The Troy Brown Thread

[Illmatic12]

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/wizards-gm-reiterates-commitment-to-keeping-bradley-beal-but-at-what-point-will-the-risk-outweigh-the-reward/

That was buried in the article about Beal.

Doesn't mean a huge amount from within a happy talk spitball session, but it does augur a bit for the front office pushing Brown to get substantive minutes this year. He might have a 'plays through mistakes' hall pass and Brooks' job security is likely that little incremental bit higher if Brown is progressing.

Sheppard is a big fan of TB Jr, said he wanted him to play more last year and will make sure he does so this season.

Troy needs to be prepared for all the minutes he can handle. The way the roster is lined up , they badly need him to cover at least 30mpg at the wings. His development will swing our season more than anyone else on the team.

Personally I’m optimistic - Troy already displayed a complete floor game and didn’t really look out of place in the minutes he played last season.

I think Troy needs to play guard more than SF (but I could definitely be off here).

Cosign on his and Bryant's development swinging the season. I really see no reason that those two don't progress in a big way.

One thing I find this interesting. How does Sheppard make sure he plays more? I don't believe our current coach knows how to position him to succeed - but I have no real evidence to back my belief other than he didn't get much time at guard during the summer league.

Well he’s the GM now, Scott Brooks will do whatever he says. It’s no coincidence that once EG was relieved and Sheppard took over as interim, Brown started those final 5-6 games and played 30mpg.

I don’t feel that position matters for a player like Troy, he’s someone you can just put on the floor and he will adjust. But... considering that the teams best player starts at the 2, ideally the best way for Brown to get major minutes is to start at SF and also take most/all of Beal’s backup SG minutes.

[nate33]

I don’t feel that position matters for a player like Troy, he’s someone you can just put on the floor and he will adjust. But... considering that the teams best player starts at the 2, ideally the best way for Brown to get major minutes is to start at SF and also take most/all of Beal’s backup SG minutes.

Agreed.

Basically, you are who you guard. Brown will most often guard SF's so he's a SF. Skill-wise it doesn't really matter if you label him at PG, SG or SF. He's going to do the stuff he is capable of doing: handling, rebounding, defending, slashing, passing. Hopefully, he'll add shooting to that repertoire.

[Illmatic12]

Copying over my thoughts on Brown’s potential - this season we should be looking for the development of his shooting - not only spot up threes but also his midrange pull-up jumper. Shooting will be critical to his ceiling!

As far as the Troy Brown Jr comp.. I'll grant that Winslow has a higher defensive ceiling than TB Jr.
But when it comes to offense and overall impact in general, I believe Brown has a much higher ceiling than Winslow because he's much closer to fitting those aforementioned archetypes. Again this is just my opinion and yes admittedly some of it is conjecture/projection..

Ballhandler - Brown was an elite true point guard prospect his entire life and only was classified as a wing after having a late growth spurt. It's not just something he's trying to learn now that he's already in the league. Despite having an average first step his feel, ballhandling, and technique in the PnR as a 19-20yo is far beyond Winslow's. No he isn't as strong or athletic slashing to the rim, but he can slither into the paint and convert floaters which can be an effective weapon. Also more importantly.. I *think* he has the potential to be an efficient pull-up jumpshooter. Ben Rubin of The Stepien proposed the draft philosophy that midrange off-dribble shooting is critical to projecting any prospect as an offensive initiator (think of the players who you'd trust to close out a game in the 4q), bc PnR ballhandler must be able to take those shots to keep the D honest. It comes naturally to small guards like Beal, Lillard Irving etc, but a lot of bigger 6'6+ players .. ala Winslow, Ben Simmons, Giannis etc struggle with the mechanical footwork , balance or touch to shoot those quick trigger pull-up Js. Some like Otto Porter Jr have the touch but simply can't create separation with their handle. Then you have a player like Rui Hachimura , who's an excellent in-between shooter but lacks that next-level feel/IQ to manipulate defenses, at least to this point.

Brown doesn't have the consistency nor sample size yet, but at 6'7 his ability to manipulate ballscreens and fluidly dribble into his jumpshot are VERY positive indicators for potential as a PnR initiator. His balance on some of these shots is Bradley Beal-esque

Read on Twitter

Wing - as a rookie TB Jr was competent at all aspects of playing off the ball (movement, cutting, crashing for OREBS, filling lanes in transition).. except for catch-and-shoot threes. And based on how his shot looked towards the end of last season, he may not be that far away (33% 3pt in his final 10 games as a starter).. IF his spot-up 3pt shot comes along he'll be an excellent off-ball wing.

Big - he's a very good rebounder, has an interesting frame that could maybe be bulked into an occasional small ball 4. But his body is still growing so that's several years away if ever.

So all in all, with what Brown has shown at his age I *could* anticipate him becoming a versatile two-way starter on a contender, able to seamlessly slide between two modern positions (ballhandler + wing). Now , he's very young and it's still very early. But imo he's on that trajectory, and that archetype of player is simply much more valuable than someone like Winslow who is stuck between roles.


Anyways, none of this is really relevant to the Bradley Beal thread! lol. But the discussion sparked interest nonetheless and I wanted to flesh out some concepts I'd been thinking about.

[dckingsfan]

I don’t feel that position matters for a player like Troy, he’s someone you can just put on the floor and he will adjust. But... considering that the teams best player starts at the 2, ideally the best way for Brown to get major minutes is to start at SF and also take most/all of Beal’s backup SG minutes.

Agreed.

Basically, you are who you guard. Brown will most often guard SF's so he's a SF. Skill-wise it doesn't really matter if you label him at PG, SG or SF. He's going to do the stuff he is capable of doing: handling, rebounding, defending, slashing, passing. Hopefully, he'll add shooting to that repertoire.

It will be interesting watching this season watching when he gets switched and guards PGs and SGs. I guess the injury will limit him a bit as the season starts where quickness is key.

[WallToWall]

Read on Twitter

He's back to practicing. Also, an informative interview on the current status and state of the team, from his perspective.

[smoothSeph]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

If Troy can consistently shoot like this his ceiling is ridiculous. We all of a sudden have a surplus of young talent

[W. Unseld]

I would have liked to have see Troy in late over Bonga, I don't think you lose a ton of defense (particularly since Harden is going to score it get fouled anyway) but you gain some offense and ball security

[prime1time]

I would have liked to have see Troy in late over Bonga, I don't think you lose a ton of defense (particularly since Harden is going to score it get fouled anyway) but you gain some offense and ball security

You have to imagine that Troy will be starting over Bonga soon. Bonga has potential but lacks the requisite skill level to make an impact. I want to see more of Troy though before I come to any conclusions about his improvement. First game was really good though.

[payitforward]

It's been mentioned, I think, that Brown is on a minutes limit, & that's why he wasn't in late.

I'm in California & couldn't watch the game, but a quick look at the box score shows that he had a terrific outing!

[Rafael122]

This kid is going to be really good.

[Mojo Amok]

'Fluid, instinctive and gritty' are the words that come to mind with Brown.

[Ruzious]

'Fluid, instinctive and gritty' are the words that come to mind with Brown.

I'd say smart instead of gritty.

[Mojo Amok]

'Fluid, instinctive and gritty' are the words that come to mind with Brown.

I'd say smart instead of gritty.

I was counting instinctive as covering smart, but he is cerebral too. For gritty, I'm just absolutely amazed how he can enter the scrum with a bunch of bigs and somehow come away with those boards and loose balls. In many instances, it looks like he has no chance before he scraps his way into a possession.

[pcbothwel]

This kid is going to be really good.

I've said it before.... Andre Iguodala

Rui will be the volume scorer we need to have Wall "ween" off of being the primary scorer next to Beal... But Troy is going to be a Sato-like stat stuffer with higher upside.

He will be the guy that makes the overall effectiveness out pace the sum of parts.

[payitforward]

Troy brown is kind of giving me the otto vibes lately he needs to cut loose a bit.

Unfortunately for Troy, his jump shot dictates his success right now.

Nah.... & that's even though his TS% is above average for a wing. His 3 pt. % is 38.5%. He's 100% from the free throw line.

Look at some other things Troy is doing:
He's committing about 70% as many fouls as an average wing.
He's getting 10% more defensive rebounds than average.
He's getting almost three & a half times the number of offensive rebounds as an average wing. !!
He's turning the ball over only @ 85% as often as average.
He's getting almost twice as many steals as an average wing.

On his 133 minutes (having missed the first few games)...

Right now, Troy Brown Jr. is playing at the highest level of any player on the team.

[payitforward]

Troy Brown has been taking some criticism here lately. Most of which I haven't agreed with -- haven't understood why it was being launched.

The most important question about Brown, it seems to me, is whether he's improved from last year -- & by how much. The answer to those questions? Yes, &, overall, by a lot.

He's only scoring a little bit more this year than last -- .333 poiints per 40 minutes. But, he's doing it at a significantly better TS%, having gone from 48.7% to 52.1%. That jump has come pretty much entirely from his improved 2 point shooting (45.5% > 54.3%). In fact, his 3 point % has fallen. Still -- he's getting more overall out of fewer possessions.

His defensive rebounding is up this year, & his offensive rebounding is way up. His turnovers have stayed the same, but his steals have more than doubled. Assists are a little down, but so are fouls.

The net of all these changes is that he's a whole lot better this year than last. In fact, he's already a very good SF. & only 20 years old.

[nate33]

Troy Brown has been taking some criticism here lately. Most of which I haven't agreed with -- haven't understood why it was being launched.

The most important question about Brown, it seems to me, is whether he's improved from last year -- & by how much. The answer to those questions? Yes, &, overall, by a lot.

He's only scoring a little bit more this year than last -- .333 poiints per 40 minutes. But, he's doing it at a significantly better TS%, having gone from 48.7% to 52.1%. That jump has come pretty much entirely from his improved 2 point shooting (45.5% > 54.3%). In fact, his 3 point % has fallen. Still -- he's getting more overall out of fewer possessions.

His defensive rebounding is up this year, & his offensive rebounding is way up. His turnovers have stayed the same, but his steals have more than doubled. Assists are a little down, but so are fouls.

The net of all these changes is that he's a whole lot better this year than last. In fact, he's already a very good SF. & only 20 years old.

I'm not sure if the sample size is meaningful, but I found this interesting:



Is it because he's playing against weaker defenders? Or does he thrive when he gets more touches? Or is it that Bertans helps space the floor alongside him much better than Rui?

Whatever the case, it's understandable why Brooks moved him back to the bench and moved Bonga into the starting lineup.

[dckingsfan]

Troy Brown has been taking some criticism here lately. Most of which I haven't agreed with -- haven't understood why it was being launched.

The most important question about Brown, it seems to me, is whether he's improved from last year -- & by how much. The answer to those questions? Yes, &, overall, by a lot.

He's only scoring a little bit more this year than last -- .333 poiints per 40 minutes. But, he's doing it at a significantly better TS%, having gone from 48.7% to 52.1%. That jump has come pretty much entirely from his improved 2 point shooting (45.5% > 54.3%). In fact, his 3 point % has fallen. Still -- he's getting more overall out of fewer possessions.

His defensive rebounding is up this year, & his offensive rebounding is way up. His turnovers have stayed the same, but his steals have more than doubled. Assists are a little down, but so are fouls.

The net of all these changes is that he's a whole lot better this year than last. In fact, he's already a very good SF. & only 20 years old.

I'm not sure if the sample size is meaningful, but I found this interesting:



Is it because he's playing against weaker defenders? Or does he thrive when he gets more touches? Or is it that Bertans helps space the floor alongside him much better than Rui?

Whatever the case, it's understandable why Brooks moved him back to the bench and moved Bonga into the starting lineup.

What are the numbers for Bonga reserve and starter?

[nate33]

What are the numbers for Bonga reserve and starter?

The sample size with him as a reserve is too small to have value, particularly for a guy with a USG% of just 10%. It's just 50 minutes and a total of 12 shot attempts (including hitting 3 of 5 three's). His numbers as a starter look comparable to Troy's though. He fouls a ton and rebounds less, but he doesn't turn the ball over as much and shoots more efficiently:

[DCZards]

Last night, Troy had his best game of the season. He played 35 mins and Bonga only played 13. While Troy didn't start, it's safe to say that he played a lot of minutes, probably most of them, against the Clippers' starters.

Troy shot the ball extremely confidently last night. Let's hope that continues.

Getting more touches also helps.