Woj: Malcolm Brogdon S&T to Pacers for Picks (NO TPE)

[humanrefutation]

And we have apparently been missing our second best player...injuries and load management happen which, you are right, not factored in to SRS, but is the most widely accepted measure of strength of schedule that I am aware of.

I ABSOLUTELY think this roster is better than this time last year. And I think it is a hair better than the roster we ended the season with, but I'd understand if someone didn't see it that way.

We weren't missing Middleton for most of those games, and the players they were missing were, with the exception of Boston and Jaylen Brown, their best player by far. It's misleading at best to keep citing that as evidence of anything, IMO.

I don't think I'm prepared to say that this team is better than it was last year - perhaps we can argue better depth with Robin Lopez and Korver and more development from Donte and Sterling, which is good of course. But the top-end of this roster is worse than it was last year, unquestionably, simply by swapping Brogdon for Matthews.

Look at it more as Hill replacing Brogdon's role, who actually has a higher TS% than Brogdon had last year. The theoretical top end talent may have been higher last year, but in actuality with Bud's system, it isn't.

Except Hill was on the roster for most of last season, and is effectively playing the same number of minutes he was playing last season. Matthews is the big difference - he's playing about 25mpg this year. Brogdon was playing 29mpg last season. And Wes is playing the role Brogdon was playing last year, with less versatility because he can't run the point.

[crkone]

It's funny that people keep citing our "toughest schedule in the league." It's almost annoying how much that has ignored an important detail:

Almost every one of our tough matchups has sat one of their best - if not their best - player:

Heat sat Butler (and we lost anyway).
Boston sat Brown (and we lost anyway).
Clippers sat Kawhi and PG was still hurt.
Portland sat Lillard
Indy sat Brogdon
Wolves sat KAT

Does anyone really look at this team and think we are better than they were last year? Because while I still think we're very good, we weren't aren't worldbeaters like we were last year. I think it has to do with more than the Brogdon loss - to be clear. But I think we're more exposed overall - when the threes aren't falling, we turtle up.

Three's haven't been falling all year. The Bucks have dominated the paint, while being 20th in three point percentage. Hilariously enough two of our loses are against teams that are hitting 40% of their threes.

That's concerning for our long-term title prospects. I'm generally comparing ourselves to the teams we'll be battling for a title, and it feels like if our threes aren't falling, they can collapse on Giannis with little consequence, just like the Raptors did last year. We have no "Plan B" right now. Brogdon isn't that kind of superstar, but he is one of the few guys on the roster last year during the ECF who could create and make shots.

They now have two guys who can create shots for themselves on the block with the Lopez bros where they have actually been excellent this season. (13/26 and 9/18 in the paint outside of the RA). Also in midrange they've been 4/6 and 2/2. They've already went to this a few times this season with pretty good results. What is actually interesting is they've upped their elbow touches this season by 3 more touches per game from league least last year to 8th most this season.

[humanrefutation]

Three's haven't been falling all year. The Bucks have dominated the paint, while being 20th in three point percentage. Hilariously enough two of our loses are against teams that are hitting 40% of their threes.

That's concerning for our long-term title prospects. I'm generally comparing ourselves to the teams we'll be battling for a title, and it feels like if our threes aren't falling, they can collapse on Giannis with little consequence, just like the Raptors did last year. We have no "Plan B" right now. Brogdon isn't that kind of superstar, but he is one of the few guys on the roster last year during the ECF who could create and make shots.

They now have two guys who can create shots for themselves on the block with the Lopez bros where they have actually been excellent this season. (13/26 and 9/18 in the paint outside of the RA). Also in midrange they've been 4/6 and 2/2. They've already went to this a few times this season with pretty good results. What is actually interesting is they've upped their elbow touches this season by 3 more touches per game from league least last year to 8th most this season.

I don't really buy Robin as a credible offensive player, but Brook has demonstrated that he can be effective inside the paint. That would be an important countermeasure for sure, but I think Bledsoe's ability to break down a defense is even more important in the long run, and that is dependent on him not self-combusting once again during the playoffs. It would also help if Middleton became more active off the ball, instead of spending a lot of time standing in the corner missing shots like he did last ECF. Some nice pick-and-pop action with Giannis would help.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

Except Hill was on the roster for most of last season, and is effectively playing the same number of minutes he was playing last season. Matthews is the big difference - he's playing about 25mpg this year. Brogdon was playing 29mpg last season. And Wes is playing the role Brogdon was playing last year, with less versatility because he can't run the point.

wes is technically playing brogdons role for the moment but do you really believe hes the longterm plan?

i believe when wes is used in discussion as it relates to brogdon its for the effect of furthering an agenda. facts are he was brought in long term for snells role. brown/ddv is brogdons role.....and for now they are playing those 29 minutes just fine and dandy.

also remind yourself that a lot of the minutes the guys are getting this year are inflated from last year because last year brogdon didn't play 29mpg. for a good chunk of last season he was playing 0mpg

[soxperry]

To the people who are stumping for Bledsoe...

So you're completely comfortable facing Philly in the playoffs with Bledsoe?

Let me rephrase that:

You're completely comfortable going up against an incredibly gifted defensive team in the playoffs (again) that will have the added benefit of sagging off Bledsoe at the three point line all series?

Like .. do you understand how basketball works?

So we can bench Bledsoe in the series, much like the Toronto series, and have only our backups to try and save us.. or we can deal him now before his third straight playoff failure is documented and get a talented player who can shoot the ball. I would prefer to go all in for a star if possible but if its not, a Bledsoe trade gives us a better chance than we have now.

I dont care how many points he is scoring against scrub regular season teams. Have you watched him play? Half of his decisions are absolute crap.

Bledsoe: He's gotta go

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

To the people who are stumping for Bledsoe...

So you're completely comfortable facing Philly in the playoffs with Bledsoe?

Let me rephrase that:

You're completely comfortable going up against an incredibly gifted defensive team in the playoffs (again) that will have the added benefit of sagging off Bledsoe at the three point line all series?

Like .. do you understand how basketball works?

So we can bench Bledsoe in the series, much like the Toronto series, and have only our backups to try and save us.. or we can deal him now before his third straight playoff failure is documented and get a talented player who can shoot the ball. I would prefer to go all in for a star if possible but if its not, a Bledsoe trade gives us a better chance than we have now.

I dont care how many points he is scoring against scrub regular season teams. Have you watched him play? Half of his decisions are absolute crap.

Bledsoe: He's gotta go

funny you should use philly with simmons at point to pick an argument

[Bucksfan28]

That's concerning for our long-term title prospects. I'm generally comparing ourselves to the teams we'll be battling for a title, and it feels like if our threes aren't falling, they can collapse on Giannis with little consequence, just like the Raptors did last year. We have no "Plan B" right now. Brogdon isn't that kind of superstar, but he is one of the few guys on the roster last year during the ECF who could create and make shots.

They now have two guys who can create shots for themselves on the block with the Lopez bros where they have actually been excellent this season. (13/26 and 9/18 in the paint outside of the RA). Also in midrange they've been 4/6 and 2/2. They've already went to this a few times this season with pretty good results. What is actually interesting is they've upped their elbow touches this season by 3 more touches per game from league least last year to 8th most this season.

I don't really buy Robin as a credible offensive player, but Brook has demonstrated that he can be effective inside the paint. That would be an important countermeasure for sure, but I think Bledsoe's ability to break down a defense is even more important in the long run, and that is dependent on him not self-combusting once again during the playoffs. It would also help if Middleton became more active off the ball, instead of spending a lot of time standing in the corner missing shots like he did last ECF. Some nice pick-and-pop action with Giannis would help.

I've had my skeptical-of-Bud moments for sure, but one thing that in general feels improved is him getting guys different looks that play to -their- strengths, versus the system. Middleton with mid-long 2's, Bledsoe running PnR, Brook in the post, etc.. He may be better prepared this time around to face a wall.

[crkone]

We weren't missing Middleton for most of those games, and the players they were missing were, with the exception of Boston and Jaylen Brown, their best player by far. It's misleading at best to keep citing that as evidence of anything, IMO.

I don't think I'm prepared to say that this team is better than it was last year - perhaps we can argue better depth with Robin Lopez and Korver and more development from Donte and Sterling, which is good of course. But the top-end of this roster is worse than it was last year, unquestionably, simply by swapping Brogdon for Matthews.

Look at it more as Hill replacing Brogdon's role, who actually has a higher TS% than Brogdon had last year. The theoretical top end talent may have been higher last year, but in actuality with Bud's system, it isn't.

Except Hill was on the roster for most of last season, and is effectively playing the same number of minutes he was playing last season. Matthews is the big difference - he's playing about 25mpg this year. Brogdon was playing 29mpg last season. And Wes is playing the role Brogdon was playing last year, with less versatility because he can't run the point.

Hill was garbage for most of the season though. He shot 28% from 3. He's now making the same amount of 3s per game as Brogdon did last year. The only thing we miss is Brogdon's driving, but the effect from that is we are emphasizing a more diverse offense. PnR ball handling possessions are up, PnR roll possessions are up, off-screen possessions are up, and like I said elbow touches are up. We also now have DDV who can fake run the point, which is basically what our PGs do on offense anyway.

[coolhandluke121]

first of all most of this board hopefully turns that nj package down. ... but dallas has moveable contracts. sacto has guys. the lakers would be all over him. ny would be all over him. atlanta would be in. the list goes on and on and on

Sure, many of us would turn that down because those guys can't shoot like Khris and the Bucks need quality over depth right now, and they wouldn't be able to trade those guys as part of a package for a few months after acquiring them. But Brogdon is more proven than either of them and he was a great fit at SG, so they could have kept him instead of Khris without missing a beat while waiting for the right deal to come along. And it's not a question of who the Bucks want (Khris vs. Brogdon or Khris vs. Lavert/Dinwiddie, none of whom make the Bucks better than last year's Raptors, let alone LAL or LAC this year), it's a question of what a team trading away Davis or George or Lillard or Towns would want. I'd put a lot of money on some combo of Brogdon or Lavert, DDV, Brown, Pat C, expiring contracts, and picks being much more appealing in a deal like that.

All the stuff you say about teams being interested in Khris and having contracts to make it work applies just as much to Brogdon, if not more so. The difference is Brogdon also works in a lot more combinations and can be a part of different packages without being too much salary for a team to absorb.

what deal does portland like better for lillard if they decide to blow it up?

Dinwiddie, lavert, nj 1st, indy 1st, indy 2nds
or
brogdon

would you like me to do this with atlanta, dallas, ny, la, sactown, etc etc etc? or do you get my point?

That's rife with questionable at best assumptions and for some reason you continue to completely discount what else the Bucks could have done with the money. Why not get right to the point and call it Brogdon plus whatever else they could have gotten with the $19m in cap space vs. Khris plus a pick in the teens? Why make such a convoluted mess of it with an assumption about what you could trade Khris for? You really think Khris's trade value is that much higher than Brogdon's if they go on the market next month? I don't buy it for a second.

[coolhandluke121]

I was once told by a lot of people on this same board that "you know a contract is bad when you're immediately justifying how it won't be hard to move"....

This whole Brogdon is the better trade asset angle is just one big goal-post moving talking point that'll shield the "we should have kept Brogdon" side from having to ever concede the argument, and I'm still trying to stay pretty neutral on the whole thing.

Lol, what if I told you the people who just want Brogdon back on the team aren't the same people who would rather have chosen him over Khris for asset management reasons? Stop lumping people together for no reason, stop being proud of your refusal to consider any nuance (remember when trading Khris for Hield was a "terrible idea because you're just trading Khris for someone you hope is the same as Khris in a few years"), and go explain to Pistons fans why Tony Snell is worth $10m per year.

[jakecronus8]

My thoughts on this offseason was that it just made no sense. You either go all in on what you had or aim higher. They did neither. Giannis also proving in these last few games that Middleton is just not that much of a difference maker. Giannis is just that good

[coolhandluke121]

My thoughts on this offseason was that it just made no sense. You either go all in on what you had or aim higher. They did neither. Giannis also proving in these last few games that Middleton is just not that much of a difference maker. Giannis is just that good

In their defense, the real issue was mistakes made over the last 5 years leading to having no other options but to overpay to keep most of the team together, without a realistic path to keeping the whole team together. A lot of that is from the Kidd era.

[TroyD92]

To the people who are stumping for Bledsoe...

So you're completely comfortable facing Philly in the playoffs with Bledsoe?

Let me rephrase that:

You're completely comfortable going up against an incredibly gifted defensive team in the playoffs (again) that will have the added benefit of sagging off Bledsoe at the three point line all series?

Like .. do you understand how basketball works?

So we can bench Bledsoe in the series, much like the Toronto series, and have only our backups to try and save us.. or we can deal him now before his third straight playoff failure is documented and get a talented player who can shoot the ball. I would prefer to go all in for a star if possible but if its not, a Bledsoe trade gives us a better chance than we have now.

I dont care how many points he is scoring against scrub regular season teams. Have you watched him play? Half of his decisions are absolute crap.

Bledsoe: He's gotta go

You're insane if you think teams can just sag off Bledsoe. He's still a NBA player and he's not Ben Simmons (who's on Philly btw). So how do you replace his defense? How do you replace his ball handling? How do you replace everything else he provides? Who is this all-star? Who is the bum you'd trade Bledsoe for that gives you half of what he does? That player doens't exist, and if he did why would they trade for the vastly inferior Bledsoe? Giannis is hitting threes can teams really just sag off him like they did in Toronto?

[PG Graveyard]

I still think that long and possibly term we are going to be happy with this trade. We may have some problems putting teams away early in the season here but we are still 12-3 with a big time home/road split. The schedule is really down hill from here.

[Ron Swanson]

I was once told by a lot of people on this same board that "you know a contract is bad when you're immediately justifying how it won't be hard to move"....

This whole Brogdon is the better trade asset angle is just one big goal-post moving talking point that'll shield the "we should have kept Brogdon" side from having to ever concede the argument, and I'm still trying to stay pretty neutral on the whole thing.

Lol, what if I told you the people who just want Brogdon back on the team aren't the same people who would rather have chosen him over Khris for asset management reasons? Stop lumping people together for no reason, stop being proud of your refusal to consider any nuance (remember when trading Khris for Hield was a "terrible idea because you're just trading Khris for someone you hope is the same as Khris in a few years"), and go explain to Pistons fans why Tony Snell is worth $10m per year.

Then that statement pretty obviously wasn't directed at you then was it? What if I were to tell you that you didn't have to "choose" between Brogdon and Middleton and could have paid them both? And, yeah, Buddy Hield pretty obviously isn't as good of a player as Khris Middleton is so that's a really weird anecdote to try and cram in there.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

Sure, many of us would turn that down because those guys can't shoot like Khris and the Bucks need quality over depth right now, and they wouldn't be able to trade those guys as part of a package for a few months after acquiring them. But Brogdon is more proven than either of them and he was a great fit at SG, so they could have kept him instead of Khris without missing a beat while waiting for the right deal to come along. And it's not a question of who the Bucks want (Khris vs. Brogdon or Khris vs. Lavert/Dinwiddie, none of whom make the Bucks better than last year's Raptors, let alone LAL or LAC this year), it's a question of what a team trading away Davis or George or Lillard or Towns would want. I'd put a lot of money on some combo of Brogdon or Lavert, DDV, Brown, Pat C, expiring contracts, and picks being much more appealing in a deal like that.

All the stuff you say about teams being interested in Khris and having contracts to make it work applies just as much to Brogdon, if not more so. The difference is Brogdon also works in a lot more combinations and can be a part of different packages without being too much salary for a team to absorb.

what deal does portland like better for lillard if they decide to blow it up?

Dinwiddie, lavert, nj 1st, indy 1st, indy 2nds
or
brogdon

would you like me to do this with atlanta, dallas, ny, la, sactown, etc etc etc? or do you get my point?

That's rife with questionable at best assumptions and for some reason you continue to completely discount what else the Bucks could have done with the money. Why not get right to the point and call it Brogdon plus whatever else they could have gotten with the $19m in cap space vs. Khris plus a pick in the teens? Why make such a convoluted mess of it with an assumption about what you could trade Khris for? You really think Khris's trade value is that much higher than Brogdon's if they go on the market next month? I don't buy it for a second.

youre suggesting we let the allstar walk and then making an assumption of what we could have done with 19 million in an offseason everybody was getting paid out the ass. yeah sure in know the bojan guys are all up his ass but talk about unknowns we just want to throw that name out there like he was an option?

if we hadn't gone the route we had we could very easily be sitting here with middleton… gone....brogdon… out....the picks from indy…..none. youre the one trying to blow the team up and get creative Im advocating the safe route.

you know I like you as a poster and weve agreed a lot in the past on a lot but it blows my mind to hear you talking about brogdon as if we whiffed something. 85 million on possibly the biggest injury risk guy in the last 25 years. just be glad we averted potential disaster and that every contract on this roster is EASILY moveable if a move needs to be made we got options galore(and some picks from indy )

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

They now have two guys who can create shots for themselves on the block with the Lopez bros where they have actually been excellent this season. (13/26 and 9/18 in the paint outside of the RA). Also in midrange they've been 4/6 and 2/2. They've already went to this a few times this season with pretty good results. What is actually interesting is they've upped their elbow touches this season by 3 more touches per game from league least last year to 8th most this season.

I don't really buy Robin as a credible offensive player, but Brook has demonstrated that he can be effective inside the paint. That would be an important countermeasure for sure, but I think Bledsoe's ability to break down a defense is even more important in the long run, and that is dependent on him not self-combusting once again during the playoffs. It would also help if Middleton became more active off the ball, instead of spending a lot of time standing in the corner missing shots like he did last ECF. Some nice pick-and-pop action with Giannis would help.

I've had my skeptical-of-Bud moments for sure, but one thing that in general feels improved is him getting guys different looks that play to -their- strengths, versus the system. Middleton with mid-long 2's, Bledsoe running PnR, Brook in the post, etc.. He may be better prepared this time around to face a wall.

I gaurantee that was a point of emphasis amongst the staff this offseason. ill bet the the whole offseason was spent breaking down those 4 games against Toronto. and we completely underutilized Bledsoe and middleton in the midrange and lopez in the post to try and break that wall. all 3 of those guys have spent their entire career feasting in those spots and it was a big mistake not to turn them loose a little last spring. seems like maybe that point was made on the staff by the early returns this year

[paulpressey25]

I was once told by a lot of people on this same board that "you know a contract is bad when you're immediately justifying how it won't be hard to move"....

This whole Brogdon is the better trade asset angle is just one big goal-post moving talking point that'll shield the "we should have kept Brogdon" side from having to ever concede the argument, and I'm still trying to stay pretty neutral on the whole thing.

No goal post moving on my part. I’ve been in the Brogdon/Bojan was better for future roster/payroll flexibility from day one versus Middleton. And in the basketball court, I’d rather have those two guys, than one Middleton. (And yes, I would have worked the numbers to keep Hill, which was plausible.)

But, once the Bucks made the decision for Middleton, I’m fine with what they did with Brogdon. It would have been too dicey to have a lux tax cost of $50 to $90mm a year tied to a guy with injury issues AND Middleton’s boat anchor contract also. I’m good with getting those draft picks and Wes. But they should have created that trade exception just in case.

[truly]

To the people who are stumping for Bledsoe...

So you're completely comfortable facing Philly in the playoffs with Bledsoe?

Let me rephrase that:

You're completely comfortable going up against an incredibly gifted defensive team in the playoffs (again) that will have the added benefit of sagging off Bledsoe at the three point line all series?

Like .. do you understand how basketball works?

So we can bench Bledsoe in the series, much like the Toronto series, and have only our backups to try and save us.. or we can deal him now before his third straight playoff failure is documented and get a talented player who can shoot the ball. I would prefer to go all in for a star if possible but if its not, a Bledsoe trade gives us a better chance than we have now.

I dont care how many points he is scoring against scrub regular season teams. Have you watched him play? Half of his decisions are absolute crap.

Bledsoe: He's gotta go

You're insane if you think teams can just sag off Bledsoe. He's still a NBA player and he's not Ben Simmons (who's on Philly btw). So how do you replace his defense? How do you replace his ball handling? How do you replace everything else he provides? Who is this all-star? Who is the bum you'd trade Bledsoe for that gives you half of what he does? That player doens't exist, and if he did why would they trade for the vastly inferior Bledsoe? Giannis is hitting threes can teams really just sag off him like they did in Toronto?

You mean exactly what Toronto did last year when he was so bad he shot 17% from 3?
I have no idea how you can put your trust in Bledsoe at this point.Maybe you forgot how bad he was.

Here is a reminder.

He averaged 10.2 ppg 4.3 rpg 4.2 apg on 39% TS and 17% from 3.That is awful.

I loved Bledsoe last season and had no problem giving him another chance after the Celtics series the year before.But teams will sag off him,pack the paint and he will struggle the same way he did last year.
Philly clearly has one plan in mind.Build a wall and beat the Bucks the same way the Raptors did it.

[Bernman]

To the people who are stumping for Bledsoe...

So you're completely comfortable facing Philly in the playoffs with Bledsoe?

Let me rephrase that:

You're completely comfortable going up against an incredibly gifted defensive team in the playoffs (again) that will have the added benefit of sagging off Bledsoe at the three point line all series?

Like .. do you understand how basketball works?

So we can bench Bledsoe in the series, much like the Toronto series, and have only our backups to try and save us.. or we can deal him now before his third straight playoff failure is documented and get a talented player who can shoot the ball. I would prefer to go all in for a star if possible but if its not, a Bledsoe trade gives us a better chance than we have now.

I dont care how many points he is scoring against scrub regular season teams. Have you watched him play? Half of his decisions are absolute crap.

Bledsoe: He's gotta go

You were dismissive of the Brogdon loss. Now because of it we're priced in with Bledsoe. We can't concede another realistic core player without getting one back, which we won't because of Bledsoe's aforementioned playoff debacles.

So now we just need to ride it out through another playoff season with Bled and hope he doesn't give us bleed us dry again. If he's floundering again he goes to the bench in favor of DiVincenzo.

The way the Bucks can try to improve over last playofs is acquire a big wing who can guard and shoot before the deadline, to mark the likes of Leonard or James, while Middleton's legs are freed up for his own offense. Also is a hedge against Bled's suckitude. Just try to make him a 6th man in that case and he can play more when he's actually on and in lineups where if he's a reliable outside shooter it's a bonus. Space the floor for him to penetrate w/ Giannis in the 1st unit and Bled in the 2nd.