MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

[djsunyc]

only way luka can win it is if the team wins 55+.

[Triples333]

only way luka can win it is if the team wins 55+.

Definitely not true. They were a 33 win team last year with a projected win total over/under of 40.5 (IE not expected to be a playoff team or all that close to it according to the books and closing lines which were refined by betters). The only teams in the projected ~55 win range were the Bucks, Sixers, Clippers and Rockets. Lakers were projected over 50 but not quite 55.

If Luka takes that team to 48-50 wins with an efficient ~30/10/10, he's going to be garnering massive MVP buzz and could very well win it (I don't think he will, but I see him top 3 and I do think he has a shot). Westbrook won it with 47 wins 3 years ago.

[djsunyc]

only way luka can win it is if the team wins 55+.

Definitely not true. They were a 33 win team last year with a projected win total over/under of 40.5 (IE not expected to be a playoff team or all that close to it according to the books and closing lines which were refined by betters). The only teams in the projected ~55 win range were the Bucks, Sixers, Clippers and Rockets. Lakers were projected over 50 but not quite 55.

If Luka takes that team to 48-50 wins with an efficient ~30/10/10, he's going to be garnering massive MVP buzz and could very well win it (I don't think he will, but I see him top 3 and I do think he has a shot). Westbrook won it with 47 wins 3 years ago.

he'll get alot of buzz but westbrook won it with the trip double. first time since oscar. that's not a novelty anymore.

giannis is destroying again. it will have to be something super human to take it from him.

[Triples333]

only way luka can win it is if the team wins 55+.

Definitely not true. They were a 33 win team last year with a projected win total over/under of 40.5 (IE not expected to be a playoff team or all that close to it according to the books and closing lines which were refined by betters). The only teams in the projected ~55 win range were the Bucks, Sixers, Clippers and Rockets. Lakers were projected over 50 but not quite 55.

If Luka takes that team to 48-50 wins with an efficient ~30/10/10, he's going to be garnering massive MVP buzz and could very well win it (I don't think he will, but I see him top 3 and I do think he has a shot). Westbrook won it with 47 wins 3 years ago.

he'll get alot of buzz but westbrook won it with the trip double. first time since oscar. that's not a novelty anymore.

giannis is destroying again. it will have to be something super human to take it from him.

It's still a novelty. Nobody but Westbrook has done it in half a century and the kid is 20 + doing this on higher efficiency. If the Bucks 60 win team from 2018/19 wins 5 less games and the Mavs 33 win team comes within 5-8 wins of him, he's potentially going to win it. Luka is BY FAR the best narrative as well, don't discount that.

I don't think Luka is the MVP as of now, but no he won't need 55+ to win. A 50 win HCA would do it and could potentially rightfully earn it. Again, that said, I absolutely don't buy him as MVP currently. But damn he sure will be an MVP candidate for the next decade+ if he stays healthy including this season.

[bb22]

Definitely not true. They were a 33 win team last year with a projected win total over/under of 40.5 (IE not expected to be a playoff team or all that close to it according to the books and closing lines which were refined by betters). The only teams in the projected ~55 win range were the Bucks, Sixers, Clippers and Rockets. Lakers were projected over 50 but not quite 55.

If Luka takes that team to 48-50 wins with an efficient ~30/10/10, he's going to be garnering massive MVP buzz and could very well win it (I don't think he will, but I see him top 3 and I do think he has a shot). Westbrook won it with 47 wins 3 years ago.

he'll get alot of buzz but westbrook won it with the trip double. first time since oscar. that's not a novelty anymore.

giannis is destroying again. it will have to be something super human to take it from him.

It's still a novelty. Nobody but Westbrook has done it in half a century and the kid is 20 + doing this on higher efficiency. If the Bucks 60 win team from 2018/91 wins 5 less games and the Mavs 33 win team comes within 5-8 wins of him, he's potentially going to win it. Luka is BY FAR the best narrative as well, don't discount that.

I don't think Luka is the MVP as of now, but no he won't need 55+ to win. A 50 win HCA would do it and could potentially rightfully earn it.

Ya I don't think Luka will get the Westbrook treatment no matter his averages. As is almost always the case (rightfully or not), it's gonna be someone on either team that finishes top in their conference (maybe 2nd best in the West). Mavs gotta win the west for Luka to win MVP. He has plenty of seasons to win MVP, but it's not happening this year unless they win the West.

[Triples333]

he'll get alot of buzz but westbrook won it with the trip double. first time since oscar. that's not a novelty anymore.

giannis is destroying again. it will have to be something super human to take it from him.

It's still a novelty. Nobody but Westbrook has done it in half a century and the kid is 20 + doing this on higher efficiency. If the Bucks 60 win team from 2018/91 wins 5 less games and the Mavs 33 win team comes within 5-8 wins of him, he's potentially going to win it. Luka is BY FAR the best narrative as well, don't discount that.

I don't think Luka is the MVP as of now, but no he won't need 55+ to win. A 50 win HCA would do it and could potentially rightfully earn it.

Ya I don't think Luka will get the Westbrook treatment no matter his averages. As is almost always the case (rightfully or not), it's gonna be someone on either team that finishes top in their conference (maybe 2nd best in the West). Mavs gotta win the west for Luka to win MVP. He has plenty of seasons to win MVP, but it's not happening this year unless they win the West.

I disagree due to the likely top 3 teams in the West (Lakers, Rockets, Clippers) being chalk full of 6 MVP winners or top candidates in the past few years. The Mavs were not only not meant to be a playoff team (especially around any of these teams range), but have no legit second star (we don't need to turn this into a Porzingis bash moment, but he has been trash). It sets up the narrative for Doncic in the West if they somehow make their way to HCA.

We will see how the next couple months play out. If they're 10+ over 500 by the ASB, look out, because the media will be having an even bigger frenzy over him and the stats will likely make a solid case (as is they are arguably the best in the NBA, advanced and otherwise).

[ReasonablySober]

Giannis had a bad night and put up 24/19/15/3/1 on the best team in the league.

The MVP is gonna be his for the next half decade.

[EArl]

My vote currently goes to Giannis as well. Love watching him play.

[Perseus1966]

I think it will be important who will win games against each other ,if bucks win Lakers and Rockets giannis will win mvp again (like last year won both against harden)

[scrabbarista]

Looking to post my first rankings with my revised formula before Thanksgiving. The new formula still gives the last eight MVP's correctly. Obviously, it's very difficult mathematically to justify Derrick Rose over LeBron James in 2011, so that's the first exception going backwards. It has Giannis last season over Harden by a score of 23.0625 to 23.045. I had to bend the formula a bit to get Giannis in front, but it was important to me not to get all revisionist on y'all (my old formula also had Giannis on top in 2019). The greatest modern MVP is probably 2016 Curry, with a score of 31.3. The average MVP seems to be about a 26, and Giannis last season seems to have set the minimum standard at the iconic number 23.

Right now I have LeBron James by a decent margin, then Giannis edging Harden in a(nother) virtual tie. Siakam is probably the next guy who deserves a look. This doesn't include Giannis' game tonight, except the team W, so he might've moved into first for all I know.

A lot could change in the upcoming week!

[Mr Puddles]

Honestly looking the MVP candidates and their respective ages we might experience a streak of international MVPs in the coming years.

Giannis, Embiid, Jokic, Doncic - all guys who are 25 and under - look like the front runners for years to come

[WHITE_HOT_HEAT]

Giannis had a bad night and put up 24/19/15/3/1 on the best team in the league.

The MVP is gonna be his for the next half decade.

What?

[LikeABosh]

Giannis had a bad night and put up 24/19/15/3/1 on the best team in the league.

The MVP is gonna be his for the next half decade.

What?

Blazers are legit without Lillard

[Perseus1966]

Honestly looking the MVP candidates and their respective ages we might experience a streak of international MVPs in the coming years.

Giannis, Embiid, Jokic, Doncic - all guys who are 25 and under - look like the front runners for years to come

Except Luka all the others are american products .

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Giannis had a bad night and put up 24/19/15/3/1 on the best team in the league.

The MVP is gonna be his for the next half decade.

What?

Blazers are legit without Lillard

I'm assuming he meant the Bucks are the best team in the league and Giannis is the reason why.

[Archx]

NBA.com published new MVP ladder. Luka jumped from 9th spot and is at the moment in 3rd place. Quite amazing even though it's a small sample size.

https://www.nba.com/article/2019/11/22/kia-mvp-ladder-nov-22-edition-2019-20

[Osirus89]

Giannis has to be the leader in the clubhouse due to the fact that he has the second best record in the league while not having another top 15 player on his team. Lebron will get some votes subtracted due to him being with Anthony Davis but he also gets the LA media bump so he has to be at worst 2nd right now.

Harden is probably third due to record and teams expected outcome. Outside of the recent loss to Denver, who are always good at home, they are coming off an 8 game winning streak that he was the driving force for.

Doncic.... he has a case for top 4 MVP voting right now, but I see no way that holds for the entirety of the season outside of just people hyping him to win the award. There are a few guys that are carrying their teams well. Jokic is doing well in Denver. Siakam has emerged for Toronto. Dallas is not better than LAL, LAC, HOU, UTAH, DEN. That puts them at around the sixth seed and they don't have much separation from Phoenix or Minnesota. If they go on a losing streak or struggle, they will fall to 7-8 seed and then there is no chance he can win MVP. Dallas can't slip up at all.

[foreigngrammar]

Honestly looking the MVP candidates and their respective ages we might experience a streak of international MVPs in the coming years.

Giannis, Embiid, Jokic, Doncic - all guys who are 25 and under - look like the front runners for years to come

Except Luka all the others are american products .

Who?

[Chanel Bomber]

Honestly looking the MVP candidates and their respective ages we might experience a streak of international MVPs in the coming years.

Giannis, Embiid, Jokic, Doncic - all guys who are 25 and under - look like the front runners for years to come

The NBA's worst nightmare.

[levon]

Giannis has to be the leader in the clubhouse due to the fact that he has the second best record in the league while not having another top 15 player on his team. Lebron will get some votes subtracted due to him being with Anthony Davis but he also gets the LA media bump so he has to be at worst 2nd right now.

Harden is probably third due to record and teams expected outcome. Outside of the recent loss to Denver, who are always good at home, they are coming off an 8 game winning streak that he was the driving force for.

NetRtg on-court/off-court
Giannis 12.1 - 2.9 = 10.1
Lebron 14.0 - -5.6 = 19.6
Harden 10.5 - -9.4 = 19.9

If MVP is most valuable for their team, it's between Lebron and Harden and Giannis "isn't even close". The Bucks seem to be far more self sufficient than the Lakers or Rockets.

By the way, last year Harden's value was around 4, whereas Giannis was around 9.

If MVP is best regular season player, it's between Giannis and Harden, pick your flavor.

I think you're underestimating the Bucks' total talent level. The Lakers and Rockets are top-heavy.