2019-20 Offseason Thread

[bturn2210]

I can already see the Jays ending up with a Lindblom, Pineda, Wiley, or Roark lol gonna be so disappointing and doesn't move the needle one bit..

[Schad]

There is some irony in wanting to accelerate the rebuild and pointing to the Phillies, whose accelerated rebuild saw them spend an extra $50m to finish fourth in their division and increase their win total by 1. It isn't easy to buy success no matter how splashy your signings might be, and outbidding for a player who is already getting paid above the odds is not sensible. None of the free agent pitchers to sign thus far made much sense for us at their contract length/dollar figure.

[Wo1verine]

Mitchell says no chance on Ryu and Bumgarner, Cole and Strasberg.

Lists Keuchel, Porcello, Roark, Pineda and Teheran as most realistic options.

Not sure why we can’t Ryu? seems like the perfect short term filler for Toronto.

Offer him like 2 years, $55-$60M.

[Schad]

Short-term filler makes no sense, though. If you're going to sign Ryu, it should be for three years, because the odds of us competing next season are really, really low. And ye gods giving him $30m a year for two years is the worst of all worlds.

[Wo1verine]

If you listen to Atkins, he thinks the Jays can be the 2015 Astros next season according to Mitchell on TSN.
Spending big on short term older ace could take us to the post season next year while risking very little.

Sign him for whatever money he wants and give him 3 years don’t care just pay for quality for once.

[Tanner]

I still don't understand the resistance to signing short term vets, especially those with no compensation attached. Adding good players just using money, which won't jeopardize future flexibility or cost assets/picks, is not going to hurt this team. Signing Ryu to a 3 year deal may not turn this into a playoff team in 2020, but it improves the roster, fills a spot that no one internally can/will fill, and doesn't hurt any rebuilding strategy.

The Jays literally have no financial obligations beyond Grichuk (who is front loaded), and won't have to deal with expensive free agency for Vlad/Bo/Biggio for another six years. A few short term vets here and there is only going to help this team, especially if young players develop and maybe the window accelerates organically.

[billy_hoyle]

There is some irony in wanting to accelerate the rebuild and pointing to the Phillies, whose accelerated rebuild saw them spend an extra $50m to finish fourth in their division and increase their win total by 1. It isn't easy to buy success no matter how splashy your signings might be, and outbidding for a player who is already getting paid above the odds is not sensible. None of the free agent pitchers to sign thus far made much sense for us at their contract length/dollar figure.

A couple questions for ya Schad, where do you project the Phillies to finish this year? If they make the playoffs and get ~7 WAR combined from Harper and Wheeler would you consider their contracts worth it (so far)?

[polo007]

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[Schad]

I still don't understand the resistance to signing short term vets, especially those with no compensation attached. Adding good players just using money, which won't jeopardize future flexibility or cost assets/picks, is not going to hurt this team. Signing Ryu to a 3 year deal may not turn this into a playoff team in 2020, but it improves the roster, fills a spot that no one internally can/will fill, and doesn't hurt any rebuilding strategy.

The Jays literally have no financial obligations beyond Grichuk (who is front loaded), and won't have to deal with expensive free agency for Vlad/Bo/Biggio for another six years. A few short term vets here and there is only going to help this team, especially if young players develop and maybe the window accelerates organically.

Opportunity cost. We have a set budget for next year, and we have a certain amount of remaining money to spend. There isn't very much benefit in a two-year contract, especially as Ryu isn't compensation eligible; if we aren't competitive next year, the greatest source of benefit would be in trading him, but none of those wanting to sign short-term deals want that. As such, we don't really build into our competitive window, we just go from being mediocre to slightly less mediocre. With a three-year deal, while there's more risk, there's also considerably more reward because you're far more likely to be paying him to pitch meaningful innings.

[Schad]

There is some irony in wanting to accelerate the rebuild and pointing to the Phillies, whose accelerated rebuild saw them spend an extra $50m to finish fourth in their division and increase their win total by 1. It isn't easy to buy success no matter how splashy your signings might be, and outbidding for a player who is already getting paid above the odds is not sensible. None of the free agent pitchers to sign thus far made much sense for us at their contract length/dollar figure.

A couple questions for ya Schad, where do you project the Phillies to finish this year? If they make the playoffs and get ~7 WAR combined from Harper and Wheeler would you consider their contracts worth it (so far)?

Way too early to say. And making the playoffs in the near term is basically the floor for what you need in order to make big-money, long-term deals work; you're pricing in that the later stages probably won't be great, so most of the benefits need to accrue in the earlier years.

The Phillies have a fairly talented team, but having spent $170m thus far, and with a fair number of players due significant raises in the near future, that's not a spectacular vote of confidence.

[billy_hoyle]

I still don't understand the resistance to signing short term vets, especially those with no compensation attached. Adding good players just using money, which won't jeopardize future flexibility or cost assets/picks, is not going to hurt this team. Signing Ryu to a 3 year deal may not turn this into a playoff team in 2020, but it improves the roster, fills a spot that no one internally can/will fill, and doesn't hurt any rebuilding strategy.

The Jays literally have no financial obligations beyond Grichuk (who is front loaded), and won't have to deal with expensive free agency for Vlad/Bo/Biggio for another six years. A few short term vets here and there is only going to help this team, especially if young players develop and maybe the window accelerates organically.

I think some might consider it the equivalent to an NBA treadmill move. Hurts draft position (and allotment). Money could be reallocated for a future year. Instead of Keuchel or Ryu at $20m next year in a throw away year (cuz neither of them will move the needle enough to be good next year), why not invest that money in better pitchers next year that can grow with the core? Let's take that $20m this year and bump up the Paxton and Bauer offers by $10m in the first year - so front load it. That way we get better pitchers for their early 30s years when we peak, instead of mid thirties, slightly worse pitchers at our competitive window. Rotation is:
Paxton
Bauer
Pearson
Anderson
Thorton/Wag/Kay/Borucki
+ Youngins to fill in for Anderson when he's a FA (Manoah, SWR, Kloff, 5th overall pick)
Gives nice injury depth.

Risk is you don't get anybody. Which would be very bad, hence why I woulda preferred having Wheeler or Cole or Strasburg this year. Bird in hand.

[billy_hoyle]

There is some irony in wanting to accelerate the rebuild and pointing to the Phillies, whose accelerated rebuild saw them spend an extra $50m to finish fourth in their division and increase their win total by 1. It isn't easy to buy success no matter how splashy your signings might be, and outbidding for a player who is already getting paid above the odds is not sensible. None of the free agent pitchers to sign thus far made much sense for us at their contract length/dollar figure.

A couple questions for ya Schad, where do you project the Phillies to finish this year? If they make the playoffs and get ~7 WAR combined from Harper and Wheeler would you consider their contracts worth it (so far)?

Way too early to say. And making the playoffs in the near term is basically the floor for what you need in order to make big-money, long-term deals work; you're pricing in that the later stages probably won't be great, so most of the benefits need to accrue in the earlier years.

The Phillies have a fairly talented team, but having spent $170m thus far, and with a fair number of players due significant raises in the near future, that's not a spectacular vote of confidence.

Fair enough. Are there any teams with payrolls at sub $170m you are confident will make the playoffs?

[bluerap23]

I don’t see the point in going after a #3 or #4 starter. I’d rather not have a 10-13 win starter blocking a prospect this season when we won’t compete anyway. There are enough young arms to fill out the rotation and allow for development.

[agkagk]

I can already see the Jays ending up with a Lindblom, Pineda, Wiley, or Roark lol gonna be so disappointing and doesn't move the needle one bit..

Id actually be ok with that.

I dont think it makes sense to spend money for the sake of spending money.

The hamels, coles and baumgartners of the world arent happening.

Signing guys like ryu and wheeler to 100+ million dollar contracts doesnt make much sense.

No reason why the Blue Jays immaculate brain trust cant mimic texas and minnesota and find value in the 10 million dollar range.

If we can find j.a happ 2.0 and add depth veterans to support and mentor our young core i'd be just fine with that.


Lindeblom, pineda/keuchel, tajuan walker, cesar hernandez, todd frazier and call it an off season.

... i also wouldnt mind avaisal garcia; only because I think he's crazy undervalued, young and has lots of surplus value.

1 core piece, 2 educated lottery tickets and two solid veteran presences to support our kids -- I think that would be a good off season.

Save your bullets to overspend on bauer/paxton next season and hopefully thats enough to push us into contention.


.....honestly, now that i think about it; Id be just fine with the jays dumpster diving through the dfa candidates at this point.

Is spending 30 - 50 million on pineda/keuchel better than signing blake treinen?

I mean if the jays rolled with gausman, tajuan walker, Treinen, jimmy nelson and one or two of the kids -- on paper, thats a rotation that can grow with our young core and would probably provide more output and value than putting all our eggs in the old man Ryu basket.

[polo007]

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins on his ‘aggressive’ free-agent approach, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s ‘great’ offseason, more - The Athletic

When it comes to the free-agent starting pitching market, Atkins said the Blue Jays have been “aggressive” and have checked in on players in the top, middle and lower tiers.

“There’s not a free agent that we haven’t touched base with, and we have been aggressively trying to understand every opportunity,” he said. “We’ll continue to do that.”

Asked if the Blue Jays had approval from ownership to spend $100 million or more to reach that upper tier of available players, Atkins said, “Yes, we have that flexibility.”

The Blue Jays’ financial flexibility has never really been a point of debate. As it stands, their 2020 payroll projects to be just under $64 million, per Cot’s. And as recently as 2017, the Blue Jays had an opening-day payroll of $163 million.

What remains to be seen, however, is if they actually use their financial flexibility, who they are willing to spend it on and whether they’ll opt to overspend to get a player they really like. The reality is the Blue Jays are coming off a losing season and they’re located in Canada — and whether we locals like to admit it or not, that can be a detriment for players, who have families and various lifestyle reasons to consider when deciding whether to move to and work in a new country. Significantly outbidding other teams might be necessary to lure players north.

Atkins said the Blue Jays lean more toward adding players via free agency versus a trade because of the high cost that comes with making deals, especially if the returning player has only one or two years of control.

“Giving up talent that could be paired with Vladdy and Bo (Bichette) and (Nate) Pearson and that group for a player that might only be here for one or two years is a hard thing to do,” he said. “It doesn’t mean that we won’t. It’s just the players that teams are going to want for a player (with) one or two years with contract years remaining are going to be players that we’re really excited about matching up with that young core that we have.”

In terms of their priorities, starting pitching remains No. 1, ahead of adding position players, although Atkins allowed that an exception could be made.

“We’re definitely more focussed on pitching right now, to just keep as much possible flexibility there, just based on need,” he said. “But it doesn’t mean that our next acquisition after Chase Anderson would be a pitcher. It may be a position player. We’ve been aggressive on position players, too, and trying to acquire them, and we’ll remain there.”

In terms of what the Blue Jays are looking for when it comes to starters, traits such as a track record of success, athleticism and durability top their list.

“When you are checking all of those boxes, you are at the top of rotations and you have 30 teams with interest in (them),” Atkins said. “As fewer of those boxes become checked, the acquisition cost is different.”

In an ideal world, the Blue Jays acquire guys who check all of those boxes. However, there are only so many top-of-the-rotation starters to go around — and diminishing by the day, it seems — and in chasing free agents, concessions might need to be made.

“It may be that the durability hasn’t been as good or maybe the track record hasn’t been as long,” he said. “Maybe the strikeouts aren’t as high as we would like.”

[Wo1verine]

Ross Atkins:

“There’s not a free agent pitcher that we haven’t touched base with”

Atkins checking in on 1st and 2nd tier free agent pitchers:




Someone posted that on another board thought it was hilarious!

[Natural11]

I can already see the Jays ending up with a Lindblom, Pineda, Wiley, or Roark lol gonna be so disappointing and doesn't move the needle one bit..

Id actually be ok with that.

I dont think it makes sense to spend money for the sake of spending money.

That's a curious attitude. With the second lowest guaranteed payroll, why should we be concerned about saving Rogers money in order to watch more terrible baseball? As fans, don't we want to be entertained by a decent product?

I'm all about avoiding bad contracts and overspending, but if a premiere player wants to play in Toronto and there is an abundance of cap room to make it happen, the FO should absolutely pursue it. I'd love for us to have a genuine ace like the old days and let some of the kids battle it out for the 3-4-5 spots. I doubt it will happen, but I see no reason not to want it.

We're getting these kids to play for next to nothing right now and there's a reasonable chance of the offense being above average next year with a couple of moves and continued development. Who knows what could happen if we landed a bonafide starter and some additional pitching help.

[Schad]

Because it's not about "saving Rogers money". Rogers is going to spend what Rogers is going to spend. The FO doesn't get to decide what the budget is, and neither do we. So any dollar spent on something that doesn't help us compete is a dollar that won't be available for that purpose. We should absolutely spend to be better during our competitive window, but historically the difference in attendance between various flavours of non-competitiveness are minimal.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

Thus far, most of the players signed have exceeded the MLBTR projections; Pineda's a shade under, but that's still a fairly generous deal given his suspension and injury history. FA market may not be as tight as it was last year.