How far is Harden from Griffin?

[qclakers]

I live in the PHX area and watched a decent amount of Harden @ASU. While I think it is possible for him to suprise and maximize his talent and overcome his lack of athletism(ala Paul Pierce) I think it is far more likely that he can't hang at all with the much better athletes at the pro level. There is another player who dominated the Pac 10 much like Harden did and has been very mediocre in the pros because he is not good enough athletically. Jason Kapono. Maybe a better example because of his high draft status would be Adam Morrison. Once a decade somebody maximizes their ability like Pierce but more often they fade to the background like Morrison. Now Blake I see his floor as a Paul Millsap type, his most likely outcome as a Boozer,West,Jefferson type(couple of all star appearances) and his ceiling as a Malone, Barkley type. So their ceilings might be close but the most likely outcome is Griffin being a much better pro than Harden. (I also think DeRozan will end up the better player over Harden)

[Joana]

I like Harden, but quite a bit.

[Prestige]

It’s been 10 years. Goes to show most people have no idea what they’re talking about.

[Marcus]

It’s been 10 years. Goes to show most people have no idea what they’re talking about.

you saw that Harden leap coming?

[NO-KG-AI]

Stat projections always seem either drastically conservative or way too optimistic... we're all guilty of it around here. I don't think anyone predicted Harden to get to the point where he was putting up 30/10 on strong shooting numbers, or 36 a game.

[azcatz11]

It’s been 10 years. Goes to show most people have no idea what they’re talking about.

But you do right? Lame post

[UcanUwill]

this thread didnt age well. But I understand, I always been very conservative and even pessimistic when talking about guys that I like even. Like, as Euroleague fan, I was huge fan of Doncic, and even I saw him outplay most NBA guys in Eurobasket, I still had stupid ceiling set at Euroleague players and thought, well, ok, he can be Paul Pierce type player someday, but I thought his rookie year will be at best 14/5/5.

[Dr Positivity]

The rare decent call by me, but I was predicting Joe Johnson potential for Harden, so even that was miles off.

Even with his FT numbers at the time it was pretty much impossible to predict in 2009 that Harden who appeared to be an average athlete and conditioned wing with size, would be one of the most dominant slashing wings of all time.

The 2009 draft is an interesting one with Tyreke being the guy people thought would be a superstar after his first year, and ending up completely irrelevant. Then as late as 2014 Griffin was still #1 in a redraft, coming off a 3rd MVP season and being the type of more athletic, less polished player compared to Curry and Harden who you'd think has more room to grow than them. Then from that point on things managed to flip enough that Curry and Harden could be top 20 players of all time while Griffin doesn't make HOF.

[King Ken]

Threads like this make me realize that a lot of us underestimate how much development happens on a yearly basis. Also, the situation, Harden went to a great situation. Was the 6th man for a super talented squad. Year 3 was in the NBA Finals. He went to a system with Mike D'Antoni who gets more out of playmakers than any other coach in NBA history. Not to mention, Harden is one of the most innovative players in the league.

Development was always primed for improvement with each step.