Mia/ Bos / Okc Blockbuster!

[BBallFreak]

Why does Winslow need to be included to make it happen?

On this point you are correct. Winslow doesn't need to be included. However...

OKC
In: Dragic, Olynyk
Out: CP3

Miami
In: CP3
Out: Dragic, Olynyk

..........................2019-20.........2020-21..........2021-22
Chris Paul.............$38,506,482.....$41,358,814....$44,211,146 (PO)

Goran Dragic..........$19,217,900.....................................
Kelly Olynyk............$12,667,886....$13,198,244..................
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
.........................$31,885,786.....$13,198,244..................


$31,885,786 * 1.25 = $39,857,233

$39,857,233 + $100,000 = $39,957,233

It appears to be a CBA compliant trade with over $1.4 million to spare. Miami would have some luxury tax concerns, but they would be smart to find some other way to lower the team salary than just giving Winslow away for no compensation.

It's not a compliant trade. Miami is hard capped due to the Butler sign and trade and cannot go over that thresh hold, not even for a minute. James Johnson's inclusion (rather than Winslow's) makes the deal legal, but even then Miami has no desire to make this deal. We want to be free agent players in two years. As it stands now we can. After this trade? Nope. And what do we get for it? A guy who hasn't played more than 62 games in 3 years, is already 34 years old and declining, and will be due $44 million when he's 37 years old. That's just a hard pass...

I wanted to get some sleep and was trying to wrap it up, so I missed the hard cap issue from the Butler trade. Adding Meyers Leonard to the Dragic and Olynyk package would have Miami sending out $43,172,301 in salary versus the incoming $38,506,482 of CP3.


..........................2019-20.........2020-21..........2021-22
Chris Paul.............$38,506,482.....$41,358,814....$44,211,146 (PO)

Goran Dragic..........$19,217,900.....................................
Kelly Olynyk............$12,667,886....$13,198,244..................
Meyers Leonard.......$11,286,515.....................................
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
.........................$43,172,301.....$13,198,244



It wasn't my trade idea and I knew that Miami wouldn't do it. I wish that people would think twice before posting "Homer" trade ideas in this forum.

You are correct that that trade would work from a legalistic standpoint, but even then we don't touch it. I really don't think anything OKC offers gets CP3 in Miami...

[Andrew McCeltic]

OKC would shed substantial salary by turning Adams/Paul into Dragic, Olynyk, and Hayward.. Thanks for the notes, though

[BBallFreak]

OKC would shed substantial salary by turning Adams/Paul into Dragic, Olynyk, and Hayward.. Thanks for the notes, though

And shedding substantial salary means they should sacrifice Adams' value?

And you still haven't explained why Miami should just give you Justise Winslow...

[Andrew McCeltic]

OKC would shed substantial salary by turning Adams/Paul into Dragic, Olynyk, and Hayward.. Thanks for the notes, though

And shedding substantial salary means they should sacrifice Adams' value?

And you still haven't explained why Miami should just give you Justise Winslow...

1. Yes? Otherwise Adams would be nowhere near the trade market. They’d be using his value to cut salary commitments.

2. I know, I acknowledged that in my first post, where I said the deal was poor for Boston and thought Adams/Winslow was better value.

[BBallFreak]

OKC would shed substantial salary by turning Adams/Paul into Dragic, Olynyk, and Hayward.. Thanks for the notes, though

And shedding substantial salary means they should sacrifice Adams' value?

And you still haven't explained why Miami should just give you Justise Winslow...

1. Yes? Otherwise Adams would be nowhere near the trade market. They’d be using his value to cut salary commitments.

2. I know, I acknowledged that in my first post, where I said the deal was poor for Boston and thought Adams/Winslow was better value.

1) No, that's not how that works. First, you're not the ones getting stuck with the awful contract. You are, in fact, shedding a slightly better awful contract. Second, while they would need to add sweetener to move Paul, they shouldn't be trading Adams to do it, and the sweetener wouldn't go to you. They'd be better off keeping Paul and trading off the pieces around him. Just like you guys with Hayward. You won't get anything of value for him because his value is in the negatives.

2) You said they should basically add a little sweetener but didn't elaborate, nor did you acknowledge that it would require a lot of sweetener to both teams in order to get the type of deal you want.

Your trade is awful for everyone but Boston. Forgive other fans for pointing that out.

[Andrew McCeltic]

And shedding substantial salary means they should sacrifice Adams' value?

And you still haven't explained why Miami should just give you Justise Winslow...

1. Yes? Otherwise Adams would be nowhere near the trade market. They’d be using his value to cut salary commitments.

2. I know, I acknowledged that in my first post, where I said the deal was poor for Boston and thought Adams/Winslow was better value.

1) No, that's not how that works. First, you're not the ones getting stuck with the awful contract. You are, in fact, shedding a slightly better awful contract. Second, while they would need to add sweetener to move Paul, they shouldn't be trading Adams to do it, and the sweetener wouldn't go to you. They'd be better off keeping Paul and trading off the pieces around him. Just like you guys with Hayward. You won't get anything of value for him because his value is in the negatives.

2) You said they should basically add a little sweetener but didn't elaborate, nor did you acknowledge that it would require a lot of sweetener to both teams in order to get the type of deal you want.

Your trade is awful for everyone but Boston. Forgive other fans for pointing that out.

Why has Miami been linked to Chris Paul more than once? He’s an awful contract, but he’s a different value proposition to the Heat than anyone else, for the same reason they’ve been rumored to be willing to take on Wall’s money with Beal. They have a rich owner, they have a record of pulling rabbits out of hats, and they have a bunch of smaller contracts to trade, but they don’t have any draft picks to spare and they need to leverage their ability to take on salary to upgrade a roster that’s gone all in on Butler. Beal/Wall is their best play, but it’s not an option, and they missed on Westbrook already.

OKC can obviously look at other deals, they can hold course, but unless they want to bundle their picks with big contracts - Adams/picks for DAR? Chris Paul for Wiggins, or Kevin Love? - getting out of those deals is probably their best bet.

Adams will hold value, they could probably move him and Gallo on their own at the deadline for different contracts and pick up some assets. But they have to move on CP as soon as possible - unless he gets fully healthy and shows he’s got longevity, his trade value goes in the tank a year from now and then creeps back up as his contract gets shorter.

I think OKC either coughs up a pair of picks or decides to move Adams’ money in the same transaction, but they’re hoping Miami blinks first.

I’m basing this on the idea Hayward will show he’s back in form by early October - otherwise, Boston would have to add significant value. As is, it could be something like one OKC pick to Miami and one (probably the Bucks’ pick) from Boston to Miami.

And if Hayward is healthy, he could go to Miami for Winslow/filler, with the filler headed out west for Adams..

[gom]

If Hayward is healthy, why wouldn't the Celtics keep him? They signed him after all. I doubt the Heat are interested at all.

The narrative about *missing* with Westbrook sounds very funny to the Heat fan base. Most of us feel we dodged a bullet.

As for the discussion with OKC about Chris Paul, Miami isn't "blinking" because there is no need for him. Yes, we did sign Shaq when he was 32 years-old (paying him $27.7m), but 31-year-old Shaq (11 years out of 12 as an all-star) led the league in eFG%. Chris Paul at $38.5m (heading for $47m) is not the same kind of deal at all. I was surprised OKC took Houston's offer, but now they'll have to live with consequences. Hopefully, he will play well for them. Plus games with Houston should be a lot of fun!

[Andrew McCeltic]

If Hayward is healthy, why wouldn't the Celtics keep him? They signed him after all. I doubt the Heat are interested at all.

The narrative about *missing* with Westbrook sounds very funny to the Heat fan base. Most of us feel we dodged a bullet.

As for the discussion with OKC about Chris Paul, Miami isn't "blinking" because there is no need for him. Yes, we did sign Shaq when he was 32 years-old (paying him $27.7m), but 31-year-old Shaq (11 years out of 12 as an all-star) led the league in eFG%. Chris Paul at $38.5m (heading for $47m) is not the same kind of deal at all. I was surprised OKC took Houston's offer, but now they'll have to live with consequences. Hopefully, he will play well for them. Plus games with Houston should be a lot of fun!

Moving a healthy Hayward would be acknowledging that the team’s timeline has changed since he signed two summers ago, and handing Brown and Tatum the chance to take their licks and grow this season with higher usage. No guarantee that’s what Boston will do, I think they’ll play it by ear and could move Jaylen Brown instead..

Re: Miami, it just looks like they’re buyers.. I have a hard time imagining them not making another move.

[BBallFreak]

If Hayward is healthy, why wouldn't the Celtics keep him? They signed him after all. I doubt the Heat are interested at all.

The narrative about *missing* with Westbrook sounds very funny to the Heat fan base. Most of us feel we dodged a bullet.

As for the discussion with OKC about Chris Paul, Miami isn't "blinking" because there is no need for him. Yes, we did sign Shaq when he was 32 years-old (paying him $27.7m), but 31-year-old Shaq (11 years out of 12 as an all-star) led the league in eFG%. Chris Paul at $38.5m (heading for $47m) is not the same kind of deal at all. I was surprised OKC took Houston's offer, but now they'll have to live with consequences. Hopefully, he will play well for them. Plus games with Houston should be a lot of fun!

Moving a healthy Hayward would be acknowledging that the team’s timeline has changed since he signed two summers ago, and handing Brown and Tatum the chance to take their licks and grow this season with higher usage. No guarantee that’s what Boston will do, I think they’ll play it by ear and could move Jaylen Brown instead..

Re: Miami, it just looks like they’re buyers.. I have a hard time imagining them not making another move.

Of course, we're going to make another move! But Chris Paul isn't it, and if he were, we'd be taking heavy compensation in the process. We would not be giving up Justise Winslow to make the move. In fact, given his skill set (3&D with ball-handling) you'd have to think we wouldn't be looking to move him at all. He's too valuable. Nothing Boston is going to offer is going to land him there, IMO...

[ThunderBolt]

The narrative about *missing* with Westbrook sounds very funny to the Heat fan base. Most of us feel we dodged a bullet.

I was surprised OKC took Houston's offer, but now they'll have to live with consequences. Hopefully, he will play well for them. Plus games with Houston should be a lot of fun!

These two statements really summarize the inconsistent opinions around Paul and Westbrook. On one hand okc fans heard that Westbrook might be untradeable. Was it Lowe who said okc needed to attach assets to move him? Okc got two picks, two pick swaps and less long term salary.

Also, Russ couldn’t lead a lineup without George last year. Chris Paul was elite in lineups without harden. I can live with those consequences.

[BBallFreak]

The narrative about *missing* with Westbrook sounds very funny to the Heat fan base. Most of us feel we dodged a bullet.

I was surprised OKC took Houston's offer, but now they'll have to live with consequences. Hopefully, he will play well for them. Plus games with Houston should be a lot of fun!

These two statements really summarize the inconsistent opinions around Paul and Westbrook. On one hand okc fans heard that Westbrook might be untradeable. Was it Lowe who said okc needed to attach assets to move him? Okc got two picks, two pick swaps and less long term salary.

Right, because you took a worse contract. Most thought you would be looking for a rebuilding package. Good for you for getting the picks, though. I mean that. You guys have a treasure trove.

Problem is, will they be valuable?

Also, Russ couldn’t lead a lineup without George last year. Chris Paul was elite in lineups without harden. I can live with those consequences.

Until CP3 misses his customary 22 games and, being that he's your best player in spite of his decline, you're just good enough to barely miss the playoffs.

It's a bold choice of direction - to not pick a direction. It's kind of Miami's strategy too, so I can't really fault it...

[ThunderBolt]

The narrative about *missing* with Westbrook sounds very funny to the Heat fan base. Most of us feel we dodged a bullet.

I was surprised OKC took Houston's offer, but now they'll have to live with consequences. Hopefully, he will play well for them. Plus games with Houston should be a lot of fun!

These two statements really summarize the inconsistent opinions around Paul and Westbrook. On one hand okc fans heard that Westbrook might be untradeable. Was it Lowe who said okc needed to attach assets to move him? Okc got two picks, two pick swaps and less long term salary.

Right, because you took a worse contract. Most thought you would be looking for a rebuilding package. Good for you for getting the picks, though. I mean that. You guys have a treasure trove.

Problem is, will they be valuable?

Also, Russ couldn’t lead a lineup without George last year. Chris Paul was elite in lineups without harden. I can live with those consequences.

Until CP3 misses his customary 22 games and, being that he's your best player in spite of his decline, you're just good enough to barely miss the playoffs.

It's a bold choice of direction - to not pick a direction. It's kind of Miami's strategy too, so I can't really fault it...

Chris Paul is supposedly so bad that he’s the worst contract but too good for okc to tank. He’s the worst contact in the league but he had greater impact without harden than Westbrook had without George. And he’s owed less! You wouldn’t feel that way if the situation were reversed because it makes no sense.


If Paul misses 22 games and Gallo is traded, please explain how okc can barely miss the playoffs? That is absurd. Okc is better than Memphis, phx and maybe Minn. That’s it.

[BBallFreak]

Chris Paul is supposedly so bad that he’s the worst contract but too good for okc to tank. He’s the worst contact in the league but he had greater impact without harden than Westbrook had without George. And he’s owed less! You wouldn’t feel that way if the situation were reversed because it makes no sense.

He's not the worst contract in the league. That's John Wall. He's probably the second worst. You have to consider his age, attitude, and injury history. He's 34 years old and will be making $44 million at 37, he has lockerroom issues, and he hasn't played more than 62 games in three years. Those are real problems.

If Paul misses 22 games and Gallo is traded, please explain how okc can barely miss the playoffs? That is absurd. Okc is better than Memphis, phx and maybe Minn. That’s it.

You're assuming that Gallo will be traded, but if your front office is pushing for the playoffs, or even just to make it respectable as most believe, then they're not trading Gallo. You guys will be pushing for the 35-40 win area and end up at the back of the lottery. BTW, the East does exist, and in the same lottery system as your Thunder, and NY, Cleveland, the Hornets, Washington, and Chicago could all be worse than you.

[ThunderBolt]

Chris Paul is supposedly so bad that he’s the worst contract but too good for okc to tank. He’s the worst contact in the league but he had greater impact without harden than Westbrook had without George. And he’s owed less! You wouldn’t feel that way if the situation were reversed because it makes no sense.

He's not the worst contract in the league. That's John Wall. He's probably the second worst. You have to consider his age, attitude, and injury history. He's 34 years old and will be making $44 million at 37, he has lockerroom issues, and he hasn't played more than 62 games in three years. Those are real problems.

If Paul misses 22 games and Gallo is traded, please explain how okc can barely miss the playoffs? That is absurd. Okc is better than Memphis, phx and maybe Minn. That’s it.

You're assuming that Gallo will be traded, but if your front office is pushing for the playoffs, or even just to make it respectable as most believe, then they're not trading Gallo. You guys will be pushing for the 35-40 win area and end up at the back of the lottery. BTW, the East does exist, and in the same lottery system as your Thunder, and NY, Cleveland, the Hornets, Washington, and Chicago could all be worse than you.

Okc has to spend money on someone. That’s really not an issue. Shai isn’t needing a big pay. There aren’t other parts of the core in place yet unless Bazley is a surprise. Either Chris Paul plays well and increases his value. Or if he sucks, then each year that goes by the contract is easier to move. I just don’t see the dilemma. I think locker room issues are overstated but well see.

In regard to Gallo, there is nothing whatever that suggest okc is trying to make the playoffs. Presti has said the rebuild hasn’t started yet because they tear down isn’t done. However, there is no indication that okc is attempting to make the playoffs. Rather the comments infer there is more bottoming out ahead.

Yes okc competed against the east teams for a better pick. However we just saw with the knicks that tanking all year for Zion isn’t an ideal strategy with the new draft odds. Going for the worst record in the league is kind of pointless now. I would rather okc not have the 14th pick but they have assets to move up if they want someone else. I'm not saying the CP3 situation is ideal but there is no reason for okc to make any move that doesn't benefit them.

[gom]

The narrative about *missing* with Westbrook sounds very funny to the Heat fan base. Most of us feel we dodged a bullet.

I was surprised OKC took Houston's offer, but now they'll have to live with consequences. Hopefully, he will play well for them. Plus games with Houston should be a lot of fun!

These two statements really summarize the inconsistent opinions around Paul and Westbrook. On one hand okc fans heard that Westbrook might be untradeable. Was it Lowe who said okc needed to attach assets to move him? Okc got two picks, two pick swaps and less long term salary.

Also, Russ couldn’t lead a lineup without George last year. Chris Paul was elite in lineups without harden. I can live with those consequences.

Not really. Westbrook & Paul both have prohibitive contracts for the Heat. By OKC trading Westbrook's bad contract for Paul's worse contract, however, they deserve compensation. Houston also had to trade Paul. They were over the barrel because Paul & Harden were publicly feuding, and Harden is Houston's marquis player, a candidate for MVP every season the last few years. What else could they do?

Miami's team looks pretty good to me. The Heat should have enough for the postseason this time around, but the smart move is to find out what they can do with this team and build its value, rather than trading for yesterday's players. Both Bam & Winslow could take a step forward and become the kind of complement player Miami would otherwise need to search for on the market to play beside Butler. JJ, Waiters, & Dragic are likely leading the second team. It could be a whole lot worse. Herro & Okpala represent future development, and Miami has other guys (older) like Nunn & Robinson who can play roles. I can see Pat & the FO making a deal at the deadline (probably trading Dragic) to get under the tax and then next offseason (when Miami has three expiring players to deal, along with likely a future pick and a young player), the Heat will go for another star to play alongside Butler. It's his team now, but there is no hurry.

And, yes, I do think Chris Paul will need to be dealt, because if you play him he will keep OKC close. The Thunder is not a bad team. Gallinari and Adams are two good players. Shai played his heart out for the Clippers. Those Thunder picks are not even guaranteed lottery picks. You basically just traded George for Gallo and Westbrook for Paul. It's not jumping off a cliff. Not yet.

[ThunderBolt]

The narrative about *missing* with Westbrook sounds very funny to the Heat fan base. Most of us feel we dodged a bullet.

I was surprised OKC took Houston's offer, but now they'll have to live with consequences. Hopefully, he will play well for them. Plus games with Houston should be a lot of fun!

These two statements really summarize the inconsistent opinions around Paul and Westbrook. On one hand okc fans heard that Westbrook might be untradeable. Was it Lowe who said okc needed to attach assets to move him? Okc got two picks, two pick swaps and less long term salary.

Also, Russ couldn’t lead a lineup without George last year. Chris Paul was elite in lineups without harden. I can live with those consequences.

Not really. Westbrook & Paul both have prohibitive contracts for the Heat. By OKC trading Westbrook's bad contract for Paul's worse contract, however, they deserve compensation. Houston also had to trade Paul. They were over the barrel because Paul & Harden were publicly feuding, and Harden is Houston's marquis player, a candidate for MVP every season the last few years. What else could they do?

Miami's team looks pretty good to me. We should have enough for the postseason this time around, but the smart move is to find out what we have, rather than trading for yesterday's players. Both Bam & Winslow could take a step forward and become the kind of complement player we would otherwise need to search on the market to put beside Butler. JJ, Waiters, & Dragic are likely leading the second team. It could be a whole lot worse. Herro & Okpala represent future development, and we have other guys (older) like Nunn & Robinson who can play roles. I can see us making a deal at the deadline (probably trading Dragic) to get under the tax and then next offseason (when we have three expiring players to deal, along with likely a future pick and a young player), we'll go for another star to play alongside Butler. It's his team now, but there is no hurry.

And, yes, I do think Chris Paul will need to be dealt, because if you play him he will keep OKC close. The Thunder is not a bad team. Gallinari and Adams are two good players. Shai played his heart out for the Clippers. Those Thunder picks are not even guaranteed lottery picks. You basically just traded George for Gallo and Westbrook for Paul. It's not jumping off a cliff.

I can live with most of what you said except for the last two sentences which is mainly what I'm responding to. OKC has picks and pick swaps going out until 2026 and you are dismissing them as nothing. Even if they aren't lotto picks, they still aren't worthless. However its crazy to act like anyone knows one way or the other. The nba gets turned upside down every year. Go back 5 years ago and the Warriors weren't even a thing yet but somehow 4-6 years from now okc picks and swaps are not likely guaranteed lotto picks? How can you even speculate more than two years?

I like the chances of them being lotto picks more than I like the possibility of George and Leonard as well as Russ and Harden still playing together for their respective teams. Russ might not be in the league any more by that time. He looked soooo bad at times last year.

Also, carmelo projections show Shai as a future all star. He was the crown jewel of the trade.

We got time and assets for more than a half decade. I keep reading these nonstop worst case scenarios for okc that are just ridiculous. "Paul sucks and its a problem." "Paul is too good." "OKC's pick will all amount to nothing." Its non stop doomsday scenarios with okc. Maybe cheseapeake energy arena will get swallowed up by a giant sink hole too. I know I'm partial but there doesn't seem to be any other team that seems so damned if they do, damned if they don't by so many people. Yet the reality is much different than that.

Lastly, If I'm a miami fan, I'm ok with not trading for Russ or CP3. However if also wouldn't take on wall even if it got me beal.

[Andrew McCeltic]

If Hayward is healthy, why wouldn't the Celtics keep him? They signed him after all. I doubt the Heat are interested at all.

The narrative about *missing* with Westbrook sounds very funny to the Heat fan base. Most of us feel we dodged a bullet.

As for the discussion with OKC about Chris Paul, Miami isn't "blinking" because there is no need for him. Yes, we did sign Shaq when he was 32 years-old (paying him $27.7m), but 31-year-old Shaq (11 years out of 12 as an all-star) led the league in eFG%. Chris Paul at $38.5m (heading for $47m) is not the same kind of deal at all. I was surprised OKC took Houston's offer, but now they'll have to live with consequences. Hopefully, he will play well for them. Plus games with Houston should be a lot of fun!

Moving a healthy Hayward would be acknowledging that the team’s timeline has changed since he signed two summers ago, and handing Brown and Tatum the chance to take their licks and grow this season with higher usage. No guarantee that’s what Boston will do, I think they’ll play it by ear and could move Jaylen Brown instead..

Re: Miami, it just looks like they’re buyers.. I have a hard time imagining them not making another move.

Of course, we're going to make another move! But Chris Paul isn't it, and if he were, we'd be taking heavy compensation in the process. We would not be giving up Justise Winslow to make the move. In fact, given his skill set (3&D with ball-handling) you'd have to think we wouldn't be looking to move him at all. He's too valuable. Nothing Boston is going to offer is going to land him there, IMO...

I love Winslow, I think he’s still trending upward, but.. cutting bait on him to get a “star” seems like exactly the kind of thing a team ramping up to compete would do. I could see the Heat settling for Chris Paul. Maybe the pressures on all these teams are different than what I’m gauging them to be, but..

[BBallFreak]

Moving a healthy Hayward would be acknowledging that the team’s timeline has changed since he signed two summers ago, and handing Brown and Tatum the chance to take their licks and grow this season with higher usage. No guarantee that’s what Boston will do, I think they’ll play it by ear and could move Jaylen Brown instead..

Re: Miami, it just looks like they’re buyers.. I have a hard time imagining them not making another move.

Of course, we're going to make another move! But Chris Paul isn't it, and if he were, we'd be taking heavy compensation in the process. We would not be giving up Justise Winslow to make the move. In fact, given his skill set (3&D with ball-handling) you'd have to think we wouldn't be looking to move him at all. He's too valuable. Nothing Boston is going to offer is going to land him there, IMO...

I love Winslow, I think he’s still trending upward, but.. cutting bait on him to get a “star” seems like exactly the kind of thing a team ramping up to compete would do. I could see the Heat settling for Chris Paul. Maybe the pressures on all these teams are different than what I’m gauging them to be, but..

Chris Paul is not that star, and if he were OKC would be getting him.

[Andrew McCeltic]

So who is it? The plan is to wait until mid season and hope that a good trade opens up?

[BBallFreak]

So who is it? The plan is to wait until mid season and hope that a good trade opens up?

Why would I know that? Seriously, I am not Pat Riley, and I doubt even he knows because it's far more likely to be a disgruntled star who demands out rather than someone out there right now.

And even if it were a situation of Paul being the only guy available, that doesn't mean you get to swoop in and steal Justise Winslow. We have no desire, nor a need for that matter, to give him up in a trade for Chris Paul. They, in fact, should be paying us for taking Paul, and even then, I personally wouldn't want him...