[Goldsberry] Harden is the greatest scorer since Jordan

[kevC]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28214630/james-harden-greatest-scorer-nba-era

"Consider this: Since the beginning of the 2017-18 season, 122 NBA players have run at least 200 isolation plays, and Harden leads the way with 1.14 points per iso. The average half-court play in the NBA has only been worth 0.96 points this season, so the Rockets would be foolish not to exploit such a giant margin."

"More than two-thirds of his isos end with him taking a shot, and his 1.34 points per possession on those plays is a better mark than all but two NBA offenses this season, per Second Spectrum data. Another 13% of the time, Harden draws a foul on his isos, leading to a nearly automatic 1.72 points per possession. You can't do much better than that. An offense made up entirely of Harden isos leading to shots and fouls would average more than 140 points per game based on those scoring rates."

"He also almost always makes the right play and is more than willing to give the ball up. This season, he's creating 20.9 points per game via assists. On the 14% of iso possessions when Harden passes, Houston generates 1.19 points. One other underrated Harden edge is that he only has 12 total turnovers out of isolations all season, making up just 3% of his solo plays."

"Since the beginning of last season, Harden is averaging a mind-blowing 19.6 drives per game, and he's pretty good at it. Out of 187 players with at least 200 drives over that period, only Durant and James have been more efficient. Despite that league-leading volume, an average Harden drive yields 1.12 points -- again, a huge upgrade over an average NBA half-court chance."

That's just insane.

[Pennebaker]

Yeah, Harden is an amazing scorer, but unfortunately scoring ain't what it used to be.

Leading the league in scoring used to be highly coveted and now it isn't.

[And1+2]

Thank you, Captain Obvious.

[xdrta+]

Hero ball is back.

In the player tracking era (since 2013-14):
No team has passed the ball less frequently than the 2019-20 Rockets

[ballup]

KD readying all his burners

[No-more-rings]

For the regular season, sure probably. With postseason included, i doubt it. Lebron is almost assuredly better, then you have Kobe, Curry, KD, Shaq who'd have something to say about that.

[CptCrunch]

Goldsberry's short charts are so pretty.

He should open source his code/style sheet.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Harden is putting up those numbers in a league where 150 scoring outputs is common. He's the only scoer who makes more FTs....than FGs.

Case in point, league average was 97 ppg in 2006. Today it's 110.3

[clyde21]

Harden is the best scorer since Jordan like my little cuz is the best street fighter player because he keeps picking Ryu and spams Hadoken over and over again

[JN61]

I do agree with it.

Thing we have to note is Durant has/had all the tools to be far greater scorer than either of Jordan or Harden but he totally lacks the mentality of scorer. Durant always been a guy who has 30 points and you don't even notice it. Other players aren't close in this discussion in my opinion.

[dhsilv2]

Harden is putting up those numbers in a league where 150 scoring outputs is common. He's the only scoer who makes more FTs....than FGs.

Case in point, league average was 97 ppg in 2006. Today it's 110.3

All the stats listed are against the current league and how much of an outlier he is against his peers. So this is completely irrelevant but yes around 96 was when the league offenses started to drop off for the dark ages that were the late 90's and early 00's.

[queridiculo]

I'd like to see the points per possession numbers adjusted by foul rate and/or points fro FTAs.

[Hornet Mania]

He's the greatest since MJ, you hear that folks? That can't possibly be boring, you'll all have to start watching again now!

...Folks?

[Marty McFly]

a Healthy KD would be putting up 40 on a team without another star.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Harden is putting up those numbers in a league where 150 scoring outputs is common. He's the only scoer who makes more FTs....than FGs.

Case in point, league average was 97 ppg in 2006. Today it's 110.3

All the stats listed are against the current league and how much of an outlier he is against his peers. So this is completely irrelevant but yes around 96 was when the league offenses started to drop off for the dark ages that were the late 90's and early 00's.

Being an outlier for a season doens't make you the best scorer for a 25 year period though. I don't blame Harden, he's doing what the refs give him and that's great for Houston. But in terms of all-time scoring, his average is propped up by ridiculous foul calls. How many games have we seen harden put up 5-15 in a 1st half, while sitting on 20 points?

And the Rockets play at a 105 pace, which is the reason his scoring average is so high. 06 Kobe played at a 90.9 pace, and 87 MJ played at 95.8 pace. Pace & FTA is the big reaosn for Harden's scroing output.

[MrCheerios]

Harden is putting up those numbers in a league where 150 scoring outputs is common. He's the only scoer who makes more FTs....than FGs.

Case in point, league average was 97 ppg in 2006. Today it's 110.3

No one ever holds that against MJ. In the 86-87 season where he averaged his career high 37.1 the average team scored 109.9ppg. They handed out a lot more free throws back then too, with the average team taking 30.5 free throws vs 23.3 free throws today, although Jordan only took 11.9 per game compared to Harden's 14.4.

It's not like Houston is even particularly fast compared to the rest of the league. Last year they were 26th in pace and Harden still scored 36.1ppg taking fewer FTs (11.0) than Jordan did in his highest scoring season.

[LipSkinMatter]

Yeah, Harden is an amazing scorer, but unfortunately scoring ain't what it used to be.

Leading the league in scoring used to be highly coveted and now it isn't.

[RoLo]

this is whats wrong with analytics. guys like goldsberry will take it too far. what about KD who's done it in the playoffs and Finals? or Lebron even. his 2013 season is peak analytics and eyetest. these numbers would probably support Harden > Jordan even, when you factor in how Harden utilizes the 3, the free throw line. Is harden a better scorer than Jordan? its moneyball to the extreme.

[thebigbird]

There are other guys who could put up the points that harden does. They just aren't as shameless as him.

[dhsilv2]

Harden is putting up those numbers in a league where 150 scoring outputs is common. He's the only scoer who makes more FTs....than FGs.

Case in point, league average was 97 ppg in 2006. Today it's 110.3

All the stats listed are against the current league and how much of an outlier he is against his peers. So this is completely irrelevant but yes around 96 was when the league offenses started to drop off for the dark ages that were the late 90's and early 00's.

Being an outlier for a season doens't make you the best scorer for a 25 year period though. I don't blame Harden, he's doing what the refs give him and that's great for Houston. But in terms of all-time scoring, his average is propped up by ridiculous foul calls. How many games have we seen harden put up 5-15 in a 1st half, while sitting on 20 points?

And the Rockets play at a 105 pace, which is the reason his scoring average is so high. 06 Kobe played at a 90.9 pace, and 87 MJ played at 95.8 pace. Pace & FTA is the big reaosn for Harden's scroing output.

Again, you compare scorers relative to peers in their era. When you do that with harden is stands out just like those guys. Address the actual standing out aspects, dwelling on per game stats is just silly.

That said if you are worried about pace, we have adjusted numbers. per 100

harden - 48.3 this year (48.2 last year) 39.3 (using last year since it was a full year) +8.9
jordan - 46.4 (1987) 38.1 Niq +8.3
kobe 45.6 (2006) 39.7 Iverson +5.9

So adjusted for pace and comparing to peers, as we generally see, MJ and Harden are super close and as always Kobe seems a tier below though still certainly elite.