The Wizards Plan (cracking the Beal Wall Tommy Wizards)

[payitforward]

These are fair questions.

If ownership or circumstances said you had to keep Wall and Beal and build a team around them. What kind of team would you build?

I would always do the same thing: acquire the very best players possible & let them (& a good coaching staff) figure out how to play together effectively. That's different from "build a team." I would handle position balance issues via trades -- &, obviously, the better player I have to trade the better player I can expect to get back in a trade, so that still doesn't imply a different strategy.

I would never think about need but would always choose the BPA at any draft pick (or trade down if I thought it would get me more overall value). When GS took Draymond, it wasn't b/c he could help them "build a team." He could do that, because of how good a player he was & is! That was why to take him. Duh.

The work done by Tommy (and all) may or may not have a pattern and may hint at the Plan they say they have. Our team was an early adopter of play analytics cameras and software. If the team is building based on any particular analysis, what if anything do their moves indicate?

I never denied that Tommy has a plan. No matter what you do in life you have to have a plan! But I had/have two problems with your way of reading the "hints" about what the plan may be:

1. In focusing on "plan" you seemed intent on leaving out the other thing you always have to do, which is to be opportunistic -- that's how we got Thomas Bryant & that's what the Lakers deal this Summer was as well. Tommy may have been delighted that Mo Wagner was going to be available, but the deal itself was a function of the Lakers sudden transformation. Their need to dump players gave us an opportunity to start solving a right-now (not strategic) problem of being short of players, short of financial headroom to pay players, & short of assets w/ which to acquire players.

2. IMO it's just too soon & too few data points for the very confident conclusions you want to draw. For example, Bertans may fit your idea of the plan, but he also gave us a reliable journeyman at zero acquisition cost, solving a very different kind of immediate problem (again, being opportunistic also figures in here).

To me, it seemed you didn't want any part of either of those points, because they stood in the way of a sweeping set of conclusions of which you were convinced. Accordingly, you ridiculed them, over-drew them mockingly, & claimed I was suggesting we were being "random."

You were insulting & nasty to boot. Lets see whether, as I hope, you've gotten past that.

[Dat2U]

These are fair questions.

If ownership or circumstances said you had to keep Wall and Beal and build a team around them. What kind of team would you build?

I'd probably pick the exact same players I would have picked if Wall/Beal were on the trade block. The best players possible.

IMO that still was Goga/Clarke to solidify the frontcourt in the draft and Delon Wright in FA to replace Sato and give us a versatile 1-3 who can play with or in place of Wall.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

The plan foundation is to make the Wizards relevant as a viable free agent destination first and foremost. 2016 this team was not able to even secure a meeting with KD, and was passed over for Boston by Horford. The Wizards were left to settle for Mahinmi, Jason Smith and Andrew Nicholson. this off-season there was talk of the Clippers trading for Beal to entice free agent Kawhi, but the Wizards were never a candidate despite already having Beal. Etc, etc... What free agents have The Wizards been able to attract in recent years? An aging Paul Pierce probably tops The list. Jeff Green, Dwight Howard, Jodie Meeks... The list is incredibly anemic. The Wizards are never even mentioned as a possibility anytime a free agent is on the market, or a player has requested a trade and becomes available, the Wizards aren't even a consideration despite having all stars Wall and Beal. Something has to change because as of now the Wizards are TOTALLY irrelevant.

IMO Plan A is to build the team around Beal, and feature him as the main bait to attract a major FA, along with an influx of young talent and improved infrastructure, to create an image of an up and coming organization. Ted has been busy this off-season completely overhauling the management structure of Monumental Basketball, in an effort to create a "world class" organization. A team that can offer players first class facilities, coaching, analytics, training and medical, player support and counseling, post career opportunities, etc. This in theory will make D.C. worth looking into and considering for prospective free agents, which until now is something that has not been happening. The other part of the equation is the on court product being replenished with young improving talent that can compliment said free agent while being low cost so not to impede the financial abilities of the team to make this a legitimate destination. Tommy described this off-season as hitting a bunch of singles. Well the benefit of hitting a bunch of singles is that it sets you up so when you do hit a homerun it's a grand slam!

I believe the path to achieve this includes the trading of Wall. To be able to offer a max deal to acquire a top tier FA we need major cap space. To be a contender in this league, you need a top 5 caliber player. The quickest and surest way to do that is free agency. We can continue to try to get one in the draft but it is a long shot and Beal's window is starting to close. Neither Wall or Beal are top 5 caliber, and I don't think we can ever contend with Wall and Beal both at max salary because we can't add enough to it. One has to go, and given Wall's injury and age, he seems to be the logical choice to move. Ideally he comes back and shows he is healthy and able to play at a high level starter caliber PG, and we are able to deal him for expiring contracts to free up that cap space. Target date 2020 off-season or prior to trade deadline 20/21 season. We keep Beal as a high caliber player a top 5 level player can come here to team up with and make this a contending situation.

19/20 season focus on rehab of Wall, establishing Beal as franchise player and a star of the league, extend him if possible, develop young supporting cast Hachimura, TBJ, Bryant, Bonga, Admiral, Wagner, etc.

Off-season 2020 Mahinmi off the books. Begin process of moving Wall for expirings. Fire Scott Brooks and hire Sam Cassell Head Coach, (continue the siphoning of Clippers management). Sam is from Baltimore, was great here as an assistant and liked by the players (including Beal), has tutored under Flip and Doc, and would be a great fit for where we are as an organization as we enter the next phase of The Plan.

2020 Draft 1st round target PG. Candidate Cole Anthony (UNC), checks the Tommy boxes high IQ high motor & good coaching. Possible Wall insurance/replacement.

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2020-nba-mock-draft.html

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/cole-anthony.html

2020 2nd round , I believe we have Bulls pick for Satoransky (we dealt our pick for Jared Dudley). Candidate Killian Tillie (Gonzaga). Stretch 4, Hachimura's teammate last season could be potential Bertans replacement.

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2020-2nd-round.html

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/killian-tillie.html


2021 Draft 1st round, candidate combo guard Bryan Antoine (Villanova). From NBADraftroom.com "Antoine puts in work on both ends of the floor and always plays the game hard. He's a focused, team- first player and a winner."

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/2017/01/bryan-antoine.html


2021 Draft 2nd round, candidate Center Oumar Ballo (Gonzaga). One of his comps is Bryant. I'm not sure we have 2021 2nd rounder, I think we traded it for Trey Burke? If not we should be able to buy a 2nd rounder.

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/oumar-ballo_6.html

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2021-2nd-round.html



2021 Free Agent target PF Giannis Antetokounmpo

He is the logical primary Plan A target. A star top tier player, very marketable "The Greek Freak"!, coming from a smaller market, UFA in his prime and at the right timetable for us 2021, high character, hard worker, high motor, dominant, a perfect tandem with Beal.


Potential 2021 Roster

C - Bryant, Wagner, Ballo
PF- Antetokounmpo, Tillie
SF- Hachimura, TBJ, Admiral, Jones
SG- Beal, Antoine, Bonga
PG- Anthony, Sanon, Robinson


Roster is versatile with Hachimura at PF/SF, Antetokounmpo PF/C, TBJ 1-3, etc. Players such as Jones, Robinson, Admiral, Wagner may or may not be here and may be replaced with other young players or low cost free agents or acquisitions, but I list them because I see them as having the Potential skill to possibly stick here , and to show a full Potential 15 man roster. I realize the draft targets are impossible to predict so far out, but I tried to focus on prospects that as of now look to be forecasted to where we can pick them, and tried to pinpoint players that seem to embody the Tommy characteristics; good programs and coaching (Gonzaga, Villanova, UNC), players scouted as high IQ high motor, will play defense, classified as winners and leaders, team players, coachable, etc. And we know from Hachimura Tommy will locate players well in advance and track them to study their progress and background as they develop. These players I chose as draft candidates appear to have these traits and could be legitimate Tommy targets. Additionally I just want to demonstrate the type of talent we can realistically add to the team by 2021 by following the plan.


Keep in mind this is an outline of a PLAN A scenario. There are infinite plan B possibilities with various draft outcomes and free agent targets etc. But the principle philosophy of the "plan" is move Wall for cap space, extend Beal to pair with a top tier FA, and continue to add through the draft and low cost young high character players.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

There are good things happening in the front office.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2849636-wizards-owner-ted-leonsis-called-barack-obama-for-advice-about-team-direction

Leonsis also sought the advice of NBA commissioner Adam Silver, San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich and agent Rich Paul, among others. Silver advised Leonsis to speak with Mike Forde and his consulting group, Sportsology.

The Wizards ultimately wound up hiring Tommy Sheppard to spearhead their basketball operations department and made a number of hires to expand Monumental Basketball. Those hires also included former Cleveland Browns general manager Sashi Brown, who said he did not plan on landing a job with the franchise.

[payitforward]

I just had a funny thought. You'll notice from that article that one of the people whom Ted asked for input was Barack.

It couldn't be that one of our registered participants here is an ex ... nah.

Then again if he were, you'd expect really informed posts, right? So... you don't think maybe one of our more thoughtful posters, like maybe nate...? nah, no way... right?

Though, you know, as I start to think about it... I mean, presenting yourself as on the right politically, I mean what better way to obscure your real identity? ... nah... come on! It just can't be!!

Still... What about it, nate?

[Ruzious]

Hypothetically, Barak could help with recruiting free agents, but what if he's really a Bulls fan - not sure I'd trust him to help the Wizards.

[payitforward]

Hmmm, lives in DC, is a Wizards fan but has a historical connection to & affection for the Bulls.... Who does that describe?

OMG, it describes me! What if I'm Barack? Holy moly, I never thought of that!!

[Yuri Vaultin]

Don't sleep on Bonga!

[penbeast0]

Don't sleep on Bonga!

Why not, is he lumpy?

[JAR69]

I hesitate to say this, but if the Wizards are building a team around Wall/Beal (and outside shooting bigs already on the roster), they likely will need to seriously consider trading the 2020 pick for someone ready to play at a high level in 2020-21 and 2021-22. Wall may come back pretty healthy and strong, and Beal is still reasonably young. But it seems unlikely we can compete at a very high level with a 19 year old coming in and I suspect that Wall and Beal don't want to wait for that pick to develop. The probable top 6 draft pick is our best asset to really upgrade in the shortish term.

The problem is that I can't see who we would trade the pick for who would come in and be that difference-maker. I imagine the best fit would be a young super 3-and-D SF-type, maybe like a younger Igoudala, but I don't see anyone who fits that bill and would be available. That said, the league is so different these days - players you never thought would be available suddenly are.

I'm not trying to turn this into a mini-trades thread. All I'm saying is that even with the new Sheriff Sheppard in town, if we are building around Wall and Beal there will be a huge temptation to trade the pick.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I hesitate to say this, but if the Wizards are building a team around Wall/Beal (and outside shooting bigs already on the roster), they likely will need to seriously consider trading the 2020 pick for someone ready to play at a high level in 2020-21 and 2021-22. Wall may come back pretty healthy and strong, and Beal is still reasonably young. But it seems unlikely can compete at a very high level with a 19 year old coming in and I suspect that Wall and Beal don't want to wait for that pick to develop. The probable top 6 draft pick is our best asset to really upgrade in the shortish term.

The problem is that I can't see who we would trade the pick for who would come in and be that difference-maker. I imagine the best fit would be a young super 3-and-D SF-type, maybe like a younger Igoudala, but I don't see anyone who fits that bill and would be available. That said, the league is so different these days - players you never thought would be available suddenly are.

I'm not trying to turn this into a mini-trades thread. All I'm saying is that even with the new Sheriff Sheppard in town, if we are building around Wall and Beal there will be a huge temptation to trade the pick.

That is what Ernie would of done.

That is NOT the Plan.

[Illmatic12]

I hesitate to say this, but if the Wizards are building a team around Wall/Beal (and outside shooting bigs already on the roster), they likely will need to seriously consider trading the 2020 pick for someone ready to play at a high level in 2020-21 and 2021-22. Wall may come back pretty healthy and strong, and Beal is still reasonably young. But it seems unlikely can compete at a very high level with a 19 year old coming in and I suspect that Wall and Beal don't want to wait for that pick to develop. The probable top 6 draft pick is our best asset to really upgrade in the shortish term.

The problem is that I can't see who we would trade the pick for who would come in and be that difference-maker. I imagine the best fit would be a young super 3-and-D SF-type, maybe like a younger Igoudala, but I don't see anyone who fits that bill and would be available. That said, the league is so different these days - players you never thought would be available suddenly are.

I'm not trying to turn this into a mini-trades thread. All I'm saying is that even with the new Sheriff Sheppard in town, if we are building around Wall and Beal there will be a huge temptation to trade the pick.

That is what Ernie would of done.

That is NOT the Plan.

Ernie would trade the pick for Rudy Gay or something.

If we landed a top 10 pick and could flip it in a package for a YOUNG wing/forward on a cost-controlled deal, would that be worth looking at? For the right player, I think it would. Personally I’d check in on players like Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Aaron Gordon, Taurean Prince, Joe Harris to name a few. Obviously not trading the 2020 pick straight up for all those guys (and no I didn’t look up all their contract situations) , but it should be possible to construct a reasonable deal for both sides.

This is based on the premise that we can’t afford to wait for free agency, since it’s unlikely we will have enough cap room to lure a major difference-maker. And also based on the assumption that the top of the 2020 draft looks to be mostly loaded with guard prospects. We could use a young starting SF more than a guard, so flipping the pick may be a better way to improve our roster right away.

[payitforward]

Yeah... that's kind of a silly idea. & a bad one too.

I don't think it makes sense to think about "building a team around X/Y." Just take the time it takes, & get the best players possible.

[Illmatic12]

Yeah... that's kind of a silly idea. & a bad one too.

I don't think it makes sense to think about "building a team around X/Y." Just take the time it takes, & get the best players possible.

That’s exactly what the Wizards would be looking to do in a trade. Leveraging the value of an unknown draft prospect to acquire the best available young players. All depends on where the pick lands and who’s available on the trade market, of course

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Yeah... that's kind of a silly idea. & a bad one too.

I don't think it makes sense to think about "building a team around X/Y." Just take the time it takes, & get the best players possible.

That’s exactly what the Wizards would be looking to do in a trade. Leveraging the value of an unknown draft prospect to acquire the best available young players. All depends on where the pick lands and who’s available on the trade market, of course

This is basically where we were... Wall and Beal, with another guy... Otto. Or Oubre. Or Parker. If that's what we were doing why not just keep one of them? We have to move Wall. I gave a pretty detailed explanation before. Wall and Beal isn't going to work. We need a top tier player, like a top 8 player in the league to contend. Neither Beal or Wall are at that level. You can team Beal with that level of player and contend. You can team Wall with that level player and contend. But not Beal and Wall together. Wall was supposed to be that type of player when we drafted him, but he's not. He's good, he's not that good. And with both guys maxed, one has to go.

Ideally Wall comes back at a reasonably high percentage of what he was and we can deal him to a team that needs a PG in exchange for some package of expirings, so we can go after a big time free agent summer 2021.

[DCZards]

Yeah... that's kind of a silly idea. & a bad one too.

I don't think it makes sense to think about "building a team around X/Y." Just take the time it takes, & get the best players possible.

That’s exactly what the Wizards would be looking to do in a trade. Leveraging the value of an unknown draft prospect to acquire the best available young players. All depends on where the pick lands and who’s available on the trade market, of course

Jar81's point that the Zards might need to trade the 2020 lottery pick for a player (ideally a young one) ready to play at a high level is not one that's been discussed here...as far as I can tell. But I wouldn't rule it out. As you say illmatic12, it depends on who's available for the pick. Need to keep your options open.

[payitforward]

Well... obviously! Any asset can be traded. Any player can be traded. Any pick can be traded. But that's not the "point," neither Jar81's nor anyone's.

Certainly not yours, Zards: when someone suggests trading John Wall, your response it not that "it depends on who's available.... Need to keep your options open." It's to question why anyone would think that's a good idea.

The idea that this 30-win team is in a position where you trade long-term growth for "a piece" -- "someone ready to play at a high level..." is plain ridiculous (despite the fact that, duh, if you have the #10 pick & you're offered say KAT for it, sure...). You think you'll get someone "ready" to turn your 30-win team into a 38-win team? Not likely. & if you did, so what?

We are many players away from contending for anything at all -- even the #8 spot in the playoffs. Right now, the Washington Wizards are a bad team not a good team. That's why we won 32 games last year. Because we were & are bad. Not good.

Not anywhere near good either. Not, for example, within shouting distance of the top, say, 6 teams in the weaker Eastern Conference (Milwaukee, Toronto, Philly, Boston, Indiana & Brooklyn). Not as good as Orlando or Detroit. Unlikely to be as good as at least 2 of the Heat, Hawks & Bulls.

Edit: what we will be is young, fun to watch, & sometimes surprising. & long term, I hope, we will be trying to get good enough to contend for a title. To do that, we'll need our R1 draft pick next year -- for more than one year, because they'll be high picks for more than one year.

[DCZards]

Well... obviously! Any asset can be traded. Any player can be traded. Any pick can be traded. But that's not the "point," neither Jar81's nor anyone's.

Certainly not yours, Zards: when someone suggests trading John Wall, your response it not that "it depends on who's available.... Need to keep your options open." It's to question why anyone would think that's a good idea.

I haven’t opposed the idea of trading Wall. What I’ve expressed opposition to is deciding in 2019 that the Zards HAVE to trade Wall before or during the 2020-21 season. I prefer to wait and see what Wall and the team plays like when John returns.

I’ve NEVER taken off the table trading any player, including Beal.

[payitforward]

Well... obviously! Any asset can be traded. Any player can be traded. Any pick can be traded. But that's not the "point," neither Jar81's nor anyone's.

Certainly not yours, Zards: when someone suggests trading John Wall, your response it not that "it depends on who's available.... Need to keep your options open." It's to question why anyone would think that's a good idea.

I haven’t opposed the idea of trading Wall. What I’ve expressed opposition to is deciding in 2019 that the Zards HAVE to trade Wall before or during the 2020-21 season. I prefer to wait and see what Wall and the team plays like when John returns.

I’ve NEVER taken off the table trading any player, including Beal.

True enough. & I'm not trying to make a big deal out of this. Still in the trade thread, when trading Wall was suggested, you responded...

If Wall is healthy and playing well why would you trade him?...

Not suggesting that there's no deal that you would agree was good. But, your "set" is clearly not the neutral one you adopt about trading our next year's R1 pick.

This is ground we've been over before. In particular back when we traded for Kieff.

Perhaps it's no more than my own negative "set" about us trading away picks for "immediate help."

[verbal8]

Hypothetically, Barak could help with recruiting free agents, but what if he's really a Bulls fan - not sure I'd trust him to help the Wizards.

It that why they gave Porter away to the Bulls?