MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

[C3H6N6O6]

Everyone knows that I am a LeBron fan but Harden should win it easily. Only biased haters have LeBron or Giannis even in the race right now.
Harden is just not scoring a crazy amount of points, he is also carrying Rockets to wins. Rockets are only 1 game back of the Lakers.

If you think Harden isn't the clear cut MVP so far then you don't know basketball.

[SweetTouch]

Harden is load managing harder than kawhi

He load manages defensively every night

[yoyoboy]

Everyone knows that I am a LeBron fan but Harden should win it easily. Only biased haters have LeBron or Giannis even in the race right now.
Harden is just not scoring a crazy amount of points, he is also carrying Rockets to wins. Rockets are only 1 game back of the Lakers.

If you think Harden isn't the clear cut MVP so far then you don't know basketball.

Houston is a 3.71 SRS team (9th). LA is a 9.94 SRS team (2nd) and Milwaukee is an 11.49 SRS team (1st). That gap is massive. It's too early in the season to just say "X games back." Sample size is too small and SRS is a much better indicator and predictor of team performance. For reference, OKC was a 3.56 SRS team last year and they won 49 games. Boston was a 3.90 SRS team and won 49. Milwaukee was an 8.04 SRS team - best in the league - and won 60.

LA and Milwaukee have been performing at the level of 66+ win teams. Houston is performing at a ~50 win team level so far. Saying Harden is the clear cut MVP and any argument otherwise means you don't know basketball is just dumb. This is a 3 man race right now among LeBron, Giannis, and Harden. If fully expect LeBron to drop out as the season progresses because he's too old to expend this much energy for 82 games, but if we're strictly talking about performance and impact thus far, nobody has separated themselves so much that there's no room for discussion. LeBron and Giannis have better BPMs. They're on better performing teams. They have better on-court plus/minus figures. Giannis is better in PIPM. LeBron is better in On/Off RAPTOR. Harden is better than both in Box Score Raptor and raw On-Off.

[mademan]

Harden is load managing harder than kawhi

He load manages defensively every night

Harden defense jokes no longer apply. He's worked himself up to averageish on defense, which is what you want from someone with his offensive responsibility.

[Dupp]

Harden is load managing harder than kawhi

He load manages defensively every night

Harden defense jokes no longer apply. He's worked himself up to averageish on defense, which is what you want from someone with his offensive responsibility.

And considering the load he carries offensively that’s fine.

Kawhi only played above average d last year with an offensive load not even remotely close to hardens.

[Benedict_Boozer]

I think Giannis should get MVP because he’s on pace to have the greatest single season advance stat resume ever, is his team’s best offensive and defensive player, etc.

But to address the bolded:

—Lakers +14.5 NET with LeBron on court
—Lakers -5.6 NET with LeBron off court (Lakers are at least +5 with every other player off court including +12.3 with AD off court )
—Lakers +20.1 points per 100 possessions better with LeBron on court than off.
—Lakers ORtg with LeBron: 114.7, equivalent to the best offense in the NBA
—Lakers ORtg without LeBron: 88.8. Lakers are 25.9 points per 100 possessions BETTER Offensively with LeBron on court.

—Bucks are +11.8 NET with Giannis on court
—Bucks +2.2 NET with Giannis off court (Bucks are a + with every player off court
— Bucks are +9.7 points per 100 possessions better with Giannis on court than off.
—Bucks ORtg with Giannis : 110.8
—Bucks ORtg without Giannis: 99.1. Bucks are 11.7 points per 100 possessions BETTER Offensively with Giannis on court.

This is a great post, nice work.

One thing I've always wondered is why is it that with Lebron teams, they are always elite with him on the court, but crater with him off the court. Doesn't matter the team composition, you seem to see this play out time and time again which is crazy. Why is that?

I do think that eventually Lebron will need to throttle it back and Giannis will pull away, he is trying to prove a point but the long game is what he needs to be playing for.

[LoneyROY]

Harden is load managing harder than kawhi

He load manages defensively every night

Last 7 games Rockets are allowing 95.9 points/100 possessions WITH Harden on the floor.

Whoops, there goes that narrative.

[trickshot]

I think Giannis should get MVP because he’s on pace to have the greatest single season advance stat resume ever, is his team’s best offensive and defensive player, etc.

But to address the bolded:

—Lakers +14.5 NET with LeBron on court
—Lakers -5.6 NET with LeBron off court (Lakers are at least +5 with every other player off court including +12.3 with AD off court )
—Lakers +20.1 points per 100 possessions better with LeBron on court than off.
—Lakers ORtg with LeBron: 114.7, equivalent to the best offense in the NBA
—Lakers ORtg without LeBron: 88.8. Lakers are 25.9 points per 100 possessions BETTER Offensively with LeBron on court.

—Bucks are +11.8 NET with Giannis on court
—Bucks +2.2 NET with Giannis off court (Bucks are a + with every player off court
— Bucks are +9.7 points per 100 possessions better with Giannis on court than off.
—Bucks ORtg with Giannis : 110.8
—Bucks ORtg without Giannis: 99.1. Bucks are 11.7 points per 100 possessions BETTER Offensively with Giannis on court.

This is a great post, nice work.

One thing I've always wondered is why is it that with Lebron teams, they are always elite with him on the court, but crater with him off the court. Doesn't matter the team composition, you seem to see this play out time and time again which is crazy. Why is that?

I do think that eventually Lebron will need to throttle it back and Giannis will pull away, he is trying to prove a point but the long game is what he needs to be playing for.

he has never really paired himself with someone who could properly run an offense in his absence. Should have been Wade but injuries.

Also teams over-rely on him and it's hard not to because he ticks so many boxes as far as roster needs are concerned

[Barnzy]

Everyone knows that I am a LeBron fan but Harden should win it easily. Only biased haters have LeBron or Giannis even in the race right now.
Harden is just not scoring a crazy amount of points, he is also carrying Rockets to wins. Rockets are only 1 game back of the Lakers.

If you think Harden isn't the clear cut MVP so far then you don't know basketball.

Sorry but if you don't think LeBron is MVP right now then you don't know basketball.

[Colbinii]

Everyone knows that I am a LeBron fan but Harden should win it easily. Only biased haters have LeBron or Giannis even in the race right now.
Harden is just not scoring a crazy amount of points, he is also carrying Rockets to wins. Rockets are only 1 game back of the Lakers.

If you think Harden isn't the clear cut MVP so far then you don't know basketball.

Sorry but if you don't think LeBron is MVP right now then you don't know basketball.

There are other candidates.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[RoundMoundOfReb]

Everyone knows that I am a LeBron fan but Harden should win it easily. Only biased haters have LeBron or Giannis even in the race right now.
Harden is just not scoring a crazy amount of points, he is also carrying Rockets to wins. Rockets are only 1 game back of the Lakers.

If you think Harden isn't the clear cut MVP so far then you don't know basketball.

Houston is a 3.71 SRS team (9th). LA is a 9.94 SRS team (2nd) and Milwaukee is an 11.49 SRS team (1st). That gap is massive. It's too early in the season to just say "X games back." Sample size is too small and SRS is a much better indicator and predictor of team performance. For reference, OKC was a 3.56 SRS team last year and they won 49 games. Boston was a 3.90 SRS team and won 49. Milwaukee was an 8.04 SRS team - best in the league - and won 60.

LA and Milwaukee have been performing at the level of 66+ win teams. Houston is performing at a ~50 win team level so far. Saying Harden is the clear cut MVP and any argument otherwise means you don't know basketball is just dumb. This is a 3 man race right now among LeBron, Giannis, and Harden. If fully expect LeBron to drop out as the season progresses because he's too old to expend this much energy for 82 games, but if we're strictly talking about performance and impact thus far, nobody has separated themselves so much that there's no room for discussion. LeBron and Giannis have better BPMs. They're on better performing teams. They have better on-court plus/minus figures. Giannis is better in PIPM. LeBron is better in On/Off RAPTOR. Harden is better than both in Box Score Raptor and raw On-Off.

A lot of this is just them getting obliterated by Miami.

[RoundMoundOfReb]

I like LeBron and Giannis and strongly dislike Harden, but he is the MVP thus far.

[Swish1906]

thick white boy is entering at least the top-5 discussion

[Yuri36]

thick white boy is entering at least the top-5 discussion

In term of efficiency at least, he is second in the league only behind Giannis.
That's a very telling stat.

[MrBigShot]

This kid luka is out of this world. To be honest, he is in the conversation for most single most skilled player in the league. Virtually every great player is a good to great athlete.

This MVP race is shaping up to be an interesting one.

[NY 567]

I have it Giannis, then Harden, then Lebron, but Luka Doncic is quickly climbing up that ladder and if he keeps doing this and the Mavs win 50 games, he'll be a real threat to win it

[Triples333]

Everyone knows that I am a LeBron fan but Harden should win it easily. Only biased haters have LeBron or Giannis even in the race right now.
Harden is just not scoring a crazy amount of points, he is also carrying Rockets to wins. Rockets are only 1 game back of the Lakers.

If you think Harden isn't the clear cut MVP so far then you don't know basketball.

LOL you're adorable.

An actual 2 way player who just lost a borderline All Star is averaging 30/14/7 on better efficiency than Harden for the team with the top SRS in the NBA.

He leads the league in PER, WS, BPM and VORP (also lesser know non puplic stats). Who are you trying to fool? We also know Harden will embarrass himself in a major game before he has the chance to make the Finals. Because he does this literally every year. Giannis is only now entering his prime, I'll bet on him.

[Infinite Llamas]

Everyone knows that I am a LeBron fan but Harden should win it easily. Only biased haters have LeBron or Giannis even in the race right now.
Harden is just not scoring a crazy amount of points, he is also carrying Rockets to wins. Rockets are only 1 game back of the Lakers.

If you think Harden isn't the clear cut MVP so far then you don't know basketball.

LOL you're adorable.

An actual 2 way player who just lost a borderline All Star is averaging 30/14/7 on better efficiency than Harden for the team with the top SRS in the NBA.

He leads the league in PER, WS, BPM and VORP (also lesser know non puplic stats). Who are you trying to fool? We also know Harden will embarrass himself in a major game before he has the chance to make the Finals. Because he does this literally every year. Giannis is only now entering his prime, I'll bet on him.

Embarrass himself...like Giannis did in game 6 in the fourth quarter a mere 6 months ago?

Giannis efficiency is somewhat stifled by excessive turnovers/offensive fouls and an embarrassing free throw percentage. He’s a wonder within 3 feet but a liability past that. And yes he lost a borderline all star but they have different guys stepping up and putting in all star performances on different nights. Sometimes it’s Lopez or Bledsoe or Hill...they aren’t all star players per se but they are extremely capable of having big games just not consistently. And let’s not forget that it’s Lopez boxing out that contributes greatly to that gaudy rebounding stat.

Everyone says he has improved but outside of a small uptick in 3pt percentage I don’t really see it

[Perseus1966]

You are blind thats why

Please refrain from attacking others.

[scrabbarista]

I might bring in an MVP formula in the next week or two. I've been dabbling, and it looks like Harden and LeBron in some order at the top, Giannis not too far behind, and then no one. But things change very quickly this early in the season, so others might join them soon, or one of them might fall behind.