MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

DutchManDanFan · Post #741 » by **DutchManDanFan** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 9:48 am

All we can say now is there are 4 very strong candidates. And with voting you never know. A lot of them want to vote for LeBron, I guess. And he deserves another one. But if it was decided by a scrab formula I think it should be Giannis with a small lead over LeBron now.
Lets see who can maintain/improve their stats and winning records.

AussieBuck · Post #742 » by **AussieBuck** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 9:56 am

DutchManDanFan wrote:All we can say now is there are 4 very strong candidates. And with voting you never know. A lot of them want to vote for LeBron, I guess. And he deserves another one. But if it was decided by a scrab formula I think it should be Giannis with a small lead over LeBron now.
Lets see who can maintain/improve their stats and winning records.

Wouldn't even be mad if Lebron threw out a prime Magic season and they gave him one more for being best player for a decade.

Would still be disappointed tho. Been a crazy two way season for Giannis so far.

DutchManDanFan · Post #743 » by **DutchManDanFan** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:24 am

AussieBuck wrote:
DutchManDanFan wrote:All we can say now is there are 4 very strong candidates. And with voting you never know. A lot of them want to vote for LeBron, I guess. And he deserves another one. But if it was decided by a scrab formula I think it should be Giannis with a small lead over LeBron now.
Lets see who can maintain/improve their stats and winning records.

Wouldn't even be mad if Lebron threw out a prime Magic season and they gave him one more for being best player for a decade.

Would still be disappointed tho. Been a crazy two way season for Giannis so far.

Nope, would not be mad at all. In fact it would be fun to see Giannis eager to improve yet another year....

Nightfall · Post #744 » by **Nightfall** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:11 am

BR's MVP Tracker becomes quite accurate further down the season, now it is quite early. It uses a model based on previous voting results and takes into consideration team record and individual stats as well.

The probabilities so far:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

brettski · Post #745 » by **brettski** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:29 pm

Fico92 wrote:
PistolPeteJR wrote:I think if it ended today Giannis would win, but LeBron is right there.

Doncic and Harden would have no chance to win it if it ended today.

1) The former two are putting MVP numbers on offense, just as the latter two, but have also been exceptional on defense.
2) Team record.

I don’t see Doncic’s numbers being sustained. I’d put money against it, and this is my second favourite player in the league.

I mean, I don't think you'll find anyone to take your bet. He's 20 years old with the highest PER in NBA HISTORY.

After today's game he's a percentage point behind Giannis on PER. Both are still putting up insane historic level PERs though!

scrabbarista · Post #746 » by **scrabbarista** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:44 pm

Nightfall wrote:BR's MVP Tracker becomes quite accurate further down the season, now it is quite early. It uses a model based on previous voting results and takes into consideration team record and individual stats as well.

The probabilities so far:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

My formula also grows more accurate as the season progresses. It matches the last eight winners. I have Giannis (9.9 score) a little over LeBron (9.6) right now. I'll probably post my first full rankings of the season tomorrow morning.

Also, it's telling that this early in the season you still see wild 20% swings from day to day in that bbref formula. It's just so early still.

Nightfall · Post #747 » by **Nightfall** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:49 pm

scrabbarista wrote:
Nightfall wrote:BR's MVP Tracker becomes quite accurate further down the season, now it is quite early. It uses a model based on previous voting results and takes into consideration team record and individual stats as well.

The probabilities so far:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

My formula also grows more accurate as the season progresses. It matches the last eight winners. I have Giannis (9.9 score) a little over LeBron (9.6) right now. I'll probably post my first full rankings of the season tomorrow morning.

Also, it's telling that this early in the season you still see wild 20% swings from day to day in that bbref formula. It's just so early still.

As a person who loves maths and statistics (apart from NBA of course) I would love to see it
I agree about being to early, it is funny to see how crazy fast it changes right now and how much it stabilizes after about mid season

dhsilv2 · Post #748 » by **dhsilv2** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:20 pm

Nightfall wrote:
scrabbarista wrote:
Nightfall wrote:BR's MVP Tracker becomes quite accurate further down the season, now it is quite early. It uses a model based on previous voting results and takes into consideration team record and individual stats as well.

The probabilities so far:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

My formula also grows more accurate as the season progresses. It matches the last eight winners. I have Giannis (9.9 score) a little over LeBron (9.6) right now. I'll probably post my first full rankings of the season tomorrow morning.

Also, it's telling that this early in the season you still see wild 20% swings from day to day in that bbref formula. It's just so early still.

As a person who loves maths and statistics (apart from NBA of course) I would love to see it
I agree about being to early, it is funny to see how crazy fast it changes right now and how much it stabilizes after about mid season

I mean, there's a reason fans keep harping on the idea that the season doesn't really start until christmas.

Sprewell4Three · Post #749 » by **Sprewell4Three** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:23 pm

Giannis is doing without another all star , cmon man this discussion is not even close.

Sprewell4Three · Post #750 » by **Sprewell4Three** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:28 pm

Lebron pretty much forced New Orleans to give him Anthony Davis who is arguably a top 5 player. Giannis is playing without Middleton and has the Bucks atop of the East. It would be criminal for Giannis to not get the MVP if he keeps this up.

LikeABosh · Post #751 » by **LikeABosh** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:38 pm

Sprewell4Three wrote:Lebron pretty much forced New Orleans to give him Anthony Davis who is arguably a top 5 player.

These posts are still funny

Bank Shot · Post #752 » by **Bank Shot** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:44 pm

Barring injury, I'd be very surprised if it didn't end up being Giannis. He has, by far, the best chance of checking all the boxes.

Top record? Locked in. Only LeBron has a shot at a similar record.

No second star? Yep. LeBron will dinged for this, Harden shouldn't but he will, Zinger has been bad but I doubt that continues.

Stats? Harden can hang, I bet Luka slips a bit. LBJ's raw stats won't be as good. TBD on impact numbers.

Defense? Giannis by a mile over the other MVP contenders.

old skool · Post #753 » by **old skool** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:14 pm

Sprewell4Three wrote: .... It would be criminal for Giannis to not get the MVP if he keeps this up.

But that "if" is the point. We still have 80% of the season ahead of us. There will be injuries, trades, losing streaks and long road trips. Let's not rush to figure out something that won't be announced until late June. Seven months from now.

MisterHibachi · Post #754 » by **MisterHibachi** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:20 pm

I'm not surprised playing in the East isn't considered a handicap in MVP discussions anymore.

LikeABosh · Post #755 » by **LikeABosh** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:24 pm

MisterHibachi wrote:I'm not surprised playing in the East isn't considered a handicap in MVP discussions anymore.

8th seed is on pace for 31 wins. Yikes

Dupp · Post #756 » by **Dupp** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:27 pm

MisterHibachi wrote:I'm not surprised playing in the East isn't considered a handicap in MVP discussions anymore.

Are you really though?

DonDoolie · Post #757 » by **DonDoolie** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 9:24 pm

Luka or Giannis the rest are just there for show.

truly · Post #758 » by **truly** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:12 pm

Dupp wrote:
MisterHibachi wrote:I'm not surprised playing in the East isn't considered a handicap in MVP discussions anymore.

Are you really though?

Actually this was brought up last year in the Giannis vs Harden debate but since the Bucks had similar winning % against both conferences it didnt stick.

Vsauce12 · Post #759 » by **Vsauce12** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:35 pm

MisterHibachi wrote:I'm not surprised playing in the East isn't considered a handicap in MVP discussions anymore.

You really can’t use the east argument when the west and east have pretty much been equal thus far and the lakers have ran up their wins by beating 11 teams below .500. They haven’t exactly been destroying world beaters. And I’m pretty sure that bucks opponent total win percentage is higher than the lakers opponent total win percentage thus far

PistolPeteJR · Post #760 » by **PistolPeteJR** » Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:27 pm

Fico92 wrote:
PistolPeteJR wrote:I think if it ended today Giannis would win, but LeBron is right there.

Doncic and Harden would have no chance to win it if it ended today.

1) The former two are putting MVP numbers on offense, just as the latter two, but have also been exceptional on defense.
2) Team record.

I don’t see Doncic’s numbers being sustained. I’d put money against it, and this is my second favourite player in the league.

I mean, I don't think you'll find anyone to take your bet. He's 20 years old with the highest PER in NBA HISTORY.

You lost all credibility when you based your counter argument on PER.

Who is your pick for the 2019-20 MVP?