guys who can spread the floor & shoot the 3. Even though it doesn't apply to McRae, Phillip, Jones, Bonga, or even to Rui in any special way (there were a lot more proficient 3-point shooters available in the draft), or to Smith or Brown. & even though it's not clear that it even applies to Wagner (what was his 3pt. % last year?). It is true of Bertans; that's his skill.


Bigs who shoot the three and play outside. FIBA style.

Ballhandlers who drive and dish or score inside. (Ditto FIBA style actually, especially in Barcelona and Croatia who both generally have skilled Bigs).

I know I’m long winded and maybe not worth reading. But if you missed that point then you’re just skimming to find points you disagree with and chances to be disagreeable.

Here is my key point, or question;

Given what a healthy John Wall does well and what he does poorly, if you had a mandate from the owner to design a team around him, what sort of team would you build?

What I perceive is that the team is recruiting bigs who can stay out of the way of attacking guards. Leaving room for ballhandling attackers to drive inside and kick to the open man.

Then they are adding ballhandlers who can handle some of the John Wall duties.

Do I think it’s a finished product? No.

Do I think it’s the perfect plan? No.

Do they need upgrades or development all over to make it work? Yes.

But I do think it’s a plan.

John is elite at creating shots for outside shooters. Better than anyone since Steve Nash. Why not give him archers to command?

Does that mean I think Bertans and Wagner and Admiral and Miles are our championship pieces? Nope. It just says something to me that the centers and forwards they sought out are face-up bigs who can play outside the arc.

Rui and Bryant included. Though they can play inside as well.

And I do think the FO deliberately sought out Wagner in that deal. They liked him in Europe. They liked him in college. Hell _you_ liked him in college. For that reason. Efficient scoring. Outside shooting. The gamble is that he can rebuild his confidence and regain that touch. They loved him in the draft. But it wasn’t for his rebounding. What’d they love?

Given his FIBA experience, I wouldn’t be surprised if they had their eye on fellow German Bonga too. They just didn’t say as much about him in the breakdown of the deal. Wagner they said they’d wanted a long time.

Them. Not me. The point is trying to guess what they’re doing. And what they ought to do if so. My opinions on what works are different.


You really have it in you to be a nasty a$$hole, don't you?


Yes I do. Hell you’ve got the mellow me. I’ve moved on past the old flame wars.

But check yourself a second. You pissed on the premise of the thread. Made snide contemptuous and condescending remarks on people who were honestly trying to answer the question. And then clambered up on your high horse.

Feel free to read the Terms of Service of the site, but effectively you were trolling. Derailing the conversation to provoke argument, and then patting yourself on the back for doing so. It’s a habit of yours. I don’t think you really know you’re doing it. You think condescendion is humor. This board is super relaxed about that sort of thing, picking fights and being obnoxious, and I love it that way. But sometimes it’s tiresome to read it again when it adds nothing new to the conversation.

Which is why I redacted my own reaction before you responded. It added nothing on topic. But oh well.

I give you hell in part because I do like you. I told you about these boards since I knew you’d respect the emphasis on analysis and find some people who could occasionally put you in your place statistically. And even more rarely, rhetorically.

But when you crash in with the Payitforward act that everybody but you is an idiot, in my thread, then yeah, this dog barks back and bites. And I invite you to Takeitback elsewhere. Bring some content beyond critiquing other peoples ideas.

At least in the Ernie Goodbye thread you risked a new idea, even if it was gossipy gloating about the guy in our rear view mirror that we finally dropped by the roadside to let someone else drive.

Here? Ok everyone else is wrong. Except you You wish it weren’t so. But there’s no evidence that it isn’t. And oh how you will laugh when you can look back.

I mean, nice. But it adds nothing to the conversation.

I mean... you don't post for months, & when you show up I respond in a celebratory way -- I make a point of it. But, that's what you have to say to me?


If I missed you doing that I appreciate it. I do get busy on life and other adventures. But like the team and miss you guys. Even these little dust ups. They keep things lively.

God you can be a dick....


I mean. Amen. Can’t argue with you there.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#38 » by doclinkin » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:53 am

In short. Play by the rules of the thread. Instead of mocking others. Answer the question.

If ownership or circumstances said you had to keep Wall and Beal and build a team around them. What kind of team would you build?

Additionally. The work done by Tommy (and all) may or may not have a pattern and may hint at the Plan they say they have. Our team was an early adopter of play analytics cameras and software. If the team is building based on any particular analysis, what if anything do their moves indicate?

Show your work.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#39 » by doclinkin » Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:12 am

Had me curious who I liked in past drafts.
I punted on the last couple drafts before this year. Did no analysis. Feeling that “Ernnui” of numbness about it all.

The last guy I recall liking was Denzel Valentine. But we had no 1st rounder that year. I liked Brice Johnson if we could get him late.

I’ll have to start a different thread or find one that fits.
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Re: The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards) 

Post#40 » by payitforward » Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:47 pm

doclinkin wrote:Eh. I redacted my post because what’s the point also it was off topic, when I was critiquing you for being off topic. ...

First off, I apologize for going off on you. You really pissed me off, but it never helps to keep the interaction at that level....
doclinkin wrote:
I mean... you don't post for months, & when you show up I respond in a celebratory way -- I make a point of it. But, that's what you have to say to me?

If I missed you doing that I appreciate it. I do get busy on life and other adventures. But like the team and miss you guys. Even these little dust ups. They keep things lively.
God you can be a dick....

I mean. Amen. Can’t argue with you there.

I take it that's as close as you can get to apologizing. I'll just accept it in that spirit.

One thing I often say to people is that the two greatest inventions of human beings are the question & the apology.

Even the most difficult human situations can usually be straightened out with a question or an apology or both. Peace.

(I redacted the continuing stuff about the team/players from this, because it struck me that it had reached the vanishing point of interest & ought to be allowed to disappear over the horizon.)
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.

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