Mo Swag

[trast66]

I thought he was going to start crying on the court. We should have kept Jones.

[I_Like_Dirt]

He stinks.

[payitforward]

In our first 3 games, Mo has averaged 9.5 turnovers per 40 minutes. He "makes up for it" by averaging 9 fouls per 40 minutes. OTOH, so far this season, Mo has a total of 0 steals. He is, however, averaging .75 assists per 40 minutes.

(In fairness, he is scoring 25.5 points, grabbing 10+ boards, & blocking 3.2 shots in those same 40 minutes -- & posting a .771 TS%. But... these don't begin to make up for the other stuff. He's awful.)

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

In our first 3 games, Mo has averaged 9.5 turnovers per 40 minutes. He "makes up for it" by averaging 9 fouls per 40 minutes. OTOH, so far this season, Mo has a total of 0 steals. He is, however, averaging .75 assists per 40 minutes.

(In fairness, he is scoring 25.5 points, grabbing 10+ boards, & blocking 3.2 shots in those same 40 minutes -- & posting a .771 TS%. But... these don't begin to make up for the other stuff. He's awful.)

Yes, but Drew calls him Mo Swaggy and Brooks plays him heavy minutes. He must be good.

[dckingsfan]

I am hoping he gains some BBall IQ if the game were to slow down just a bit for him...

[Mojo Amok]

In our first 3 games, Mo has averaged 9.5 turnovers per 40 minutes. He "makes up for it" by averaging 9 fouls per 40 minutes. OTOH, so far this season, Mo has a total of 0 steals. He is, however, averaging .75 assists per 40 minutes.

(In fairness, he is scoring 25.5 points, grabbing 10+ boards, & blocking 3.2 shots in those same 40 minutes -- & posting a .771 TS%. But... these don't begin to make up for the other stuff. He's awful.)

It's way too early to call a trend on that given how many of those are whistles on moving screens and then traveling violations. Both of those are quite correctable and the screens of course count as both a foul and a turnover all at once. The traveling violations are also related to an officiating change that everyone is adapting to.

According to Basketball-Reference, on the season he has:
11 total fouls
12 turnovers
4 offensive fouls
1 bad pass turnover
2 lost ball turnovers

Eyeballing the play by play from ESPN, I'm seeing:
2 travels against the Mavs
2 travels against the Thunder
0 travels against the Spurs

(I may have missed one)

So, yeah, if he continues to average 4.23 moving screen violations and 4.23 travels per 36 minutes, he'll be irredeemably awful for sure. However, the odds are very high that he can improve on both of these metrics.

[nuposse04]

In our first 3 games, Mo has averaged 9.5 turnovers per 40 minutes. He "makes up for it" by averaging 9 fouls per 40 minutes. OTOH, so far this season, Mo has a total of 0 steals. He is, however, averaging .75 assists per 40 minutes.

(In fairness, he is scoring 25.5 points, grabbing 10+ boards, & blocking 3.2 shots in those same 40 minutes -- & posting a .771 TS%. But... these don't begin to make up for the other stuff. He's awful.)

It's way too early to call a trend on that given how many of those are whistles on moving screens and then traveling violations. Both of those are quite correctable and the screens of course count as both a foul and a turnover all at once. The traveling violations are also related to an officiating change that everyone is adapting to.

According to Basketball-Reference, on the season he has:
11 total fouls
12 turnovers
4 offensive fouls
1 bad pass turnover
2 lost ball turnovers

Eyeballing the play by play from ESPN, I'm seeing:
2 travels against the Mavs
2 travels against the Thunder
0 travels against the Spurs

(I may have missed one)

So, yeah, if he continues to average 4.23 moving screen violations and 4.23 travels per 36 minutes, he'll be irredeemably awful for sure. However, the odds are very high that he can improve on both of these metrics.

Good stuff, but he needs to reduce those stuff considerably because his 3 pt shooting is unsustainably high right now. 56%! He's giving great floor spacing and I'll think he'll be notably better than last season in that regard, but he cant keep this up.

I think also by having IT run the 2nd unity maybe he'll stop trying to do as much on offense, could help lower some of his turnovers. His foul rate is absurd. Almost makes me miss Ian....almost.

He hasn't been as awful defensively as I thought he would be...and for a stretch 5 he gets an ok amount of boards. Still needs to get stronger.

[Mojo Amok]

Good stuff, but he needs to reduce those stuff considerably because his 3 pt shooting is unsustainably high right now. 56%! He's giving great floor spacing and I'll think he'll be notably better than last season in that regard, but he can't keep this up.

I think also by having IT run the 2nd unity maybe he'll stop trying to do as much on offense, could help lower some of his turnovers. His foul rate is absurd. It almost makes me miss Ian....almost.

He hasn't been as awful defensively as I thought he would be...and for a stretch 5 he gets an ok amount of boards. Still needs to get stronger.

Yeah, he won't be able to keep the shooting up, though he may get more roll opportunities once they generate some chemistry (and hopefully IT opens things up too, as noted).

I suspect that the traveling is something that he can adjust to without too much trouble, but it would be a deal-killer if he couldn't (he did avoid these in the Spurs game). With the moving screens, at least one of the four against him looked rather questionable and his screening instincts seem at least decent (he's just behind Bryant in screen assists per 36). The other turnovers - bad passes and bobbles - are probably here to stay, though the rate isn't catastrophic on those.

Aside from those other turnovers, I also doubt that he's going to be able to get the foul rate down too much - I don't know, he just feels like a guy who's going to get a lot of whistles on him and his "who, me?" face is something that we'll have to get used to. He's a bit overmatched moving in space against NBA athletes and will likely resort to some hacking to compensate (which is strange, because he's got good quickness with the ball).

He is doing pretty well in the hustle stats department, though:

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Per36&TeamID=1610612764&sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS&dir=1

He's towards the top of the team on almost all categories aside from loose balls.

I'm not saying that he's necessarily going to live happily ever after in DC, but he really shouldn't be written off at this point.

[nate33]

In our first 3 games, Mo has averaged 9.5 turnovers per 40 minutes. He "makes up for it" by averaging 9 fouls per 40 minutes. OTOH, so far this season, Mo has a total of 0 steals. He is, however, averaging .75 assists per 40 minutes.

(In fairness, he is scoring 25.5 points, grabbing 10+ boards, & blocking 3.2 shots in those same 40 minutes -- & posting a .771 TS%. But... these don't begin to make up for the other stuff. He's awful.)

Wagner had played a total of 441 NBA minutes prior to this season. Obviously, we need to evaluate him based on what we think he could become, not what he is now. What we see now is a guy with a lot of intriguing skills, but a guy who makes a lot of mistakes.

But let's focus on the intriguing skills part for a minute. Wagner has absolutely floored me with his offensive skillset. The guy can shoot, slash and handle. He's got a nice floater and surprising dexterity for a guy that big. And he's relentless. The moment he gets the ball, he's either launching it or coming at you. Not many big men can post a USG% north of 25% with that type of shooting efficiency.

And I'm pleasantly surprised with his rebounding as well. I really thought his rebound rate would be anemic, but 9.1 defensive boards per 100 possessions isn't bad. (His offensive rebounding is poor because he spends so much time on the perimeter.)

His defense is better than expected too. Yeah he fouls a lot, but as Mojo points out, a lot of those fouls are offensive fouls and he is sure to clean that up sooner or later. I can live with a moderately foul-prone backup center. With the defensive personnel around him, he's going to be put into bad positions often, and fouling is a better option than yielding a layup. The on/off numbers suggest that it's working. It's small sample size theater, but Wagner has an on/off differential of +22.9 .

If you squint just enough, you can see the makings of a useful NBA player in there. If he just cuts out the shuffling of his feet at the start of his dribble drives, and eliminates the majority of his moving screens, his turnover rate gets cut in half and suddenly he becomes a pretty effective player.

[I_Like_Dirt]

If you squint just enough, you can see the makings of a useful NBA player in there. If he just cuts out the shuffling of his feet at the start of his dribble drives, and eliminates the majority of his moving screens, his turnover rate gets cut in half and suddenly he becomes a pretty effective player.

He needs to take a few pages out of Serge Ibaka's book. When he's unsure of what to do, stay at home and don't get caught in the middle of nowhere trying to scramble to figure out where to be. This goes for both ends of the floor, really. He's got that itch to get in motion, though, which isn't really uncommon for young bigs. The game is just a bit faster than he can read it now so he's trying to get out in front of it which is why so much bad stuff happens when he starts to move too much. If he can overcome that, he'll be a useful NBA rotation player in time. The speed of the game is something that has been the bane of a lot of young bigs, though. Wagner is really close. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go either way.

[tontoz]

I like bigs that have a good motor. At this point I wouldn't be concerned about mistakes. A few months from now I would be more concerned about them.

Some young players correct their mistakes but others keep making the same mistakes for years.

[payitforward]

I'm on board with what you all are saying -- much can be corrected. He can get better. I agree that he has some interesting offensive skills, too. Above all, neither he nor anyone can be judged on 50 minutes of play.

Still... I am pretty sure I've never seen that number of fouls/turnovers in 50 minutes! & now, reading nate's post, I am altogether mind-blown that the team is up 23 points in those same minutes! Whoa... now that is truly truly weird!!

[queridiculo]

My takeaway, Wagner isn't quite as terrible as he's looked in summer league play and in preseason, but I very much doubt that his two regular season games are a window into who he is as a player.

What I like about him now are the same things that I liked about him last year at the draft, he's got size you can't teach, can move quite a bit for a seven footer, and he's got a motor.

He's also got a bit of fight in him, he's not going to back down, it'll be interesting to see what kind of player he's going to be two or three years from now.

[payitforward]

C'mon, queridiculo -- you know the answer to that one!!

"Two or three years from now," he'll either be really good, in which case it's a lock he'll be playing for a different team, or else he'll be absolutely terrible, in which case you can bet we'll have signed him long-term.

[tontoz]

C'mon, queridiculo -- you know the answer to that one!!

"Two or three years from now," he'll either be really good, in which case it's a lock he'll be playing for a different team, or else he'll be absolutely terrible, in which case you can bet we'll have signed him long-term.

Sounds like PTSD. Just keep repeating to yourself....Grunfeld is gone..Grunfeld is gone..Grunfeld is gone.

You'll feel better i promise.

[tontoz]

So far his foul/turnover rates are staggering (8 fouls per 36 minutes ).

But if you look at his other numbers per 36....

22/11 with 2.5 blocks, 70% TS

...there is some potential here.

[payitforward]

It's true. Plus over 5 TOs per 36 minutes. For comparison, John Wall has averaged @3.8 TOs per 36 minutes over his career.

But... Mo is shooting well, rebounding well, etc. He didn't play much as a rookie, yet he didn't foul or turn it over the way he is this year.

If everything else stayed at the current level, while TOs/fouls went back to his levels as a rookie (which were already worse than average!), he'd be a very good player.

[nate33]

I'm not so worried about the fouls. The 2nd unit perimeter defense is a total joke and Wagner is the only obstacle to a never-ending layup line. Also, knowing he's a backup who only needs to play 20 minutes, he is less conservative about avoiding fouls.

The turnovers are the big problem. If he gets those under control, he'll have a long career in this league.

Indeed, he is playing so we'll that I'm starting to be open to trading Bryant for a defense first center. Something like Bryant and a lotto pick for Myles Turner would address a lot of issues.

It's just a fleeting thought though. The smart move is to continue and develop both centers for now. If one gets traded, it should be a year or two from now when their trade value is presumably higher.

[payitforward]

nate... I do hope that thought is, as you say, "fleeting."

[Mojo Amok]

It should be noted that drawing a charge doesn't show up in a players stats but is a very valuable play. Wagner had 2 in the first half and almost had a 3rd until they reversed it because his foot was on the line.

Yes, Wagner is an absolute savant with drawing charges. He's leading the entire NBA in total charges drawn despite his limited minutes:

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=CHARGES_DRAWN&dir=1&PerMode=Totals

He's even drawn more charges than the rest of the team combined - he's not even far from doubling them:

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=CHARGES_DRAWN&dir=1&PerMode=Totals&TeamID=1610612764