Keeping our role players AND create two max slots?

[jimmy keys]

With the goal of Summer 2021 being to create (ideally) two max slots,
and now with the pleasant surprise of Terrence Davis, Block Quebecois Boucher, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, in addition our super-role-player Fred Van Vleet...

Is there any way we can retain all of these players AND create two max slots?

Assuming we want to keep Lowry as well, what needs to be done to somehow retain this relatively young and promising rotation AND have the potential of adding two additional All-Stars?

- Trade Powell for cap space (likely having to attach a pick)
- Not extending OG or Terrence and allow them to go RFA in 2021 (to ensure a low cap hold prior to signing max FAs)
- Allowing Gasol, Ibaka, Stanley and McCaw to walk in free agency (or traded for picks and expirings)
- Possibly release Thomas and Dewan from their non-guaranteed $1.8M per season salaries

What can Lowry, Fred, Rondae, and Boucher realistically be signed for (per season) in order to create TWO max slots?

Or if this is not possible, then...

What can Lowry, Fred, Rondae, and Boucher realistically be signed for (per season) in order to create ONE max slots?

No one in this thread has really crunched the numbers, but based on a few assumptions you can see that it's possible to create 2 max slots, just not ideal.

2 Max Slots Scenario - (salary cap @ $125 million)

1. Max Player 1 = $37.5 million
2. Max Player 2 = $37.5 million
3. Pascal Siakam = $31.6 million
4. OG cap hold = $11.6 million
5. TD II cap hold = $2 million
6. 2020 1st round pick = $2.5 million (23rd overall)
7. 2021 1st round pick = $2.5 million (23rd overall)

*This scenario assumes that Norm Powell either opts out of last year of his deal worth $11.6 million or is traded for cap space using the 2022 FRP. If not then OG would need to be moved. Lowry, FVV, Gasol, Ibaka, Boucher, McCaw, Johnson & RHJ aren't re-signed. Thomas & Hernandez are waived.

1 Max Slots Scenario - (salary cap @ $125 million)

1. Max Player 1 = $37.5 million
2. Pascal Siakam = $31.6 million
3. OG cap hold = $11.6 million
4. TD II cap hold = $2 million
6. 2020 1st round pick = $2.5 million (23rd overall)
7. 2021 1st round pick = $2.5 million (23rd overall)

*This scenario also assumes that Norm Powell either opts out of last year of his deal worth $11.6 million or is traded for cap space using the 2022 FRP. This leaves the Raptors with roughly $37.3 million to re-sign FVV, Lowry & Ibaka, $33.7 million if Thomas & Hernandez aren't waived.

So in the 1 max player scenario you have to make a few assumptions, especially considering this is still 2 summer away.

2020 Off Season

Assumption 1 - Gasol is renounced in 2020
Assumption 2 - Ibaka is re-signed to a similar deal as Lowry (1 year above market value)
Assumption 3 - RHJ is re-signed using bird rights for 1 year @ $2 million
Assumption 4 - Boucher accepts the QO for 1 year @ $2 million
Assumption 5 - FVV is re-signed for 4 years @ $70 million (contract can be structured so that his cap hit is $16.1 million in 2021)

2021 Off Season

1. Pascal Siakam = $31.6 million
2. Fred Van Vleet = $16.1 million
3. Kyle Lowry = $6.5 million or $8 million if Thomas & Hernandez are both waived
4. Serge Ibaka = $6.5 million or $8 million if Thomas & Hernandez are both waived
5. OG cap hold = $11.6 million
6. Chris Boucher cap hold = $3 million
7. RHJ cap hold = $2.5 million
8. TD II cap hold = $2 million
9. Matt Thomas = $1.8 million
10 Dewan Hernandez = $1.8 million
11. 2020 1st round pick = $2.5 million (23rd overall)
12. 2021 1st round pick = $2.5 million (23rd overall)

Assumption 1 - Powell opts out or is traded
Assumption 2 - McCaw is renounced
Assumption 3 - Johnson is renounced

That leaves the Raptors with roughly $38 million in cap space to sign a max free agent.

2021-2022 Raptors (potential) Roster

FVV - Lowry
OG - Davis II
Antetokounmpo - 2020 FRP - 2021 FRP
Siakam - RHJ
Ibaka - Boucher

OR

FVV - Lowry
Oladipo - Davis II
OG - 2020 FRP - 2021 FRP
Siakam - RHJ
Ibaka - Boucher

A 10 or 12 man roster with great depth + 1 max slot seems a lot more ideal then hoping to sign 2 max guys. If a 2nd max player wanted to sign too then they would have plenty of assets to make that possible.

[mdenny]

Awesome post. My personal dream is:

FVV - Lowry
OG - Davis II
Antetokounmpo - 2020 FRP - 2021 FRP
Siakam - RHJ
Ibaka - Boucher [/b]


Is that still possible if Fred ascends for the rest of the year and we need 25 annually to keep him?

[ratul]

I love how our fans just are so ready to bail on our title team. What incredible disrespect.

[jimmy keys]

Awesome post. My personal dream is:

FVV - Lowry
OG - Davis II
Antetokounmpo - 2020 FRP - 2021 FRP
Siakam - RHJ
Ibaka - Boucher [/b]


Is that still possible if Fred ascends for the rest of the year and we need 25 annually to keep him?

$25 million/year for FVV? Anything above 80/4 requires either Lowry or Ibaka taking vet-minimum deals or one of them walking.

The above scenario assumes that Lowry & Ibaka return next year @ roughly $31 million, then re-sign in 2021 @ around the mid-level somewhere between $6.5 & 10 million.

1 year @ $31 million + 3 years @ $24 million = $55 million over 4 years or an average of $13.75 million.

Who knows if they agree to something like that, but it's not that far fetched. I think this is why Lowry has already been extended for 1 year at $31 million, but we'll see.

Also I'm assuming Boucher signs the QO and RHJ excepts the Non-Bird exception at $2 million, but both could get offered mid-level deals from another team and walk too.

[Gold Dragon]

One thing to keep in mind is that there are cap holds for empty roster spots (around 1M for every empty spot >3). The only way to have 2 max slots is if we renounce or sign OG to a very small contract (less than 5M per year) in addition to renouncing or trading away everyone else except Pascal, TD2 and Dewan.

1 max slot is very doable and can even include signing Fred, Boucher, RHJ to longer term deals.

This is all assuming the cap stays at the projected 125M which is no guarantee.

[Kinger95]

The salary cap goin down is in our favour because that makes cap space significantly more valuable and gives teams less space to fill out rosters and retain players as nearly all contracts escalate. With us having loads of expiring contracts we can get some guys at the end of free agency that would be worth more but teams have no money left. There’s not much available this year as far as top end players go so got to set ourselves up for next offseason

[Shwaguy]

We don't need two Max Slots.

We need one.

Pascal + Max Slot plus our godlike young depth/supporting cast being in it's prime are title favourites.

[mdenny]

Awesome post. My personal dream is:

FVV - Lowry
OG - Davis II
Antetokounmpo - 2020 FRP - 2021 FRP
Siakam - RHJ
Ibaka - Boucher [/b]


Is that still possible if Fred ascends for the rest of the year and we need 25 annually to keep him?

$25 million/year for FVV? Anything above 80/4 requires either Lowry or Ibaka taking vet-minimum deals or one of them walking.

The above scenario assumes that Lowry & Ibaka return next year @ roughly $31 million, then re-sign in 2021 @ around the mid-level somewhere between $6.5 & 10 million.

1 year @ $31 million + 3 years @ $24 million = $55 million over 4 years or an average of $13.75 million.

Who knows if they agree to something like that, but it's not that far fetched. I think this is why Lowry has already been extended for 1 year at $31 million, but we'll see.

Also I'm assuming Boucher signs the QO and RHJ excepts the Non-Bird exception at $2 million, but both could get offered mid-level deals from another team and walk too.

Ya that's my concern. The coming free agency class being so shallow and Fred performing better and better. My greatest concern is losing him. I already don't think it would unreasonable that a team offers him between 20 and 25 and that will only become more likely if he has an incredible season (which I think will happen). I'd rather sacrifice something else than him but I'm biased. Since the 5th or 6th game I saw him I've been particularly high on him relatively speaking.

[jimmy keys]

Awesome post. My personal dream is:

FVV - Lowry
OG - Davis II
Antetokounmpo - 2020 FRP - 2021 FRP
Siakam - RHJ
Ibaka - Boucher [/b]


Is that still possible if Fred ascends for the rest of the year and we need 25 annually to keep him?

$25 million/year for FVV? Anything above 80/4 requires either Lowry or Ibaka taking vet-minimum deals or one of them walking.

The above scenario assumes that Lowry & Ibaka return next year @ roughly $31 million, then re-sign in 2021 @ around the mid-level somewhere between $6.5 & 10 million.

1 year @ $31 million + 3 years @ $24 million = $55 million over 4 years or an average of $13.75 million.

Who knows if they agree to something like that, but it's not that far fetched. I think this is why Lowry has already been extended for 1 year at $31 million, but we'll see.

Also I'm assuming Boucher signs the QO and RHJ excepts the Non-Bird exception at $2 million, but both could get offered mid-level deals from another team and walk too.

Ya that's my concern. The coming free agency class being so shallow and Fred performing better and better. My greatest concern is losing him. I already don't think it would unreasonable that a team offers him between 20 and 25 and that will only become more likely if he has an incredible season (which I think will happen). I'd rather sacrifice something else than him but I'm biased. Since the 5th or 6th game I saw him I've been particularly high on him relatively speaking.

Yeah I hear you. I'm not sure he gets offers above $20 mil, but if he does then the Raptors have to decide if he's worth it or not. Personally I'd cap it $20 mil, take it or leave it. Maybe a lottery team comes along and offer him $25 mil, then it's up to him.

If it was me I'd take $20 mil to start on a championship caliber team vs. $25 mil to play on a bad team, with a bad owner, management etc..We'll see what happens this summer.

Here's what we know for sure. Pascal will make $31.6 mil, OG has a cap hold of $11.6 mil, a max spot is $37.5 mil & the cap will probably be around $125 mil. Beyond that it's all speculation. The Raptors would have roughly $44.3 mil to fill out the roster.

[mdenny]

$25 million/year for FVV? Anything above 80/4 requires either Lowry or Ibaka taking vet-minimum deals or one of them walking.

The above scenario assumes that Lowry & Ibaka return next year @ roughly $31 million, then re-sign in 2021 @ around the mid-level somewhere between $6.5 & 10 million.

1 year @ $31 million + 3 years @ $24 million = $55 million over 4 years or an average of $13.75 million.

Who knows if they agree to something like that, but it's not that far fetched. I think this is why Lowry has already been extended for 1 year at $31 million, but we'll see.

Also I'm assuming Boucher signs the QO and RHJ excepts the Non-Bird exception at $2 million, but both could get offered mid-level deals from another team and walk too.

Ya that's my concern. The coming free agency class being so shallow and Fred performing better and better. My greatest concern is losing him. I already don't think it would unreasonable that a team offers him between 20 and 25 and that will only become more likely if he has an incredible season (which I think will happen). I'd rather sacrifice something else than him but I'm biased. Since the 5th or 6th game I saw him I've been particularly high on him relatively speaking.

Yeah I hear you. I'm not sure he gets offers above $20 mil, but if he does then the Raptors have to decide if he's worth it or not. Personally I'd cap it $20 mil, take it or leave it. Maybe a lottery team comes along and offer him $25 mil, then it's up to him.

If it was me I'd take $20 mil to start on a championship caliber team vs. $25 mil to play on a bad team, with a bad owner, management etc..We'll see what happens this summer.


Nuff respect for breaking this all down concisively.
Here's what we know for sure. Pascal will make $31.6 mil, OG has a cap hold of $11.6 mil, a max spot is $37.5 mil & the cap will probably be around $125 mil. Beyond that it's all speculation. The Raptors would have roughly $44.3 mil to fill out the roster.

[SFour]

Or just run it back. Let the current talent stay together and grow. Sprinkle in some draft picks and depth pickups.

Lowry / FVV / Davis
FVV / Davis / Thomas
OG / RHJ
Siakam / RHJ / Boucher
Ibaka / Gasol / Boucher / Dewan

- Norm goes to the 905 or the end of the bench
- FVV and RHJ resign for moderate deals (14MM and 6MM respectively?)
- Ibaka resigns for a decent contract (20MM) and starts
- Gasol signs for a reasonably small deal (10MM) just to stick around and come off the bench
- Lowry signs for a reasonably small deal after this monstrosity (15MM?)
- OG will get paid

I'm really not interested in getting 2 max slots. I don't think they're useful for our team. We aren't getting a Kyrie/Durant type package.

Giannis is the only viable 'big dream' and even that I'm somewhat skeptical about. But in a perfect world....I'm worried about being able to keep Fred, OG, Pascal, Giannis. I think Fred is getting WAY more than 14 annually. Can we keep a max slot available for Giannis after re-signing OG and Fred is my biggest question. Man I wish we would have locked Fred in long-term but he probably never wanted to do that.

I'm not worried about losing Fred because Davis can easily be his replacement and it would save a lot of cap space.

[jimmy keys]

Ya that's my concern. The coming free agency class being so shallow and Fred performing better and better. My greatest concern is losing him. I already don't think it would unreasonable that a team offers him between 20 and 25 and that will only become more likely if he has an incredible season (which I think will happen). I'd rather sacrifice something else than him but I'm biased. Since the 5th or 6th game I saw him I've been particularly high on him relatively speaking.

Yeah I hear you. I'm not sure he gets offers above $20 mil, but if he does then the Raptors have to decide if he's worth it or not. Personally I'd cap it $20 mil, take it or leave it. Maybe a lottery team comes along and offer him $25 mil, then it's up to him.

If it was me I'd take $20 mil to start on a championship caliber team vs. $25 mil to play on a bad team, with a bad owner, management etc..We'll see what happens this summer.


Nuff respect for breaking this all down concisively.
Here's what we know for sure. Pascal will make $31.6 mil, OG has a cap hold of $11.6 mil, a max spot is $37.5 mil & the cap will probably be around $125 mil. Beyond that it's all speculation. The Raptors would have roughly $44.3 mil to fill out the roster.

Thanks man. I think they'll convince FVV to stay at a slight discount.

[Klayforspicy]

FVV suddenly looks like a fringe star again

[ConSarnit]

While I don’t know if 2 max slots are needed, Powell should be easy to trade and at not a very high cost.

MId-level estimates for 2021/22 are around $10.1 mil. Powell will make 11.6 in his final year. It shouldn’t take a 1st to get off of a rotation player with 1 year left making just over the MLE. I would think a 2nd or 2 would do it. Hell, it’s not crazy someone might take him for free.

[Gold Dragon]

Another note. Pascal has escalators in his contract depending on what awards he gets this year. This is the breakdown by award.

Code: Select all

Award         %Cap         20/21        21/22        22/23        23/24         Total
None           25%    29,000,000   31,320,000   33,640,000   35,960,000   129,920,000
2nd All NBA    28%    32,480,000   35,078,400   37,676,800   40,275,200   145,510,400   
1st All NBA    29%    33,640,000   36,331,200   39,022,400   41,713,600   150,707,200   
MVP            30%    34,800,000   37,584,000   40,368,000   43,152,000   155,904,000

So there is a pretty decent chance Pascal's 21/22 salary will be 35,078,400 or 36,331,200.

Assume he gets 2nd team All NBA. Assuming Norm is traded, then we are looking at committed salaries and cap holds, without future picks:

35,078,400 Pascal
11,616,645 OG cap hold
2,049,757 TD2 cap hold
1,782,621 Thomas
1,782,621 Dewan
8,020,104 empty roster spot cap hold
60,330,148 TOTAL

64,669,852 Room under 125M cap

Definitely not enough for 2 max slots unless OG is renounced but plenty of room for 1 max slot.

If we sign Fred to 20M per year
35,078,400 Pascal
20,000,000 Fred
11,616,645 OG cap hold
2,049,757 TD2 cap hold
1,782,621 Thomas
1,782,621 Dewan
7,017,591 empty roster spot cap hold
79,327,635 TOTAL

45,672,365 Room under 125M cap

We can still sign a max free agent, have room for a 9M dollar player and the tax payer MLE which will be around 6M. We might also have the BAE which would be around 3-4M. The rest would be minimum level players.

[rrdjutriurt]

All we need is Giannas and the majority our tough tenacious defence to win the title again. No need for two more max players. Unlike most other teams, the beauty of our championship is that we built out team organically. There's something dirty about buying a championship with max free agents like most of the other previous winners did. Not a fan of that kind of thing.

[tecumseh18]

Read on Twitter

Let's keep the one max slot. Probably have to trade Kyle or Fred, but let's keep it.