San Antonio rebuild (w/Atlanta, Detroit, Portland)

[babyjax13]

Scenario: the Spurs get off to a slow start and decide near the trade deadline to tear it down and get rebuilding pieces. I don't think this is super likely, but definitely within the realm of possibility.

San Antonio trades: Rudy Gay, DeMarre Carroll
Atlanta trades: Chandler Parsons, 2020 BYK 1st (1-14 protected thru 2022, otherwise 2022 2nd)
Atlanta improves their forward rotation, solidifies their position in the playoffs, and gets additional veteran leadership to continue building a winning culture. San Antonio turns role players into a pick. Buyout Parsons for roster space.

San Antonio trades: DeMar DeRozan, Patty Mills
Detroit trades: Reggie Jackson, Tony Snell, Langston Galloway, Khyri Thomas, Thon Maker, 2020 DET 1st (unprotected)
Spurs get a pick and two prospects for DeRozan and move Mills' contract. Detroit adds a third player that should put them in the top half of the playoff bracket in the East, plus a scoring combo guard that should synergize well with DeRozan/Griffin having the ball most of the time.

San Antonio trades: LaMarcus Aldridge
Portland trades: Hassan Whiteside, 2020 POR 1st (1-14 protected, 2 2nds)
Portland gets someone who is a lot better than Whiteside that can also play some power forward when Nurkic comes back. San Antonio gets a pick.

[Myth]

I like this for Portland. A rare time I have been fine with a LaMarcus back to Portland proposal.

[giberish]

In one sense the value for Atlanta looks very good - using a non-lotto pick to turn Parsons into useful players. But it's a big reach to have them worried about the playoffs midseason.

[Mykhyn]

Not the Spurs way.

Pretty sure Gay is going to retire a Spur.

3 late 1sts and no even remotely relevant prospects just doesn't make sense for this. Especially the 5 for 2 trade with Pistons when we have a full roster. Also we wouldn't be lowering return with Mills if we're rebuilding. He'd just help us bring our culture to the next generation.

Pistons would need to give up Sekou to get Derozan.

Blazers trade just doesn't make sense either. Rather let LMA walk at the end of his contract than take a massive step back and waste Pop's last years.

We already have a pretty complete young core. Dejounte/White/Walker/Keldon/Luka/Poeltl all fit perfect. Sekou is the only player on the teams in these trades that really fits in the core.


The only way something like this makes sense is if Pop retires before the trade deadline. Otherwise he's earned the right to go out with the best team possible.

[SmokeyPaw]

Dont see ATL as a playoff team this year before or after this trade. Holding onto the 1st makes more sense for a team that's stll rebuilding.

[mattao313]

Not the Spurs way.

Pretty sure Gay is going to retire a Spur.

3 late 1sts and no even remotely relevant prospects just doesn't make sense for this. Especially the 5 for 2 trade with Pistons when we have a full roster. Also we wouldn't be lowering return with Mills if we're rebuilding. He'd just help us bring our culture to the next generation.

Pistons would need to give up Sekou to get Derozan.

Blazers trade just doesn't make sense either. Rather let LMA walk at the end of his contract than take a massive step back and waste Pop's last years.

We already have a pretty complete young core. Dejounte/White/Walker/Keldon/Luka/Poeltl all fit perfect. Sekou is the only player on the teams in these trades that really fits in the core.


The only way something like this makes sense is if Pop retires before the trade deadline. Otherwise he's earned the right to go out with the best team possible.

Derozan isnt worth sekou or a unprotected 1st, he can opt out at the end of the season

[dms269]

I don't see Atlanta biting on this. Wing is already a position where Atlanta has a lot of depth (Huerter, Crabbe, Bembry, Hunter, Reddish, Turner, Carter) and adding two more means even less minutes for the young guys.

I don't see Carroll or Gay being the missing piece for this team. No reason to take on added long-term salary (Gay for additional year and Carroll for two more) and give up a first for pieces that won't make that much of an impact.

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[jayu70]

Pass - If the premise is the Hawks are close to or in the playoffs by the trade deadline, it means the core of Trae, Huerter and Collins have been playing well plus the Hawks are also getting significant contributions from their trio of 2019 rookies.

They should stay the course and keep their pick, not trade for 2 mid 30s guys with 'longish' term deals.

I'd me more interested in a deal for a younger player, a center - like Steven Adams.

[babyjax13]

Not the Spurs way.

Pretty sure Gay is going to retire a Spur.

3 late 1sts and no even remotely relevant prospects just doesn't make sense for this. Especially the 5 for 2 trade with Pistons when we have a full roster. Also we wouldn't be lowering return with Mills if we're rebuilding. He'd just help us bring our culture to the next generation.

Pistons would need to give up Sekou to get Derozan.

Blazers trade just doesn't make sense either. Rather let LMA walk at the end of his contract than take a massive step back and waste Pop's last years.

We already have a pretty complete young core. Dejounte/White/Walker/Keldon/Luka/Poeltl all fit perfect. Sekou is the only player on the teams in these trades that really fits in the core.


The only way something like this makes sense is if Pop retires before the trade deadline. Otherwise he's earned the right to go out with the best team possible.

The premise is that it just isn't working out at this point in the season. And I think this *is* the 'Spurs way.' They'd still be competetive night in and night out with the young players they have. If SAS extends DeRozan, then I suspect they could extract the kind of value you want. But I agree, the most likely scenario is they have no reason to jettison the vets.

[Resistance]

If it isn't working out for the Spurs, then that suggests at least one of the core players is not meeting expectations. So one of the core players being traded is going to bring back less than proposed by the OP.

[babyjax13]

If it isn't working out for the Spurs, then that suggests at least one of the core players is not meeting expectations. So one of the core players being traded is going to bring back less than proposed by the OP.

I don't think that's the case at all. If either regresses they are still worth what comes in return, they are just tricky players to build around and have expiring contracts, so the trade options are a bit limited.

[Resistance]

If it isn't working out for the Spurs, then that suggests at least one of the core players is not meeting expectations. So one of the core players being traded is going to bring back less than proposed by the OP.

I don't think that's the case at all. If either regresses they are still worth what comes in return, they are just tricky players to build around and have expiring contracts, so the trade options are a bit limited.

.............................2019-20.........2020-21............2021-22
LaMarcus Aldridge.......$26,000,000....$24,000,000....(15% Trade Kicker)
................................................$7,000,000.....(Partial Guarantee)

Hassan Whiteside.......$27,093,018...........................................
2020 POR 1st (1-14 protected, 2 2nds)



.............................2019-20.........2020-21............2021-22
DeMar DeRozan..........$27,739,975...$27,739,975..(Player Option).....
Patrick Mills..............$12,428,571...$13,285,714.........................

Reggie Jackson..........$18,086,956...........................................
Tony Snell................$11,392,857....$12,178,571.........................
Langston Galloway........$7,333,333...........................................
Thon Maker................$3,569,643...........................................
Khyri Thomas..............$1,416,852.....$1,663,861......$2,079,826.....
2020 DET 1st (unprotected)



.............................2019-20.........2020-21............2021-22
Rudy Gay...............$14,500,000.....$14,500,000.....................
DeMarre Carroll.........$7,000,000.......$6,650,000.......$7,000,000..(Non-Guaranteed)

Chandler Parsons......$25,102,511..........................................
2020 BYK 1st (1-14 protected thru 2022, otherwise 2022 2nd)


Building around an older player that is on the decline is very tricky and that is why I expect at least one of the trades to bring back less than you are projecting.

[babyjax13]

If it isn't working out for the Spurs, then that suggests at least one of the core players is not meeting expectations. So one of the core players being traded is going to bring back less than proposed by the OP.

I don't think that's the case at all. If either regresses they are still worth what comes in return, they are just tricky players to build around and have expiring contracts, so the trade options are a bit limited.

.............................2019-20.........2020-21............2021-22
LaMarcus Aldridge.......$26,000,000....$24,000,000....(15% Trade Kicker)
................................................$7,000,000.....(Partial Guarantee)

Hassan Whiteside.......$27,093,018...........................................
2020 POR 1st (1-14 protected, 2 2nds)



.............................2019-20.........2020-21............2021-22
DeMar DeRozan..........$27,739,975...$27,739,975..(Player Option).....
Patrick Mills..............$12,428,571...$13,285,714.........................

Reggie Jackson..........$18,086,956...........................................
Tony Snell................$11,392,857....$12,178,571.........................
Langston Galloway........$7,333,333...........................................
Thon Maker................$3,569,643...........................................
Khyri Thomas..............$1,416,852.....$1,663,861......$2,079,826.....
2020 DET 1st (unprotected)



.............................2019-20.........2020-21............2021-22
Rudy Gay...............$14,500,000.....$14,500,000.....................
DeMarre Carroll.........$7,000,000.......$6,650,000.......$7,000,000..(Non-Guaranteed)

Chandler Parsons......$25,102,511..........................................
2020 BYK 1st (1-14 protected thru 2022, otherwise 2022 2nd)


Building around an older player that is on the decline is very tricky and that is why I expect at least one of the trades to bring back less than you are projecting.

I guess I'm confused as to what is too much value here? Getting a first for Aldridge - even if he regresses some - seems pretty easy. Moving DeRozan for some OK but not super exciting prospects and a non-lotto pick (unless every player on Detroit's roster gets injured) seems pretty realistic too (maybe the pick gets some minor protections). People have made good points about the ATL trade, but that's obviously not the main aspect of the 'rebuild' (more of moving older players for young players and assets that complement what SAS already has in place). If they get less for either player, that's like trading them for essentially nothing.

[Resistance]

I don't think that's the case at all. If either regresses they are still worth what comes in return, they are just tricky players to build around and have expiring contracts, so the trade options are a bit limited.

.............................2019-20.........2020-21............2021-22
LaMarcus Aldridge.......$26,000,000....$24,000,000....(15% Trade Kicker)
................................................$7,000,000.....(Partial Guarantee)

Hassan Whiteside.......$27,093,018...........................................
2020 POR 1st (1-14 protected, 2 2nds)



.............................2019-20.........2020-21............2021-22
DeMar DeRozan..........$27,739,975...$27,739,975..(Player Option).....
Patrick Mills..............$12,428,571...$13,285,714.........................

Reggie Jackson..........$18,086,956...........................................
Tony Snell................$11,392,857....$12,178,571.........................
Langston Galloway........$7,333,333...........................................
Thon Maker................$3,569,643...........................................
Khyri Thomas..............$1,416,852.....$1,663,861......$2,079,826.....
2020 DET 1st (unprotected)



.............................2019-20.........2020-21............2021-22
Rudy Gay...............$14,500,000.....$14,500,000.....................
DeMarre Carroll.........$7,000,000.......$6,650,000.......$7,000,000..(Non-Guaranteed)

Chandler Parsons......$25,102,511..........................................
2020 BYK 1st (1-14 protected thru 2022, otherwise 2022 2nd)


Building around an older player that is on the decline is very tricky and that is why I expect at least one of the trades to bring back less than you are projecting.

I guess I'm confused as to what is too much value here? Getting a first for Aldridge - even if he regresses some - seems pretty easy. Moving DeRozan for some OK but not super exciting prospects and a non-lotto pick (unless every player on Detroit's roster gets injured) seems pretty realistic too (maybe the pick gets some minor protections). People have made good points about the ATL trade, but that's obviously not the main aspect of the 'rebuild' (more of moving older players for young players and assets that complement what SAS already has in place). If they get less for either player, that's like trading them for essentially nothing.

I am assigning some value to the Spurs reducing or completely eliminating future salary (depending on the trade) while you are assigning little to no value for that.

[babyjax13]

.............................2019-20.........2020-21............2021-22
LaMarcus Aldridge.......$26,000,000....$24,000,000....(15% Trade Kicker)
................................................$7,000,000.....(Partial Guarantee)

Hassan Whiteside.......$27,093,018...........................................
2020 POR 1st (1-14 protected, 2 2nds)



.............................2019-20.........2020-21............2021-22
DeMar DeRozan..........$27,739,975...$27,739,975..(Player Option).....
Patrick Mills..............$12,428,571...$13,285,714.........................

Reggie Jackson..........$18,086,956...........................................
Tony Snell................$11,392,857....$12,178,571.........................
Langston Galloway........$7,333,333...........................................
Thon Maker................$3,569,643...........................................
Khyri Thomas..............$1,416,852.....$1,663,861......$2,079,826.....
2020 DET 1st (unprotected)



.............................2019-20.........2020-21............2021-22
Rudy Gay...............$14,500,000.....$14,500,000.....................
DeMarre Carroll.........$7,000,000.......$6,650,000.......$7,000,000..(Non-Guaranteed)

Chandler Parsons......$25,102,511..........................................
2020 BYK 1st (1-14 protected thru 2022, otherwise 2022 2nd)


Building around an older player that is on the decline is very tricky and that is why I expect at least one of the trades to bring back less than you are projecting.

I guess I'm confused as to what is too much value here? Getting a first for Aldridge - even if he regresses some - seems pretty easy. Moving DeRozan for some OK but not super exciting prospects and a non-lotto pick (unless every player on Detroit's roster gets injured) seems pretty realistic too (maybe the pick gets some minor protections). People have made good points about the ATL trade, but that's obviously not the main aspect of the 'rebuild' (more of moving older players for young players and assets that complement what SAS already has in place). If they get less for either player, that's like trading them for essentially nothing.

I am assigning some value to the Spurs reducing or completely eliminating future salary (depending on the trade) while you are assigning little to no value for that.

Well...
1) DeRozan will opt out
2) Aldridge has one more year and 2020 isn't a good FA class, anyway

Dumping Mills has some value, but he isn't super overpaid.

[Chinook]

I am assigning some value to the Spurs reducing or completely eliminating future salary (depending on the trade) while you are assigning little to no value for that.

There isn't value to that. The Spurs are in a fine cap situation, with even their worst contract coming off the books before they have to make a decision on most of their young players.

Also as far as the trade goes, Portland has to give up way (yes, way) more than that for Aldridge. They definitely aren't getting away with a pick that quickly turns into seconds. Like, seriously, if the Spurs are tanking, they'll have a good first and a second way better than what Portland is going to give up, so there's zero reason to trade their best player for that.I place no value in Khyri Thomas, so the Detroit trade is pretty dead to me. I could understand a straight trade of DeRozan for expirings and a pick if the Pistons, but adding anything like Snell into the mix makes it harder.

Ultimately, I think both trades have the issue where SA already has a number of "lotto-ticket" prospects they already hand-picked and are developing. Their roster right now seems built to compete for the second or third round of the playoffs while developing their guys in a winning culture. Any trade involving them needs to either be a solid step toward contention or a way to acquire a true blue-chip prospect. Of course, if someone wants to move on, that's different. But in terms of what is actually in the best interest of the team, they can let guys walk without really impacting their future. I'd much rather keep the guys around and see if a legit win-now move falls into their laps than move them.

The Gay trade is just sort of weird. I don't think ATL is ready for those guys. The Warriors might be, though. I could see a three-team trade where Minny gets Russell, GS gets Gay and Carroll or Covington, and SA gets bad contracts and incentive. It's actually possible for the Warriors to get out of the tax if they finagle it correctly. I assume that might be something they try to avoid to reset their repeater-tax counter. Plus, they need forwards now more than ever.

[jbk1234]

Attaching Mills to DeRozan is a good way to crater his trade value. DeRozan could opt out and the team will be left with Mills

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[Mykhyn]

Not the Spurs way.

Pretty sure Gay is going to retire a Spur.

3 late 1sts and no even remotely relevant prospects just doesn't make sense for this. Especially the 5 for 2 trade with Pistons when we have a full roster. Also we wouldn't be lowering return with Mills if we're rebuilding. He'd just help us bring our culture to the next generation.

Pistons would need to give up Sekou to get Derozan.

Blazers trade just doesn't make sense either. Rather let LMA walk at the end of his contract than take a massive step back and waste Pop's last years.

We already have a pretty complete young core. Dejounte/White/Walker/Keldon/Luka/Poeltl all fit perfect. Sekou is the only player on the teams in these trades that really fits in the core.


The only way something like this makes sense is if Pop retires before the trade deadline. Otherwise he's earned the right to go out with the best team possible.

Derozan isnt worth sekou or a unprotected 1st, he can opt out at the end of the season

Nothing else gets him to pistons.

[Resistance]

I am assigning some value to the Spurs reducing or completely eliminating future salary (depending on the trade) while you are assigning little to no value for that.

There isn't value to that. The Spurs are in a fine cap situation, with even their worst contract coming off the books before they have to make a decision on most of their young players.

Also as far as the trade goes, Portland has to give up way (yes, way) more than that for Aldridge. They definitely aren't getting away with a pick that quickly turns into seconds. Like, seriously, if the Spurs are tanking, they'll have a good first and a second way better than what Portland is going to give up, so there's zero reason to trade their best player for that.I place no value in Khyri Thomas, so the Detroit trade is pretty dead to me. I could understand a straight trade of DeRozan for expirings and a pick if the Pistons, but adding anything like Snell into the mix makes it harder.

Ultimately, I think both trades have the issue where SA already has a number of "lotto-ticket" prospects they already hand-picked and are developing. Their roster right now seems built to compete for the second or third round of the playoffs while developing their guys in a winning culture. Any trade involving them needs to either be a solid step toward contention or a way to acquire a true blue-chip prospect. Of course, if someone wants to move on, that's different. But in terms of what is actually in the best interest of the team, they can let guys walk without really impacting their future. I'd much rather keep the guys around and see if a legit win-now move falls into their laps than move them.

The Gay trade is just sort of weird. I don't think ATL is ready for those guys. The Warriors might be, though. I could see a three-team trade where Minny gets Russell, GS gets Gay and Carroll or Covington, and SA gets bad contracts and incentive. It's actually possible for the Warriors to get out of the tax if they finagle it correctly. I assume that might be something they try to avoid to reset their repeater-tax counter. Plus, they need forwards now more than ever.

I am assigning some value to the Spurs reducing or completely eliminating future salary (depending on the trade) while you are assigning little to no value for that.

There isn't value to that. The Spurs are in a fine cap situation, with even their worst contract coming off the books before they have to make a decision on most of their young players.

I didn't say that the Spurs are in a bad cap situation, so refrain from creating strawmen to attack.

If the Spurs decide next summer that they want to move on from Aldridge, there is still a $7 million partial guarantee that will be paid to him and charged against the SA 2020-21 team salary. If they don't have that to deal with, then they could possibly take on a minor salary dump such as Felicio ($7.5 million) for compensation and be at almost the same exact spot in regards to team salary. So there is value in not having to pay a player that is going to be waived.

Also as far as the trade goes, Portland has to give up way (yes, way) more than that for Aldridge. They definitely aren't getting away with a pick that quickly turns into seconds. Like, seriously, if the Spurs are tanking, they'll have a good first and a second way better than what Portland is going to give up, so there's zero reason to trade their best player for that.I place no value in Khyri Thomas, so the Detroit trade is pretty dead to me. I could understand a straight trade of DeRozan for expirings and a pick if the Pistons, but adding anything like Snell into the mix makes it harder.

A huge majority of the older veterans were on the roster last season, so things starting slow because they are getting familiar with each other isn't going to be a valid excuse.

..................................2019-20......2020-21..............2021-22
DeMar DeRozan..............$27,739,975....$27,739,975 (PO)................
LaMarcus Aldridge...........$26,000,000....$24,000,000 (Partial Guarantee)
Rudy Gay......................$14,500,000...$14,500,000......................
Patrick Mills..................$12,428,571....$13,285,714...................
DeMarre Carroll...............$7,000,000......$6,650,000.....$7,000,000 (Only new older veteran)
Marco Belinelli................$5,846,154..........................................


Last season, the Spurs were 48 - 34.

From the OP

Scenario: the Spurs get off to a slow start and decide near the trade deadline to tear it down and get rebuilding pieces. I don't think this is super likely, but definitely within the realm of possibility.

There is no mention of extensive injury problems holding the Spurs back this season unlike last season with Murray.


Here is my first post in this thread.

If it isn't working out for the Spurs, then that suggests at least one of the core players is not meeting expectations. So one of the core players being traded is going to bring back less than proposed by the OP.

The trade deadline is

Feb. 6 -- NBA Trade Deadline (3 p.m. ET)

and the Spurs will have played approximately 50 games. If the combination of DDR, LMA, Gay and Carroll aren't able to have the Spurs in a favorable position for the playoffs in late January, then that suggests that at least one of them is not meeting expectations and should bring back less than what the OP suggested in his trade proposal.

[Chinook]

I didn't say that the Spurs are in a bad cap situation, so refrain from creating strawmen to attack.

If the Spurs decide next summer that they want to move on from Aldridge, there is still a $7 million partial guarantee that will be paid to him and charged against the SA 2020-21 team salary. If they don't have that to deal with, then they could possibly take on a minor salary dump such as Felicio ($7.5 million) for compensation and be at almost the same exact spot in regards to team salary. So there is value in not having to pay a player that is going to be waived.

It's not a straw man. You're trying to argue the Spurs should consider saving money as a legit benefit. That's false. There's nothing better to spend the money on, so it doesn't make sense for them to do so just for the sake of it. They also wouldn't waive Aldridge, who is worth $17 Million easily even if he isn't worth $24 Million (he is). It wasn't a good point, and attacking the motivation behind it isn't a straw man.

[T]he Spurs will have played approximately 50 games. If the combination of DDR, LMA, Gay and Carroll aren't able to have the Spurs in a favorable position for the playoffs in late January, then that suggests that at least one of them is not meeting expectations and should bring back less than what the OP suggested in his trade proposal.

First, there are ways to get off to a slow start that have nothing to do with guys aging. If DeRozan twists and ankle and misses a month, there's no reason to expect that to be the start of a decline. The West is supposed to be a blood bath this year, so a missed month for the second-best player on the team could be enough to have the Spurs (or literally any other team in the conference) in 10th at the ASB. Two years ago, you had the Spurs drop from third in the West to seventh because Aldridge missed a couple of gimme games, and you had the Wolves rise to third before ended up eight because Butler got hurt. Short-term issues like that can hinder the season without it being some definitive sign that you're just going to get worse from here.

You are correct that the OP supposes the Spurs decide to rebuild for some reason even though that is out of character for PATFO. That's not your fault. But unless we are going completely fanficky and deciding the Spurs are going to turn into a Hinkie-like organization, I don't see them putting emphases on the same things you are. Like they aren't going to care about LMA's dead money. They've been carrying dead money for the last four or five years rather than trying to make a trade to save it. If they were willing to do that when they actually needed the money, why would they do that if when they were tanking? Of course, if LMA is injured or something, the Spurs might try to get out of his money in order to pivot to another player. But that's not really what the OP supposes.

Finally, this isn't the player's "top value". Aldridge without any further decline is worth way more than an expiring and a first that quickly conveys into seconds. He's the Spurs' best player and has a long way to slide down before that trade is tempting. DeRozan might be worth the overall value of that package, but the sheer inconvenience of that trade makes it impractical, and when you simplify it, Detroit wouldn't even be offering positive value, let alone enough to get DeRozan if he's playing well. The Gay trade again isn't really one I consider practical for ATL, so I'm not really trying to debate that value. That's the other side where your point doesn't make sense. This OP already supposed the players were already being sold at a discount, so you suggesting they aren't all playing at their best doesn't really change that.