RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#19 2019-20

[Sofia]

Remove Durant still a thing? Nice

[Just_Somebody]

Kemba
CP3
Luka
Simmons

Nominate: CJ McCollum

[KqWIN]

My point on Kemba is that his box score stats don’t jive with him being a top 5ish offensive player as RPM says. He wasn’t top 20 in any of the box score composites. Thus it’s likely that RPM is actually overrating him somewhat. Meanwhile RPM is the best tool we have for defense so if we assume RPM’s accurate for defense and we say the truth on offense is somewhere in the middle (say Kemba as the 12th best player in the league), then he has a long way to go to catch up to CP3, Lowry, and Jrue overall.

Kemba was 8th in BPM and 11th in pure RAPM. The year prior he was 8th and 13th. Compare that to Jrue who was 24th and 9th last season. Kemba's adjusted +/- and BPM are consistent, but his box score component is actually higher than his adjusted +/-. Either way, I don't agree with this idea in in the first place. You can just as easily flip this idea on it's head and say that the box score overrates a player...which is actually a more practical argument IMO.

[Effigy]

Voted Luka nominate CJ McCollum

[iggymcfrack]

My point on Kemba is that his box score stats don’t jive with him being a top 5ish offensive player as RPM says. He wasn’t top 20 in any of the box score composites. Thus it’s likely that RPM is actually overrating him somewhat. Meanwhile RPM is the best tool we have for defense so if we assume RPM’s accurate for defense and we say the truth on offense is somewhere in the middle (say Kemba as the 12th best player in the league), then he has a long way to go to catch up to CP3, Lowry, and Jrue overall.

[u]Kemba was 8th in BPM and 11th in pure RAPM[/i]. The year prior he was 8th and 13th. Compare that to Jrue who was 24th and 9th last season. Kemba's adjusted +/- and BPM are consistent, but his box score component is actually higher than his adjusted +/-. Either way, I don't agree with this idea in in the first place. You can just as easily flip this idea on it's head and say that the box score overrates a player...which is actually a more practical argument IMO.

No he wasn’t. I have absolutely no idea where you got that. He had a BPM of 3.3 which was good for 37th in the league. His career high is 4.0 in 2016 for 15th which was the only time he ranked in the top 20. I guess he was 8th in OBPM, but that’s just consistent with the RPM data which has him 6th in ORPM and 34th in RPM overall well behind Lowry, Paul, Jrue, and Siakam. I don’t know what your source is for RAPM. I haven’t found one that I liked much post-2014, but this one gets quoted a lot here and it has him 460th:

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/season/2018-19/regular-season/

My point with the box score numbers isn’t that they’re usually valuable on their own. It’s that they’re a decent representation of offense. So if the impact stats rate you lowish while also saying that your offense is much better than the box score stats would represent it, we can probably trust that those impact stats aren’t underrating you.

[KqWIN]

My point on Kemba is that his box score stats don’t jive with him being a top 5ish offensive player as RPM says. He wasn’t top 20 in any of the box score composites. Thus it’s likely that RPM is actually overrating him somewhat. Meanwhile RPM is the best tool we have for defense so if we assume RPM’s accurate for defense and we say the truth on offense is somewhere in the middle (say Kemba as the 12th best player in the league), then he has a long way to go to catch up to CP3, Lowry, and Jrue overall.

[u]Kemba was 8th in BPM and 11th in pure RAPM[/i]. The year prior he was 8th and 13th. Compare that to Jrue who was 24th and 9th last season. Kemba's adjusted +/- and BPM are consistent, but his box score component is actually higher than his adjusted +/-. Either way, I don't agree with this idea in in the first place. You can just as easily flip this idea on it's head and say that the box score overrates a player...which is actually a more practical argument IMO.

No he wasn’t. I have absolutely no idea where you got that. He had a BPM of 3.3 which was good for 37th in the league. His career high is 4.0 in 2016 for 15th which was the only time he ranked in the top 20. I guess he was 8th in OBPM, but that’s just consistent with the RPM data which has him 6th in ORPM and 34th in RPM overall well behind Lowry, Paul, Jrue, and Siakam. I don’t know what your source is for RAPM. I haven’t found one that I liked much post-2014, but this one gets quoted a lot here and it has him 460th:

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/season/2018-19/regular-season/

My point with the box score numbers isn’t that they’re usually valuable on their own. It’s that they’re a decent representation of offense. So if the impact stats rate you lowish while also saying that your offense is much better than the box score stats would represent it, we can probably trust that those impact stats aren’t underrating you.

His offensive BPM is that high, which contradicts your point that his offensive RPM is overvalued because his box score says otherwise. My source on RAPM is nbashotcharts.com/rapm. This is the site that 538 is using for RAPM in their new raptor metric (I think, the site owner is very respected in the community).

It's just so weird to use this as a reason to neg Kemba for consistency between RPM and BPM when those numbers are, in fact, more consistent with Kemba than the others. You're being heavily reliant on RPM...which is another conversation....but you're also picking and choosing when and how it matters based on context that doesn't hold up. This narrative that he is overvalued because his box score says so doesn't exist.

[jwise44]

Kemba, should have been earlier....I’m highly biased though

[iggymcfrack]

[u]Kemba was 8th in BPM and 11th in pure RAPM[/i]. The year prior he was 8th and 13th. Compare that to Jrue who was 24th and 9th last season. Kemba's adjusted +/- and BPM are consistent, but his box score component is actually higher than his adjusted +/-. Either way, I don't agree with this idea in in the first place. You can just as easily flip this idea on it's head and say that the box score overrates a player...which is actually a more practical argument IMO.

No he wasn’t. I have absolutely no idea where you got that. He had a BPM of 3.3 which was good for 37th in the league. His career high is 4.0 in 2016 for 15th which was the only time he ranked in the top 20. I guess he was 8th in OBPM, but that’s just consistent with the RPM data which has him 6th in ORPM and 34th in RPM overall well behind Lowry, Paul, Jrue, and Siakam. I don’t know what your source is for RAPM. I haven’t found one that I liked much post-2014, but this one gets quoted a lot here and it has him 460th:

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/season/2018-19/regular-season/

My point with the box score numbers isn’t that they’re usually valuable on their own. It’s that they’re a decent representation of offense. So if the impact stats rate you lowish while also saying that your offense is much better than the box score stats would represent it, we can probably trust that those impact stats aren’t underrating you.

His offensive BPM is that high, which contradicts your point that his offensive RPM is overvalued because his box score says otherwise. My source on RAPM is nbashotcharts.com/rapm. This is the site that 538 is using for RAPM in their new raptor metric (I think, the site owner is very respected in the community).

It's just so weird to use this as a reason to neg Kemba for consistency between RPM and BPM when those numbers are, in fact, more consistent with Kemba than the others. You're being heavily reliant on RPM...which is another conversation....but you're also picking and choosing when and how it matters based on context that doesn't hold up. This narrative that he is overvalued because his box score says so doesn't exist.

Well he was 29th in PER, 21st in OWS, 79th in WS/48, and 37th in BPM. There isn’t a lot of support for the idea that the impact stat which has him as the 6th best offensive player in the league is underrating him.

Also, the site you just gave me for RAPM ranks Jrue Holiday #5 in the entire league, Kyle Lowry #9, Pascal Siakam #14, Donovan Mitchell #30, Chris Paul #48, and Kemba Walker #51.

It ranks Kemba #11 and Jrue #9 for offense only. I don’t know why you keep trying to use offense only stats and eliminate the defensive component. Yes, if we were ranking players solely on their offense I would have been advocating Kemba much sooner on the list. His defense is a problem though. It’s been poor every single year.

[KqWIN]

No he wasn’t. I have absolutely no idea where you got that. He had a BPM of 3.3 which was good for 37th in the league. His career high is 4.0 in 2016 for 15th which was the only time he ranked in the top 20. I guess he was 8th in OBPM, but that’s just consistent with the RPM data which has him 6th in ORPM and 34th in RPM overall well behind Lowry, Paul, Jrue, and Siakam. I don’t know what your source is for RAPM. I haven’t found one that I liked much post-2014, but this one gets quoted a lot here and it has him 460th:

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/season/2018-19/regular-season/

My point with the box score numbers isn’t that they’re usually valuable on their own. It’s that they’re a decent representation of offense. So if the impact stats rate you lowish while also saying that your offense is much better than the box score stats would represent it, we can probably trust that those impact stats aren’t underrating you.

His offensive BPM is that high, which contradicts your point that his offensive RPM is overvalued because his box score says otherwise. My source on RAPM is nbashotcharts.com/rapm. This is the site that 538 is using for RAPM in their new raptor metric (I think, the site owner is very respected in the community).

It's just so weird to use this as a reason to neg Kemba for consistency between RPM and BPM when those numbers are, in fact, more consistent with Kemba than the others. You're being heavily reliant on RPM...which is another conversation....but you're also picking and choosing when and how it matters based on context that doesn't hold up. This narrative that he is overvalued because his box score says so doesn't exist.

Well he was 29th in PER, 21st in OWS, 79th in WS/48, and 37th in BPM. There isn’t a lot of support for the idea that the impact stat which has him as the 6th best offensive player in the league is underrating him.

Also, the site you just gave me for RAPM ranks Jrue Holiday #5 in the entire league, Kyle Lowry #9, Pascal Siakam #14, Donovan Mitchell #30, Chris Paul #48, and Kemba Walker #51.

It ranks Kemba #11 and Jrue #9 for offense only. I don’t know why you keep trying to use offense only stats and eliminate the defensive component. Yes, if we were ranking players solely on their offense I would have been advocating Kemba much sooner on the list. His defense is a problem though. It’s been poor every single year.

I brought up the offensive point because you keep acting as if it's a bad thing to have your value added on offense. I did not vote for Kemba, I explicitly said this. I am not making the argument for him or eliminating defense. I do, however, find your arguments against him strange and not consistent. As was the Simmons argument. I'm challenging your assertion that his adjusted +/- overrates him because of his box score component and the notion that Kemba being ranked 6th on offense is a bad thing. It does not matter where value comes from, offense or defense.

[iggymcfrack]

His offensive BPM is that high, which contradicts your point that his offensive RPM is overvalued because his box score says otherwise. My source on RAPM is nbashotcharts.com/rapm. This is the site that 538 is using for RAPM in their new raptor metric (I think, the site owner is very respected in the community).

It's just so weird to use this as a reason to neg Kemba for consistency between RPM and BPM when those numbers are, in fact, more consistent with Kemba than the others. You're being heavily reliant on RPM...which is another conversation....but you're also picking and choosing when and how it matters based on context that doesn't hold up. This narrative that he is overvalued because his box score says so doesn't exist.

Well he was 29th in PER, 21st in OWS, 79th in WS/48, and 37th in BPM. There isn’t a lot of support for the idea that the impact stat which has him as the 6th best offensive player in the league is underrating him.

Also, the site you just gave me for RAPM ranks Jrue Holiday #5 in the entire league, Kyle Lowry #9, Pascal Siakam #14, Donovan Mitchell #30, Chris Paul #48, and Kemba Walker #51.

It ranks Kemba #11 and Jrue #9 for offense only. I don’t know why you keep trying to use offense only stats and eliminate the defensive component. Yes, if we were ranking players solely on their offense I would have been advocating Kemba much sooner on the list. His defense is a problem though. It’s been poor every single year.

I brought up the offensive point because you keep acting as if it's a bad thing to have your value added on offense. I did not vote for Kemba, I explicitly said this. I am not making the argument for him or eliminating defense. I do, however, find your arguments against him strange and not consistent. As was the Simmons argument. I'm challenging your assertion that his adjusted +/- overrates him because of his box score component and the notion that Kemba being ranked 6th on offense is a bad thing. It does not matter where value comes from, offense or defense.

My point was simply that offense is easier to evaluate without impact data than defense is due to things like box score stats. If we didn’t have impact data, I don’t think anyone would have Kemba as a top 6 offensive player last year ahead of Nikola Jokic, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. It looks like other offensive metrics have him somewhere between 8 and 30. Thus, the impact data is likely to overrate him if anything. This makes sense as he was extremely crucial to his hopeless Hornets team that had no one else to generate offense even if he might be objectively less skilled than some other elite players.

[KqWIN]

Well he was 29th in PER, 21st in OWS, 79th in WS/48, and 37th in BPM. There isn’t a lot of support for the idea that the impact stat which has him as the 6th best offensive player in the league is underrating him.

Also, the site you just gave me for RAPM ranks Jrue Holiday #5 in the entire league, Kyle Lowry #9, Pascal Siakam #14, Donovan Mitchell #30, Chris Paul #48, and Kemba Walker #51.

It ranks Kemba #11 and Jrue #9 for offense only. I don’t know why you keep trying to use offense only stats and eliminate the defensive component. Yes, if we were ranking players solely on their offense I would have been advocating Kemba much sooner on the list. His defense is a problem though. It’s been poor every single year.

I brought up the offensive point because you keep acting as if it's a bad thing to have your value added on offense. I did not vote for Kemba, I explicitly said this. I am not making the argument for him or eliminating defense. I do, however, find your arguments against him strange and not consistent. As was the Simmons argument. I'm challenging your assertion that his adjusted +/- overrates him because of his box score component and the notion that Kemba being ranked 6th on offense is a bad thing. It does not matter where value comes from, offense or defense.

My point was simply that offense is easier to evaluate without impact data than defense is due to things like box score stats. If we didn’t have impact data, I don’t think anyone would have Kemba as a top 6 offensive player last year ahead of Nikola Jokic, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. It looks like other offensive metrics have him somewhere between 8 and 30. Thus, the impact data is likely to overrate him if anything. This makes sense as he was extremely crucial to his hopeless Hornets team that had no one else to generate offense even if he might be objectively less skilled than some other elite players.

I'm sure you know this, but RPM has two components. Box score and adjusted +/-. The box score portion rates him higher than the +/-. Surely you can see my confusion in your statement that the box score shows him that he's overrated. Especially considering that guys like Lowry and Holiday are the one's who are actually boosted up by the +/- portion. So why does this not apply to them?

If you're going to apply this logic to Kemba, it should apply to the others as well.

[iggymcfrack]

I brought up the offensive point because you keep acting as if it's a bad thing to have your value added on offense. I did not vote for Kemba, I explicitly said this. I am not making the argument for him or eliminating defense. I do, however, find your arguments against him strange and not consistent. As was the Simmons argument. I'm challenging your assertion that his adjusted +/- overrates him because of his box score component and the notion that Kemba being ranked 6th on offense is a bad thing. It does not matter where value comes from, offense or defense.

My point was simply that offense is easier to evaluate without impact data than defense is due to things like box score stats. If we didn’t have impact data, I don’t think anyone would have Kemba as a top 6 offensive player last year ahead of Nikola Jokic, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. It looks like other offensive metrics have him somewhere between 8 and 30. Thus, the impact data is likely to overrate him if anything. This makes sense as he was extremely crucial to his hopeless Hornets team that had no one else to generate offense even if he might be objectively less skilled than some other elite players.

I'm sure you know this, but RPM has two components. Box score and adjusted +/-. The box score portion rates him higher than the +/-. Surely you can see my confusion in your statement that the box score shows him that he's overrated. Especially considering that guys like Lowry and Holiday are the one's who are actually boosted up by the +/- portion. So why does this not apply to them?

If you're going to apply this logic to Kemba, it should apply to the others as well.

RPM only uses box score data as a prior. It shouldn’t count for that much in the final formula. It’s just like how PI RAPM would use data from the previous year.

What RPM does split into though is offense and defense. It has a number for each one. I’m saying that we don’t need impact data to have a decent idea where players should rank offensively. Of all the people voting for Kemba Walker right now, I would bet the majority of them are doing so on the basis that his offense is somewhere in the 10-15 range and his defense is “meh, whatever, who cares?” I’m saying that if those people who had made little effort to study the defensive value of guards used their own evaluation for his offense and trusted the data for defense, they’d find that they ranked him lower than RPM did.

[KqWIN]

My point was simply that offense is easier to evaluate without impact data than defense is due to things like box score stats. If we didn’t have impact data, I don’t think anyone would have Kemba as a top 6 offensive player last year ahead of Nikola Jokic, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. It looks like other offensive metrics have him somewhere between 8 and 30. Thus, the impact data is likely to overrate him if anything. This makes sense as he was extremely crucial to his hopeless Hornets team that had no one else to generate offense even if he might be objectively less skilled than some other elite players.

I'm sure you know this, but RPM has two components. Box score and adjusted +/-. The box score portion rates him higher than the +/-. Surely you can see my confusion in your statement that the box score shows him that he's overrated. Especially considering that guys like Lowry and Holiday are the one's who are actually boosted up by the +/- portion. So why does this not apply to them?

If you're going to apply this logic to Kemba, it should apply to the others as well.

RPM only uses box score data as a prior. It shouldn’t count for that much in the final formula. It’s just like how PI RAPM would use data from the previous year.

What RPM does split into though is offense and defense. It has a number for each one. I’m saying that we don’t need impact data to have a decent idea where players should rank offensively. Of all the people voting for Kemba Walker right now, I would bet the majority of them are doing so on the basis that his offense is somewhere in the 10-15 range and his defense is “meh, whatever, who cares?” I’m saying that if those people who had made little effort to study the defensive value of guards used their own evaluation for his offense and trusted the data for defense, they’d find that they ranked him lower than RPM did.

Why is including adjusted +/- bad? Is it not important to consider how a player's team performs relative to the other players on the court? And again...You're dodging the point that Kemba's offensive box score is very consistent with his RPM. More consistent than that of Lowry and Holiday. If you are saying that Kemba's offensive RPM is overrated because of these conditions, you must also say that Holiday and Lowry are also overrated by ORPM and to a much larger degree to remain logically consistent. I don't agree with your logic, but this is what follows.

I'm not arguing that Kemba's defense is a negative. It is why I did not vote for him. But your evaluation of his offense doesn't remain consistent when applied to other players. I would never use the fact that a player is ranked 6th in ORPM but just 8th in OBPM as a negative and justification that his offense is potentially overrated. Especially not when I vouch for players who demonstrate this theory to a larger degree.

[TheNewEra]

Kemba over Paul? Wtf

[THE J0KER]

Kemba over Paul? Wtf

29y over 34y is commmon thing in basketball.

[TheNewEra]

Kemba over Paul? Wtf

29y over 34y is commmon thing in basketball.

Then why didn’t players like Simmons or Mitchell get more consideration for youth and high level of play?

[Roddy B for 3]

My prediction on CP3:
CP3 will probably play like a top 20 player for 60 games next year. He will also average 0mpg for about 22 next year.

I voted Kemba and next I'll bite Luka.

I nominate Aldridge

[lakerz12]

Kemba over Paul? Wtf

29y over 34y is commmon thing in basketball.

Then why didn’t players like Simmons or Mitchell get more consideration for youth and high level of play?

Because they are 22 and 23 and barely entering their primes. That's totally different, apples to oranges.

Of course they don't compare favorably to elite players who are at their peak around 25-29 years old.

[PistolPeteJR]

Jrue.

Nominate Kemba.

[nurseryc]

Voted Simmons. Has DPOY potential