A player whose impact doesn't match his reputation (yet)

[VanWest82]

I'm just waiting to see the Booker discussion here, it should be coming.

no, Booker is double positive in a good way of course.

I feel like Booker has been appropriately maligned. He’s more Demar Derozan than KAT from a public perception perspective

[Bob8]

Based on your explanation, you came to the wrong conclusion. If what you say is what you believe (even if i do not share your opinion), then the stats you used, don't show the players impact, but rather if a player is being utilized correctly. If a player can have a positive +/- or off-on in one role, and a negative in another, and still be the same player, then he is not being utilized to his full potential or is being utilized incorrectly.

I personally do not put any stock into +/- as a stat to judge a players impact simply because there are too many variables in a game that swing a result. Like Kobe said, basketball is a game of momentum, and it is a lottery when a team can go on a run.

However i do believe even with Luka's amazing numbers, he is not being utilized correctly. I do not think he should be the primary ballhandler and PG on any team, but rather a SG which is his natural position. Would he get less assists? Sure, however his gravity would open the flow of the offense more, he would get a few more open looks, and he wouldn't destroy game flow, with desperation step back threes as much. The team would thrive with a PG, who can penetrate a lot and plays great defense and Lua at the SG.

Every coach Lebron had up until now and Lebron himself understood that as well, which is why he was always pared with such a PG.

Can someone please check what the team +/- is when Luka and Brunson are on the court together, or Barea or Wright?

You're describing Slovenian golden team, with Dragic as Pg and Luka as Sg. I have to agree there, the problem is, that Mavs don't have player like that.

Also Real's team, with Capazzo and Doncic.

Campazzo and Luka didn't play that much together, because Campazzo was in that days very bad shooter and not exactly good scorer. So they were only limited time together on the court.

[Wooderson]

According to BasketballReference, Doncic ORTG is 119 and his DRTG is 109.

Só, how is he a negative-negative?

Those numbers are derived from individual box metrics. You can find comprehensive on/off data here: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/doncilu01/on-off/2020

I'd recommend using nba.com on/off stats instead of BBRef.

nba.com uses true play by play data for possessions while BBRef is still only estimates I believe.

[Bob8]

You're describing Slovenian golden team, with Dragic as Pg and Luka as Sg. I have to agree there, the problem is, that Mavs don't have player like that.

Also Real's team, with Capazzo and Doncic.

Campazzo and Luka didn't play that much together, because Campazzo was in that days very bad shooter and not exactly good scorer. So they were only limited time together on the court.

http://overbasket.com/rsteams.php?tab=6&year=2017&cmp=EL&shteam=MAD

[minami]

I don´t have time to read the original post but sticking to the bigger picture in the title I´d say Damian Lillard and Chris Paul. Possibly Anthony Davis also.

[Buzzard]

Yeah, at one point I was doing a single-season peak formula and went through tons of examples of this little equation. Since then it's one I often glance at on bbref. The GOATs are like +20-25, and the serious contributors are usually around +10-12, if I'm not mistaken.

Here are four random selections:

2016 Curry = +22
2020 Gordon Hayward = +16
2020 Doncic = +11
2019 Doncic = -2

Since this thread is about Luka and I find it really strange that he could be a minus anything on the Mavs, I checked the game logs for the simple formula Ortg - Drtg. Mind blowing as KingDavid states.

Luka had a minus in two wins using that simple formula.
Dallas at Denver 10-29, -33 by that formula.
Orlando vs Dallas 11-06, -5 by that formula.
The only other minus is a game in which the Mavs lost and he had a -1 on 10-27 against Portland.

I am guessing that -33 is a huge outlier just by me never being able to see Luka that bad a negative; and maybe could explain a lot about the stats of on/off having him in a negative for 2019. I do not go through stats, so its just a guess on my part; but -33 seems huge.

No, you're confused. The formula KingDavid is talking about and the one the OP is talking about are two different stats. In the one KingDavid is talking about (as stated in my post) Doncic is +11, not negative. That's the one you looked at.

The one the OP is talking about is a different stat. Or, actually, two different stats. In both of those stats, Doncic is currently negative. If you go to basketball-reference.com and go down to "Play-by-Play" and look in the middle, you'll see something marked "+/- Per 100 Possessions." The two stats the OP is referring to are the "On Court" stat and the "On/Off" stat.

But you are getting at a simple criticism that still applies to the stats the OP is referring to, which is that the sample size is very small. For example, last season Doncic's On/Off was -3.9, and this season it's -14.5. Even at first glance, for anyone who's watched Doncic play this season, this is obviously an extreme result that is probably tied to small sample size.

What I am curious about is if the basic formula shows a extreme high negative on 10-29, does the OPS on/off formula show an unusually high negative for that game as well?

[Ascrilas]

If Doncic really had such a non-existent impact beyond his boxcore, how does Dallas have a record of 6-4 (+3.0 Net Rating) with Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Dorian Finney-Smith, Delon Wright, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jalen Brunson as the only players to average more than 20 MPG apart from Luka and Kristaps? None of those players I mentioned averages more than 11.6 PPG, by the way. Is Carlisle that good of a coach? Is this a miracle? Just to highlight what has already been said.

The Mavs have a great player (Luka Doncic), a really **** player (Kristaps Porzingis - as of now), and a bunch of good role players (apart from Hardaway, he sucks). Doncic carries those role players + rusty Porzingis against starting lineups, just losing gracefully in those minutes is already a great feat. Their superior and very cohesive bench unit then pushes them to victory.

I do agree though that he was not a star impact-wise in his rookie season (no rookie is), and his defense is overall still a negative despite some improvements - nonetheless, he is definitely All-NBA material in my books and I think once stats like RPM get released, we will have a clearer picture.

[User_friendly]

I do think the data last year shows that he wasn’t the star some touted him to be as a rookie, but he’s certainly on the trajectory to become one.

First of all, I respect your study; it seems serious and well focused. I don't agree to discard +/- just because "his bench may be outscoring the other benches"
Those trends should be always analyzed and explained.

But, on the other hand, I do give much more credit to people than see "superstar" in a rookie (if he looks like it), than others who say: "you are touting him too soon", "he's not in the same conversation as ......", and things like that, and when it's pretty obvious say "well, now he has superstar numbers, but last year etc."

Because the former were mostly assessing potential, which is the difficult task, and the latters are mostly justifying their skepticism, which I think is the easy approach.

[Pumpkin17]

First of all, you cannot say you are proving anything through numbers if applying your theory you end up with absurd results.
THJ would be Mavs best player according to your "model" and we all know that's not the case. So let's forget about the presumption of some kind of model-given proof.

Now, numbers are interesting and we can investigate these. We can think about rotations, lineups and so on and find some reasonable explainations about the phenomenon. We can even conclude Doncic needs to change some habits and improve, which he certainly needs to do. But this is more an optimization/team building kind of reasoning.

But, again, you are dealing with flawed statistics and you are using these according to your interpretation, cause there is no general consensus about these statistics being an appropriate measure of impact.

I suggest you take a more reasonable approach in order to develop a proper model capable of measuring impact: start from the evidence.
The Earth is a globe: you can find a lot of evidence supporting this and you can also imagin ubercomplex models allowing the assumption that this is the opposite according to some flawed line of reasoning. But this does not change the fact that the Earth is a globe, so if your reasoning gives you a flat earth, you have a fallacy somewhere. Change the reasoning, change the model.
Doncic is a great player which is the backbone of his team: you can also find a lot of evidence supporting this and Carlisle would play him even if some measure is not that good. If your "model" gives you an indication of the opposite, again, change your reasoning, change the model.

Your numbers are genuinely interesting and worth investigating, but your model gives you an absurd result. I think it is more reasonable to think that your reasoning is flawed than that Doncic is not an impact player.

[KingDavid]

Since this thread is about Luka and I find it really strange that he could be a minus anything on the Mavs, I checked the game logs for the simple formula Ortg - Drtg. Mind blowing as KingDavid states.

Luka had a minus in two wins using that simple formula.
Dallas at Denver 10-29, -33 by that formula.
Orlando vs Dallas 11-06, -5 by that formula.
The only other minus is a game in which the Mavs lost and he had a -1 on 10-27 against Portland.

I am guessing that -33 is a huge outlier just by me never being able to see Luka that bad a negative; and maybe could explain a lot about the stats of on/off having him in a negative for 2019. I do not go through stats, so its just a guess on my part; but -33 seems huge.

No, you're confused. The formula KingDavid is talking about and the one the OP is talking about are two different stats. In the one KingDavid is talking about (as stated in my post) Doncic is +11, not negative. That's the one you looked at.

The one the OP is talking about is a different stat. Or, actually, two different stats. In both of those stats, Doncic is currently negative. If you go to basketball-reference.com and go down to "Play-by-Play" and look in the middle, you'll see something marked "+/- Per 100 Possessions." The two stats the OP is referring to are the "On Court" stat and the "On/Off" stat.

But you are getting at a simple criticism that still applies to the stats the OP is referring to, which is that the sample size is very small. For example, last season Doncic's On/Off was -3.9, and this season it's -14.5. Even at first glance, for anyone who's watched Doncic play this season, this is obviously an extreme result that is probably tied to small sample size.

Stat that Tim Hardaway has + 17.6, which should explain everything about representative value of this stat at this moment.

Let see...I prefer to use this stat on a game by game basis. There are nights where certain players are hot/cold/bleh. In the morning, when I do that calculation it's usually in line with my eye test. I don't use it as a season average. Just a nightly thing.

Tim Hardaway Jr.
Win/Loss; Opponent; Ortg - Drtg=x

W vs WAS 66-104= -38
W vs NOP 110-121= -11
L vs POR 97-119= -22
W vs DEN 149-116= +33
L vs LAL 100-111= -11
W vs CLE 118-118= 0
W vs ORL 119-110= +9
L vs NYK 84-112= -28
W vs MEM 146-124= +22
L vs BOS 85-122= -37

Seems like he's only had two outstanding, on fire games. But for the most part, he looks like he's been very, very bad. If you average that out, his games where he was hot would spike that average. Turnovers hurt sooooo bad with this calculation.

[Baski]

The Kyrie Irving thread

[KingDavid]

Now for Luka Doncic.

Same games. Ortg - Drtg= x
117-92= +25
128-110= +18
106-107= -1
83-116= -33
120-107= +13
146-111= +35
104-109= -5
111-101= +10
144-109= +35
145-126= +19

He had a horrific game with the -33 against Denver (thj's best game). Outside of that, he's a superstar it seems. At least according to this combination of stats.

As a heat fan, when I see this calculation, its usually dead on accurate. Especially with role players. And like role players, they are inconsistent on a nightly basis. It's pretty cool to see.

[Bob8]

Now for Luka Doncic.

117-92= +25
128-110= +18
106-107= -1
83-116= -33
120-107= +13
146-111= +35
104-109= -5
111-101= +10
144-109= +35
145-126= +19

He had a horrific game with the -33 against Denver (thj's best game). Outside of that, he's a superstar it seems. At least according to this combination of stats.

As a heat fan, when I see this calculation, its usually dead on accurate. Especially with role players. And like role players, they are inconsistent on a nightly basis. It's pretty cool to see.

I don’t believe in any of those 2 methods too much, but if one shows THJ is a superstar and Luka is a scrub and second method vice versa. It’s obvious which is nearer to the truth.

[KingDavid]

Now for Luka Doncic.

117-92= +25
128-110= +18
106-107= -1
83-116= -33
120-107= +13
146-111= +35
104-109= -5
111-101= +10
144-109= +35
145-126= +19

He had a horrific game with the -33 against Denver (thj's best game). Outside of that, he's a superstar it seems. At least according to this combination of stats.

As a heat fan, when I see this calculation, its usually dead on accurate. Especially with role players. And like role players, they are inconsistent on a nightly basis. It's pretty cool to see.

I don’t believe in any of those 2 methods too much, but if one shows THJ is a superstar and Luka is a scrub and second method vice versa. It’s obvious which is nearer to the truth.

Porzingis.

101-96= +5
109-109= 0
129-113= +16 (35 minutes of action, 11-23, 5ast, 2blk, 6dreb, 3oreb, 0 TO, 4 fouls)
80-109= -29
89-110= -21
97-96= +1
70-107= -37 (34 minutes of action, 4-14, 1ast, 0blk, 7dreb, 1oreb, 2 TO, 1 foul)
110-97= +13
Inactive vs MEM
42-120= -78 (20 minutes of action, 1-11, 1ast, 1blk, 5dreb, 0oreb, 1 TO, 5 fouls)

Needs more time to get into form.

[KqWIN]

If Doncic really had such a non-existent impact beyond his boxcore, how does Dallas have a record of 6-4 (+3.0 Net Rating) with Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Dorian Finney-Smith, Delon Wright, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jalen Brunson as the only players to average more than 20 MPG apart from Luka and Kristaps? None of those players I mentioned averages more than 11.6 PPG, by the way. Is Carlisle that good of a coach? Is this a miracle? Just to highlight what has already been said.

The Mavs have a great player (Luka Doncic), a really **** player (Kristaps Porzingis - as of now), and a bunch of good role players (apart from Hardaway, he sucks). Doncic carries those role players + rusty Porzingis against starting lineups, just losing gracefully in those minutes is already a great feat. Their superior and very cohesive bench unit then pushes them to victory.

I do agree though that he was not a star impact-wise in his rookie season (no rookie is), and his defense is overall still a negative despite some improvements - nonetheless, he is definitely All-NBA material in my books and I think once stats like RPM get released, we will have a clearer picture.

It’s really easy to see which minutes the Mavs have been winning. It’s the minutes when Luka and KP especially are not on the court. You might not think those other players are good, but they are out scoring the other team like crazy and that is what has lead to a 6-4 record.

[Johnny Bball]

On/off numbers...if you have a trash bunch you look better and if you have good bench you look worse. Yet so many seem to think it is a stat that stands alone in a vacuum...just needed to say it again.

[Bob8]

If Doncic really had such a non-existent impact beyond his boxcore, how does Dallas have a record of 6-4 (+3.0 Net Rating) with Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Dorian Finney-Smith, Delon Wright, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jalen Brunson as the only players to average more than 20 MPG apart from Luka and Kristaps? None of those players I mentioned averages more than 11.6 PPG, by the way. Is Carlisle that good of a coach? Is this a miracle? Just to highlight what has already been said.

The Mavs have a great player (Luka Doncic), a really **** player (Kristaps Porzingis - as of now), and a bunch of good role players (apart from Hardaway, he sucks). Doncic carries those role players + rusty Porzingis against starting lineups, just losing gracefully in those minutes is already a great feat. Their superior and very cohesive bench unit then pushes them to victory.

I do agree though that he was not a star impact-wise in his rookie season (no rookie is), and his defense is overall still a negative despite some improvements - nonetheless, he is definitely All-NBA material in my books and I think once stats like RPM get released, we will have a clearer picture.

It’s really easy to see which minutes the Mavs have been winning. It’s the minutes when Luka and KP especially are not on the court. You might not think those other players are good, but they are out scoring the other team like crazy and that is what has lead to a 6-4 record.

I assume that Luka’s 28/10/9 against starters helps winning a little or we should assume that Mavs would have be 9:1 or 10:0 without Luka?

[dhsilv2]

Did anyone ever think Ben Simmons was the best player on the team?

His rookie year when they went on the run and Ben was running the offense with shooters around him, yes many did. I'm not sure that's not still true, the team has however been built as terrible for ben as a team could be made.

[KqWIN]

If Doncic really had such a non-existent impact beyond his boxcore, how does Dallas have a record of 6-4 (+3.0 Net Rating) with Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Dorian Finney-Smith, Delon Wright, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jalen Brunson as the only players to average more than 20 MPG apart from Luka and Kristaps? None of those players I mentioned averages more than 11.6 PPG, by the way. Is Carlisle that good of a coach? Is this a miracle? Just to highlight what has already been said.

The Mavs have a great player (Luka Doncic), a really **** player (Kristaps Porzingis - as of now), and a bunch of good role players (apart from Hardaway, he sucks). Doncic carries those role players + rusty Porzingis against starting lineups, just losing gracefully in those minutes is already a great feat. Their superior and very cohesive bench unit then pushes them to victory.

I do agree though that he was not a star impact-wise in his rookie season (no rookie is), and his defense is overall still a negative despite some improvements - nonetheless, he is definitely All-NBA material in my books and I think once stats like RPM get released, we will have a clearer picture.

It’s really easy to see which minutes the Mavs have been winning. It’s the minutes when Luka and KP especially are not on the court. You might not think those other players are good, but they are out scoring the other team like crazy and that is what has lead to a 6-4 record.

I assume that Luka’s 28/10/9 against starters helps winning a little or we should assume that Mavs would have be 9:1 or 10:0 without Luka?

No, we don't have to strawman. But we can easily recognize which minutes the Mavericks are winning and which minutes they are losing.

[Bob8]

It’s really easy to see which minutes the Mavs have been winning. It’s the minutes when Luka and KP especially are not on the court. You might not think those other players are good, but they are out scoring the other team like crazy and that is what has lead to a 6-4 record.

I assume that Luka’s 28/10/9 against starters helps winning a little or we should assume that Mavs would have be 9:1 or 10:0 without Luka?

No, we don't have to strawman. But we can easily recognize which minutes the Mavericks are winning and which minutes they are losing.

And we know who’s directly connected with almost half of Mavs points.