Bradley Beal - Part III

[tontoz]

Pretty sure jangles was being sarcastic about the "trade Beal" discussion over the summer.

If at some point Beal demands a trade, then you look for a trade. Until then mgt should do their best to keep him. Not a tough decision process here.

[pcbothwel]

Trade him. Set up the future of the franchise.

Easier said than done. I'm open to trading Beal just as I'm open to trading anybody. But you find me a deal that gives us a fair value for a 26 year old All-NBA caliber player.

The problem is, the teams in win now mode that want him don't have the assets to get him.

Cant trade him... He simply checks too many boxes. Age, production, skill set, Work ethic, Personality/ability to lead... Only acceptable package is still over a year away and would need to be a clear Hail Mary overpay by some GM

Its hard for me to get a good comp... But its in the Kobe/Wade Category at this point (Not pure production, but all around team effect and reliability)

Beal (Per 100) - 25-26
33.5 / 6.4 / 7.2 TS of 58%, USG of 29%, OBPM 4.1

Kobe (Per 100) - 25-29
38.5 / 7.5 / 6.8 TS of 57%, USG of 33%, OBPM 6.0

Wade (Per 100) - 25-29
38 / 7.3 / 9.2 TS of 57%, USG of 34%, OBPM 6.2

Very interesting considering Beal still looks to be improving... excited about the next 3 years assuming Rui & Brown become legit threats and Wall comes back to form.

[Kanyewest]

If it wasn't for that great play by Fultz near the end, last night could have been his best game of the 3 - not statistically but as far as just putting the team on his back. It'll be interesting see how Fultz does going forward. That was a superstar play by him.

Not to take anything away from Fultz, who had his best game of the season last night (maybe his career) but that pass he stole was a bad decision by Brad...and not a superstar play by Fultz. BB should have taken the layup.

Nah - at least not the way I saw it. There was a defender coming up that had a good angle on Brad. It was a great play by Fultz, because he anticipated it and got a jump on it. Then his length and athleticism made it look a lot easier than it was. It was a phenominal play, imo.

BTW, here is the replay

https://streamable.com/1f0jy

I'm somewhere in the middle of you two

[prime1time]

I just watched the highlights of tonight's game. All I can say is wow. The looks that Beal is getting are just amazing. Early this season he was pressing. Trying to do everything one-on-one. But now he's doing everything in the flow of the offense. Moving without the ball ala Steph Curry. On one three, he gave up the ball. Repositioned himself, got the ball back and knocked down the three. That's Steph Curry right there. By getting his looks through the flow of the offense, he gets such great attempts. Even his misses were on good shots. A couple of layups, wide-open 3's, and only a handful of two mid-range shots.

Going forward, I'd love to see him add more Steph and Harden to his game. Regardless of what people say, drawing fouls is a skill. If Beal can knock his FT up to around 10 a game (he's at 7.5 now), he'd really be cooking. Also, I'd love to see Beal start to give up the Ball more and reposition himself as Steph does. It's obvious when Steph does it, that the whole team is focused on getting the ball back to him. And a lot of times, it seems like it's not playground basketball. Randomly off rebounds or loose plays, teammates will set screens for Steph and the team will know to get him the ball. I would love to see the Wiz get to this point.

Beal will not get the respect he deserves until he performs at a high level in the playoffs. But I think we, at the very least, have to acknowledge the following. Regardless of what anyone else thinks, Beal sees himself as a potential #1 option on a championship team. And his presence, might and should be expected to draw stars from around the league.

[nate33]

Going forward, I'd love to see him add more Steph and Harden to his game. Regardless of what people say, drawing fouls is a skill. If Beal can knock his FT up to around 10 a game (he's at 7.5 now), he'd really be cooking. Also, I'd love to see Beal start to give up the Ball more and reposition himself as Steph does. It's obvious when Steph does it, that the whole team is focused on getting the ball back to him. And a lot of times, it seems like it's not playground basketball. Randomly off rebounds or loose plays, teammates will set screens for Steph and the team will know to get him the ball. I would love to see the Wiz get to this point.

I don't think 10 FTAs per game is realistic. There are only two guys in the league that average 10+ free throws and they're both freaks: Harden and Giannis. Doncic averages 9.3 FTA's per game. Everyone else is at 8.1 or lower. Beal is averaging 7.0 attempts (after getting just 2 versus San Antonio) which ranks him 10th.

Looking at FTA's per 100 possessions is probably a better way of comparing him to his competition:


Among top scorers, he draws free throws roughly as much as Anthony Davis, Damian Lilliard, Kawhi Leonard, Demarr Derozan, Westbrook and D'Angelo Russell, so that's pretty good company. I'd like to see him move up a bit to that Lou Williams/Jimmy Butler range, but that's probably the most we can expect. Overall, I'm pretty happy he's goosed that number up to 8.8 per 100, which is way better than his previous career high of 7.0 per 100. I'm more concerned that that number might drift downward as the season wears on.

[prime1time]

Going forward, I'd love to see him add more Steph and Harden to his game. Regardless of what people say, drawing fouls is a skill. If Beal can knock his FT up to around 10 a game (he's at 7.5 now), he'd really be cooking. Also, I'd love to see Beal start to give up the Ball more and reposition himself as Steph does. It's obvious when Steph does it, that the whole team is focused on getting the ball back to him. And a lot of times, it seems like it's not playground basketball. Randomly off rebounds or loose plays, teammates will set screens for Steph and the team will know to get him the ball. I would love to see the Wiz get to this point.

I don't think 10 FTAs per game is realistic. There are only two guys in the league that average 10+ free throws and they're both freaks: Harden and Giannis. Doncic averages 9.3 FTA's per game. Everyone else is at 8.1 or lower. Beal is averaging 7.0 attempts (after getting just 2 versus San Antonio) which ranks him 10th.

Looking at FTA's per 100 possessions is probably a better way of comparing him to his competition:


Among top scorers, he draws free throws roughly as much as Anthony Davis, Damian Lilliard, Kawhi Leonard, Demarr Derozan, Westbrook and D'Angelo Russell, so that's pretty good company. I'd like to see him move up a bit to that Lou Williams/Jimmy Butler range, but that's probably the most we can expect. Overall, I'm pretty happy he's goosed that number up to 8.8 per 100, which is way better than his previous career high of 7.0 per 100. I'm more concerned that that number might drift downward as the season wears on.

It might be realistic, but it's the most logical place for him to move forward. Drawing fouls is a skill. Harden does it exceedingly well. In fact I'd argue that the game is going through a revolution right now. Look at how far and away Harden is on that list. Harden more than double's Beal. He might never reach 10 FT's a game, but it's a place where he should really be trying to improve.

[nate33]

Beal's first 2 games of the season were really bad, mostly due to him going 4-22 from 3-point range.

From Game 3 onward, he is averaging 32.8 points, 6.8 assists and 4.4 boards on a .621 TS% and a 3P% of .382. That's basically equivalent to James Harden over the past 2 seasons.

[DCsOwn]

Beal's first 2 games of the season were really bad, mostly due to him going 4-22 from 3-point range.

From Game 3 onward, he is averaging 32.8 points, 6.8 assists and 4.4 boards on a .621 TS% and a 3P% of .382. That's basically equivalent to James Harden over the past 2 seasons.

It'll be interesting to see how high he can ascend in the pantheon of great 2 guards in league history. He drew Ray Allen comps coming out of college, but I watched Allen throughout his college career and quite closely during his first seven or so years in the league. Ray Allen was not nearly as multi-dimensional as Brad is (although he was the better pure shooter). Regardless, I'd take Brad over Allen right now in their respective primes if I had to choose between the two and there might be a bit more ceiling remaining for Brad. Beal is obviously not nearly as accomplished as Ray was, but to me, Beal has the better skill package, and there's an argument that Allen is a top 6 or 7 shooting guard of all time.

[nate33]

Beal's first 2 games of the season were really bad, mostly due to him going 4-22 from 3-point range.

From Game 3 onward, he is averaging 32.8 points, 6.8 assists and 4.4 boards on a .621 TS% and a 3P% of .382. That's basically equivalent to James Harden over the past 2 seasons.

It'll be interesting to see how high he can ascend in the pantheon of great 2 guards in league history. He drew Ray Allen comps coming out of college, but I watched Allen throughout his college career and quite closely during his first seven or so years in the league. Ray Allen was not nearly as multi-dimensional as Brad is (although he was the better pure shooter). Regardless, I'd take Brad over Allen right now in their respective primes if I had to choose between the two and there might be a bit more ceiling remaining for Brad. Beal is obviously not nearly as accomplished as Ray was, but to me, Beal has the better skills package, and there's an argument that Allen is a top 6 or 7 shooting guard of all time.

Yeah, he was always compared to Allen because of Beal's sweet-looking shooting stroke. But the fact is, Beal was never as good of a shooter as Allen and is better at other facets of the game. For now, I'd say the closest facsimile in terms of style is Mitch Richmond. But Beal is a bit better.

Beal really could climb the chart of all time great shooting guards. I don't think he'll ever reach the level of Jordan, West, Kobe or Harden; and probably not Wade either. But he could rank up there with Miller, Richmond and Allen (and presumably Klay).

[DCsOwn]

Beal's first 2 games of the season were really bad, mostly due to him going 4-22 from 3-point range.

From Game 3 onward, he is averaging 32.8 points, 6.8 assists and 4.4 boards on a .621 TS% and a 3P% of .382. That's basically equivalent to James Harden over the past 2 seasons.

It'll be interesting to see how high he can ascend in the pantheon of great 2 guards in league history. He drew Ray Allen comps coming out of college, but I watched Allen throughout his college career and quite closely during his first seven or so years in the league. Ray Allen was not nearly as multi-dimensional as Brad is (although he was the better pure shooter). Regardless, I'd take Brad over Allen right now in their respective primes if I had to choose between the two and there might be a bit more ceiling remaining for Brad. Beal is obviously not nearly as accomplished as Ray was, but to me, Beal has the better skills package, and there's an argument that Allen is a top 6 or 7 shooting guard of all time.

Yeah, he was always compared to Allen because of Beal's sweet-looking shooting stroke. But the fact is, Beal was never as good of a shooter as Allen and is better at other facets of the game. For now, I'd say the closest facsimile in terms of style is Mitch Richmond. But Beal is a bit better.

Beal really could climb the chart of all time great shooting guards. I don't think he'll ever reach the level of Jordan, West, Kobe or Harden; and probably not Wade either. But he could rank up there with Miller, Richmond and Allen (and presumably Klay).

Agreed on all counts, although I'd put Wade into that first group in terms of being unreachable for Brad. I'll never forget Wade's utter evisceration of the Wizards in that playoff series where the Heat were without O'Neal and swept the Wizards. The man was a hyper nova in his prime.

With regard to the other grouping, I like Beal better than any of them from a pure talent perspective frankly (although Klay's two way ability and random incandescent games give me some pause). That's not to say that he'll be regarded as better than all of them historically, he'll have to marry accomplishment with that ability, but purely in basketball terms, I think Beal is the most talented of that quartet offensively, and I also think that he's athletic enough to be a neutral defender (maybe a slight plus defender) when he wants to be.

[nate33]

I'd put Wade into that first group in terms of being unreachable for Brad. I'll never forget Wade's utter evisceration of the Wizards in that playoff series where the Heat were without O'Neal and swept the Wizards. The man was a hyper nova in his prime.

I hear you. Wade's 8 best seasons were really awesome. 5 or 6 of them were better than what Beal did last year and his 3 best years are likely to be better than what Beal is doing this year.

I'm only dinging Wade because of his relatively short peak. Beal could conceivably play 7 more years at his current output (or maybe even better). If so, then his career will compare with Wade - particularly if Beal wins a couple of titles. I'm not saying it's likely, but it is possible.

[Halcyon]

Health will be a large factor in terms of where he ends up, career wise. He's playing heavy minutes and you have to wonder if that will take a toll at some point.

[Jamaaliver]

The Top 25 Players of the First 25ish Games

13. Bradley Beal, Wizards

Highest rank: 8th
Lowest rank: NR
27.4 points, 7 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 50.7 eFG%, -6.5 net rating

Jonathan Tjarks: With John Wall out of the picture in Washington for the time being, Beal has made the transition from off-ball threat to primary ball-handler. He no longer gets to pick and choose when to attack. He’s running the show on every possession, and he’s doing it as well as any point guard in the league. Beal is averaging 27 points and seven assists per game while directing a top-five offense whose second-best player is ... rookie Rui Hachimura? A rejuvenated Isaiah Thomas? The great Latvian gunslinger Davis Bertans? Beal surprised many when he agreed to an extension with the Wizards. Now the question is whether their new front office can put a team around him that is worthy of his talents.

The Ringer

[nate33]

I've been down on Beal a bit lately but then I caught Bill Simmons on the Zach Lowe podcast and he put it in perspective. Beal is playing with absolute trash as teammates in the starting lineup - particularly with Bryant out. Think about it. He's got the rookie Hachimura, who fivethirtyeight ranks as literally one of the 3 worst players in the league. He's got Ian freaking Mahinmi - a guy that was washed up 4 years ago. He's got Isaac Bonga who honestly should be in the G League right now. And he's got Isaiah Thomas, who may well be the worst defensive player in NBA history. Literally none of these guys would even crack the 10-man rotation on a .500 team. Somehow, Beal is dragging that crew to play half-decent basketball against the opposition's starters.

The team has only three competent (healthy) players on the roster besides Beal: Bertans, Ish and Brown. Brooks has them all coming off the bench so our bench can outplay other benches. That explains the -6.5 net rating.

Lebron James would have a tough time maintaining a positive on/off differential under these circumstances.

[DCZards]

I've been down on Beal a bit lately but then I caught Bill Simmons on the Zach Lowe podcast and he put it in perspective. Beal is playing with absolute trash as teammates in the starting lineup - particularly with Bryant out. Think about it. He's got the rookie Hachimura, who fivethirtyeight ranks as literally one of the 3 worst players in the league. He's got Ian freaking Mahinmi - a guy that was washed up 4 years ago. He's got Isaac Bonga who honestly should be in the G League right now. And he's got Isaiah Thomas, who may well be the worst defensive player in NBA history. Literally none of these guys would even crack the 10-man rotation on a .500 team. Somehow, Beal is dragging that crew to play half-decent basketball against the opposition's starters.

The team has only three competent (healthy) players on the roster besides Beal: Bertans, Ish and Brown. Brooks has them all coming off the bench so our bench can outplay other benches. That explains the -6.5 net rating.

Lebron James would have a tough time maintaining a positive on/off differential under these circumstances.

C’mon Nate. I know it didn’t take a Zach Lowe podcast for you to recognize the hand that BB has been dealt. You’re smarter than that. The “trash” has gotten even worse with McRae, Rui, Wagner and Bryant out.

G-leaguers like Matthews, Schofield, Bonga and AP are being forced to play quality minutes. On the bright side, the Zards are getting a great opportunity to develop and evaluate their young talent.

Beal does deserve some criticism though. He’s too often trying to dribble through or shoot over double teams. He needs to look for and trust his teammates more in that situation. He also absolutely must get his 3 pter groove back.

I just have to give some love to the "washed up" Ian. He’s been a decent rim protector since coming off the injured list and has been active on the boards…things this Zards team desperately need from someone.

[payitforward]

There's something to nate's point -- Brad isn't getting a whole lot of clean looks. But, I'd say he still seems to think he needs to do it all on his own. Which he can't.

So... if you're going to lose, at least lose playing the right way not the wrong way. Brad continually forcing the issue results in him posting the same TS% as Isaac Bonga! Not the desired result, I don't think

Now... this doesn't apply to last night's game vs. the Raps of course.

[dckingsfan]

I assume we are all hoping he sits out a couple of weeks and gets really healthy?

[nate33]

I assume we are all hoping he sits out a couple of weeks and gets really healthy?

Yes. I'd rather accumulate losses and give the youngsters reps right now. Later in the season, I'd like to see a mostly healthy team with Wall, Beal, Bertans and Bryant all together and see how successful they can be in March and April.

[dckingsfan]

I assume we are all hoping he sits out a couple of weeks and gets really healthy?

Yes. I'd rather accumulate losses and give the youngsters reps right now. Later in the season, I'd like to see a mostly healthy team with Wall, Beal, Bertans and Bryant all together and see how successful they can be in March and April.

I hadn't considered that part of the equation. A healthy team looks like what right now? This?

Wall/Ish
Beal/McRae
Bonga/Brown
Hachimura/Bertans
Bryant/Wagner

Who are the three other players you keep around for next year to go along with the pick?

[nate33]

I assume we are all hoping he sits out a couple of weeks and gets really healthy?

Yes. I'd rather accumulate losses and give the youngsters reps right now. Later in the season, I'd like to see a mostly healthy team with Wall, Beal, Bertans and Bryant all together and see how successful they can be in March and April.

I hadn't considered that part of the equation. A healthy team looks like what right now? This?

Wall/Ish
Beal/McRae
Bonga/Brown
Hachimura/Bertans
Bryant/Wagner

Who are the three other players you keep around for next year to go along with the pick?

Mathews and Schofield for sure. The third guy would depend on who we pick in the 1st and 2nd round and what position they play.

Assuming our 1st is not used on a PG, I'd probably lean toward keeping a PG with that final spot. If I had to choose now, I'd take Payton.

Another consideration is that we might use the full MLE in the offseason too. I dread the thought that Bonga is our starting SF.