MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

[PistolPeteJR]

I think if it ended today Giannis would win, but LeBron is right there.

Doncic and Harden would have no chance to win it if it ended today.

1) The former two are putting MVP numbers on offense, just as the latter two, but have also been exceptional on defense.
2) Team record.

I don’t see Doncic’s numbers being sustained. I’d put money against it, and this is my second favourite player in the league.

I mean, I don't think you'll find anyone to take your bet. He's 20 years old with the highest PER in NBA HISTORY.

I don't have anything against Luka and he is one of my favorite players and Top-5 (imo Top-3 at the moment) MVP candidates but PER is a joke especially after less than 20 games. KAT had 40+ after 3 games , Giannis had 35 until recently, now they have the same again. It will change a lot until the end.

See what I mean, Fico?

[old skool]

The West has won about 5 more games than the East, but they have played a ton more home games. Collectively, I think the West has played about 15 more home games than the East.

All of the top East teams have played more road games than at home. Most of the top teams in the West have played more home games than on the road. In the long run that will even out. Not sure how that has impacted games won or lost by conference.

[zimpy27]

It'll be Harden or Giannis this season once 70 games have been played. Rockets will only improve over the season and both players will sustain their level of play.

I think LeBron and Luka both regress their number over the season.

[Dupp]

It'll be Harden or Giannis this season once 70 games have been played. Rockets will only improve over the season and both players will sustain their level of play.

I think LeBron and Luka both regress their number over the season.

This is kind of how I thought things might turn out but I’m starting to really doubt Houston. I think hardens cast is actually quite bad and could see them being quite a few wins off.


Lakers have a brutal December, if they can get through not losing many games they might be a real threat for best record in the league which is the narrative that gives lebron a shot.

[zimpy27]

It'll be Harden or Giannis this season once 70 games have been played. Rockets will only improve over the season and both players will sustain their level of play.

I think LeBron and Luka both regress their number over the season.

This is kind of how I thought things might turn out but I’m starting to really doubt Houston. I think hardens cast is actually quite bad and could see them being quite a few wins off.


Lakers have a brutal December, if they can get through not losing many games they might be a real threat for best record in the league which is the narrative that gives lebron a shot.

Harden/Westbrook duo is actually good together, I'd ignore people blowing hard on this being a significant problem

The actual problem is that Westbrook is a terrible fit with the Rockets bench unit which is who he plays with when Harden sits.
Westbrook, Gordon, Rivers just do not fit at all because of their overlapping abilities. I think it will take time but this is the area where the most improvement will come. Gordon can't be traded this season I don't think so Rivers might need to be moved for a wing or PF.

[ken6199]

Open 3s - closest defender within 4-6 ft

Dallas have 19.5% of their shots being open shots, leading the league. The league 2nd ranked offense, Washington Wizards, ranks 7th in frequency but 1st in shooting percentage with 41.7%. Houston is 2nd in frequency, but 30.4% means they are 26th in FG% as a team (they were 10th last year).

Wide open 3s - closest defender with 6+ ft
Bucks lead the league with 25.9% of their 3s being wide open 3s. Raptors is 4th in frequency, 1st in FG% with 46%. Houston again is ranked 3rd in such shots, but 16th in FG% (5th last year).

At least you know Harden's game hasn't dropped. His teammate flat out sucks (I am talking toyou, Russ). So this "Harden plays with another MVP" crap can rest now.

[bwgood77]

Open 3s - closest defender within 4-6 ft

Dallas have 19.5% of their shots being open shots, leading the league. The league 2nd ranked offense, Washington Wizards, ranks 7th in frequency but 1st in shooting percentage with 41.7%. Houston is 2nd in frequency, but 30.4% means they are 26th in FG% as a team (they were 10th last year).

Wide open 3s - closest defender with 6+ ft
Bucks lead the league with 25.9% of their 3s being wide open 3s. Raptors is 4th in frequency, 1st in FG% with 46%. Houston again is ranked 3rd in such shots, but 16th in FG% (5th last year).

At least you know Harden's game hasn't dropped. His teammate flat out sucks (I am talking toyou, Russ). So this "Harden plays with another MVP" crap can rest now.

Harden doesn't play with another MVP?

[nzahir]

Why is Kawhi even an option?

[ken6199]

Open 3s - closest defender within 4-6 ft

Dallas have 19.5% of their shots being open shots, leading the league. The league 2nd ranked offense, Washington Wizards, ranks 7th in frequency but 1st in shooting percentage with 41.7%. Houston is 2nd in frequency, but 30.4% means they are 26th in FG% as a team (they were 10th last year).

Wide open 3s - closest defender with 6+ ft
Bucks lead the league with 25.9% of their 3s being wide open 3s. Raptors is 4th in frequency, 1st in FG% with 46%. Houston again is ranked 3rd in such shots, but 16th in FG% (5th last year).

At least you know Harden's game hasn't dropped. His teammate flat out sucks (I am talking toyou, Russ). So this "Harden plays with another MVP" crap can rest now.

Harden doesn't play with another MVP?

Contribution wise, no, far from it.

[Barnzy]

It'll be Harden or Giannis this season once 70 games have been played. Rockets will only improve over the season and both players will sustain their level of play.

I think LeBron and Luka both regress their number over the season.

Rockets will not improve. It will be Giannis vs LeBron.

[inquisitive]

Which ever team finishes with the best record will have their MVP. It all depends on how the Bucks, Lakers, and Rockets do.

[AussieBuck]

Which ever team finishes with the best record will have their MVP. It all depends on how the Bucks, Lakers, and Rockets do.

Might not be that clear cut if it's close. Anthony Davis could still steal a lot of Lebron's case by having a great season.

[inquisitive]

Which ever team finishes with the best record will have their MVP. It all depends on how the Bucks, Lakers, and Rockets do.

Might not be that clear cut if it's close. Anthony Davis could still steal a lot of Lebron's case by having a great season.

Not if you listen to the media. Right now its all about Giannis and Lebron

[scrabbarista]

as of the morning of Wednesday, November 27th

1. 9.93 - Antetokounmpo, MIL
2. 9.63 - James, LAL
3. 8.95 - Harden, HOU
4. 8.65 - Siakam, TOR
5. 6.89 - Butler, MIA
----------------------------------
6. 6.29 - Jokic, DEN
7. 6.21 - Gobert, UTA
8. 6.06 - Doncic, DAL
9. 5.99 - Leonard, LAC
10. 5.75 - Lillard, POR

11. 5.72 - Embiid, PHI
12. 5.27 - Towns, MIN

I hope to post once per week for the rest of the season.

To get the elephant (Doncic) out of the room... this formula uses four basic inputs: Win Shares, VORP, the average of +/- and On-Off, and team wins. Three of these four are cumulative, whereas the the average of +/- and On-Off is Per100. This means that +/- and On-Off will take on relatively less weight as the season goes on, while Win Shares, VORP, and team wins will take on relatively more weight. Currently, Doncic is by far the lowest among these twelve in the average of +/- and On-Off. The formula matches the last eight MVP's, so it should be fairly reliable when stretched over an 82 game season.

I chose to use +/- and On-Off instead of RAPM as I did in my old formula for the following reasons. First, RAPM is not always easy to find on the internet. Second - crucially - different sources for RAPM consistently give different results. I had a strong preference for a number that I could easily find on basketball-reference.com.

But the real impetus for changing my formula was the fact that I snafu'd my 2019 spreadsheet. I ended up with a spreadsheet that did not match the final results I posted on RealGM. The results matched the spreadsheet when I posted them, of course, but at some point after the season ended, I altered the spreadsheet. No matter how hard I tried, I couldn't get them to match again. My sheets going back from 2018 to 1997 were all consistent with my RealGM posts, but 2019 was not. There were two possible reasons for the confusion. First, the aforementioned different sources for RAPM: I was unable to determine with certainty where my numbers had come from. (The formula also included a couple of calculations between RAPM and total possessions, which further complicated my search for the correct source.) An even bigger problem was that I was posting 20 names on RealGM, while using a spreadsheet with 34 names - with some names alternating on and off of the spreadsheet from week to week... using a formula that averaged out the scores of the 34 names! So, to find the correct formula, I would have had to find the exact 34 players who gave me the results for the twenty names I posted on RealGM. Long story short, I was unable to even determine the source of the confusion, much less to ameliorate it. Besides my natural affinity for basketball-reference, not being able to reconcile my 2019 results was the biggest motivator in changing my formula. My new formula will be much easier to handle, because it no longer averages itself with the other names in the ranking. I can simply plug in a name, plug in the numbers, and I'm done. Another nice bonus to this approach is that cross-season comparisons are more straightforward.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The minimum MVP score seems to be 23, while 26 seems to be about average. To put their current scores into perspective, that's the range that these players are racing toward. (I.e., there's a long way to go.)

For further perspective - and for fun - here are the most recent winners based on this formula. Ten of these eleven also won the actual MVP, with 2011 being the lone exception.

33.35 - LeBron James, 2009
31.30 - Stephen Curry, 2016
29.82 - LeBron James, 2013
29.81 - LeBron James, 2010
26.90 - Stephen Curry, 2015
25.76 - Kevin Durant, 2014
24.08 - Russell Westbrook, 2017
23.84 - LeBron James, 2011 (the MVP was Derrick Rose, whose score is 18.98)
23.33 - James Harden, 2018
23.06 - Giannis Antetokounmpo, 2019 (James Harden is 23.04)
22.99 - LeBron James, 2012 (the shortened season lowers his score)

At some point, I will begin a thread in the Player Comparison board that revises my results going back to around 2002, with the top twenty finishers for each season.

[Colbinii]

as of the morning of Wednesday, November 27th

1. 9.93 - Antetokounmpo, MIL
2. 9.63 - James, LAL
3. 8.95 - Harden, HOU
4. 8.65 - Siakam, TOR
5. 6.89 - Butler, MIA
----------------------------------
6. 6.29 - Jokic, DEN
7. 6.21 - Gobert, UTA
8. 6.06 - Doncic, DAL
9. 5.99 - Leonard, LAC
10. 5.75 - Lillard, POR

11. 5.72 - Embiid, PHI
12. 5.27 - Towns, MIN

I hope to post once per week for the rest of the season.

To get the elephant (Doncic) out of the room... this formula uses four basic inputs: Win Shares, VORP, the average of +/- and On-Off, and team wins. Three of these four are cumulative, whereas the the average of +/- and On-Off is Per100. This means that +/- and On-Off will take on relatively less weight as the season goes on, while Win Shares, VORP, and team wins will take on relatively more weight. Currently, Doncic is by far the lowest among these twelve in the average of +/- and On-Off. The formula matches the last eight MVP's, so it should be fairly reliable when stretched over an 82 game season.

I chose to use +/- and On-Off instead of RAPM as I did in my old formula for the following reasons. First, RAPM is not always easy to find on the internet. Second - crucially - different sources for RAPM consistently give different results. I had a strong preference for a number that I could easily find on basketball-reference.com.

But the real impetus for changing my formula was the fact that I snafu'd my 2019 spreadsheet. I ended up with a spreadsheet that did not match the final results I posted on RealGM. The results matched the spreadsheet when I posted them, of course, but at some point after the season ended, I altered the spreadsheet. No matter how hard I tried, I couldn't get them to match again. My sheets going back from 2018 to 1997 were all consistent with my RealGM posts, but 2019 was not. There were two possible reasons for the confusion. First, the aforementioned different sources for RAPM: I was unable to determine with certainty where my numbers had come from. (The formula also included a couple of calculations between RAPM and total possessions, which further complicated my search for the correct source.) An even bigger problem was that I was posting 20 names on RealGM, while using a spreadsheet with 34 names - with some names alternating on and off of the spreadsheet from week to week... using a formula that averaged out the scores of the 34 names! So, to find the correct formula, I would have had to find the exact 34 players who gave me the results for the twenty names I posted on RealGM. Long story short, I was unable to even determine the source of the confusion, much less to ameliorate it. Besides my natural affinity for basketball-reference, not being able to reconcile my 2019 results was the biggest motivator in changing my formula. My new formula will be much easier to handle, because it no longer averages itself with the other names in the ranking. I can simply plug in a name, plug in the numbers, and I'm done. Another nice bonus to this approach is that cross-season comparisons are more straightforward.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The minimum MVP score seems to be 23, while 26 seems to be about average. To put their current scores into perspective, that's the range that these players are racing toward. (I.e., there's a long way to go.)

For further perspective - and for fun - here are the most recent winners based on this formula. Ten of these eleven also won the actual MVP, with 2011 being the lone exception.

33.35 - LeBron James, 2009
31.30 - Stephen Curry, 2016
29.82 - LeBron James, 2013
29.81 - LeBron James, 2010
26.90 - Stephen Curry, 2015
25.76 - Kevin Durant, 2014
24.08 - Russell Westbrook, 2017
23.84 - LeBron James, 2011 (the MVP was Derrick Rose, whose score is 18.98)
23.33 - James Harden, 2018
23.06 - Giannis Antetokounmpo, 2019 (James Harden is 23.04)
22.99 - LeBron James, 2012 (the shortened season lowers his score)

At some point, I will begin a thread in the Player Comparison board that revises my results going back to around 2002, with the top twenty finishers for each season.

2009 James was such a monster.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[scrabbarista]

2009 James was such a monster.

Yes, indeed.

[Ambrose]

as of the morning of Wednesday, November 27th

1. 9.93 - Antetokounmpo, MIL
2. 9.63 - James, LAL
3. 8.95 - Harden, HOU
4. 8.65 - Siakam, TOR
5. 6.89 - Butler, MIA
----------------------------------
6. 6.29 - Jokic, DEN
7. 6.21 - Gobert, UTA
8. 6.06 - Doncic, DAL
9. 5.99 - Leonard, LAC
10. 5.75 - Lillard, POR

11. 5.72 - Embiid, PHI
12. 5.27 - Towns, MIN

I hope to post once per week for the rest of the season.

To get the elephant (Doncic) out of the room... this formula uses four basic inputs: Win Shares, VORP, the average of +/- and On-Off, and team wins. Three of these four are cumulative, whereas the the average of +/- and On-Off is Per100. This means that +/- and On-Off will take on relatively less weight as the season goes on, while Win Shares, VORP, and team wins will take on relatively more weight. Currently, Doncic is by far the lowest among these twelve in the average of +/- and On-Off. The formula matches the last eight MVP's, so it should be fairly reliable when stretched over an 82 game season.

I chose to use +/- and On-Off instead of RAPM as I did in my old formula for the following reasons. First, RAPM is not always easy to find on the internet. Second - crucially - different sources for RAPM consistently give different results. I had a strong preference for a number that I could easily find on basketball-reference.com.

But the real impetus for changing my formula was the fact that I snafu'd my 2019 spreadsheet. I ended up with a spreadsheet that did not match the final results I posted on RealGM. The results matched the spreadsheet when I posted them, of course, but at some point after the season ended, I altered the spreadsheet. No matter how hard I tried, I couldn't get them to match again. My sheets going back from 2018 to 1997 were all consistent with my RealGM posts, but 2019 was not. There were two possible reasons for the confusion. First, the aforementioned different sources for RAPM: I was unable to determine with certainty where my numbers had come from. (The formula also included a couple of calculations between RAPM and total possessions, which further complicated my search for the correct source.) An even bigger problem was that I was posting 20 names on RealGM, while using a spreadsheet with 34 names - with some names alternating on and off of the spreadsheet from week to week... using a formula that averaged out the scores of the 34 names! So, to find the correct formula, I would have had to find the exact 34 players who gave me the results for the twenty names I posted on RealGM. Long story short, I was unable to even determine the source of the confusion, much less to ameliorate it. Besides my natural affinity for basketball-reference, not being able to reconcile my 2019 results was the biggest motivator in changing my formula. My new formula will be much easier to handle, because it no longer averages itself with the other names in the ranking. I can simply plug in a name, plug in the numbers, and I'm done. Another nice bonus to this approach is that cross-season comparisons are more straightforward.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The minimum MVP score seems to be 23, while 26 seems to be about average. To put their current scores into perspective, that's the range that these players are racing toward. (I.e., there's a long way to go.)

For further perspective - and for fun - here are the most recent winners based on this formula. Ten of these eleven also won the actual MVP, with 2011 being the lone exception.

33.35 - LeBron James, 2009
31.30 - Stephen Curry, 2016
29.82 - LeBron James, 2013
29.81 - LeBron James, 2010
26.90 - Stephen Curry, 2015
25.76 - Kevin Durant, 2014
24.08 - Russell Westbrook, 2017
23.84 - LeBron James, 2011 (the MVP was Derrick Rose, whose score is 18.98)
23.33 - James Harden, 2018
23.06 - Giannis Antetokounmpo, 2019 (James Harden is 23.04)
22.99 - LeBron James, 2012 (the shortened season lowers his score)

At some point, I will begin a thread in the Player Comparison board that revises my results going back to around 2002, with the top twenty finishers for each season.

Awesome post. I was going to address the elephant in the room but you did a good job explaining it. By the end of the year the +/- will certainly be more accurate. Goes to show how crazy LeBron is and how good 16 Curry was.

[Ballerhogger]

33 pts 14 ast for the Lebron rolling to the lakers 8th win in row . Right now he’s front runner

Nah its Giannis and it isn't even really all that close. Lebron ran to go get help this offseason and Anthony Davis has been a candidate for DPOY as well as played at an all-NBA level.

Giannis has a case for MVP, 1st team all-NBA, and DPOY. He's literally Anthony Davis and Lebron combined.

I think LeBron is in the lead for the award. He is playing on a storied franchise in the media-mecha, has a "comeback" type narrative and is more popular than Giannis.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

They dont out hand back to back mvp awards unless one player is clearly better than the rest. Giannis doesn't have argument right now. Lebron also setting milestone records which adds to his narrative and populairty with voters. If the season ends with Lakers in 1st in the west and NBA , Lebron getting the MVP

[ken6199]

.

Curious - how did you pick those 34 players last year? You probably have mentioned it somewhere but I honestly can't recall.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

Kawhi is still the best today I think. ESPN just had a stat that said clippers have held opponents under 40% FG in 9 games which leads the league. Clippers SRS has gone from 1.09 last season to 8.64 this season. Sure Kawhi has another superstar on his team but so did Harden in 2018 when he won it.