Left Off of Depleted Team USA: A Wakeup Call for LaVine?

[dice]

Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago where there was an article/interview with Zach where he talked at length about defense and how he wanted to become better as a help defender and how that would be a point of emphasis next season? He’s plenty aware. He just needs to get better. The bottom line is that some people just don’t like him as a player but they find it hard to really reason that. So they come up with unsubstantiated reasoning such as bbiq, not being a winner and other stuff because they can’t back up that he’s a poor player via core stats. That’s how I see it.

I recalled something along those lines about defense as well.

Zack has an amazing ability to get his own shot and his prime is ahead of him & team's only get a few opportunities to exploit top talent to produce wins.

Anyone suggesting that he is a lost cause with his faults is really selling him short. We have them for three more years minimum unless traded, enjoy it, hes good and can become great.

The surrounding cast for this next season should be a tremendous help as well.

Zach is currently the bulls best player.

he's not close to as good as porter

The negative analytics are annoying but it's typically the crutch when ppl want to dismiss traditonal stats.

nobody wants to dismiss traditional stats. that's ridiculous. people use advanced stats because they provide additional information. information is not a crutch. if used properly it helps you get off your crutches

[ryannik09]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Another stat showing that Lavine isn’t very good is on the way.

[transplant]

I guess I'm not surprised that LaVine wasn't high on the Team USA list. He has a defensive reputation and it ain't a good reputation. Wake up call? Maybe, but I doubt that LaVine is unaware of how he is viewed by the rest of the league. If he wants to be seen as a complete player, he needs to play that way.

[cjbulls]

RPM is the only widely available stat that meaningfully addresses defense. it accounts for teammates and opponents. and Mitchell is way ahead of lavine in that as well

It doesn’t account for teammates when you always play with the same teammates.

yes, yes it does. it's exactly what it does. nobody ALWAYS plays with the same teammates. one season of RPM is not very meaningful, but multiple seasons for a starter are

there's a reason why Mitchell's DRPM is not even close to gobert's. if it was all about primary lineup their numbers would be very similar

Dude look at the link before you spout off.

http://www.82games.com/1819/18UTA4.HTM

His top 20 lineups all feature those two. And the 20th lineup was only used for 19 minutes total last season. So a minuscule percent of the season was with some other players.

Now we can’t tell for sure because ESPN refuses to release the underlying data behind RPM, but one of two thing is happening

1. either those tiny minutes have little impact because 99.6% of his minutes are with Gobert and/or Favors, or

2. the model places excessive weight on these minuscule minutes because it struggles to find other data, in which case you have a small sample size problem.

My guess is it’s the former. So yes, his rpm is heavily skewed by his teammates. One of them is THE top defensive player in the nba, the other a top 20 defender. And that’s before you start talking about Jae crowder, Ricky Rubio, etc.

[kyrv]

A blessing IMO - keep Zach safe from Team USA!

I am happy to contribute Dunn and Blakeney!

Selfishly I'm glad he's not playing, but if he did, his choice.

------------

Wakeup call? Nah. Closer to a snub if anything, but not really much.

I do agree with others, at this point Lavine is heading or already is underrated, which, wow, never thought I would say. ;o

[johnnyvann840]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Another stat showing that Lavine isn’t very good is on the way.

I agree with the list except Pascal Siakam shouldn't be on the overrated list by any standard I can see. His impact was HUGE in a positive way no matter how you slice it. Not only that but the guy just stepped up big time in big moments in the playoffs which is something that is hard to measure.

This is a huge difference maker and when you consider this is NET differential on the best team in the NBA last season...

Here is Siakam on/off by the numbers....




When people talk about CONTEXT and on/off and scoreboard related advanced stats, he just shines..

as you can see when you isolate him with everybody else, he just makes almost all his teammates better when they are on the floor with him...



These are hard to do when you are on a very good team. If you are a great player on a crappy team, you should be able to make a big on/off positive splash. If you don't, then there is usually a problem with something you are doing which effects scoreboard and pt differential. Especially when it's consistent over several seasons. Lavine, for instance, has been mostly net negative for most of his 5 year career regardless of team or lineups. Last year, he finally got into positive territory, but barely. He didn't move the needle much and when you look at the fact that his replacements were G league caliber guys like Blakeney and others, it's a little troubling despite the improvement. Zach was also one of the worst clutch players in the NBA with high turnover rates, poor FG%, just overall terrible clutch performer and the eye test says the same thing.

With Siakam, his raw "traditional" stats are also quite good. High TS% of .628. High FG% of 55%, above average 3 pt FG%. 19.1, 7.8 and 3.5 per 36. He seemed to do everything well. I mean, this kid checks all the boxes so I'm not sure what RAPTOR is measuring him with, but it doesn't seem to me like he should be on any overrated lists.

[ryannik09]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Another stat showing that Lavine isn’t very good is on the way.

I agree with the list except Pascal Siakam shouldn't be on the overrated list by any standard I can see. His impact was HUGE in a positive way no matter how you slice it. Not only that but the guy just stepped up big time in big moments in the playoffs which is something that is hard to measure.

This is a huge difference maker and when you consider this is NET differential on the best team in the NBA last season...

Here is Siakam on/off by the numbers....




When people talk about CONTEXT and on/off and scoreboard related advanced stats, he just shines..

as you can see when you isolate him with everybody else, he just makes almost all his teammates better when they are on the floor with him...



These are hard to do when you are on a very good team. If you are a great player on a crappy team, you should be able to make a big on/off positive splash. If you don't, then there is usually a problem with something you are doing which effects scoreboard and pt differential. Especially when it's consistent over several seasons. Lavine, for instance, has been mostly net negative for most of his 5 year career regardless of team or lineups. Last year, he finally got into positive territory, but barely. He didn't move the needle much and when you look at the fact that his replacements were G league caliber guys like Blakeney and others, it's a little troubling despite the improvement. Zach was also one of the worst clutch players in the NBA with high turnover rates, poor FG%, just overall terrible clutch performer and the eye test says the same thing.

With Siakam, his raw "traditional" stats are also quite good. High TS% of .628. High FG% of 55%, above average 3 pt FG%. 19.1, 7.8 and 3.5 per 36. He seemed to do everything well. I mean, this kid checks all the boxes so I'm not sure what RAPTOR is measuring him with, but it doesn't seem to me like he should be on any overrated lists.

Agreed, Siakam was the only surprise name on the list. The rest made sense.

[Proven_Winner]

How’s Lavine overrated? He doesn’t get love from anyone. Mostly people cherry pick stats to **** on him and when vice versa happens people **** on that stat. Again to be overrated you have to be highly liked and that’s not lavine.

[bearadonisdna]

Well those are just junk theorums.
What's that stat called? Raptor? And the other was Draymond.

[dice]

It doesn’t account for teammates when you always play with the same teammates.

yes, yes it does. it's exactly what it does. nobody ALWAYS plays with the same teammates. one season of RPM is not very meaningful, but multiple seasons for a starter are

there's a reason why Mitchell's DRPM is not even close to gobert's. if it was all about primary lineup their numbers would be very similar

Dude look at the link before you spout off.

http://www.82games.com/1819/18UTA4.HTM

His top 20 lineups all feature those two. And the 20th lineup was only used for 19 minutes total last season. So a minuscule percent of the season was with some other players.

i knew that before your LAST post. don't be an ass

So yes, his rpm is heavily skewed by his teammates. One of them is THE top defensive player in the nba, the other a top 20 defender. And that’s before you start talking about Jae crowder, Ricky Rubio, etc.

pay attention this time:

if 1) playing w/ gobert substantially affected mitchell's numbers, and 2) they're always on the floor together, then 3) THEIR NUMBERS SHOULD BE MORE SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER. but Mitchell's DRPM is nowhere NEAR gobert and favors. this is MULTIPLE seasons with similar results. you're attempting to discount Mitchell's numbers because he's playing w/ superb defenders, but the results simply don't support that theory. your "evidence" that they're almost always on the floor together UNDERMINES the point you're trying to make. if you're saying that there's not enough data with them not on the floor together to account for the difference in their purported defensive impact, fine. but that's a completely separate argument

i do happen to think that good defensive teammates somewhat inflate an individual player's DRPM. but not enough to suggest that Mitchell is anything less than a solid defender

RPM uses 50% RAPM and 50% box score, by the way. testing shows it to be the best single number stat out there. particularly for multiple seasons worth of data. for the last two seasons it has been more predictive of TEAM success than vegas! i've actually read statistical discussions of this stuff

[cjbulls]

yes, yes it does. it's exactly what it does. nobody ALWAYS plays with the same teammates. one season of RPM is not very meaningful, but multiple seasons for a starter are

there's a reason why Mitchell's DRPM is not even close to gobert's. if it was all about primary lineup their numbers would be very similar

Dude look at the link before you spout off.

http://www.82games.com/1819/18UTA4.HTM

His top 20 lineups all feature those two. And the 20th lineup was only used for 19 minutes total last season. So a minuscule percent of the season was with some other players.

i knew that before your LAST post. don't be an ass

So yes, his rpm is heavily skewed by his teammates. One of them is THE top defensive player in the nba, the other a top 20 defender. And that’s before you start talking about Jae crowder, Ricky Rubio, etc.

pay attention this time:

if 1) playing w/ gobert substantially affected mitchell's numbers, and 2) they're always on the floor together, then 3) THEIR NUMBERS SHOULD BE MORE SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER. but Mitchell's DRPM is nowhere NEAR gobert and favors. this is MULTIPLE seasons with similar results. you're attempting to discount Mitchell's numbers because he's playing w/ superb defenders, but the results simply don't support that theory. your "evidence" that they're almost always on the floor together UNDERMINES the point you're trying to make. if you're saying that there's not enough data with them not on the floor together to account for the difference in their purported defensive impact, fine. but that's a completely separate argument

i do happen to think that good defensive teammates somewhat inflate an individual player's DRPM. but not enough to suggest that Mitchell is anything less than a solid defender

RPM uses 50% RAPM and 50% box score, by the way. testing shows it to be the best single number stat out there. particularly for multiple seasons worth of data. for the last two seasons it has been more predictive of TEAM success than vegas! i've actually read statistical discussions of this stuff

If you knew then you wouldn’t have posted when you did. And don’t start name calling.

Think how bad his defense must be if he spends 99% of his minutes with two top 20 defenders and in the few minutes without them it drops his RPM significantly. He sounds atrocious.

Show me all the statistical articles you read, because espn has hid behind rpm being proprietary. I would love to see their formula broken down as clearly as you stated.

[The Box Office]

LaVine is a bad player defensively. Offensively, he's ok, but he doesn't set up teammates well.

Anyways, this is a diss. No way around this. Wake up call for sure.

I don't know why some of y'all in here are protecting LaVine, The kid doesn't care about defense. He will NOT get better on that end either. Y'all protecting him because he won 2 dunk contests? Oh man.

I don't know why Siakam is on that overrated list. WTF? He plays hard on defense and he was a vital part for the Raptors championship.

[Devinpo]

A blessing IMO - keep Zach safe from Team USA!

I am happy to contribute Dunn and Blakeney!

Preach!

[Ferulci]

How’s Lavine overrated? He doesn’t get love from anyone. Mostly people cherry pick stats to **** on him and when vice versa happens people **** on that stat. Again to be overrated you have to be highly liked and that’s not lavine.

I've seen on this very board people saying he was better than Donovan Mitchell (he's not), in the same tier than Bradley Beal (he's absolutely not) or that he could be a MVP candidate.
So I won't say he doesn't get love from anyone.

That being said, I agree with you : hard to call him overrated when the whole league thinks that he's a empty-calories stats who was amongst the worst defensive player at his position this season.

[Proven_Winner]

How’s Lavine overrated? He doesn’t get love from anyone. Mostly people cherry pick stats to **** on him and when vice versa happens people **** on that stat. Again to be overrated you have to be highly liked and that’s not lavine.

I've seen on this very board people saying he was better than Donovan Mitchell (he's not), in the same tier than Bradley Beal (he's absolutely not) or that he could be a MVP candidate.
So I won't say he doesn't get love from anyone.

That being said, I agree with you : hard to call him overrated when the whole league thinks that he's a empty-calories stats who was amongst the worst defensive player at his position this season.

That doesn’t make a guy overrated though. That’s just you disagreeing with an opinion of fans. I’d bet money some jazz fans probably think Donovan is already top 10 in the league.

[Ferulci]

How’s Lavine overrated? He doesn’t get love from anyone. Mostly people cherry pick stats to **** on him and when vice versa happens people **** on that stat. Again to be overrated you have to be highly liked and that’s not lavine.

I've seen on this very board people saying he was better than Donovan Mitchell (he's not), in the same tier than Bradley Beal (he's absolutely not) or that he could be a MVP candidate.
So I won't say he doesn't get love from anyone.

That being said, I agree with you : hard to call him overrated when the whole league thinks that he's a empty-calories stats who was amongst the worst defensive player at his position this season.

That doesn’t make a guy overrated though. That’s just you disagreeing with an opinion of fans. I’d bet money some jazz fans probably think Donovan is already top 10 in the league.

And those Jazz fans would be wrong. Having an opinion is one thing, refusing to see facts (supported by eye test, analytics, personal or team success, whatever the way to measure performance) is another.

[Betta Bulleavit]

LaVine is a bad player defensively. Offensively, he's ok, but he doesn't set up teammates well.

Anyways, this is a diss. No way around this. Wake up call for sure.

I don't know why some of y'all in here are protecting LaVine, The kid doesn't care about defense. He will NOT get better on that end either. Y'all protecting him because he won 2 dunk contests? Oh man.

I don't know why Siakam is on that overrated list. WTF? He plays hard on defense and he was a vital part for the Raptors championship.

Who says that he’s being protected? And why assume that people that do support his development are somehow protecting him because of a dunk contest?? That’s why grinds my gears. It’s automatically assumed that if you support Lavine, you’re nothing more than an uneducated fan that only likes him because he can dunk. As if we’re unable to understand other aspects of the game. It’s insulting and uncalled for in my opinion.

And as far as your definitive statement that he “won’t improve defensively” it should be noted that there were noticeable improvements last year on a team that (by and large) sucked defensively. People have a right to be hopeful about our players without always having to deal with these advanced stats and such that have been proven to be faulty on more occasions than I care to list. My point....take the advanced stats and shove them. They are useful to an extent but they are not an end all be all. They just make people feel more comfortable about their sports intellect because many of them lack the true intellect necessary to quantify what is not easily quantifiable.

[Red Larrivee]

LaVine is a bad player defensively. Offensively, he's ok, but he doesn't set up teammates well.

Anyways, this is a diss. No way around this. Wake up call for sure.

I don't know why some of y'all in here are protecting LaVine, The kid doesn't care about defense. He will NOT get better on that end either. Y'all protecting him because he won 2 dunk contests? Oh man.

I don't know why Siakam is on that overrated list. WTF? He plays hard on defense and he was a vital part for the Raptors championship.

If LaVine was even a neutral defender, he would be a max player. Even then, a reasonable amount of people here still wouldn't want to pay him what he's worth. Regardless of defensive concerns, the league places a premium on players who are young, can create, shoot, and score efficiently at high volume.

LaVine's defense is harped on like it single-handedly prevents the Bulls from being an elite defensive team. It's eerily reminiscent of the Ben Gordon criticisms, even though the Bulls were an elite defense despite it. LaVine absolutely needs to continue to improve his defense, but his lack of defensive value is not ruining the Bulls hope to become a great defensive team.

DRPM:

Jamaal Murray: -1.19
Kemba Walker: -1.45
Bradley Beal: -1.71
Klay Thompson: -1.82
Zach LaVine: -1.87
Devin Booker: -2.44
Spencer Dinwiddie: -3.21
Lou Williams: -3.54
Trae Young: -4.78

Murray, Booker, Beal, Thompson and Walker all make the max. Zach LaVine makes $19.5 million flat over the next three years. I'm absolutely not saying LaVine is as good or better than any of those players, but as the cap continues to rise, his salary will remain a bargain. Meanwhile, players like Murray and Booker are making $16-17 million more despite not being much better at best.

It's worth noting that this is the highest DRPM of LaVine's career. So, he's gradually improved his defense over the years statistically:

Year 1: -4.34
Year 2: -3.65
Year 3: -2.35
Year 4: -2.14
Year 5: -1.87

He's certainly made clear progress at it, despite the comments in this thread indicating otherwise. I do not think he'll ever be a player who adds a ton of value defensively, but it's realistic it becomes passable. I'd argue the Bulls are better equipped now to hide LaVine's deficiencies with the addition of Satoransky and Porter on the wing. Also, if Wendell Carter becomes the type of defender a lot of people believe he can be, he's going to be able to anchor an elite defense. If LaVine dips down to Trae Young levels of defense, then we have a problem.

[drosereturn]

LaVine is a bad player defensively. Offensively, he's ok, but he doesn't set up teammates well.

Anyways, this is a diss. No way around this. Wake up call for sure.

I don't know why some of y'all in here are protecting LaVine, The kid doesn't care about defense. He will NOT get better on that end either. Y'all protecting him because he won 2 dunk contests? Oh man.

I don't know why Siakam is on that overrated list. WTF? He plays hard on defense and he was a vital part for the Raptors championship.

If LaVine was even a neutral defender, he would be a max player. Even then, a reasonable amount of people here still wouldn't want to pay him what he's worth. Regardless of defensive concerns, the league places a premium on players who are young, can create, shoot, and score efficiently at high volume.

LaVine's defense is harped on like it single-handedly prevents the Bulls from being an elite defensive team. It's eerily reminiscent of the Ben Gordon criticisms, even though the Bulls were an elite defense despite it. LaVine absolutely needs to continue to improve his defense, but his lack of defensive value is not ruining the Bulls hope to become a great defensive team.

DRPM:

Jamaal Murray: -1.19
Kemba Walker: -1.45
Bradley Beal: -1.71
Klay Thompson: -1.82
Zach LaVine: -1.87
Devin Booker: -2.44
Spencer Dinwiddie: -3.21
Lou Williams: -3.54
Trae Young: -4.78

Murray, Booker, Beal, Thompson and Walker all make the max. Zach LaVine makes $19.5 million flat over the next three years. I'm absolutely not saying LaVine is as good or better than any of those players, but as the cap continues to rise, his salary will remain a bargain. Meanwhile, players like Murray and Booker are making $16-17 million more despite not being much better at best.

It's worth noting that this is the highest DRPM of LaVine's career. So, he's gradually improved his defense over the years statistically:

Year 1: -4.34
Year 2: -3.65
Year 3: -2.35
Year 4: -2.14
Year 5: -1.87

He's certainly made clear progress at it, despite the comments in this thread indicating otherwise. I do not think he'll ever be a player who adds a ton of value defensively, but it's realistic it becomes passable. I'd argue the Bulls are better equipped now to hide LaVine's deficiencies with the addition of Satoransky and Porter on the wing. Also, if Wendell Carter becomes the type of defender a lot of people believe he can be, he's going to be able to anchor an elite defense. If LaVine dips down to Trae Young levels of defense, then we have a problem.

Lavine can only hope to be Beal but we all know theres 0 percent chance happening.
For a guy allergic to defense, he has to bring A game on rest of the game, but the only elite he is capable of is scoring as of now.
Relying on the team to have good defense is not a good idea to keep Lavine.
MVP Rose was one of the best defenders in the NBA which was why the Bulls were so close to a championship and relevant.
Even James Harden level defense would be great.

[Betta Bulleavit]

LaVine is a bad player defensively. Offensively, he's ok, but he doesn't set up teammates well.

Anyways, this is a diss. No way around this. Wake up call for sure.

I don't know why some of y'all in here are protecting LaVine, The kid doesn't care about defense. He will NOT get better on that end either. Y'all protecting him because he won 2 dunk contests? Oh man.

I don't know why Siakam is on that overrated list. WTF? He plays hard on defense and he was a vital part for the Raptors championship.

If LaVine was even a neutral defender, he would be a max player. Even then, a reasonable amount of people here still wouldn't want to pay him what he's worth. Regardless of defensive concerns, the league places a premium on players who are young, can create, shoot, and score efficiently at high volume.

LaVine's defense is harped on like it single-handedly prevents the Bulls from being an elite defensive team. It's eerily reminiscent of the Ben Gordon criticisms, even though the Bulls were an elite defense despite it. LaVine absolutely needs to continue to improve his defense, but his lack of defensive value is not ruining the Bulls hope to become a great defensive team.

DRPM:

Jamaal Murray: -1.19
Kemba Walker: -1.45
Bradley Beal: -1.71
Klay Thompson: -1.82
Zach LaVine: -1.87
Devin Booker: -2.44
Spencer Dinwiddie: -3.21
Lou Williams: -3.54
Trae Young: -4.78

Murray, Booker, Beal, Thompson and Walker all make the max. Zach LaVine makes $19.5 million flat over the next three years. I'm absolutely not saying LaVine is as good or better than any of those players, but as the cap continues to rise, his salary will remain a bargain. Meanwhile, players like Murray and Booker are making $16-17 million more despite not being much better at best.

It's worth noting that this is the highest DRPM of LaVine's career. So, he's gradually improved his defense over the years statistically:

Year 1: -4.34
Year 2: -3.65
Year 3: -2.35
Year 4: -2.14
Year 5: -1.87

He's certainly made clear progress at it, despite the comments in this thread indicating otherwise. I do not think he'll ever be a player who adds a ton of value defensively, but it's realistic it becomes passable. I'd argue the Bulls are better equipped now to hide LaVine's deficiencies with the addition of Satoransky and Porter on the wing. Also, if Wendell Carter becomes the type of defender a lot of people believe he can be, he's going to be able to anchor an elite defense. If LaVine dips down to Trae Young levels of defense, then we have a problem.

Lavine can only hope to be Beal but we all know theres 0 percent chance happening.
For a guy allergic to defense, he has to bring A game on rest of the game, but the only elite he is capable of is scoring as of now.
Relying on the team to have good defense is not a good idea to keep Lavine.
MVP Rose was one of the best defenders in the NBA which was why the Bulls were so close to a championship and relevant.
Even James Harden level defense would be great.

This is yet another thing that people do that helps drive false narratives. Jabari Parker is “allergic” to defense. That’s not Zach. Zach needs to learn how to play much better team defense. But his defensive effort is there. That was NEVER the case with a guy like Parker.

Also, Rose has good defensive metrics. But he was never close to being one of the best defenders in the league. Never. And I loved me some D Rose. But that was the.......ding ding ding NARRATIVE!!! And so it was. Even though anybody that really watched the games could see that he too had his short comings. Rose didn’t magically become a poor defender. He just wasn’t all that great at it from the get go. But I digress......