ATL: The 2019-20 Season Has Begun

[kid idioteque]

I posted a Steve Brule gif in the Siakim thread on the Raptors board and they went off calling the Bucks trash.

They seem a little... insecure.

[kid idioteque]

Also, this classic had been completely scrubbed from the internet so this summer I bought a copy of the album on ebay (don't worry, it didn't set me back much) and, well, here it is:

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[djsunyc]

It's the market price, not just gigastars like Giannis and Lebron get max contracts. Toronto didn't have a choice if they wanted to retain him.

i think fans get way too caught up in the cap aspect of it. i get it if the team is not good and they are retaining their guys at a premium price. but the raptors are coming off a title where he played a huge part. drafted...in house development. mid 20's and improving every year. secondly, it's ok to build a good to really good team. it doesn't have to be tank/sh tty or great. the raptors for 5 straight years had a good to very good team. it allowed them to take a shot for greatness and it worked out. but if they blew it up before last season, then when would've toronto ever win a title? of course something like a kawhi deal doesn't happen all that often but neither does getting a super star in the draft.

[chonestown]

Siakim's worth his contract and he's still getting better. He's good enough to be a #1 and if a megasuperduperstar can be lured to Toronto, I don't see him causing static. Good job, Toronto and now I'm going to projectile vomit after praising the...Craptors. GOT'EM.

[DingleJerry]

Not really, they don’t have a center that’s a shooter. Best fit would be portland next to Zach Collins

Eh, you don’t need all 5 guys on the floor to shoot 3’s. His passing and smart defense would be perfect for them. They have enough guys who will soak up possessions.

I’d bump them up from a tier 3 team to a tier 2 team if they added him. It would be significant.

Well Sabonis isn’t a shooter so they’d be down to 3 guys on the floor that can shoot maybe only two when smart is in. I don’t see the fit

There will be plenty of lineups wherever he goes where you can just play Sabonis as the 5. That's the issue with him and Turner together, really both should be 5s.

Also, I don't see any problem with that Siakam contract.

[Ruzious]

He's now overpaid just like Middleton but every other GM in the league gives him that contract because that's what you have to do to keep your good young players.

He's simply a better all-around player than Middleton.

[crkone]

He's now overpaid just like Middleton but every other GM in the league gives him that contract because that's what you have to do to keep your good young players.

He's simply a better all-around player than Middleton.

Agree on both points. I wonder if he can step up his game and be a playmaker now.

[Ruzious]

He's now overpaid just like Middleton but every other GM in the league gives him that contract because that's what you have to do to keep your good young players.

He's simply a better all-around player than Middleton.

Agree on both points. I wonder if he can step up his game and be a playmaker now.

Keep in mind - Leonard was never a play-maker for his teammates.

[crkone]

He's simply a better all-around player than Middleton.

Agree on both points. I wonder if he can step up his game and be a playmaker now.

Keep in mind - Leonard was never a play-maker for his teammates.

I include making plays for yourself in this. Leonard had over 100 more ISO possessions than Siakam in 20 less games and had more PPP to boot. Siakam also had a pretty high TO frequency in his ISOs, higher than Giannis even.

[LuessiT]

Agree on both points. I wonder if he can step up his game and be a playmaker now.

Keep in mind - Leonard was never a play-maker for his teammates.

I include making plays for yourself in this. Leonard had over 100 more ISO possessions than Siakam in 20 less games and had more PPP to boot. Siakam also had a pretty high TO frequency in his ISOs, higher than Giannis even.

So you're saying Siakam is a worse player than Kawhi? What a surprise.

[crkone]

Keep in mind - Leonard was never a play-maker for his teammates.

I include making plays for yourself in this. Leonard had over 100 more ISO possessions than Siakam in 20 less games and had more PPP to boot. Siakam also had a pretty high TO frequency in his ISOs, higher than Giannis even.

So you're saying Siakam is a worse player than Kawhi? What a surprise.

What the **** are you talking about? Someone said Leonard wasn't a playmaker after all I said was I wonder if Siakam's going to try to step up that part of his game. I responded showing that I do in fact think Kawhi's a playmaker since he makes plays for himself.

[Ron Swanson]

Incredibly debatable that he's "worth" a 30+ million per year contract. But just like a lot of these deals, it's not about worth in a vacuum, but rather what's necessary to retain your best guys. He'll be a really good, fringe All-Star type player for the next 6-7 years, but I'm not buying all this hype that people are trying to push that he has some further superstar type potential. He's just not that kind of talent IMO.

[ReasonablySober]

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[Ruzious]

Agree on both points. I wonder if he can step up his game and be a playmaker now.

Keep in mind - Leonard was never a play-maker for his teammates.

I include making plays for yourself in this. Leonard had over 100 more ISO possessions than Siakam in 20 less games and had more PPP to boot. Siakam also had a pretty high TO frequency in his ISOs, higher than Giannis even.

Right - though it's not at all surprising Leonard had a lot more ISO possessions since he was their clear #1 scoring option, and Siakam was usually their 3rd option. To's are definitely an issue - we'll have to wait and see how Siakam does with more opportunities. I don't expect he'll be as good as Leonard or Giannis - but I regard them as the 2 best forwards in basketball, so that's an awfully high standard. It'll be interesting to see how Toronto does this season.

[crkone]

Keep in mind - Leonard was never a play-maker for his teammates.

I include making plays for yourself in this. Leonard had over 100 more ISO possessions than Siakam in 20 less games and had more PPP to boot. Siakam also had a pretty high TO frequency in his ISOs, higher than Giannis even.

Right - though it's not at all surprising Leonard had a lot more ISO possessions since he was their clear #1 scoring option, and Siakam was usually their 3rd option. To's are definitely an issue - we'll have to wait and see how Siakam does with more opportunities. I don't expect he'll be as good as Leonard or Giannis - but I regard them as the 2 best forwards in basketball, so that's an awfully high standard. It'll be interesting to see how Toronto does this season.

https://theathletic.com/1305529/2019/10/21/using-analytics-to-address-questions-and-set-expectations-for-the-2019-20-raptors/


Seth Partnow just had a good Q&A with Blake Murphy from The Athletic talking about the Raptors:

Spoiler:

Murphy: Kawhi Leonard was used in 30.3 percent of offensive possessions when he was on the court last year. Danny Green was used in a more modest 14.1 percent, but played more. Between the two of them, they used nearly half of the starting lineup’s offensive possessions and 23.5 percent of the team’s possessions for the season as a whole. Their departures are going to require a large rebuilding of the offense and reassigning of roles. What are some areas the Raptors might be able to cobble together easier (or previously uncharacteristic) offense based on their roster makeup? Lowry, Siakam and Marc Gasol all figure to take on slightly larger roles, but those names alone can’t absorb all of Leonard’s usage, especially late in games.

Partnow: Aside from the names you mentioned, there aren’t really any obvious candidates for big usage bumps. Leonard was Toronto’s best shot creator in 2018-19, and replacing him is complicated by the fact that other than a few Jeremy Lin cameos, the roster didn’t feature a huge amount of additional creativity:



The chart above compares the proportion of each players’ attempts that were “self-created” after the player had possessed the ball for more than two seconds as well as their efficiency on those shots, compared to league averages. As I discussed when I explored Oklahoma City’s new emphasis on ball movement, this touch time cut off is a reasonably good proxy for dividing shots that come from one-on-one play as opposed to off-ball movement.

By this analysis, Norm Powell or Fred VanVleet might be able to make up some of the gap in shot creation while maintaining a degree of efficiency, but only to an extent. Other than that, the Raptors will have to find some ways to allow dependent scorers like Anunoby or Serge Ibaka to get more shots set up for them.

Murphy: The Raptors look like they should have a pretty good defence once again. Leonard and Green are both great individually, but Leonard rarely took the toughest regular-season assignments and the rotation is light on defenders who aren’t at least passable. Do you think the Raptors can repeat as a high-end defence, particularly in their ability to limit opponent effectiveness in the two high-efficiency areas of the floor (threes and the restricted area)? If the Raptors are, say, a top-five defence, how high would their offence need to climb for you to peg them as the third-best team in the East behind Milwaukee and Philadelphia?

Partnow: Considering preseason expectations and relative conference strength, I’d estimate the third place team in the East will have around the eighth to 10th best Net Rating in the league. Based on historical trends, if the Raptors end up with the fifth-ranked defence, they’ll need to have around the 12th best offence to hit that mark. Given their dearth of shot creation, I would put that pretty much as their ceiling in terms of reasonable outcomes.

Also, we shouldn’t just assume elite-level defence. While the players remaining are perfectly capable, you don’t lose two All-Defense level performers without missing a beat. Additionally, the Raps weren’t elite at either paint or 3-point defence. They were just pretty decent at both:



In total, Toronto was 12th in terms of allowing the fewest shots from high-value areas. Which is to say that opponent shot distribution doesn’t have to change too much for the Raptors to be swimming upstream.

[paulpressey25]

I think rookie extensions need to be done by 5:00pm CT.

Kings and Buddy have reached a fair deal IMO.

[LuessiT]

Seems like Ntilikina is still viewed positively around the league:

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[Chuck Diesel]

Seems like Ntilikina is still viewed positively around the league:

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Maybe, but picking up the option isn’t really an indication of that. Hope he’s sprung from the Knicks soon we we get a better idea of what he is.

[crkone]

Now's PP25's chance!!!!

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[paulpressey25]

^^^^^^How do we think JJ looks versus Wes?