2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[Skin Blues]

I feel like Marco Estrada-type guys are going to have big problems unless they change the balls back to pre-2017. Anything in the air these days has a chance to go out. Ground ball pitchers are having huge success beating their ERA estimators this season. Among starting pitchers with >100 IP, the top 1/3 of in GB% have a 3.86 ERA and 4.42 SIERA vs 4.12 ERA and identical 4.42 SIERA for the bottom 1/3 in GB%. These metrics will be adjusted to account for the increased danger in allowing fly balls, but ground ball pitchers will be much more in demand I think.

[dagger]

I'd give Borucki a shot at the rotation in 2021, but aside from that, I think Ryan's assessment is bang on.

One thing that is impressing me so far is that no highly rated player signed or drafted by the team since 2016 has really flunked out yet. That means they are, at the very least, retaining or enhancing trade value whether they are part of the Jays future or not.

TJ Zeuch has had successive good starts in Buffalo, and if this proves to be a trend, he will likely be added to the 40-man roster shortly (as he has to be protected for the Rule 5 draft). Same with Anthony Kay if I am not mistaken.

Kloffenstein likely had his best pro start yesterday. He threw five innings of 2H ball with 1BB and 8K.

[dagger]

Reviews of Lopez's defense generally aren't positive...ie., he doesn't have infield skills, rather than he's a 2B not a SS or what have you. But he might have a chance to stick in CF down the road, and if he adds at least doubles pop he's got bat-to-ball skills.

Emily Waldon, one of the Detroit writers for The Athletic, ventured over to Lansing and interviewed a few of the Jays prospects there. She wrote this about his D, which doesn't add very much except, perhaps, a bit about his self-awareness. BTW, his second language is French, not English, because he spent some of his formative years in Montreal.

f
For Lopez, the hardest thing to get under control has been his defence. He has committed 23 errors over 91 games with Lansing, a number he’s determined to drop.
“I think the errors in the infield are making me upset,” Lopez said. “I want to work on more of my defence, like my throwing defence.”
Since signing with the Blue Jays in 2016, Lopez has been played nearly everywhere, with the exception of first base, catching or pitching.
In 2019, the Blue Jays have worked Lopez between second base and shortstop. At 5-foot-10, 160 pounds, Lopez moves well in the infield, but shows the need for more polish, as he’s well aware. He’s a quick-twitch above-average defender with room to grow and a projectable skill set.

[vaff87]

Anthony Kay tonight: 5 innings 4 H 2 ER 3 BB 8 SO

Emilio Bonifacio scored both runs.

[vaff87]

.

Hey schad, why is Nolan Gorman considered a better prospect than Jordan Groshans at this point in time?

Gorman is half a year younger, and has been pushed really aggressively by the Cardinals, including a red hot start last year in the Appalachian League. However, Groshans was picked higher, and was doing much better in the Midwest League before his injury.

[Schad]

.

Hey schad, why is Nolan Gorman considered a better prospect than Jordan Groshans at this point in time?

Gorman is half a year younger, and has been pushed really aggressively by the Cardinals, including a red hot start last year in the Appalachian League. However, Groshans was picked higher, and was doing much better in the Midwest League before his injury.

Pick position doesn't mean much there; Gorman was expected to be drafted before Groshans, so that doesn't really shade things, as they're at best par. Gorman has serious flaws, and his numbers this year aren't great, but he has serious power and enough game time under his belt to have an idea of what he's about. Groshans' injury means that it's hard to judge him, because he played approximately 1/6th of one season before getting hurt.

Gorman was probably rated too highly in some places after one season given his swing-and-miss, and he'll probably fade a bit. But he still has far more record at the moment than Groshans...it's easier to have some sort of impression of a guy with 735 PAs, 568 of which are in A-ball or higher, versus a guy with 303 PAs, 96 of which are in A-ball.

[vaff87]

.

Hey schad, why is Nolan Gorman considered a better prospect than Jordan Groshans at this point in time?

Gorman is half a year younger, and has been pushed really aggressively by the Cardinals, including a red hot start last year in the Appalachian League. However, Groshans was picked higher, and was doing much better in the Midwest League before his injury.

Pick position doesn't mean much there; Gorman was expected to be drafted before Groshans, so that doesn't really shade things, as they're at best par. Gorman has serious flaws, and his numbers this year aren't great, but he has serious power and enough game time under his belt to have an idea of what he's about. Groshans' injury means that it's hard to judge him, because he played approximately 1/6th of one season before getting hurt.

Gorman was probably rated too highly in some places after one season given his swing-and-miss, and he'll probably fade a bit. But he still has far more record at the moment than Groshans...it's easier to have some sort of impression of a guy with 735 PAs, 568 of which are in A-ball or higher, versus a guy with 303 PAs, 96 of which are in A-ball.

I kinda forgot that Gorman was expected to go higher in the draft.

Where do you think the Jays will start Groshans next year: Back in Lansing because he missed so much time or in Dunedin?

[polo007]

His ‘invisiball’ has Blue Jays prospect Joey Murray on the fast track – The Athletic

If you checked the lists of top Blue Jays prospects before the season, Joey Murray was invisible. But soon, folks started to see Murray’s invisiball.

That’s baseball embroidery for a fastball that sneaks up and runs and hides before you know it.

“It’s like an optical illusion. Your eyes think it’s going to be one place, but it never gets there. It always stays above that,” Vince Horsman says.

Horsman is the pitching coach at Double-A New Hampshire. Murray has been a professional pitcher for only 14 months, but he’s a fast mover, and after brief stops in Vancouver, Lansing and Dunedin, he’s already soaking up the wisdom of Horsman, a former Blue Jays pitcher and Halifax native and whose interview tariff is a bag of ketchup chips and a KitKat bar, items he cannot find south of the border.

After listening to my abject apologies, Horsman agreed to waive his fee and offered his summation of Murray’s invisiball.

“Joey strikes out a lot of guys because he can elevate a ball pretty good,” he said as he sat in the bullpen on a recent afternoon in Erie, Pa., where New Hampshire was visiting the Tigers’ Double-A team.

“He’s one of those high-spin efficiency guys. His ball has some good life upstairs. Even at 90, he has the ability to throw it by people up there.”

Even at 90. That’s the velo on Murray’s, uh, heater. He doesn’t try to sugarcoat it. He blithely labels himself “a below-average-velocity guy.”

[dagger]

Pearson has been promoted to Buffalo

Also Forest Wall


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[Ado05]

Seems a bit quick, but thats pretty exciting.

[vaff87]

This will give him experience pitching with the new ball going into next year.

[wamco]

I love it. Reward the guy. He is a top prospect. Challenge him

[polo007]

Pearson has been promoted to Buffalo

Read on Twitter

[phillipmike]

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[Schad]

Last three starts: 15 IP, 4 ER, 10 hits, 16:2 K:BB. He could be a very good one.

[vaff87]

Last three starts: 15 IP, 4 ER, 4 hits, 16:2 K:BB. He could be a very good one.

10 hits. But yeah... and at that level, some of those hits might be attributed to weak defense.

And we can’t forget he’s basically five years younger than the average player in the FSL.

[wazabifuzz]

Panone is not a starting pitcher. Jays really need to improve on the rotation next year.

[Al_Oliver]

Panone is not a starting pitcher. Jays really need to improve on the rotation next year.

Font started yesterday not Pannone... but you're correct, he should not be starting

[dagger]

Last three starts: 15 IP, 4 ER, 4 hits, 16:2 K:BB. He could be a very good one.

10 hits. But yeah... and at that level, some of those hits might be attributed to weak defense.

And we can’t forget he’s basically five years younger than the average player in the FSL.

We should also remember we're almost at the end of his first full season, and it wouldn't surprise me if he's tailing off ever so slightly, especially with FB velocity. To maintain the kind of stats he is, at his age and at the level he has attained, in his first full pro season, is extremely encouraging.

[phillipmike]

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Spin rate guy, Thomas Hatch is having an easy time in AA. 8.04 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 - has walked 2 batters in 4 starts (21 innings). At the age of 24 turning 25, he should be in AAA.

Johnston with a decent showing, finally.

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Looks like SWR and Kay are the reasons for us jumping from the 9th best farm to the 6th best.