What an 80% KD Means to Me

[kamaze]

I keep my expectations low I'll be satisfied with another post season. Go Nets!

[gigantes]

This isn't a particularly KD-specific comment, but I'm getting pretty tired of Nets fan's borderline premature victory dance, re: this coming season.

It almost sounds like for this coming season, if the Nets don't start strong out of the gate and/or if they don't hit 50 wins, and/or if they don't challenge for the conference title, then once again fans will be calling for Kenny's head. And regardless of all that, getting to the finals sounds like it's also expected in year two of Kyrie-Durant.

TBF, I can indeed see all the positives working out, and the Nets possibly winning the trophy in either of the next two seasons. But I can just as easily see a load of things not working out as well as fans were assuming, starting with KD's rehab and how he performs when he's back. But I also see a major factor in terms of our top three guys all having serious injury histories, and that kind of thing possibly coming back to bite one or more of them.

Also, it seems like there's a major piece of reality that fans are kind of sleeping on, and it starts with the fact that the Nets were a 28-win team just the season before last, with collective talent that arguably didn't even match that win total. The cupboard was pretty much empty, and players like Harris, DWid & LeVert were in many ways longshots who might possibly turn in to something down the road, but were still major longshots by most expertise.

In other words, the 42-win Nets were hardly a 'solid, perennial playoff team' that only needed a couple more pieces to become a finals contender. In fact, it seems to me like fans are kinda, suddenly sleeping on the fact that only a series of miracle moves in desperate straits got the team back in to the playoffs, to the surprise of almost everyone. And all we have is one playoff series in the bank, at this point.

My point here is that even with the new guys, this isn't a traditionally loaded team (like the Sixers, Celts or Raps) with years of chemistry (given all our new guys this season), with injury a non-looming concern. As I see it, in reality, this is still a team with its fair share of question marks across the board that could in fact struggle to meet fan expectations.

It's also a team of pretty mediocre defenders (speaking of DWid & Harris), with the two best players also presenting some potential challenges in terms of fitting in chemistry-wise, so to speak, another major area of concern.

Me? I'm hoping for the best, but prepared if things get rocky... is what I'm trying to say, I guess. It's going to be super-annoying though if there's some rockiness, and a big section of the fanbase starts brattily calling for Kenny's head or some other stupid sh-t like that, such as putting down various players. Been there, done that. One thing I know for sure is that this team busts its collective ass, and if things don't live up to your dreams in the coming season(s), the problem likely isn't the team, but you.

[/rant that's been slowly fed across this summer]

with no KD this team has a 40-44 win floor. and a nba finals ceiling. we have the second best player in the conference, a super deep loaded team of guys who fit perfectly, and an elite coach

we should dominate, even with injuries

I mean, you're doing it right there, dude.

"NBA finals ceiling" is what roughly eight (and likely more) teams in the league are telling themselves at the start of every season. Big, hairy, honking deal.

> super deep loaded team of guys who fit perfectly

Haha, only thing missing there is Kool-Aid Man bursting through the wall to deliver some Tropical Fruit Punch (c).

Reality check, Prok: this is still a deeply transitional team, with loads of questions about "fit." (did you actually read my comment just above?) I mean, how can "fit" NOT be a question mark, when almost half the roster is newcomers, and the two top players have major histories upon "fit?"

Before you or anyone twists that immediately, all I'm really advocating for is a relatively unbiased attitude of "let's see what happens and try to roll with it." Is that so terrible?

[MrDollarBills]

I think that this team is going to slap regardless of KD. KD is just going to send us into overdrive. Lots of good guards. three point shooters. rim rolling bigs. oh lord our offensive rating will be beautiful

[gigantes]

I think that this team is going to slap regardless of KD. KD is just going to send us into overdrive. Lots of good guards. three point shooters. rim rolling bigs. oh lord our offensive rating will be beautiful

I hope so.

One thing I did leave out of the equation is that Kenny's Nets consistently develop through each off-season. That's not something you can say with every team. IMO it's totally reasonable in that sense to expect improvement from our returning players.

@Prok,
apologies, that was a borderline dickish comment of mine above.

[MrDollarBills]

I think that this team is going to slap regardless of KD. KD is just going to send us into overdrive. Lots of good guards. three point shooters. rim rolling bigs. oh lord our offensive rating will be beautiful

I hope so.

One thing I did leave out of the equation is that Kenny's Nets consistently develop through each off-season. That's not something you can say with every team. IMO it's totally reasonable in that sense to expect improvement from our returning players.

@Prok,
apologies, that was a borderline dickish comment of mine above.

Rodi aside (I don't know how his summer has gone with his legal troubles probably having an impact), I'm fairly confident we'll see some nice progression from Allen, LeVert, and Dinwiddie. Interested to see what kind of work Prince has been doing too.

[ecuhus1981]

I have to say, I absolutely LOVE how this thread has aged!

gigantes, I appreciate your input, and I think it's warranted. I'm WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY out in front of anyone's expectations on Kyrie, and even I see that this season could go sideways on us in a hurry. From a deep-stats perspective, most projections have us in the 38-win range. Without anyone actively mentioning it, we're banking on the young members of our rotation to develop into plus-shooters, -rebounders and -defenders, when to this point they have not shown to be above-average contributors in these departments.

If:

-- we can't find an answer at the 4,
-- DJ is too slow and JA is too scrawny to defend Embiid/Vucevic/Turner/Gasol/Lopez/Drummond,
-- Caris fails to thrive off-ball,
-- Taurean can't find a position,
-- Rodi really did it
-- Spencer and KI don't mesh in close-out situations

We can easily end up in the mid-30's for wins. It sounds crazy to take such a drastic step back in the W-L column after overhauling nearly every spot, but other than at PG, those are long-term improvements that may not yield immediate gains.

I still feel that KD, the once and future king, is going to return, and that we are going to win a championship this season. But I can objectively say that among the 10 teams with legit title hopes, we have by far the lowest floor, lower than even Houston.

[Prokorov]

If:

-- we can't find an answer at the 4

we dont have a 4 spot we play to wings at forward

-- DJ is too slow and JA is too scrawny to defend Embiid/Vucevic/Turner/Gasol/Lopez/Drummond,

100% irrelevant. we had not one to gaurd them last year and no one is going to beat you posting up 40 times a game. we won 42 games last year with 0 to stop the guys you mentioned

-- Caris fails to thrive off-ball,

irrelevant, we played fine without him in the lineup last year let alone with him not quite meshing 100%

-- Taurean can't find a position

he is a forward

-- Rodi really did it

hurts but not a -10 to -20 win difference

[/quote]
-- Spencer and KI don't mesh in close-out situations[/quote]

neither did russell and kyrie

We can easily end up in the mid-30's for wins. It sounds crazy to take such a drastic step back in the W-L column after overhauling nearly every spot, but other than at PG, those are long-term improvements that may not yield immediate gains.

our floor if everything goes wrong is 40-42 wins. unless kyrie misses like 60+ game this is a .500+ playoff team with a NBA finals ceiling

[ecuhus1981]

You can call the positions whatever you like, you are who you guard. One the the wing-forwards is going to be primarily responsible for defending 4's. None of the 4's on our roster have been average defenders, although they certainly have the potential.

You're so dismissive of legitimate flaws with this team, yet you must find scores of them with other teams, if you feel that the floor of this one is a .500 team. Expound.

[MrDollarBills]

Barring disastrous injuries this roster is better than last year's so I have a hard time thinking that we will be 4 games worse than last season.

[Prokorov]

This isn't a particularly KD-specific comment, but I'm getting pretty tired of Nets fan's borderline premature victory dance, re: this coming season.

It almost sounds like for this coming season, if the Nets don't start strong out of the gate and/or if they don't hit 50 wins, and/or if they don't challenge for the conference title, then once again fans will be calling for Kenny's head. And regardless of all that, getting to the finals sounds like it's also expected in year two of Kyrie-Durant.

TBF, I can indeed see all the positives working out, and the Nets possibly winning the trophy in either of the next two seasons. But I can just as easily see a load of things not working out as well as fans were assuming, starting with KD's rehab and how he performs when he's back. But I also see a major factor in terms of our top three guys all having serious injury histories, and that kind of thing possibly coming back to bite one or more of them.

Also, it seems like there's a major piece of reality that fans are kind of sleeping on, and it starts with the fact that the Nets were a 28-win team just the season before last, with collective talent that arguably didn't even match that win total. The cupboard was pretty much empty, and players like Harris, DWid & LeVert were in many ways longshots who might possibly turn in to something down the road, but were still major longshots by most expertise.

In other words, the 42-win Nets were hardly a 'solid, perennial playoff team' that only needed a couple more pieces to become a finals contender. In fact, it seems to me like fans are kinda, suddenly sleeping on the fact that only a series of miracle moves in desperate straits got the team back in to the playoffs, to the surprise of almost everyone. And all we have is one playoff series in the bank, at this point.

My point here is that even with the new guys, this isn't a traditionally loaded team (like the Sixers, Celts or Raps) with years of chemistry (given all our new guys this season), with injury a non-looming concern. As I see it, in reality, this is still a team with its fair share of question marks across the board that could in fact struggle to meet fan expectations.

It's also a team of pretty mediocre defenders (speaking of DWid & Harris), with the two best players also presenting some potential challenges in terms of fitting in chemistry-wise, so to speak, another major area of concern.

Me? I'm hoping for the best, but prepared if things get rocky... is what I'm trying to say, I guess. It's going to be super-annoying though if there's some rockiness, and a big section of the fanbase starts brattily calling for Kenny's head or some other stupid sh-t like that, such as putting down various players. Been there, done that. One thing I know for sure is that this team busts its collective ass, and if things don't live up to your dreams in the coming season(s), the problem likely isn't the team, but you.

[/rant that's been slowly fed across this summer]

with no KD this team has a 40-44 win floor. and a nba finals ceiling. we have the second best player in the conference, a super deep loaded team of guys who fit perfectly, and an elite coach

we should dominate, even with injuries

I mean, you're doing it right there, dude.

"NBA finals ceiling" is what roughly eight (and likely more) teams in the league are telling themselves at the start of every season. Big, hairy, honking deal.

> super deep loaded team of guys who fit perfectly

Haha, only thing missing there is Kool-Aid Man bursting through the wall to deliver some Tropical Fruit Punch (c).

Reality check, Prok: this is still a deeply transitional team, with loads of questions about "fit." (did

we you actually read my comment just above?) I mean, how can "fit" NOT be a question mark, when almost half the roster is newcomers, and the two top players have major histories upon "fit?"

Before you or anyone twists that immediately, all I'm really advocating for is a relatively unbiased attitude of "let's see what happens and try to roll with it." Is that so terrible?

we are returning 4 starters and have more continuity then any east playoff team from last season. we have elite chemistry and our team "fits" as well or better then any team in the NBA

if you want to talk about newcomers, look at the rest of the east, that lost multiple starters or even all-stars. if you want to talk about bad fits look at teams who have overloads at g/wing/scorer and no front court

we have balance, we have depth, we have go to scoreres, we have role guys, we have shooters, we have off ball guys and we have finsihers

[Prokorov]

Barring disastrous injuries this roster is better than last year's so I have a hard time thinking that we will be 4 games worse than last season.

exactly... last year WITH disasterous injuries, in a tougher east we won 42 games.

we are now better and deeper. even with injury this is a .500 team

people are criminially underrating kyrie

in a "down year" where he "mailed it in" and was a "poor leader" he:

- posted a 24/7/4 season (no net has EVER done that. not kidd, not VC, not Irving, not super john williamson...
- posted a 49/40/88 season on 60 TS%
- led boston to 49 wins and a first round playoff series victory

A happier kyrie in a place he wants to be with better role guys around him (ones who accept their role) who can spread the floor and we could be looking back to his 25+ ppg 50/40/90 season from cleveland and leading us to 50+ wins

Kyrie in a down year is basically a more efficient peak Dlo from last year (December-January) and we played like a top 3 team in the east during that time WITHOUT levert and with spencer and carroll missing time too

[ecuhus1981]

Prok, your takes have generally leaned more toward offense, and this one is no exception.

While everything you've stated above is true to varying degrees, the other contenders have a bona fide, established elite defensive presence in their core. Who's ours?

Our glittering offense will be fun to watch, and if we can't routinely crash the boards and get stops when we need them, it will all be for naught.

[Prokorov]

Prok, your takes have generally leaned more toward offense, and this one is no exception.

While everything you've stated above is true to varying degrees, the other contenders have a bona fide, established elite defensive presence in their core. Who's ours?

Our glittering offense will be fun to watch, and if we can't routinely crash the boards and get stops when we need them, it will all be for naught.

'you dont need to be good defensively to be .500 in the east. we werent last year thats for sure.

We added Jordan, he isnt the DPOTY he once was but he helps us with some matchups we got destroyed on last year. i also think prince has the tools be be better defensively then kurucs, demarre were and temple is a bulldog defensively

but this team wont win on the back of its defense anyway

[gigantes]

but this team wont win on the back of its defense anyway

Still, that seems like a pretty glaring problem if you're hoping (or expecting) to come out of the East, no?

AFAIK we're not even close to the individual or collective defensive talent of MIL, BOS, TOR and PHI... and maybe others I'm overlooking. That stuff will most certainly matter, down the road.

Now, yeah... Kenny is apparently stressing 'D' more than ever for the upcoming season, and that's cool (if also unsurprising and borderline old news), but it seems like that's more of a "let's get 110% out of what we have" situation than any particular indication of defensive talent. It's moreso a necessary form of compensation upon a deficit of talent, I'm thinking.

As of right now our best defender is who, exactly? Prince, and a healthy KD, I guess? But team-wise, with each round of the playoff slog, it's hard to see how such a mediocre defensive squad can advance, with each round exposing more of our deficits, step by step.

That said, I expect Sean Marks to be way ahead of all these issues, and to have some great ideas about how to catch up to the beasts of the East in terms of individual defense. Fro putting on 20lbs of muscle (is that actually true?) sounds like a great step in the right direction. But AFAIK the future is still fraught with uncertainty in these areas.

[Prokorov]

but this team wont win on the back of its defense anyway

Still, that seems like a pretty glaring problem if you're hoping (or expecting) to come out of the East, no?

thats our ceiling. to win the east we would need to be at least an average defensive team.

AFAIK we're not even close to the individual or collective defensive talent of MIL, BOS, TOR and PHI... and maybe others I'm overlooking. That stuff will most certainly matter, down the road.

We have more talent than boston and while milwaukee has giannis we have more overall talent. philly needs a healthy embiid and even then we now match up better with jordan here and them losing reddick and butler.

That said, I expect Sean Marks to be way ahead of all these issues, and to have some great ideas about how to catch up to the beasts of the East in terms of individual defense. Fro putting on 20lbs of muscle (is that actually true?) sounds like a great step in the right direction. But AFAIK the future is still fraught with uncertainty in these areas.

its not really a big issue. we sucke don D had a tons of injuries and won 42 games last year. we are better across the board and have a star now. our floor is 40-42 wins even if we are last in the NBA in defense we will win 40 games or more

[MGrand15]

Our defensive issues are way overblown. We were 15th in the league last year. Right on par with Philly and Portland. After the all star break, we were in the top tier of the league. There's more resting and injuries in the final 25 games of the year but still.

It's possible we take a step back since we lost Ed Davis, Demarre Carroll, and Treveon Graham but we're expecting internal improvement from LeVert, Dinwiddie, Jarrett, and Rodi. We've added Kyrie (upgrade over DLo), DeAndre (underrated because he played next to the golden boy), Temple (good defender), and Nwaba (pitbull like Graham).

I'm not a huge fan of the zone defense because it's a crutch but Kenny has proven he'll figure the defense out regardless of personnel.

My biggest concern is offense. We need to be top 10 in the league.

[gigantes]

No problem... I'll just throw my hands in the air like I just don't care. As if my posts were written in Swahili, I suppose.

Obviously, everything that could possibly go wrong with the Nets season will go miraculously right. And everything that could go right will go BLAZINGLY right.

Hum-diggedy-do, and pass the caramelized peas, please. (thank you)

[MrDollarBills]

So the Nets upgraded the roster across the board including adding an all NBA PG and we are supposed to look at it as a step back.

Meanwhile a team like Boston loses several major pieces and every one thinks they will keep on running like a smooth engine?

I refuse to buy it. Barring injury, this will be a solid team and better than last year.

[BKSZN]

So the Nets upgraded the roster across the board including adding an all NBA PG and we are supposed to look at it as a step back.

Meanwhile a team like Boston loses several major pieces and every one thinks they will keep on running like a smooth engine?

I refuse to buy it. Barring injury, this will be a solid team and better than last year.

I don’t see Boston approving much at all. They downgraded in several departments actually and the reality will set in for arrogant Boston fans by the middle of the season.

[Prokorov]

No problem... I'll just throw my hands in the air like I just don't care. As if my posts were written in Swahili, I suppose.

Obviously, everything that could possibly go wrong with the Nets season will go miraculously right. And everything that could go right will go BLAZINGLY right.

Hum-diggedy-do, and pass the caramelized peas, please. (thank you)

i think the point is that we are so talented, so deep, and have such good chemistry that even when things go wrong (which things will, injuries, rodis situation, etc...) that we will easily overcome it

we lost out best or 2nd best player for like 40-50 games last year (levert) and carroll and dinwddie missed a ton of time and RHJ regressed/found himself out of the rotation and we still won 42 games.