#22 - GOAT peaks project (2019)

[No-more-rings]

I would still like to hear the case for 1990 Ewing/Barkley over Giannis. I think DatAsh said Barkley had “two to three times” the offensive impact, and I cannot really see support for that by their actual production. But everyone else has kind-of glossed over it.

I’m not sure about Barkley vs Giannis, but for me Ewing still was a better defender than Giannis, and if his scoring game gets shut down i don’t think it’s as detrimental as if it happens to Giannis. On offense Giannis is better sure, but being a dpoy caliber guy in a league where Gobert, and Draymond are the top suspects compared to a league with Drob, Hakeem, Rodman, etc. isn’t really the same.

What supports Ewing being a DPoY-calibre player in 1990? That is my point. People are selecting 1990 because of Ewing’s offence, even though his defence was clearly a ways off his 1993-94 peak and was probably the worst defensive year of his career... so what makes his offence + defence better than Giannis’s that year?

What makes Giannis offense + defense better?

Giannis team had a 108.2 drtg without him which would’ve been good for the 6th rated defense, and a -3.7 lift just again sounds like lower end dpoy caliber guy. I don’t know of any data for Ewing’s defense that year, so maybe there’s some assumption involved that he was at least close to his other defensive years.

On the other hand, you probably could still argue that Ewing’s offense was better, with the resiliency he showed vs good to great defenses in the playoffs. Winning a series against a team with 7 more wins and a much higher SRS also isn’t really something that Giannis could say.

[freethedevil]

I’m talking individuals,

Yes and an individual defender would have to be better today to retain the impact they would have had in the 90's. If a player has atg defensive impact in a league where it's harder to have that impact(which is why you're calling ewing an atg defender), then that's even more impressive.

How is it harder to have defensive impact today? For a center I don’t see much basis for that, and for supreme talents like the guys we’re talking they would adapt in any era, so this seems like a non-point to me.

How is it a non-point hen you’re Saying Giannis defense is less impressive cause Robinson > green is a cross era arguments. And it’s harder because offensive players are more verstaike and rules have made defending harder. Not that I understand what the point of bringing up defenders here is since Ewing didn’t defend against defenders he defended against attackers. How he compares to other defenders doesn’t matter

[Morb]

I would still like to hear the case for 1990 Ewing/Barkley over Giannis.

Giannis played 2358 minutes, his PER is inflated.
Ewing played 3165 minutes, Barkley - 3085.

[cecilthesheep]

I would still like to hear the case for 1990 Ewing/Barkley over Giannis. I think DatAsh said Barkley had “two to three times” the offensive impact, and I cannot really see support for that by their actual production. But everyone else has kind-of glossed over it.

I’m not sure about Barkley vs Giannis, but for me Ewing still was a better defender than Giannis, and if his scoring game gets shut down i don’t think it’s as detrimental as if it happens to Giannis. On offense Giannis is better sure, but being a dpoy caliber guy in a league where Gobert, and Draymond are the top suspects compared to a league with Drob, Hakeem, Rodman, etc. isn’t really the same.

What supports Ewing being a DPoY-calibre player in 1990? That is my point. People are selecting 1990 because of Ewing’s offence, even though his defence was clearly a ways off his 1993-94 peak and was probably the worst defensive year of his career... so what makes his offence + defence better than Giannis’s that year?

This time gap between his offensive and defensive peaks is exactly what makes Ewing so tough for me. I've wanted to put him on my ballot for some time but there's no individual year I can justify as being all-around better than a few other guys on my list. If Ewing's best offensive and best defensive years were combined, he'd likely be several spots higher.

[liamliam1234]

I did not really care about voting this round, seeing as Moses ran away with it (no complaints), but it looks like we are still a few votes away from 12, so I will do my part.

1. 2019 Kawhi Leonard
Reasons detailed throughout thread, but concisely, elevated perpetual second-round exit/chokers into a title team on back of one of the best scoring runs in NBA history (arguably the best in a title-winning season). Strong leadership, major offensive load, excellent clutch performances. One of the weakest modern title leaders, sure... but still a title-leader.

2. 2019 Giannis Antetokounmpo
Best regular season remaining, in my opinion. Better than other competitors in fewer minutes, which should be considered the opposite of a negative; maaaaybe if there were fragility concerns, I could see the case, but up until this season he was a perpetual minutes leader, so that  “analysis” seems lazy. Made conference finals and lost close series to champions, which is basically as good as every non-winner left as far as accomplishment. MVP and DPoY runner-up is best hardware of remaining non-title candidates. Best impact metrics remaining. Value offence more than Ewing’s by a fair bit, especially considering level of competition (where is the indication Ewing would have done any better against Marc Gasol given what happened to Embiid, his closest modern comparison?). Comparing relative defence is tougher, but I think Ewing loses that comparison in 1990, and I think his 1993-94 iteration is not better by enough of a gap to make up for the offensive disadvantage.

3. 2007 Steve Nash
For the next thread I will probably try to put together a thorough post making his case. But in short, immense offensive impact comfortably exceeding... basically everyone... Generally dominates SRS and WOWY metrics. Incredible ceiling raiser, with scoring acumen to still provide respectable floor. Great leadership, and reasonable prior and future history of captaining deep playoff runs (consider this combination the Chris Paul bonus). Little indication defensive limitations notably impacted the Suns defence; should be considered lack of advantage rather than specific negative. For 2007 specifically, seemed to be final level of gradual evolution from 2005. Playoff run was imperfect, but egregious situational context explains it in part, and the playoff passing was at its apex. Kind-of frustrating to see a three way vote split, but all three have fair cases, and if Kawhi and Giannis manage to make it in, those other seasons will receive my next votes.

[No-more-rings]

When does Harden start getting traction for you guys?

Aside from 2016 Steph Curry, he had likely the best offensive regular season of the past couple decades, and he still held his own in the playoffs even if he did see a dip in production.

Most seem to have KD’s peak over his when I don’t even see the argument honestly. Kd’s top attribute is far and away scoring, and 2019 Harden at least matches if not surpasses Kd’s best scoring season.

[liamliam1234]

Soon-ish. After my next three, it becomes uncertain again, but I think he is in the same general tier as Paul and Barkley and Ewing and Westbrook and Durant and Davis and Mourning and KMalone. Although voting patterns seem to indicate Harden will be admitted after half of them, before I even start to consider those votes for myself.

[cecilthesheep]

When does Harden start getting traction for you guys?

Aside from 2016 Steph Curry, he had likely the best offensive regular season of the past couple decades, and he still held his own in the playoffs even if he did see a dip in production.

Most seem to have KD’s peak over his when I don’t even see the argument honestly. Kd’s top attribute is far and away scoring, and 2019 Harden at least matches if not surpasses Kd’s best scoring season.

I think KD's scoring is more sustainable against game planning and generally tighter playoff defense, and KD is also a positive defender (for all Harden's improvement, he's still significantly worse than most guys we're now considering)

[No-more-rings]

When does Harden start getting traction for you guys?

Aside from 2016 Steph Curry, he had likely the best offensive regular season of the past couple decades, and he still held his own in the playoffs even if he did see a dip in production.

Most seem to have KD’s peak over his when I don’t even see the argument honestly. Kd’s top attribute is far and away scoring, and 2019 Harden at least matches if not surpasses Kd’s best scoring season.

I think KD's scoring is more sustainable against game planning and generally tighter playoff defense, and KD is also a positive defender (for all Harden's improvement, he's still significantly worse than most guys we're now considering)

Pre-Golden state (which i think most would agree is to be taken with a grain of salt), Kd seen similar dips in his scoring in the playoffs. And if you’re knocking Harden for his defense fine, then you probably shouldn’t be voting for Barkley either already(not saying you are).

[cecilthesheep]

When does Harden start getting traction for you guys?

Aside from 2016 Steph Curry, he had likely the best offensive regular season of the past couple decades, and he still held his own in the playoffs even if he did see a dip in production.

Most seem to have KD’s peak over his when I don’t even see the argument honestly. Kd’s top attribute is far and away scoring, and 2019 Harden at least matches if not surpasses Kd’s best scoring season.

I think KD's scoring is more sustainable against game planning and generally tighter playoff defense, and KD is also a positive defender (for all Harden's improvement, he's still significantly worse than most guys we're now considering)

Pre-Golden state (which i think most would agree is to be taken with a grain of salt), Kd seen similar dips in his scoring in the playoffs. And if you’re knocking Harden for his defense fine, then you probably shouldn’t be voting for Barkley either already(not saying you are).

Took a look at Durant's pre-GSW playoff numbers and I have to say, I was fairly surprised by what I found and may have to reevaluate some stuff:

Durant during All-Star years in OKC, regular season: 29.0 points per 75 on 62.1% TS
Playoffs during same time span: 26.9 points per 75 on 57.5% TS
Net dropoff: -2.1 pp75, -4.6% TS

Harden during All-Star years, regular season: 28.9 points per 75 on 61.0% TS
Playoffs during same time span: 27.4 points per 75 on 56.9% TS
Net dropoff: -1.5 pp75, -4.1% TS

... damn, Harden probably still has worse individual moments, but overall i'm floored by how much KD actually dropped off. Might dig into how they each did past the first round later .

And yeah i'm not voting for Barkley yet, and it is, at least in significant part, because of his defense. Although it bears mentioning that KD pre-GSW wasn't as good of a defender as he became later on. Is there a case he actually peaked in Golden State?

[liamliam1234]

I think it is kind-of impossible to judge based on postseason, whereby Durant was generally great in 2012 and 2013 (efficiency dip, but anomalously high passing), kind-of disappointing in 2014 and 2016, and then suddenly on the most talented roster ever assembled he becomes one of the all-time greatest postseason performers. I fully expect Durant to be voted in before I consider him, but if I do it will be for 2012 or 2013. It is certainly conceivable that he peaked with the Warriors, where he passed and defended better (at least for spurts), but he also did it in an environment where it was laughably easy to focus on those other skills.

[No-more-rings]

I think 2014 is KD’s clear peak, at least for me. He lost some quickness and athleticism it seemed after that injury early in the 2015 season, while its true that he got smarter and more active defensively I really think it’s only because of how much easier life was on the other end.

It just seems 2014 is the “put it all together year”, 2013 just slightly behind. In 2017 he missed like 20ish regular season games plus 2 in the playoffs, should also be noted how weak their competition was for him to put up those numbers.

I mean, the 41 win Blazers with an abominable 24th ranked defense

He only played 2 games against the Jazz who were a good team but no real threat to contenders

The Spurs who went mostly without Kawhi, that Spurs without Kawhi is like a mid to high 40s win squad at most as shown how they won 47 and 48 the next 2 seasons. And we can see without Kawhi they were no real playoff threat, getting bounced by the Nuggets and a Curry-less Warriors. I know they were still a good defense without Kawhi but without him Durant could and would have a field day, then don’t get me started on how bad the Cavs defense was.

Meanwhile in 2014 he faced a healthy peak form Grizzlies, who would’ve been better than 50 wins and the 7th ranked defense if Allen and Gasol didn’t miss a bunch of games. The Clippers he tore a new one as he should, but then had to face the championship Spurs where he was facing a peakish defensive Kawhi with Duncan under the rim.

And none of that even mentions how much less spacing he had to work with.

[freethedevil]

When does Harden start getting traction for you guys?

Way down. Just from his era alone I'm thinking seasons of kd, giannis, kawhi, and maybe davis? I also might be partial to westrbook.
Also nash imo. CP might have a case too.

[E-Balla]

When does Harden start getting traction for you guys?

Way down. Just from his era alone I'm thinking seasons of kd, giannis, kawhi, and maybe davis? I also might be partial to westrbook.
Also nash imo. CP might have a case too.

Not to mention Dwight, and while I don't agree I know many will vote Dray over him.

[freethedevil]

When does Harden start getting traction for you guys?

Way down. Just from his era alone I'm thinking seasons of kd, giannis, kawhi, and maybe davis? I also might be partial to westrbook.
Also nash imo. CP might have a case too.

Not to mention Dwight, and while I don't agree I know many will vote Dray over him.

yeah dwight too

[LA Bird]

Moses has lead this round from the start and since there has also only been one vote over the last 48 hours, I will close this now instead of continuing to wait for more votes.

1) 83 Moses = 19.5 points
2) 90 Ewing = 11.0 points
3) 19 Kawhi = 7.5 points
T4) 93 Barkley = 6.0 points
T4) 08 Paul = 6.0 points

83 Moses wins.

Spoiler:

freethedevil didn't include a 3rd pick so his vote wasn't counted.

[cecilthesheep]

Moses has lead this round from the start and since there has also only been one vote over the last 48 hours, I will close this now instead of continuing to wait for more votes.

1) 83 Moses = 19.5 points
2) 90 Ewing = 11.0 points
3) 19 Kawhi = 7.5 points
T4) 93 Barkley = 6.0 points
T4) 08 Paul = 6.0 points

83 Moses wins.

Spoiler:

freethedevil didn't include a 3rd pick so his vote wasn't counted.

It's academic, but just for the record, I believe Mikan should have 7.5 points from my vote

[LA Bird]

Moses has lead this round from the start and since there has also only been one vote over the last 48 hours, I will close this now instead of continuing to wait for more votes.

1) 83 Moses = 19.5 points
2) 90 Ewing = 11.0 points
3) 19 Kawhi = 7.5 points
T4) 93 Barkley = 6.0 points
T4) 08 Paul = 6.0 points

83 Moses wins.

Spoiler:

freethedevil didn't include a 3rd pick so his vote wasn't counted.

It's academic, but just for the record, I believe Mikan should have 7.5 points from my vote

Each player season is totaled separately so your vote gave 4.5 points to 49 Mikan and 3.0 points to 50 Mikan, not 7.5 points to Mikan overall.

[cecilthesheep]

Moses has lead this round from the start and since there has also only been one vote over the last 48 hours, I will close this now instead of continuing to wait for more votes.

1) 83 Moses = 19.5 points
2) 90 Ewing = 11.0 points
3) 19 Kawhi = 7.5 points
T4) 93 Barkley = 6.0 points
T4) 08 Paul = 6.0 points

83 Moses wins.

Spoiler:

freethedevil didn't include a 3rd pick so his vote wasn't counted.

It's academic, but just for the record, I believe Mikan should have 7.5 points from my vote

Each player season is totaled separately so your vote gave 4.5 points to 49 Mikan and 3.0 points to 50 Mikan, not 7.5 points to Mikan overall.

Oh duh. My bad lol