The Newfound Genius of the Bulls Management?

[MGB8]

I was listening to an interview of the Warriors owner on NBA radio last week, and his comments about the new NBA, analytics, and the 3 point shot really struck me. He pointed out that the Warrirors (and many other teams) have fully embraced the fact that 3 points is 50% more than 2 points, and that they almost don't care when an opposing team scores a 2 point bucket against them - because it isn't a 3.

That line of thinking hit me like a lightening bolt. With the combination of hand check rules and zone, perimeter movement has been enabled while interior scoring has been impaired. The old style Rondo point guard, even the Nash/Stockton style explore, draw and create - because the optimal play is an open 3 point shot to a shooter who shoots them at over 40% overall and over 66% when wide open. If a guy can shoot 3s at over 66% when wide open, then that shot is always going to be worth more than dumping the ball to the open guy right under the basket who converts the 2 at 99% (with the 1% being a blown dunk or whatever).

Think about the implications. Then think about how, starting with the Jimmy Butler trade for LaVine and to move up and get Markkanen, the Bulls have adapted to that change in the game - the "new NBA."

LaVine's smooth athleticism and shooting / scoring mix is almost ideal for the new NBA. He lacks a touch in terms of what you would like to see in terms of defensive length, but he his great perimeter skills, and ability to punish defense if they really do "take away the open 3" via both passing or getting to the basket - are ideal.

Markkanen is conceptually similar. Lacks ideal defensive length, but his height at his position and shooting ability, and own ability to punish teams for "taking away the open 3... with enough athleticism to guard the perimeter... that's what the new NBA is about.

Carter Jr. ... well, you do need some defense, where his switching ability and length are of vital importance in the new NBA. Offensively, the appeal of Carter Jr. was the good form on his shot and projection to be a strong 3 point shooter in time.

Otto Porter was a master stroke. He's near ideal in the new NBA. Amazing range, can punish defenses for taking away the open 3, and has the length you are looking for to defend.

Coby White was the default pick - my guess is that they would have preferred Garland or Culver - but given promising shooting ability shown in college (despite the tourney drop-off and the struggles in summer league, but still showing good form)... same sort of "high fit" player - not just for the team overall, but for the "new NBA."

Satoransky - ideal fit. Kornett. Yeah, him too as a reserve. Even Thad Young, more a "leadership and defense" get than for "new NBA fit" has dramatically improved his shooting from range from the non-3 pt shooter he was during the first half (or more) of his career. Even the flier on Blakeny was consistent with understanding that the game has changed. Heck, so was the Valentine pick, and Hutchison was supposed to be a 3&D guy due to his solid shooting his final two years at Boise St.

Maybe the Bulls can't contend with this group due to lack of the highest end talent... sure. But it won't be due to a roster that isn't tailored to the game as it is now being played.

[The Senator]

I'd hardly call reading and reacting to the current trends in the league "genius."

They do deserve some plaudits for some of the recent moves, dumping Parker and Portis for Porter was a great transaction for the Bulls, Satoransky could well turn out to be a great pickup and if LaVine and Markkanen live up to a reasonable potential curve, they'll be good weapons going forward. I'd say the Bulls went from being a laughingstock, with failed tanks, head scratching coaching decisions and an incredibly underwhelming outlook to having an outside chance at having a decent season. As it is, I've gone from complete apathy to constrained interest in this off season. I'll always be a fan of the team no matter how much I hate the Reinsdorf group and how much frustration the Bulls have caused through the last few decades. But it'll hopefully be a lot easier to follow and support the team if these positive trends can yield some quality results.

[League Circles]

Yeah, nobody is a genius for figuring out the very basic relative quality of a three point shot.

The open attempt at the basket (dunk or layup) is always the best shot attempt.

Besides the fact that guys don't hit over 66% on open threes (I assume?), there is the certainty aspect of it and how that translates to playing with a lead and what it does to make an opponent desperate and make mistakes. Basically even when percentages are equal, because of how the game unfolds incrementally in real time, the lower variance outcome is preferred over the higher variance one, projected return being equal.

[Ferulci]

It says a lot about what the fanbase went through when reacting to current trend is called "genius".

[Hangtime84]

I’m more a fan of the inverted four man. Allows PGs to focus on scoring more and bigs have to move away from the basket.

I.e Griffin and Green.

[MrFortune3]

There is no genius is so badly constructing a roster that you have to fire your hand picked coach and then you finally wake up to the reality that you have to change.

[Hangtime84]

There is no genius is so badly constructing a roster that you have to fire your hand picked coach and then you finally wake up to the reality that you have to change.

There’s a problem with consistently being unaware of the times.

They were wrong with over valuing Noah, signing boozer (need for back basket player), and building team around guys who couldn’t shoot but needed the ball ( Lakers also showed how terrible that was.

Chicago was moving that direction with McBuckets and Niko picks. However dougie couldn’t adapt to the NBA fast enough and Snelly cat was inconsistent. This combined with a stubborn coach who didn’t realize Entire NBA was using his own schemes and changing rosters to combat against it was a recipe for more disappointment.

I’ve been screaming for more positionlesss basketball for years here. Finally we made to transition to move on. These are the type of rosters and style nba superstars are joining. Boylen if he was a recent hire from the spurs organization fans would screaming in happiness but we had Fred here while he was the Ast.

[TheFinishSniper]

People who dont know how to run organization cannot be newfound geniuses. I mean just think logically.Even if you are bit on slower side with enough time and we all have time you will get to that conclusion eventually.

[drosereturn]

Think about the implications. Then think about how, starting with the Jimmy Butler trade for LaVine and to move up and get Markkanen, the Bulls have adapted to that change in the game - the "new NBA."

I dont think this move is genius. Rather, they had an ailing Butler and nobodies just like Westbrook and OKC falling apart and were forced to rebuild. Lavine was a player they missed on but badly wanted back then, and the Bulls have a long history of players they liked in draft night. Now that I think about, there were a lot of posters arguing for rebuilding around Jimmy which was really dumb.
We will see how that turns out in Miami since thats when all he gets paid.

What Bulls mgt did was adapt to the new NBA very late to the part after GS won everything. Joining the meta isnt some extraordinary effort but what they did for this yrs free agency was near genius level.
Basically signed Otto like a FA while trading Sato for scraps. Basically stole 2 best Wizard starters for nothing but again they exploited WASH mgt like Ainge did. So, its hard to tell whether they had a forward thinking or was it just a coincidence they made a good move?

[VolumePoster]

And here I thought this was another Sato hype thread

[MrSparkle]

Genius? I don’t know if it was intentional or not, but Chicago had a small ball (at SG and PF) cast that could shoot 3Ps from 06-09, but they had horrible coaches and didn’t make any much needed moves to sort the rotation and log-jams.

In their minds, a “low-post scorer” was the missing piece, while Boston (KG, Horry), LAL (Odom) and Orlando (Turkoglu/Lewis) were contending with tweener forwards shooting 3Ps.

In reality, they should’ve gotten a quality staff like Thibs/Adams earlier

I don’t think there’s anything genius about GarPax’s execution between 06-17. And thus they start this trend now, but I’ll say it again — you’re not winning games if Lavine is your #1 option.

And to do it now... sheesh, welcome to the party 10 years later.

I’ve maintained that wing/tweener defense is equally important to 3P shooting. Thus why Niko and Lauri are neutrals unless they play their best defense. And why Doug sucked.

[jump]

Let's not quibble over the word genius. The Bulls have made very good moves in a relative short time the past couple of years, after the collapse of the Rose years efforts, the hope that they could retool around Butler and add shooters with McBuckets and Niko. Had those two lived up to their perceived potential, we wold be a different team now. Management dragged that as far as they could and it didn't work. Then they made an excellent move with the Butler trade. Dunn hasn't done it, but two out of three players they got are excellent building blocks. That was an outstanding trade. Otto, Wendell, Young, Sato, White are all better than solid moves. Rebuilds take time and I laud the FO for getting us where we are already. Genius? Whatever. We are a very exciting young team that could well rise to the top of the division in a couple of short years. I'm impressed and very happy about where we are now.

[coldfish]

I'll say this, the team is better than even most of its fans acknowledge. They were 1st on offense for a month and were 7-8 with Otto. To that team they will remove Lopez and a bunch of scrubs and add Wendell, Coby, Sato, Thad and Kornett.

As long as they share the ball, the Bulls will be tough to stop.

[Kurt Heimlich]

OP feels Lloyd Christmas shouting out "we landed on the moon!"

Yes, the game is all about 3 point efficiency and thus also the ability to switch/defend the 3. This was news in maybe 2014-2015. Calling our management "genius" for getting on board 3-4 years later is pretty sweet sarcasm at best.

[ShadyMoney]

I agree with sparkle

[kingkirk]

I don't disagree with much of the OP but this thread title is way too strong for me.

[ArtMorte]

I've been happy with their recent decisions. I think our team is actually very good for a team that doesn't have a superstar, not even an all-star yet.

We also seem to have a clear idea of getting good shooters in the team, actually bringing in players that fit each other's styles. The coach is my biggest worry going into the season; he's got the tools but can he use them?

[sco]

I've been happy with their recent decisions. I think our team is actually very good for a team that doesn't have a superstar, not even an all-star yet.

We also seem to have a clear idea of getting good shooters in the team, actually bringing in players that fit each other's styles. The coach is my biggest worry going into the season; he's got the tools but can he use them?

I'm not sold yet on Kingpin, but I was somewhat encouraged by apparent buy-in by guys after the early mutiny and slow, but noticeable improvement by end of year. I am encouraged that we replaced a few of the weaker asst coaches with seemingly better guys.

Team needs to be fortunate health-wise to have a good season...obvious, but has been such a problem in recent years.

[MrFortune3]

There is no genius is so badly constructing a roster that you have to fire your hand picked coach and then you finally wake up to the reality that you have to change.

There’s a problem with consistently being unaware of the times.

They were wrong with over valuing Noah, signing boozer (need for back basket player), and building team around guys who couldn’t shoot but needed the ball ( Lakers also showed how terrible that was.

Chicago was moving that direction with McBuckets and Niko picks. However dougie couldn’t adapt to the NBA fast enough and Snelly cat was inconsistent. This combined with a stubborn coach who didn’t realize Entire NBA was using his own schemes and changing rosters to combat against it was a recipe for more disappointment.

I’ve been screaming for more positionlesss basketball for years here. Finally we made to transition to move on. These are the type of rosters and style nba superstars are joining. Boylen if he was a recent hire from the spurs organization fans would screaming in happiness but we had Fred here while he was the Ast.

The McDermott pick pissed me off no end. Then to top it off, we draft the exact 2 players I wanted with those picks and traded them(I supposed we picked for Denver either way but still)

[MrSparkle]

There is no genius is so badly constructing a roster that you have to fire your hand picked coach and then you finally wake up to the reality that you have to change.

There’s a problem with consistently being unaware of the times.

They were wrong with over valuing Noah, signing boozer (need for back basket player), and building team around guys who couldn’t shoot but needed the ball ( Lakers also showed how terrible that was.

Chicago was moving that direction with McBuckets and Niko picks. However dougie couldn’t adapt to the NBA fast enough and Snelly cat was inconsistent. This combined with a stubborn coach who didn’t realize Entire NBA was using his own schemes and changing rosters to combat against it was a recipe for more disappointment.

I’ve been screaming for more positionlesss basketball for years here. Finally we made to transition to move on. These are the type of rosters and style nba superstars are joining. Boylen if he was a recent hire from the spurs organization fans would screaming in happiness but we had Fred here while he was the Ast.

The McDermott pick pissed me off no end. Then to top it off, we draft the exact 2 players I wanted with those picks and traded them(I supposed we picked for Denver either way but still)

It really was a "Don't do it GarPax!" from-a-mile-away kind of a forecast, at least for most on this board who realized that McDermott's NCAA success had many classic warning signs (too slow to guard wings and guards, too small to play NBA PF, high usage, mediocre defense). But what especially sucked was how many great options there were in the entire draft: Zach, Saric, Nurkic, Harris, Bogdanovic, Capella. Maybe they wouldn't have played much under Thibs anyway, and the Jimmy hostilities would've caused drama/breakdowns anyway, but it sure would've helped to have 1 if not 2 good players to transition out the mess. Frankly I think Harris, Warren or Hood would've cracked the wing rotation.