Game 5: Portland vs OKC 5:00pm SNW

[BlazersBroncos]

I think that MH has been in the league long enough to know that "consistent shooting" is not going to happen. To paraphrase Casey Stengel, we have the only Euro who can't shoot. I like the rest of his game, though.

I was hoping he would show that his shooting % was low because he was forced to create and that here he would make open shots, but it hasn't been the case. It appears that he is closer to the 32% guy than the 38% I thought he could become. I don't think he is as bad as his shooting has been so far this season.

What I have liked is that he is making an impact when his shot isn't going down. He is rebounding really well for a SF / Small-Ball-PF and his DBPM is 0.8, which is 4 time higher than his previous best of 0.2. So he seems to be getting his role, understanding that he needs to be a hustle guy to make it in the league. That's telling. Once he returns to his career shooting numbers (42-44% FG / 30-32% 3PT) he should be a nice role player for us.

[Wizenheimer]

I think that MH has been in the league long enough to know that "consistent shooting" is not going to happen. To paraphrase Casey Stengel, we have the only Euro who can't shoot. I like the rest of his game, though.

I was hoping he would show that his shooting % was low because he was forced to create and that here he would make open shots, but it hasn't been the case. It appears that he is closer to the 32% guy than the 38% I thought he could become. I don't think he is as bad as his shooting has been so far this season.

What I have liked is that he is making an impact when his shot isn't going down. He is rebounding really well for a SF / Small-Ball-PF and his DBPM is 0.8, which is 4 time higher than his previous best of 0.2. So he seems to be getting his role, understanding that he needs to be a hustle guy to make it in the league. That's telling. Once he returns to his career shooting numbers (42-44% FG / 30-32% 3PT) he should be a nice role player for us.

all thru the off-season, the chatter in Blazerland was that Portland improved it's bench a bunch. Even management and the GM kept that refrain going by pumping out hype at a sonic level

and there was plenty of talk about how Simons, Bazemore, and Hezonja were going to provide enough play-making and shooting to make for a better bench, and a better team. 5 games in, those three, in 61 combined minutes are averaging 2.4 assists vs 3.6 turnovers while shooting 41% on FG's and 32% on three's. And Tolliver is chipping in with 23% FG shooting and 25% on three's

now I expect they will shoot better as the season goes along abd the players adjust to each other and the system, but Bazemore, Tolliver, and Hezonja have all had bad shooting seasons before. And frankly, I thought it was always unrealistic to expect a lot of playmaking from this bench. It's way early of course and evaluations should hold off till 20-30 games into the season. But right now, it's looking like the Blazers lost more than people were thinking, and what replaced what was lost might not fit as well as assumed, or at least not as quickly.

still, if the Blazers can get thru the first 21 games with at least a 12-9 record, they'll be doing pretty well

[BlazersBroncos]

and there was plenty of talk about how Simons, Bazemore, and Hezonja were going to provide enough play-making and shooting to make for a better bench, and a better team. 5 games in, those three, in 61 combined minutes are averaging 2.4 assists vs 3.6 turnovers while shooting 41% on FG's and 32% on three's. And Tolliver is chipping in with 23% FG shooting and 25% on three's

now I expect they will shoot better as the season goes along abd the players adjust to each other and the system, but Bazemore, Tolliver, and Hezonja have all had bad shooting seasons before. And frankly, I thought it was always unrealistic to expect a lot of playmaking from this bench. It's way early of course and evaluations should hold off till 20-30 games into the season. But right now, it's looking like the Blazers lost more than people were thinking, and what replaced what was lost might not fit as well as assumed, or at least not as quickly.

I think its total unreasonable to believe the bench continues to play this poorly, especially in regards to shooting.

Baze, Hezonja and Tolliver are all shooting well below their career averages. There is no chance they shoot a combined 31% over an 82 game season. I think there is nowhere to go but up for this bench and I think the upside is quite a bit better than last season.

The playmaking has been poor, but on the flipside Simons as a 20 year old child is putting up 8ppg in 17mpg on really good efficiency. He should only improve as the year goes on and by the end of the season, he should be the best bench scorer we have had since Crawford in 11/12 but on better efficiency.

[Wizenheimer]

I think its total unreasonable to believe the bench continues to play this poorly, especially in regards to shooting.

Bazemore is shooting 33.3% on three's; he shot 32% last year and is at 35% for his career. Hezonja is shooting 25% when his career mark is 32% and shot under 28% last season. Now, they could shoot better than they have, but they are also within range of their norms and shooting a bit better would likely add less than 1 made three a game combined

Tolliver should shoot better than he has no doubt, but he also doesn't do much more than shoot and occasionally play decent position defense

the point being that Hezonja might shoot three's better than Turner, and Bazemore might shoot three's better than Layman. But last season Portland had Curry and Meyers shooting 45% and they attempted 15% of Portland's total three's, and made 18% of Portland's converted three's. Those are significant numbers and the Blazers don't have anybody like that on the bench this season

Simons as a 20 year old child is putting up 8ppg in 17mpg on really good efficiency. He should only improve as the year goes on and by the end of the season, he should be the best bench scorer we have had since Crawford in 11/12 but on better efficiency.

well first, he has to be a better scorer than Hood last season (or Mo Williams, or Afflalo, or Crabbe or Napier)

[Fitz303]

I think its total unreasonable to believe the bench continues to play this poorly, especially in regards to shooting.

Bazemore is shooting 33.3% on three's; he shot 32% last year and is at 35% for his career. Hezonja is shooting 25% when his career mark is 32% and shot under 28% last season. Now, they could shoot better than they have, but they are also within range of their norms and shooting a bit better would likely add less than 1 made three a game combined

Tolliver should shoot better than he has no doubt, but he also doesn't do much more than shoot and occasionally play decent position defense

the point being that Hezonja might shoot three's better than Turner, and Bazemore might shoot three's better than Layman. But last season Portland had Curry and Meyers shooting 45% and they attempted 15% of Portland's total three's, and made 18% of Portland's converted three's. Those are significant numbers and the Blazers don't have anybody like that on the bench this season

Agreed. I don't know that Portland's bench is going to be all that much better than they're currently showing. I do think Bazemore will get a little more efficient, and Tolliver will eventually get his outside shot to drop, but don't expect Mario and Bazemore to become 40% 3pt shooters or anything.

Simons as a 20 year old child is putting up 8ppg in 17mpg on really good efficiency. He should only improve as the year goes on and by the end of the season, he should be the best bench scorer we have had since Crawford in 11/12 but on better efficiency.

well first, he has to be a better scorer than Hood last season (or Mo Williams, or Afflalo, or Crabbe or Napier)

This part, I'm not so sure.

Hood - 9.6 ppg (14.1 per36) on .549 TS%
Williams - 9.7 ppg (14.2 per36) on .507 TS%
Afflalo - 10.6 ppg (12.6 per36) on .533 TS%
Crabbe - 10.7 ppg (13.5 per36) on .602 TS%
Napier - 8.7 ppg (15.1 per36) on .544 TS%
Simons - 8.0 ppg (16.9 per36) on .590 TS%


It's early, but Simons is putting up more points per minute than anyone on that list, and more efficiently than anyone outside of Crabbe (who was assisted at a farrrr greater percentage). I would say that as far as scoring, he's probably already better than just about everyone on that list (save for maybe Mo)

[BlazersBroncos]

the point being that Hezonja might shoot three's better than Turner, and Bazemore might shoot three's better than Layman. But last season Portland had Curry and Meyers shooting 45% and they attempted 15% of Portland's total three's, and made 18% of Portland's converted three's. Those are significant numbers and the Blazers don't have anybody like that on the bench this season

I was referring to shooting overall, but yes I understand that we took a step back on 3PT shooting off the bench. I never doubted that would happen with the loss of Curry and Meyers.

On the other hand, while we lost 2 45% shooters, they were both net negative defenders who literally did nothing on offense other than shoot 3's. The new guys are much more rounded on offense.

well first, he has to be a better scorer than Hood last season (or Mo Williams, or Afflalo, or Crabbe or Napier)

Using PER/36

Hood - 14.1 / .549 TS
Mo - 14.2 / .507 TS
Affalo - 12.6 / .533 TS
Crabbe - 14.2 / .572 TS (Took his best season)
Napier - 15.1 / .544 TS (Took his best season)

Simons - 16.9 / .590 TS

Its hard to argue that, should Simons continue to play like this he will be our best bench scorer since at least Crawford. (And IMO all signs point to him being at least this good offensively, likely he gets better)

[BlazersBroncos]

OMG are you in my head Fitz!?!

GET OUT!

[monopoman]

Makes sense that Simons would be one of our best bench scorers ever, as when he was drafted if he would have went to college he was probably a top 3 pick. A position really reserved for starters not for bench guys that are okay but nowhere near good. We were very lucky he fell to us based on where he went to school after high school.

Not to mention it seems like a good amount of young guys come into the league with question marks around their shooting Simons didn't have that problem. This problem is even more pronounced with guys at the top picks who were so dominant they didn't even need outside shots back in high school or college.

[Wizenheimer]

Using PER/36

Hood - 14.1 / .549 TS
Mo - 14.2 / .507 TS
Affalo - 12.6 / .533 TS
Crabbe - 14.2 / .572 TS (Took his best season)
Napier - 15.1 / .544 TS (Took his best season)

Simons - 16.9 / .590 TS

Its hard to argue that, should Simons continue to play like this he will be our best bench scorer since at least Crawford. (And IMO all signs point to him being at least this good offensively, likely he gets better)

Using PER/36

Hood - 14.1 / .549 TS
Mo - 14.2 / .507 TS
Affalo - 12.6 / .533 TS
Crabbe - 14.2 / .572 TS (Took his best season)
Napier - 15.1 / .544 TS (Took his best season)

Simons - 16.9 / .590 TS

Its hard to argue that, should Simons continue to play like this he will be our best bench scorer since at least Crawford. (And IMO all signs point to him being at least this good offensively, likely he gets better)

all that is true. However, there is a major 'yeah, but' to those numbers (and I know you are aware): you guys are comparing 5 games of Simons to full seasons for the other players. The sample size differential is kind of ridiculous and it's the kind of differential that people cherry-picked for CJ 4 years ago to argue he was as good a PG as Lillard. That didn't turn out to be accurate. 5 games vs full seasons just isn't a credible gauge....sorry

another thing is that Simons is very unlikely to continue shooting 52% on FG's as a guard; He's not prime Steve Nash. And he's very unlikely to continue shooting 63% on 2ptFG's; he's not Shaq. Now, maybe, as his 2pt FG's likely drops, he can raise his his 3 pt%. He seems to have a good stroke from distance. Still, counting on him to continue posting a .590 TS% is just wildly unrealistic; Dame has only hit that mark once, and CJ never has.

another thing: Those 5 other Blazer bench scorers were all established. They had games and their games had been thoroughly scouted. There was a book on them that detailed their strengths and weaknesses. The only people paying attention to the over-the-top off-season hype on Simons were Blazer fans. Other coaching staffs weren't. If Simons continues that torrid pace, he'll get scouted and defenses will adjust and focus on him. And Simons will have to adjust, which won't be easy for a 20 year old player seeing his first time in a rotation

but more than all that is that my original point wasn't about just Simons or just Bazemore. It was about the current bench vs last year's bench, and the current team vs last year's team. Last year's team is the most recent and best gauge to apply. There has been a lot of off-season hype and chatter about this year's team being more talented. I've always questioned that. Aminu-Harkless-Kanter-Curry-Layman-Turner-Meyers vs Whiteside-Bazemore-Hezonja-Tolliver-Gasol-Little doesn't look like a big edge either way...unless you think defense is important. Now, you do have the factors of expanded roles for Hood and Simons. But that's offset by the absence of Nurkic and not knowing how effective he'll be when he does come back

and as I said, that off-season narrative was that not only had upgraded the talent, they had added play-making and shooting off the bench. That the floor-spacing was going to be much better and teams weren't going to be able to focus their defenses on stopping Dame. I don't see any evidence of that yet. I'm not saying it won't show up...just saying I don't see where it's going to come from. And yeah, 30 games into the season will tell us a lot more than 5 games in. But still, I don't believe that teams will stop focusing on Dame till Portland upgrades talent at the top of the rotation; just rearranging talent in the middle and bottom of the rotation won't really change anything.

[BlazersBroncos]

Fair assessment. You tend to be a bit more level headed than I when looking at this team (Maybe because I am also a Broncos fan and tremendously pessimistic about that franchise but neither here-nor-there).

I still believe that we did a great job this offseason maximizing what was a very difficult situation in terms of shoring up this team. We had such little wiggle room and came out with far better players than I could have expected. Now, that lack of wiggle room was based on Neil's 2016 contracts bender, but for what we had to work with he really showed me reason to regain some faith in his abilities.

As you said, 5 games is a small sample size and I still remain on the side of the fence that believes this team has more talent than last season. I think it will take time to adjust, but the upside is undoubtedly higher IMO.